Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016716#Comment_118016716

Once again the selective reading continues. Shameless at this stage.

Among fully vaccinated individuals of all ages, overall adjusted vaccine effectiveness estimates for COVID-19 hospital admissions were 87% (95% CI 82–91) within 1 month after being fully vaccinated, and 88% (82–92) at 5 months after full vaccination, showing no significant waning

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016740#Comment_118016740

What's definately happening?

hynesie08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016752#Comment_118016752

October 22nd.

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016737#Comment_118016737

Yes, my nan in her 90s got her booster last week

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016722#Comment_118016722

You mean your post I quoted that seems to have disappeared and mentioned none of the above?

astrofool

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016722#Comment_118016722

Still hiding your anti-vax ideas behind misreading of data I see.

Vaccinations target everyone, not just the most vulnerable as you seem to want to do, had we gone with that approach we'd be in the middle of a humanitarian crisis at the moment.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016728#Comment_118016728

What’s that got to do with your professed knowledge about what Ronan Glynn is thinking?

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015501#Comment_118015501

Ahh you are singing the same ould song all summer ! Twist and deflect.

All the high risk people were still getting second jabs when you were calling to open up this summer and remember the people who got AZ waiting for their second jabs . Not just young people . The young only started late July on first doses .

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016741#Comment_118016741

I don't know which paper you're referring to. Post the actual rates rather than adjusted ones if it has it. The waning effect is 100% consistent and certain.

Effectiveness against hospitalisation remains elevated, like I said in that post, but this is ONLY relative to unvaccinated people. It tells you nothing about the base rate of hospitalisation (I've made this point a million times but people prefer to pretend that relative risk reduction is a probability).

So as I said to you days ago, our rates of infection and death are currently higher, and remain higher, than this time last year pre-vaccination, and it is certain that we will have a seasonal spike during flu season, and as such it is certain that our hospitals will have worse overcrowding than last year.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016776#Comment_118016776

It was deleted by a mod for rudeness, I believe.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016782#Comment_118016782

No we wouldn't. And I'm not anti vax, in this thread I only ever read/cite publications by the manufacturers of the product, or government agencies.

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016789#Comment_118016789

Somebody said, in reply about relaxing restrictions, that no rational person thinks the October 22nd won't proceed as planned.

Now Ronan Glynn is clearly thinking about it.

That's all.

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016769#Comment_118016769

The relaxation of restrictions, you know, like the post you replied to saying no rational person is thinking its not happening.

Micky 32

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016741#Comment_118016741

Not to mention the huge french study:

https://twitter.com/laoneill111/status/1447709414350274560?s=21

“”The vaccines' effectiveness in combatting the

most serious symptoms of Covid did not diminish

during the five-month period of the study, they

said. The results were the same no matter whether

the patient was given the Pfizer/BioNTech,

Moderna or Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.””

hynesie08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016838#Comment_118016838

Which they aren't.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015333#Comment_118015333

It probably wouldnt matter if you gave some people a shot in both arms and legs,their immune systems are so weakened covid will get them regardless.

its like thinking we can use vaccines to defy death, we cant and the sooner we accept there are going to be heavy casualties from covid going forward the better all our mental health will be. All these yo yoing, will we wont we open up is causing some sectors huge stress, the wedding industry and live music for example, they lives are being dangled on a string, its no wonder so many young people are voting with their feet and leaving.

Its shocking that we have spent billions on covid measures since March 2020 and its not clear exactly how much extra capacity there is in the hospitals.

We appear to be in the exact same position we were in in February 2020, no actually after the cyber attack we are in a much worse position. I spoke to a health care worker today who is trying to do the job of five people, her colleagues are out sick or on anuual leave or have just resigned,we are going to have a terrible winter and you really dont want to get sick.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016812#Comment_118016812

It’s from the lancet study you “cited” and quite obviously didn’t read and are now clinging to the adjusted idea in a desperate attempt to salvage any semblance of credibility which is a fruitless exercise as this stage

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016587#Comment_118016587

Humiliation is imminent, as per usual. Self-delusion doesn't cut it in the real world.

Cork2021

operations update is out, 390 in hospitals as of 8pm tonight with 69 of those in ICU.

There’s 69 confirmed cases in the last 24 hours in hospitals. Huge discharging and possible in house infection taking the brunt of numbers

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid19-daily-operations-update-2000-13-october-2021.pdf

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016877#Comment_118016877

I said in my first post that effectiveness ostensibly remains high against hospitalisation. I didn't delete that post.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016851#Comment_118016851

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016877#Comment_118016877

Guys you're fundamentally misunderstanding what these studies are saying in the context of this conversation about hospitalisation. Most important to understand: these figures of 90% reduction do not describe a reduction in probability of infection/hospitalisation/death. Repeat, they are NOT a reduction in probability. They are relative risk reductions. If these figures were a probability, deaths would not be higher in October 2021, versus pre-vaccination October 2020, when up to 99% of adults are fully vaccinated in some counties. Deaths and hospitalisations would be ~90% lower, but they are not.

Secondly, any longitudinal study of risk that does not account for variants can now be disregarded. The Lancet study above shows why this is.

P.lane78

Why are all the studies looking 5 - 6 months after the second jab, when the expected drop off occurs after this ...why are we not using Johnson and Johnson now...the great one shot hope ...why are we not using Astra zeneca anymore , why are the Scandinavians pausing the use of moderna ....the vaccine situation is still very fluid.Hopefully version 2 of the vaccines are better and cut transmissions...its now looking like madness/ wishful thinking to consider totally scrapping restrictions anyway coming into November, with the state of the health system...just read now Stephen Donnelly is sick and isolating (albeit covid negative so far)

How are Romania getting on, isnt their rate of vaccination very low and werent we to get a million doses from them because the citizens couldnt be persuaded to put their arms out.

Has their health system collapsed, are the thousands of people dying, anyone know the situation there at the moment.

Ah_well.

If hospitalisations could just stay under 400 then surely they’d find it hard to uphold the restrictions. Unlikely they will though I guess

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016964#Comment_118016964

"Google it" to quote a phrase you used last night.

But eh not good

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/romania/

Lumen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016964#Comment_118016964

https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2021/10/10/photos-coronavirus-pandemic-fourth-covid-wave-rips-through-romania

You can use Google, right?

Goldengirl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016449#Comment_118016449

No, rising cases among unvaccinated . But it appears it's not cool to say that .

And increasing transmission then to vulnerable people who are getting less severe infections but still due to their vulnerability are needing hospitalisation , for short periods to get them over the hump , so to speak .

I think we are in for a rough winter in the health service as flu and other respiratory infections may be an issue as well this year , but apart from rolling out those boosters I don't see that extending restrictions will make much difference .

Maybe just asking at risk people to be careful until they get their booster ? And people still need to be careful and get tested if they have symptoms , and isolate until better ..that should be a given at this stage .

I can't believe that some people think it is ok at any stage not to be careful of transmitting any infectious disease , never mind Covid . Its basic really .

hotmail.com

I presume those that want a further delay will want a full restoration of the PUP back up to 350.

I can but wanted to hear from someone who actually knows what its like in Romania.

I suppose if the Romanians themselves dont care about the high death rate enough to accept a jab then no one else should care either.

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017048#Comment_118017048

Cases are rising primarily because 1) new variants, specifically Delta, 2) because of reduced restrictions, 3) because vaccination does not sufficiently prevent infection and transmission, particularly with Delta, 4) seasonality of respiratory illness. 100% of people could be vaccinated and this would still be the case.

hotmail.com

Cases are higher because of the mass testing and willingness of Irish people to get tested. They love getting tested.

PTH2009

PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY

PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY

PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY

that should be the way but nope us silly Paddy's can't be trusted and were too much of a burden on our health care system

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016802#Comment_118016802

All the high risk people were still getting second jabs when you were calling to open up this summer and remember the people who got AZ waiting for their second jabs .

That bold part is just lies I'm afraid

podgeandrodge

While I am looking forward very much to restrictions hopefully being lifted on October 22nd, with rising cases, I do think it is somewhat morally wrong that many areas of the desk based public service are being forced to return to work for some days during October and more regularly in November and December, regardless of any necessity to do so, other than that Leo & Govt. have deemed it important for political reasons.

We are still in a pandemic, and while I'm going to the pub, and pretty much trying to get back to normal, forcing people that do not want to return to the office at this time, when there is zero business need, is just forcing people to mingle unnecessarily. I don't get it, and it presumably will filter into larger case numbers in due course.

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017133#Comment_118017133

I imagine there'll be a climbdown on this. They're already extremely tentative in offices I'm in (must distance, wear masks at desks, capacity of ONE in some meeting rooms etc) so I imagine rising cases will dampen the push to return.

I’d like to say I’m surprised that it looks like the 22nd is off but I’m not. So many people predicted it and were told no, no chance, all systems go but we are dealing with an advisory body who should have been let go 2/3 months ago, and a government terrified to make a decision. All while we have about 10 different current affairs shows baying for continued restrictions every week.

The narrative been spun is bizarre but manipulative. Blame the unvaxxed to create anger and division. As if 90% of the population getting angry at the unvaxxed is going to change their minds. LOL. NPHET and the media’s ploy in this has always been to blame a subset of society (teenagers, drinkers, foreigners, students, Pubs, now the unvaxxed) - all while paying thousands to advertise on the airwaves with messages of ‘solidarity’.

I’d also question the timing. I can imagine the budget may have been framed differently if we were looking at an indefinite delay to reopening.

All in all, I can’t genuinely see an end to masks, and don’t know when our media and public will allow late bars/nightclubs to open. It mightn’t affect some of the people above who think things are great cos they go can go to the UK and the US on their holiers, but we’re not done with this til every restriction is gone. I really hope I’m wrong and come next week someone on here will be quoting my post for stupidity, I’d love it tbh, but it doesn’t take a psychic to see what’s happening at the moment with the early media kites.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118015763#Comment_118015763

I can only speak for myself here. My life is almost back to normal. If the 22nd easing gets pushed back nothing will change for me. The thing about it though is that there is a psychological burden living in a country where you know that there are restrictions. The awfulness of checkpoints and 5k travel limits are gone and for that I'm delighted. I have no interest in going to a club at 11am and staying there until 4. Full capacity at Croke Park makes no difference to me.

Yet on a deeper level the awareness that there are curtailments, that masks must remain, that yellow signs and the words 'precautions' 'social distancing' continues to be a part of everyday discourse....well its stifling at times.

None of that is meant to dismiss the health related hardships of Covid and all the lives lost. The exhaustion and of those working in particularly impacted sectors.

FintanMcluskey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017197#Comment_118017197

As if 90% of the population getting angry at the unvaxxed is going to change their minds

I often wonder at that accuracy that % of vaccinated stat, it may well be higher in Ireland

The population is estimated AFAIK, and we have an estimated population of circa 650,000 foreign nationals living in Ireland, or 12% of our population.

Staff shortages throughout low paid industries is reportedly blamed on workers returning home and not coming back to Ireland, so is our population actually significantly lower than we thought and thus the vaccination % rate higher?

Another thing to consider is that citizens of other EU countries are more vaccine hesitant than the Irish, so its likely the foreign born population here are disproportionately not vaccinated

But as you say, those who will get it, have got it got it by now and nothing will change their minds

Nyero

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016859#Comment_118016859

Yet An Taoiseach said today there are no guarantees, on foot of inputs he received from Dr. Ronan Glynn.

But you keep up your spoofing about Dáil votes and aliens.

You are quite comical at this stage.

Lollipop95

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016893#Comment_118016893

So much ado about nothing then - panic over! The media can relax now.

Amadan Dubh

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017048#Comment_118017048

We have something called an immune system to deal with these things. It's irrational to worry a lot about covid at this point or any other relatively mild respiratory illness unless you're actually in an at-risk group. Most people don't give a thought to the flu or the flu vaccine in a normal year, it's life.

hynesie08

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017238#Comment_118017238

You might want to Google the word guarantee, or point me to where he said he thinks the 22nd will be affected, whatevers easiest.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017086#Comment_118017086

I get it. If no one got tested, no one would be sick. How simple, why did no one think of this earlier

SupplyandDemandZone

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017133#Comment_118017133

If people can go to the pub they can go to the office. Time to move on.

CruelSummer

Enough from the media & medics re ‘unvaccinated’ v vaccinated. Disgraceful rhetoric & complete lies. I keep hearing of fully vaccinated people sick & quite sick with Covid. It’s like they’re trying to find a target group to blame & use as an excuse for more draconian laws re vaccine passport.

How have Waterford & Carlow such high Covid incidence rates with the highest vaccination rates?

How has Ireland such high rates in comparison to our EU counterparts when the EU countries have less vaccination uptake? None of this is making sense.

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016227#Comment_118016227

It's not a right or wrong scenario, it's being able to identity arguments to support a particular position. So far all that seems to be against Friday week is the “worrying” level of cases, this so-called wrong trajectory comment by Glynn. We have checked the other boxes in terms of October 22nd being good to go. But by just using this one metric it's not even moving the goal posts, it becomes a game of find the goal posts. 

is_that_so

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016234#Comment_118016234

It's really the hospital numbers and positivity rates that has them bothered. We also need to see if this is a trend and Martin is preparing himself to take the hit if they do decide to change the plan. It's still appalling communication though.

stephenjmcd

Anne O'Connor (HSE) on morning Ireland : " The 10% of the unvaccinated population are accounting for 50% of our admissions"

bucketybuck

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017587#Comment_118017587

50% now is it? Thats less than yesterday, good news!

And I thought over 92% of adults were vaccinated, so what 10% is she talking about? Can't be total population as that is only 74%, no?

Or are these numbers all just bullshit used to push a narrative?

stephenjmcd

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017612#Comment_118017612

I didn't see anything on admissions yesterday just the two thirds of ICU are unvaccinated.

She's talking admissions to hospital in general I believe

You'd have to ask her about the numbers, I just posted what she said this morning.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118016921#Comment_118016921

You are right to point out that its a relative risk reduction, but completely miss the implications of that.

We have 69 in ICU. 69% of whom are not vaccinated - 47 to 22. Now given 92% of the adult population are vaccinated, given the relative risk, with no vaccine you would expect us to currently have 587 people in ICU. And that is ignoring that the rate of vaccination is even higher among those most vulnerable. At peak in January we had 218 in ICU. The peak daily cases associated with the 218 peak was 6,500 in a population with no vaccine. To have 587 in ICU you would need the equivalent of 17,000 cases every day - eg. without the vaccine we would expect an additional 15,000 people to have been detected with availability of testing. Obviously this comes with assumptions and a margin of error, however it is clear, to have resulted in the relative ICU numbers we have now in vaccinated v unvaccinated, the vaccine has both significantly reduced both prevalence and severity by a huge amount.

We are slap bang in the middle of a huge wave, and you know, things are generally ok, because of the vaccines.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017612#Comment_118017612

50% - hospital, 69% ICU. The 92% was rounded to 90%. How bad.

floorpie

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118017638#Comment_118017638

but completely miss the implications of that.

I believe you are, because you're talking about a hypothetical alternate reality that does not exist.

The fact is that the base rate of infection and hospitalisation is going UP because of Delta and reduced restrictions. Vaccination is obviously somewhat protective against hospitalisation, but it is NOT adequately protective against infection and transmission, and as such, the "somewhat" in "somewhat protective against hospitalisation" becomes a big issue as it is spreading to everybody.

It is for this reason that we're at higher numbers for infection, hospitalisation, death, now than at this time last year, when zero people were vaccinated.

Focussing on vaccinated versus unvaccinated is a complete red herring, this is not the issue. If it was, we would expect hospitalisation to have scaled down proportionally with vaccination (i.e. it'd be ~75% lower than this point last year pre-vaccination), but it has not.