Dublin Bay South By-Election

AndrewJRenko

Blut2 wrote: »

Being parachuted into multiple different constituencies, having done no local work as a county councillor, is the exact opposite of what someone from a "small party" should be doing. Smaller parties rely even more on local support bases loyal to an individual than the nationally strong parties that can rely on party brand name.

(though calling Labour a "smaller party" is a bit of a stretch historically)

The number of Trinity graduates, much less ones that have heard of her, much less ones that have heard of her and like her is a tiny tiny proportion of the electorate, even in DBS. Its not a reliable voting bloc, as has been show in her previous electoral performance.

Perhaps the people who are members of smaller parties and have lived through these scenarios many times might know a bit better about how to go about these things than those who don't?

I'd be a fiver that she got more Seanad votes in DBS that the local Labour councillor got in the last local elections.

Blut2

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Perhaps the people who are members of smaller parties and have lived through these scenarios many times might know a bit better about how to go about these things than those who don't?

I'd be a fiver that she got more Seanad votes in DBS that the local Labour councillor got in the last local elections.

The members of other smaller parties seem to know just fine, considering thats how they do it and usually successfully get elected?

Dermot Lacey won 1,790 first preference votes in Pembroke in the 2019 local elections for Labour. All voters in one small part of DBS.

Ivana Bacik won 3,498 first preferences in the Seanad elections in 2020. From voters across the the entire country.

So unless well over half of Bacik's votes came exclusively from DBS I'll take that fiver. Paypal? Or a donation to a charity would be nice either.

AndrewJRenko

Blut2 wrote: »

The members of other smaller parties seem to know just fine, considering thats how they do it and usually successfully get elected?

Dermot Lacey won 1,790 first preference votes in Pembroke in the 2019 local elections for Labour. All voters in one small part of DBS.

Ivana Bacik won 3,498 first preferences in the Seanad elections in 2020. From voters across the the entire country.

So unless well over half of Bacik's votes came exclusively from DBS I'll take that fiver. Paypal? Or a donation to a charity would be nice either.

Other smaller parties like the Greens who parachuted Eamonn in DBS when things weren't working out in Dublin Rathdown where he actually lives?

Fair cop re Lacey though. I was thinking more about young Donoghue chap.

Name your charity.

Blut2

Fair play. I've always been partial to helping animals, so the DSPCA would be great: https://www.dspca.ie/donation

expectationlost

remember when Labour ran Lorraine Mulligan in Dublin-West

KevRossi

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Other smaller parties like the Greens who parachuted Eamonn in DBS when things weren't working out in Dublin Rathdown where he actually lives?

Fair cop re Lacey though. I was thinking more about young Donoghue chap.

Name your charity.

Ryan lives (literally) on the border of DBS and Dublin Rathdown. He would have been re-elected in Rathdown, but they made the decision to run Catherine Martin there instead.

Martin doesn't live there, but has been teaching there for a good few years and did a lot of groundwork in the area before being elected councillor in 2014.

Ryan decided to run in DBS after John Gormley retired from politics to give Martin space. He used to live in Ranelagh, and was a councillor for Rathmines but lives in Milltown now.

JPup

He went to school in the area too. Lived here all his life. You can’t call Eamon Ryan a blow in whatever else you might want to call him!

AndrewJRenko

KevRossi wrote: »

Ryan lives (literally) on the border of DBS and Dublin Rathdown. He would have been re-elected in Rathdown, but they made the decision to run Catherine Martin there instead.

Martin doesn't live there, but has been teaching there for a good few years and did a lot of groundwork in the area before being elected councillor in 2014.

Ryan decided to run in DBS after John Gormley retired from politics to give Martin space. He used to live in Ranelagh, and was a councillor for Rathmines but lives in Milltown now.

His address is Clonskeagh, not Milltown, and he's lived there for quite a few years now. I'm not arguing with the decision. I'm just pointing out that Labour isn't the only party to move people around when it suits. Paul Murphy didn't have a whole lot of Tallaght heritage when we moved to DSW.

JPup wrote: »

He went to school in the area too. Lived here all his life. You can’t call Eamon Ryan a blow in whatever else you might want to call him!

Bacik went to school in DBS too, but that didn't stop the masses jumping down her throat with parachute claims.

Blut2 wrote: »

Fair play. I've always been partial to helping animals, so the DSPCA would be great: https://www.dspca.ie/donation

Feckers, minimum donation was a bit more than a fiver, but they do good work there.

L1011

Bacik *lives* in DBS - the parachute claims were about her two previous Dail elections which were not DBS.

Blut2

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Feckers, minimum donation was a bit more than a fiver, but they do good work there.

You can actually select 'other' and put in a fiver (in-case anyone else is tempted to donate too) as the amount, I checked that before linking to make sure. But great work all the same - I'm sure it'll be spent well!

Larbre34

This conversation reminds me that we should have a national legislature that does not draw its members by geographical area and is not beholden to the parish pump of that area either. I would just as soon have the best people for the job concerned only with running the Country as a whole.

I realise I'm being more than a bit naive.

expectationlost

Larbre34 wrote: »

This conversation reminds me that we should have a national legislature that does not draw its members by geographical area and is not beholden to the parish pump of that area either. I would just as soon have the best people for the job concerned only with running the Country as a whole.

I realise I'm being more than a bit naive.

having a politician living or having some strong connection (working or having lived there for a significant period of time) to the are they represent is a perfectly reasonable expectation and is not parish pump, parish pump goes beyond that to ignoring national issues in favour of servicing small local cliques.

AndrewJRenko

L1011 wrote: »

Bacik *lives* in DBS - the parachute claims were about her two previous Dail elections which were not DBS.

Not really.

"Maybe it'll be 5th time lucky being parachuted into a 5th different constituency.... but I'd just personally rather see someone a bit more electable, with a bit less baggage, on the Labour ticket."

AndrewJRenko

Larbre34 wrote: »

This conversation reminds me that we should have a national legislature that does not draw its members by geographical area and is not beholden to the parish pump of that area either. I would just as soon have the best people for the job concerned only with running the Country as a whole.

I realise I'm being more than a bit naive.

Would the list system used around Europe address this?

Larbre34

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Would the list system used around Europe address this?

I'd be all for that, 100%.

But I don't underestimate how much of a difficult sell it would be both to the people and the Parties. Turkey's voting for Christmas is a rare sight and folk particularly in rural constituencies equate local representation with TDs. This wil not easily change.

I would go the whole hog and beef up local Government to maybe 7 or 8 Regional Authorities with huge autonomy for investment and development, including full time assembly members and so on. This would leave a list system Dáil to focus on national competencies.

For anyone interested, the Scottish Parliament hybrid system is worth learning about.

El Tarangu

expectationlost wrote: »

having politician living or having some strong connection to the are they represent is a perfectly reasonable expectation

But why? Sure if someone is running on a party ticket, it's the same in Clontarf as it is in Clonakilty.

timmyntc

El Tarangu wrote: »

But why? Sure if someone is running on a party ticket, it's the same in Clontarf as it is in Clonakilty.

They are your local representative - so it's seen to be better if they actually are local - that way they have a vested interest in representing your constituency at the national level, rather than just doing it for a job or looking for a payout.

L1011

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Would the list system used around Europe address this?

List system removes the ability to vote out a specific party rep while voting for that party - as done by FG voters selecting Madigan over Shatter for instance.

We've had 9 seat constituencies before, probably about the right size!

Capt'n Midnight

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Would the list system used around Europe address this?

But then the party faithful get first dibs regardless of competence. That's how Nigel Farage gets elected. List system in a 10 seater. Less popular than a dolphin in a single seater running for a party that couldn't organise a pissup in a gin distillery.


In the UK most seats are safe seats , it's not good for democracy IMHO as the are only answerable to the party.
MPs are not chosen by 'the people' - they are chosen by their local constituency parties: thirty-five men in grubby raincoats or thirty-five women in silly hats.
- Yes Minister

In Ireland it would have been smoke filled rooms.

Here and in the UK people can serve in the upper house without having to be elected so that backup already exists.

Larbre34

El Tarangu wrote: »

But why? Sure if someone is running on a party ticket, it's the same in Clontarf as it is in Clonakilty.

Evidently, it absolutely is not.

Urban v rural, liberal v conservative, wealthy v deprived. Within the larger parties all of these arguments take place to some extent and end up informing policy, sometimes compromised to the point of useless.

I'm not saying thats not democratic, but a Jim O'Callaghan is not the same as a Marc McSharry, a Varadkar not the same as a Michael Ring. In fact you often hear tales of TDs working cross party more effectively than within their own, due to both boundary scraps and policy differences.

blackwhite

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Would the list system used around Europe address this?

The only way it would really work would be if greater powers were devolved to local government; possibly involving the amalgamation of county/city councils into more regional local governments also (I can already imagine the parochial bollockology that would kick up around that :pac:)

Our central Government has a significant amount of involvement in local services/issues and that means that TDs can, and do, have a lot of scope to influence local matters that really should fall under the scope of a proper local government.

Until we get away from TDs having that sort of local role, people are always going to want to have a "local" TD in the Dáil.

El Tarangu

timmyntc wrote: »

They are your local representative - so it's seen to be better if they actually are local - that way they have a vested interest in representing your constituency at the national level, rather than just doing it for a job or looking for a payout.

This is 'parish pump' by any other name.

I don't want to drag the thread any further off-topic, but the fact that intelligent, reasonable people in this thread were discussing seriously the impact of being from Clonskeagh Vs Milltown would have on the leader of government party's re-election chances is borne from the ultra-parochial political culture we have in Ireland.

The result being that deputies spend time on going to funerals and fixing potholes, etc. that should instead be spent on things like the housing crisis, climate change, economic development, etc.

timmyntc

El Tarangu wrote: »

This is 'parish pump' by any other name.

I don't want to drag the thread any further off-topic, but the fact that intelligent, reasonable people in this thread were discussing seriously the impact of being from Clonskeagh Vs Milltown would have on the leader of government party's re-election chances is borne from the ultra-parochial political culture we have in Ireland.

The result being that deputies spend time on going to funerals and fixing potholes, etc. that should instead be spent on things like the housing crisis, climate change, economic development, etc.

All politics is local.
Would you rather vote for an MEP from France who is just running in Ireland, or would you vote for an Irish person who lives in the constituency?

Larbre34

timmyntc wrote: »

All politics is local.
Would you rather vote for an MEP from France who is just running in Ireland, or would you vote for an Irish person who lives in the constituency?

I'd vote for the better candidate. I elect locals to County Council to deal with local issues.

One of Germany's highest profile and most influential MEPs is Scotsman David McAllister.

expectationlost

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'd vote for the better candidate. I elect locals to County Council to deal with local issues.

One of Germany's highest profile and most influential MEPs is Scotsman David McAllister.

who was born and lives in Berlin

expectationlost

El Tarangu wrote: »

This is 'parish pump' by any other name.

I don't want to drag the thread any further off-topic, but the fact that intelligent, reasonable people in this thread were discussing seriously the impact of being from Clonskeagh Vs Milltown would have on the leader of government party's re-election chances is borne from the ultra-parochial political culture we have in Ireland.

The result being that deputies spend time on going to funerals and fixing potholes, etc. that should instead be spent on things like the housing crisis, climate change, economic development, etc.

you are trying so overly hard to be against "parish pump politics" that you can't recognise the politicians should be connected to people, and one of those ways is by living or working etc in the same place as the people you represent. (you could argue for large constituencies,fewer TDs if you wish before moving to a list system)



Urban TDs can recognise issues in their local area that other urban TDs also face and work with them to deal with those issues at national level if thats where the problem can be addressed ( or they can pass it onto councillors to deal with a council level). They can also work with other TDs or their party to deal with national issues. Its not mutually exclusive as you try to paint it.

Jizique

expectationlost wrote: »

who was born and lives in Berlin

Yes, he was even minister president of Lower Saxony for a few years

gmisk

https://twitter.com/GeogheganCllr/status/1397136306417934339?s=19

Geoghegan rightfully getting annihilated over this tweet

RandomViewer

gmisk wrote: »

https://twitter.com/GeogheganCllr/status/1397136306417934339?s=19

Geoghegan rightfully getting annihilated over this tweet

Do you think he has enough icons after his Name?

Larbre34

I don't know who is advising Geoghegan but they need to be fired to salvage anything.

gmisk

Larbre34 wrote: »

I don't know who is advising Geoghegan but they need to be fired to salvage anything.

I think Simon Harris is leading his campaign....it's not as if he has anything else to do....

L1011

Conroy is having to defend her comments over maternity leave

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dublin-bay-south-candidate-deirdre-conroy-denies-questioning-need-for-maternity-leave-jmx93thn7

coylemj

gmisk wrote: »

Geoghegan rightfully getting annihilated over this tweet

Might have been a response by him to attempts on Twittter to label him as 'pro life'.

Because his earlier association with Lucinda and Renua makes him an easy target for political smears. Which are flying all over the place on Twitter.

And he's being used as a proxy target for anti-Leo tweets. No prizes for guessing who is behind that campaign.

AndrewJRenko

L1011 wrote: »

Conroy is having to defend her comments over maternity leave

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dublin-bay-south-candidate-deirdre-conroy-denies-questioning-need-for-maternity-leave-jmx93thn7

Conroy has more than a few skeletons in the cupboard that she'll find herself defending over the campaign.

coylemj wrote: »

Might have been a response by him to attempts on Twittter to label him as 'pro life'.

Because his earlier association with Lucinda and Renua makes him an easy target for political smears. Which are flying all over the place on Twitter.

And he's being used as a proxy target for anti-Leo tweets. No prizes for guessing who is behind that campaign.

Just about everybody, except his own FG faction? He's managed to alienate just about everybody - cyclists and sustainable travel - repeal - half of FG.

Larbre34

He's still a clear favourite to top the poll. Most of whats described there will actually gain him as many votes in DBS as lose them. He's probably quite transfer toxic though so he'll be up against it late in the count.

Blut2

The more that comes out about him the more he seems quite a weak candidate. Especially compared to Kate O'Connell. The FG brand name is probably strong enough in DBS to get him across though.

If Hazel Chu hadn't burnt her bridges with her Seanad debacle/not being a team player in general for the Greens, and she was running with full party support, she probably would have had a real chance at sneaking the seat on late count transfers against him.

Breezer

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Just about everybody, except his own FG faction? He's managed to alienate just about everybody - cyclists and sustainable travel - repeal - half of FG.

Why did he say anything about this issue? Pro-Repeal people were always going to call him out on it. Anti-Repeal people will view it as spineless and not owning his own opinions. Credit to Lucinda, she stood by her beliefs. As does Kate O’Connell.

What did he say about cycling and sustainable travel?

AndrewJRenko

Breezer wrote: »

What did he say about cycling and sustainable travel?

He said sustainable travel is great and really important, a few weeks after he voted against trialling the Sandymount cycle route.

Sam Russell

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

He said sustainable travel is great and really important, a few weeks after he voted against trialling the Sandymount cycle route.

That Sandymount Cycle Way is a major concern of the locals around Sandymount and Ballsbridge. It will sway many voters around the east side of the constituency - it is the home owners and residents in the leafy areas that would be FG voters who are apoplectic over this.

Sustainable travel, but not for us just yet. A bit like Eamonn Ryan being against the Green Line Metrolink extension but in favour of public transport and Metrolink - but not against his voters wishes.

AndrewJRenko

Sam Russell wrote: »

That Sandymount Cycle Way is a major concern of the locals around Sandymount and Ballsbridge. It will sway many voters around the east side of the constituency - it is the home owners and residents in the leafy areas that would be FG voters who are apoplectic over this.

Sustainable travel, but not for us just yet. A bit like Eamonn Ryan being against the Green Line Metrolink extension but in favour of public transport and Metrolink - but not against his voters wishes.

I wouldn't go making huge assumptions about who supports what on the ground.. There's lots of locals who would be very happy to have safe cycle routes for themselves and their families. The sky hasn't fallen in for people who live on the DLR coastal mobility route.

The issue for yer man is yet another front of his hypocrisy being exposed.

wowy

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

I wouldn't go making huge assumptions about who supports what on the ground.. There's lots of locals who would be very happy to have safe cycle routes for themselves and their families.

Tells poster not to make assumptions about the local residents, and then promptly makes assumption about the local residents. While also accusing the candidate of hypocrisy.

AndrewJRenko

wowy wrote: »

Tells poster not to make assumptions about the local residents, and then promptly makes assumption about the local residents. While also accusing the candidate of hypocrisy.

Do I need to spell out the hypocrisy of claiming to support sustainable travel while opposing the local facility for sustainable travel?

wowy

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Do I need to spell out the hypocrisy of claiming to support sustainable travel while opposing the local facility for sustainable travel?

I was pointing out your own hypocrisy.

Sam Russell

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

I wouldn't go making huge assumptions about who supports what on the ground.. There's lots of locals who would be very happy to have safe cycle routes for themselves and their families. The sky hasn't fallen in for people who live on the DLR coastal mobility route.

The issue for yer man is yet another front of his hypocrisy being exposed.

I live locally to tis project and know there is local opposition - not because it is a project offering improved cycling infrastructure, but because it interferes with the local traffic - just like Dunville Ave did for Metrolink.

There are local fundraising for the court case.

Larbre34

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

I wouldn't go making huge assumptions about who supports what on the ground.. There's lots of locals who would be very happy to have safe cycle routes for themselves and their families. The sky hasn't fallen in for people who live on the DLR coastal mobility route.

The issue for yer man is yet another front of his hypocrisy being exposed.

Those assumptions can absolutely be made.

We know there were a huge number of submissions to the City Council consultations on the plans, from people outside the area (all over the Country in fact) and wedded to the vocal cycling lobby. This doesn't reflect the level of local opposition.

The comparisons between the Strand Road proposals and the Dun Laoghaire co-called coastal mobility route are false for many reasons. The DL project has suitable alternative routes and is located on a route which serves Dun Laoghaire Harbour, itself no longer active in any commercial sense. Therefore the impact is bearable (at least until economic activity returns to normal).

However, the Strand Road /Beach Road proposal from Merrion Gates interferes with a major economic route in the City, serving the east link bridge and the southern section of Dublin Port. It will also serve massive new housing development on the Glass Bottle factory site and on Poolbeg.

The current Court case objecting the lack of proper planning by the City Council is scheduled for the last week of June. The by-election won't be held before then, but if the Court rules in favour of the City Council (unlikely in my view) it will certainly galvanise votes in favour of candidates who oppose the project, in Sandymount, Ringsend and Ballsbridge.

KevRossi

I only know two people living in Sandymount, living in different ends of it, they say traffic in the 'village' is chronic, most of it a permanent traffic jam populated by angry drivers, each one with the belief that they are more important then the other. They welcome any attempt to change it. But there's the same group who oppose any change, or any initiative to change the present situation.

Anyway, in other news, Roderic O'Gorman is the GP election manager. They'll decide next week if Claire Byrne or Hazel Chu will run for them.

https://twitter.com/CByrneGreen/status/1397821556714258437

KevRossi

..And James Geoghan is still putting his foot in it, using the HSE logo on election literature. When he's not allowed to. His excuse is that he was ignorant of the law, so he won't do it again. And he's a solicitor.

D4 will definitely vote him in at this rate.



https://twitter.com/OConnorOisin/status/1396740689896087553

JPup

Sam Russell wrote: »

I live locally to tis project and know there is local opposition - not because it is a project offering improved cycling infrastructure, but because it interferes with the local traffic - just like Dunville Ave did for Metrolink.

There are local fundraising for the court case.

People get so exercised about Dunville Avenue and it's such a joke. A minor back road holding up a metro extension of major significance for the whole south side of the city. But when your neighbours are Michael McDowell and a rake of the great and the good of Irish society, it's amazing what you can get away with.

expectationlost

‘Voice for generation locked out of housing market’ Fine Gael candidate lives in €730,000 house in different constituency https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/voice-for-generation-locked-out-of-housing-marketfine-gaelcandidatelives-in-730000-house-in-different-constituency-40476714.html

he lives in Clonskeagh half of Clonskeagh is in DBS, so half of his village is in DBS..

he says he never said he lives in Ranelagh but keeps giving the impression that he does https://twitter.com/GeogheganCllr/status/1393618714269032451

https://twitter.com/wereontheditch/status/1397457818563850243
seems the website was changed
https://twitter.com/wereontheditch/status/1397457823148265472

https://web.archive.org/web/20210517113813/https://dublin-bay-south.finegael.ie/#section-about
used to say

James is married to his wife Claire who grew up in Sandymount. They live now in Ranelagh with their two young children Hugh (3) and Harry (1).

at the bottom.


Did he live at the address he gave on his nomination papers when he ran for the council? https://web.archive.org/web/20190524172735/http://www.dublincity.ie/sites/default/files/content/YourCouncil/LocalElections/LocalElections2019/City%20WIde%20Nomination%20List.xlsx

AndrewJRenko

Sam Russell wrote: »

I live locally to tis project and know there is local opposition - not because it is a project offering improved cycling infrastructure, but because it interferes with the local traffic - just like Dunville Ave did for Metrolink.

There are local fundraising for the court case.

I didn't suggest that there wasn't any opposition. The assumption that everyone, or even most, oppose the new facility has no basis.