Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

If only we had followed the uk as you suggested in March Fintan. Wouldn’t it be great to be announcing delays in further opening and considering going backwards because we couldn’t wait a few more weeks

Baffling logic

The country is months ahead of Ireland reopening

The are thinking about delaying nightclubs etc next week

But you reckon they should have delayed reopening to prevent delaying reopening

Meanwhile Ireland are calling a few people standing in a big field with music playing a trial event. That would have been safe in March 2020

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Baffling logic

The country is months ahead of Ireland reopening

The are thinking about delaying nightclubs etc next week

But you reckon they should have delayed reopening to prevent delaying reopening

They were about the same ahead of us in opening as in vaccinations. Trouble is they prioritised first doses. Now they have to delay to catch up on vaccinations whereas we will have our stages in line with vaccine progress minimising risk of going backwards

bucketybuck

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But you reckon they should have delayed reopening to prevent delaying reopening

At least they are consistent, stay in lockdown to prevent lockdown has been the mantra for a long time now.

bucketybuck

bucketybuck wrote: »

At least they are consistent, stay in lockdown to prevent lockdown has been the mantra for a long time now.

What some understand is the absolute worst case for both economy and society is constantly yo-yoing in and out of restrictions and want it to be over once and for all

blackcard

blackcard wrote: »

Is it possible that a variant that is less virulent could become the dominant strain?

It's possible that a more virulent strain comes to the fore, but isn't as serious in terms of health risks.

jhegarty

blackcard wrote: »

Is it possible that a variant that is less virulent could become the dominant strain?

No , because virulence causes dominance.

What we want is a more virulent but less deadly.

jhegarty

jhegarty wrote: »

No , because virulence causes dominance.

What we want is a more virulent but less deadly.

Pity we can't make that in the lab!

jhegarty

eskimohunt wrote: »

Pity we can't make that in the lab!

That was the plot of the show "The Last Ship". They made a version of a deadly virus with no ill effects.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What some understand is the absolute worst case for both economy and society is constantly yo-yoing in and out of restrictions and want it to be over once and for all

Surely being constantly closed is worse for the economy and society…

ArthurDayne

Deleted User wrote: »

What some understand is the absolute worst case for both economy and society is constantly yo-yoing in and out of restrictions and want it to be over once and for all

A point which was made by many last year who said that a more sustainable approach was needed than yo-yoing in and out of restrictions.

bb1234567

https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/497797/south-africa-faces-more-lockdown-restrictions-as-cases-spike-report/
God you'd wonder when this will ever end for the developing world, South Africa may enter third national lockdown as another wave begins

Rayne Wooney

wadacrack wrote: »

Good thread here, hepatizations rising mainly in younger age groups.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1403423583641210880

This guy is on a mission to show that hospitalisations are rising without any narrative but the dog on the street could tell you that if case numbers are rising hospital admissions will obviously rise too? I don’t see where he is going with this unless he is purposely trying to paint a negative picture, he ignores the most relevant figure there is now, the rate of new cases that need hospital treatment.

The UK had 39,000 in hospital at it’s peak in January, there’s 1,000 in there today.

To get to 39,000 again, they would need 26,000 new cases per day from today until 31 July at the current admission rate.

1) it’ll take them 3 weeks to get to 26,000 cases per day assuming whatever local measures they are taking don’t work

2) the above I’ve completely ignored hospital discharges, so the daily case numbers needed in reality are a lot higher

3) by end of July UK will have another 24 million doses given out, +95% of adults will have a first dose and +84% second dose

4) the current death rate in the UK is 1 in 1 million


It looks mathematically impossible they they will get anywhere close to January levels again even if they do nothing from here to stop the current wave. The picture is definitely positive, I’m really sceptical of anyone who says otherwise especially those that happen to work in an industry where negativity sells.

wadacrack

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/497797/south-africa-faces-more-lockdown-restrictions-as-cases-spike-report/
God you'd wonder when this will ever end for the developing world, South Africa may enter third national lockdown as another wave begins

We an outlier alongside a few other countries with this virus atm. Much of the World is really struggling. Some in Europe.

Deeper Blue

wadacrack wrote: »

Read this, it makes perfect sense. Case numbers do matter. If their are huge numbers then a certain percentage will escape the vaccine. This is expected and modellers do account for this.


The vaccines are very on an individual level.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/delta-coronavirus-variant-believed-have-60-transmission-advantage-uk-2021-06-09/

Case numbers won't matter once everyone is vaccinated. It's very debatable that they matter now.

If Boris Johnson goes ahead and delays re-opening, I have no doubt in my mind that Tony Holohan will argue to follow suit "out of an abundance of caution".

corkie

https://twitter.com/roinnslainte/status/1403722604448555008

As of midnight, Friday 11 June, we are reporting
431*
confirmed cases of #COVID19.

22 in ICU. 58 in hospital.

*Daily case numbers may change due to future data review, validation and update.


Edit: - Further Covid-19 case increases in Limerick, Tipperary and Clare

"Covid-19 cases in Limerick jumped to 78 on Friday, a rise of 34 in 24 hours, according to figures released Saturday .....

there was also a rise in north Tipperary, from five cases on Thursday to 11 on Friday.

Eleven cases were identified in Clare between Thursday and Friday"

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1403722744592748549

Rayne Wooney

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If Boris Johnson goes ahead and delays re-opening, I have no doubt in my mind that Tony Holohan will argue to follow suit "out of an abundance of caution".

We’re already 7 weeks behind the UK, 17th of May v 5th of July.

There would be riots if that date was pushed back, it should be brought forward as things stand.

TheDoctor

It’s also 2 weeks since Tony’s shocked tweet at people out and about.

The massive spike in cases and overrun hospitals since then has been unfortunate.

petes

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

We’re already 7 weeks behind the UK, 17th of May v 5th of July.

There would be riots if that date was pushed back, it should be brought forward as things stand.

The riots would consist of the same minority of people that protested this far.

is_that_so

Deeper Blue wrote: »

Case numbers won't matter once everyone is vaccinated. It's very debatable that they matter now.

Yeah, we will very much be in a scenario of x number of people tested for a cold today!

Deeper Blue

TheDoctor wrote: »

It’s also 2 weeks since Tony’s shocked tweet at people out and about.

The massive spike in cases and overrun hospitals since then has been unfortunate.

Everyone and his dog knew there'd be zero cases as a result of the street drinkers.

The outrage over it was a complete embarrassment.

ginoginelli

petes wrote: »

The riots would consist of the same minority of people that protested this far.

Probably less even. Everything's basically open. Even those lunatics are moving on. What's left is online trolls moaning about fictitious persons who 'want to lockdown forever' or hide under the bed' . The irony is these weirdos never leave their house anyway.

shinzon

Interesting chart on the r number of the variants since wuhan 2019

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420

It's worth remembering the journey this virus is on. It has made the jump from infecting a completely different species - its closest relatives are in bats - to us. It's like you, starting a new job: you're competent, but not the finished article. The first variant was good enough to start a devastating pandemic, but now it's learning on the job.

The cleanest way of comparing the pure biological spreading power of viruses is to look at their R0 (pronounced R-naught). It's the average number of people each infected person passes a virus on to if nobody were immune and nobody took extra precautions to avoid getting infected.

That number was around 2.5 when the pandemic started in Wuhan and could be as high as 8.0 for the Delta variant, according to disease modellers at Imperial.

So, how are the variants doing it?

There are many tricks the virus could employ to get better at spreading, such as:

improving how it opens the doorway to our body's cells
surviving longer in the air
increasing the viral load so patients breathe or cough out more viruses
changing when in the course of an infection it spreads to another person

"Ultimately there are limits and there isn't a super-ultimate virus that has every bad combination of mutations," said Dr Katzourakis.

Shin

Klonker

ginoginelli wrote: »

Probably less even. Everything's basically open. Even those lunatics are moving on. What's left is online trolls moaning about fictitious persons who 'want to lockdown forever' or hide under the bed' . The irony is these weirdos never leave their house anyway.

I think the weirdos are the ones who agree with NPHET no matter what. They agreed with NPHET masks weren't helpful early on and now like to forget about that or pretend the science changed on masks.

And now they agree antigen tests are 'snake oil' even though almost every other first world country is using them and are supported to use the by their health/science advisors. We will eventually use them here too but again it will be the same, posters here will pretend they were ever against them or pretend the science changed on them too.

When we were hearing rumours inter county travel would not be allowed until late June/ early July, posters thought that was reasonable too. Then when that was surprisingly brought forward to May they agreed with that too!

I'd actually have more respect for posters who thought we should of stayed in level 5 until everyone is vaccinated because at least they have a personal view on it instead of just agreeing with whatever they are told to od, no matter how much it varies.

lukas8888

ginoginelli wrote: »

Probably less even. Everything's basically open. Even those lunatics are moving on. What's left is online trolls moaning about fictitious persons who 'want to lockdown forever' or hide under the bed' . The irony is these weirdos never leave their house anyway.

Not sure with your claim "everyhing's basically open" far from it, when we reach the point where indoor dining and drinking is open, little or no restrictions on numbers at concerts,sport,public events,unrestricted travel etc then you can say everything is basically open.

irishguy1983

Still feels as though we are far behind others across Western Europe/US in terms of opening up…Great scenes at some of the football matches in the Euro’s/French Open last night…We are just about allowed outside at the moment

Anyway not much we can do! Just grin and bear but thankfully things are better

I’d like to see proper amount of fans at a GAA match!

PowerToWait

irishguy1983 wrote: »

We are just about allowed outside at the moment

Anyway not much we can do! Just grin and bear but thankfully things are better !

I have rarely seen Dublin City as busy, where do you live, have you actually been outside lately?

PowerToWait

PowerToWait wrote: »

I have rarely seen Dublin City as busy, where do you live, have you actually been outside lately?

Thank GOD for that!

irishguy1983

PowerToWait wrote: »

I have rarely seen Dublin City as busy, where do you live, have you actually been outside lately?

Come on! You know what I mean…I get outside is very busy which is great…I was in a pub myself last night I am referring to other things like indoor dining, etc - we seem to be far behind….Anyway at least we can get outside and have a bite to eat/pint