Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

duffman13

seamus wrote: »

We're at 34% fully vaccinated compared to the UK's ~50%. The UK's programme has slowed considerably though, they're doing the equivalent of 16k doses a day where we're doing 40-50k.

Nevertheless, 50% is way below what's needed to lift all restrictions.

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1410135021244108803

Currently 44% with 2 doses and 67% with one. In 4 weeks, it will be 67% with two doses.

seamus

duffman13 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paulreiddublin/status/1410135021244108803

Currently 44% with 2 doses and 67% with one. In 4 weeks, it will be 67% with two doses.

Just to clarify, in terms of whole populations, we're at 34% and the UK at 50%.

In terms of eligible (adult) populations, we're at 44% and the UK are at 63%.

OwenM

duffman13 wrote: »

After looking through projections above it annoyed me so I decided to try and use their own modelling for hospitalisations, ICU and Deaths and apply current actual hospitalisation rates within the EU and UK. I have placed NPHET projections first, then modelling based on actual current rates for each scenario.

So this is NPHETs modelling taking their own case number projections and applying a 1.1% hospitalisation rate (Its currently below this and at 1% in the UK). NPHETs hospitalisation rate is working at close to 2%. 3.9% ICU rate of those hospitalisations (Current EU rate), NPHETs rate is above 10%. I couldnt find the death rate but it averages out at 1.25 times the ICU numbers (From NPHET modelling) so I used that.

No Delta Actual Optimistic Actual Central 1 Actual Central 2 Actual Pessimistic Actual
Cases 21000 21000 81000 81000 187000 187000 408000 408000 681900 681900
Hospitalisations 405 231 1530 891 3490 2057 7690 4488 12985 7501
ICU 55 9 195 35 450 80 985 175 1685 293
Death 80 11 165 43 545 100 1230 219 2170 366


The case numbers are not the issue. Its the over indexing of hospitalisation/ICU/death rates that create the panic. Cases could boom but they are basing their modelling on rates double the current rates of hospitalisation, ICU and death. Why? Surely as the vaccination levels increase the the rate of those should continue to fall further

The UK data is telling:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

Peter Flynt

Thanks for all the correcting guys.

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1410378774089187332?s=20

Wolf359f

duffman13 wrote: »

After looking through projections above it annoyed me so I decided to try and use their own modelling for hospitalisations, ICU and Deaths and apply current actual hospitalisation rates within the EU and UK. I have placed NPHET projections first, then modelling based on actual current rates for each scenario.

So this is NPHETs modelling taking their own case number projections and applying a 1.1% hospitalisation rate (Its currently below this and at 1% in the UK). NPHETs hospitalisation rate is working at close to 2%. 3.9% ICU rate of those hospitalisations (Current EU rate), NPHETs rate is above 10%. I couldnt find the death rate but it averages out at 1.25 times the ICU numbers (From NPHET modelling) so I used that.

No Delta Actual Optimistic Actual Central 1 Actual Central 2 Actual Pessimistic Actual
Cases 21000 21000 81000 81000 187000 187000 408000 408000 681900 681900
Hospitalisations 405 231 1530 891 3490 2057 7690 4488 12985 7501
ICU 55 9 195 35 450 80 985 175 1685 293
Death 80 11 165 43 545 100 1230 219 2170 366


The case numbers are not the issue. Its the over indexing of hospitalisation/ICU/death rates that create the panic. Cases could boom but they are basing their modelling on rates double the current rates of hospitalisation, ICU and death. Why? Surely as the vaccination levels increase the the rate of those should continue to fall further

How did you work out the UK hospitalisation rate?
Crude estimate based on last 7 days admissions from the preceding 7 days cases is about 2.47%

Messi19

seamus wrote: »

Just to clarify, in terms of whole populations, we're at 34% and the UK at 50%.

In terms of eligible (adult) populations, we're at 44% and the UK are at 63%.

So we're at 44%

bucketybuck

Peter Flynt wrote: »

The UK is at about 50% full vaccination. I believe Ireland is at 20%.

The UK will fully reopen on July 19th (possibly without masks) and we will do the same when we have reached that level of vaccination.

Can we get this in writing?

Or will the goalposts move again when we get to 50%?

KrustyUCC

bucketybuck wrote: »

Can we get this in writing?

Or will the goalposts move again when we get to 50%?

There's zero chance of that happening unfortunately

We cant even open indoor hospitality so it will prob be years before we'll see the UK final steps

rm212

Ger Roe wrote: »

There are more vulnerable people than than than. People with only one of the two vaccine shots are also far more vulnerable to the delta variant. Sky news reporter Enda Brady was just interviewed on Claire Byrne (RTE Radio 1)- he had one shot, is a regular marathon runner and is now floored by delta covid. He also says he was extremely careful, taking all precautions and he still caught it. He says he was doing marathon training all last week and is now out of breath walking to the bathroom.

His interview is worth a listen back.

I think you're missing the point, we're discussing hypotheticals within Nolan's own flawed numbers which he presented on Twitter, we are not saying that 25,000 people are the actual number of vulnerable people, however, that's what Nolan said there are in a scenario where a population of 500,000 vulnerable people are full vaccinated and a hypothetical vaccine with 95% efficacy.

And the use of the term vulnerable here is referring to the class of medically vulnerable people, not the literal sense of people who are vulnerable to the virus (ie. unvaccinated etc).

KrustyUCC

"Mr Donnelly told Newstalk’s Pat Kenny show that he does not understand how any member of the Cabinet could have been surprised that new advice on using the AstraZeneca vaccine for those under 40 was not included in Nphet’s modelling.

It had not been possible for Nphet to include the National Immunisation Advisory Committee (Niac)’s recommendation, as the modelling was completed over the weekend and Niac made its recommendation on Monday, he said."

Mr Donnelly should be asking how the Taoiseach could tell cabinet that was included in the model then

What a fundamental mistake from Martin

It's laughable just how inept that is

The Taoiseach selling cabinet on restrictions based on an outdated model that he didn't understand

briancoolcat

53 year old fully vaccinate healthcare worker here. I understand the delay tactic of opening up full indoor drinking and dining until we get more people fully vaccinated but the hospitality industry getting thrown under the bus at the last minute is awful. NPHET and the Government have made a hash of this again and regardless of RTEs awfully biased coverage I would love to see an independent red see pole of people's opinions now. I reckon they have lost the support of a majority of the Irish people. I feel very sorry for the businesses and the young people of this country who will close for good or are laid off permanently. I will do my bit to support the hospitality industry as soon as I am allowed. It's unfair and downright mean the way they have been treated. And you know what as much as I hate to say this the biggest winners in all this is the Sinn Fein party. They were not far off in the last election and after the latest ham fisted approach to deal with the delta variant I reckon they are a shoo in for the next one. I'll be on a one way ticket out of here then, delta or whatever the next scariant may be ☺️.

TefalBrain

All this for 40 people in hospital with Covid, 40 not 400. Absolutely ridiculous.

rob316

UK's Freedom day is the 19th

We currently have 42% fully vaxed and the Uk have 49% yet we can't even have a cup of coffee indoors.

Makes perfect sense

KrustyUCC

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1410563977898250242

Martin keeping digging

Of course it wouldn't changed anything when Martin thought the updated NIAC advice was already in the outdated model

you know what the hilarious part is?? they have dozens of highly paid ADVISORS!!!! jesus christ.. on what do they advise? red or white wine? chicken or fish??

the ineptitude is Bidenesque at this stage.

Shelga

seamus wrote: »

Not sure about the severity, but in case anyone was wondering whether Delta was actually that transmissible, since last week the UK has had more daily cases than the entire EU combined;

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2021-06-02..latest&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_cases&hideControls=true&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~European+Union

Hospital admissions in the UK are up 66% in two weeks, but one good indicator is that hospital occupancy is has only grown slowly. This suggests that the length of stay in hospital for a covid patient is considerably shorter; which would indicate a much reduced severity.

The UK of course, opened up indoor dining & boozing six weeks ago with no passport/testing requirements when they had barely 50% of the population with a first dose.

So what you're seeing now in the UK is the result of that. While we're in a better place vaccine-wise, we're far from fully covered, and it's likely that if we were to open indoors for all on the 5th, then by the end of August we too would be in a poor position, case-wise.

The vaccine rollout would flatten case numbers more considerably than in the UK, but there's certainly valid cause for alarm when you see their situation. Opening indoors right now without any kind of cert or test, is just not a reasonable solution.

So if our hospital admissions follow the UK’s, we could be looking at 66 people in hospital in two weeks, instead of 40? Truly terrifying stuff indeed, and definitely worth borrowing hundreds of millions more euro and curtailing people’s freedom to work, while abdicating any responsibility to provide an end date. Bualadh bos for Micheal!

OwenM

Shelga wrote: »

So if our hospital admissions follow the UK’s, we could be looking at 66 people in hospital in two weeks, instead of 40? Truly terrifying stuff indeed, and definitely worth borrowing hundreds of millions more euro and curtailing people’s freedom to work, while abdicating any responsibility to provide an end date. Bualadh bos for Micheal!

Terrifying

OwenM

Shelga wrote: »

So if our hospital admissions follow the UK’s, we could be looking at 66 people in hospital in two weeks, instead of 40? Truly terrifying stuff indeed, and definitely worth borrowing hundreds of millions more euro and curtailing people’s freedom to work, while abdicating any responsibility to provide an end date. Bualadh bos for Micheal!

the kelt

Ger Roe wrote: »

There are more vulnerable people than than than. People with only one of the two vaccine shots are also far more vulnerable to the delta variant. Sky news reporter Enda Brady was just interviewed on Claire Byrne (RTE Radio 1)- he had one shot, is a regular marathon runner and is now floored by delta covid. He also says he was extremely careful, taking all precautions and he still caught it. He says he was doing marathon training all last week and is now out of breath walking to the bathroom.

His interview is worth a listen back.

Isnt it amazing how they never seem to be able to find interviews with people who had COVID and were for the most part grand, no major issues despite they're being thousands of people like that

Lumen

rob316 wrote: »

UK's Freedom day is the 19th

We currently have 42% fully vaxed and the Uk have 49% yet we can't even have a cup of coffee indoors.

Makes perfect sense

Please make the effort to read at least the last couple of pages before vomiting out more incorrect stats.

seamus wrote: »

Just to clarify, in terms of whole populations, we're at 34% and the UK at 50%.

In terms of eligible (adult) populations, we're at 44% and the UK are at 63%.

Wolf359f

Shelga wrote: »

So if our hospital admissions follow the UK’s, we could be looking at 66 people in hospital in two weeks, instead of 40? Truly terrifying stuff indeed, and definitely worth borrowing hundreds of millions more euro and curtailing people’s freedom to work, while abdicating any responsibility to provide an end date. Bualadh bos for Micheal!

A 66% increase in admissions would not necessarily see an increase of 66% in the number in hospital.
There's a certain sweet spot where discharges outnumber or match admissions, so no net increase.
I'm not sure why, but throughout this pandemic the UK have always had a higher % hospitalisation figure than Ireland.

celt262

briancoolcat wrote: »

53 year old fully vaccinate healthcare worker here. I understand the delay tactic of opening up full indoor drinking and dining until we get more people fully vaccinated but the hospitality industry getting thrown under the bus at the last minute is awful. NPHET and the Government have made a hash of this again and regardless of RTEs awfully biased coverage I would love to see an independent red see pole of people's opinions now. I reckon they have lost the support of a majority of the Irish people. I feel very sorry for the businesses and the young people of this country who will close for good or are laid off permanently. I will do my bit to support the hospitality industry as soon as I am allowed. It's unfair and downright mean the way they have been treated. And you know what as much as I hate to say this the biggest winners in all this is the Sinn Fein party. They were not far off in the last election and after the latest ham fisted approach to deal with the delta variant I reckon they are a shoo in for the next one. I'll be on a one way ticket out of here then, delta or whatever the next scariant may be ☺️.

I agree that Sinn Fein will benefit from all this but as the main opposition party they have let down anyone who has voted for them with their silence.

Messi19

celt262 wrote: »

I agree that Sinn Fein will benefit from all this but as the main opposition party they have let down anyone who has voted for them with their silence.

No they haven't. Their voters voted for them for a reason. They don't need to say or do anything when the current government is doing all the work for them. Just sit back and let the cabinet destroy itself

gral6

I really hate FF and mehole after this covid mess.

munchkin_utd

Wolf359f wrote: »

<snip>throughout this pandemic the UK have always had a higher % hospitalisation figure than Ireland.

maybe the elderly irish living in the UK showing up in their hospitals and not Ireland's ??

Its probably not a massive factor on the UK side, but that Ireland managed to dump so much of its unwanted population in the 1950s-80s surely leads to less "vulnerable" in Ireland and thus less in hospital than it would otherwise have if those people now in their 70s and 80s were to have stayed.

The brits treat the irish as an ethnic minority so it should be relatively straight forward to get the stats for elderly irish dead and hospitalised in the UK

briancoolcat

Messi19 wrote: »

No they haven't. Their voters voted for them for a reason. They don't need to say or do anything when the current government is doing all the work for them. Just sit back and let the cabinet destroy itself

Nail on The Head. That is why I mentioned earlier they are a shoo in for the next election. Keep a low profile and let the current crowd lose the people which I think they have just gone and done unfortunately.

Avon8

Philip Nolan has, once again, made a complete tit of himself on twitter. This time with a basic misunderstanding of how to interpret and calculate 95% effective

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

Avon8

Avon8 wrote: »

Philip Nolan has, once again, made a complete tit of himself on twitter. This time with a basic misunderstanding of how to interpret and calculate 95% effective

https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1410320834342932483

The said thing is though, it doesn't even matter how wrong he is.

The media have already ran with it and most people that read it will believe that the vaccine doesn't fully protect you.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

The said thing is though, it doesn't even matter how wrong he is.

The media have already ran with it and most people that read it will believe that the vaccine doesn't fully protect you.

Like I said, Christian Jessen moment... one time very well respected Dr with tons of exposure and years of experience..TURNED celebrity with zero cop on..he needs a press agent like Tony needs a sabbatical..

eagle eye

celt262 wrote:

I agree that Sinn Fein will benefit from all this but as the main opposition party they have let down anyone who has voted for them with their silence.

I'm struggling to understand how a party led by somebody who attended a packed funeral in Northern Ireland in the middle of covid could benefit from anything.
Can you explain why people would see a leader like that as better than the current group of failures that are our government?