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Dublin Bay South By-Election

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Comments

  • #2


    The idea of a Creighton comeback is intriguing. Was going to say that too many bridges have been burned, but a.) it was a long time ago and b.) the abortion issue (which is what she left Fine Gael about) is long settled.

    Chu is a bit of a Bovril candidate. People either love her or hate her. My impression though, and this is solely going by commentary online, is that the people who hate her would be unlikely to have voted for the Greens anyway.

    GP #1 preference voter here (though in hindsight given what transpired after the election, I wish I hadn't), can't stand Hazel Chu. Her antics the past few months have been fairly outrageous and blatantly self-serving at the expense of her own party.


  • #2


    I would think Ivana Bacik is hard to beat. She will gather a lot number 1's and will get bag loads of transfers. A lot of folks like her and she will up a lot of "lending her their vote" [what is the expression, can't think of how to word it right..]

    Any other area I would say Sinners romp home - but not that part of South Dublin

    She will gather a strong No 1 vote but very few No 2s. She is very Marmite. You either love her and think she is so amazing and woke. Or you think she is a whiney moaning upper class pain in the ass. She could we'll be in the top 2-3 after the first count but will stall and go out in the 3rd or 4th count as others pass her out.


  • #2


    I would think Ivana Bacik is hard to beat. She will gather a lot number 1's and will get bag loads of transfers. A lot of folks like her and she will up a lot of "lending her their vote" [what is the expression, can't think of how to word it right..]

    Any other area I would say Sinners romp home - but not that part of South Dublin

    She has ran in several Dail elections and failed to get elected each time.

    Labour supposed to be a party of the working class. The topics she chooses to highlight don't exactly excite the working class.

    If she gets selected by Labour, it shows that the party hasn't moved on since 2016.


  • #2


    glasso wrote: »
    Leo hates Kate O'Connell with a vengeance since she gobbed off a bit too much during the FG leadership vote process where she was up for Coveney.

    He went out of his way on a number of occasions to ensure that she didn't get near a Seanad seat since she lost out in the last election.

    If he has his wish he'd want someone else up as the FG candidate. He doesn't want her back in the Dail.

    FG HQ love her though. They dropped her sister into Tipperary for the last election purely on the basis that she was Kate's sister and wouldn't the people of Tipperary be lucky to have such a trendy Dublin girl looking out for them in the Dail. It nearly caused a riot at the convention when it was announced. They rejected her and HQ still stubbornly added Kate's sister to the ticket ultimately splitting the vote and costing them a seat. If HQ were that determined to put Kate's sister in the Dail I'd say it's almost certain Kate herself will get the nod from HQ.

    However Kate is Maria Bailey's bestie so it's likely Swing gate will feature high in Kate's opponents arsenal even though she wasn't with Maria that night.


  • #2


    It's highly likely to be won by Fine Gael, judging by the constituency profile. SF or FF are extremely unlikely to get anywhere near enough votes. Chu and Basik if they are chosen are marmite candidates unlikely to get enough transfers, the former has damaged her reputation during the recent Seaned elections.


  • #2


    touts wrote: »
    FG HQ love her though. They dropped her sister into Tipperary for the last election purely on the basis that she was Kate's sister and wouldn't the people of Tipperary be lucky to have such a trendy Dublin girl looking out for them in the Dail. It nearly caused a riot at the convention when it was announced. They rejected her and HQ still stubbornly added Kate's sister to the ticket ultimately splitting the vote and costing them a seat. If HQ were that determined to put Kate's sister in the Dail I'd say it's almost certain Kate herself will get the nod from HQ.

    However Kate is Maria Bailey's bestie so it's likely Swing gate will feature high in Kate's opponents arsenal even though she wasn't with Maria that night.

    KOC dropped Bailey quicker than a hot snot

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/de-profiled-fine-gael-td-kate-oconnell-removes-facebook-photo-featuring-friend-maria-bailey-minutes-after-rte-interview-38158971.html

    swing-gate will not be brought up because she had nothing to do with it


  • #2


    touts wrote: »
    FG HQ love her though. They dropped her sister into Tipperary for the last election purely on the basis that she was Kate's sister and wouldn't the people of Tipperary be lucky to have such a trendy Dublin girl looking out for them in the Dail. It nearly caused a riot at the convention when it was announced. They rejected her and HQ still stubbornly added Kate's sister to the ticket ultimately splitting the vote and costing them a seat. If HQ were that determined to put Kate's sister in the Dail I'd say it's almost certain Kate herself will get the nod from HQ.

    However Kate is Maria Bailey's bestie so it's likely Swing gate will feature high in Kate's opponents arsenal even though she wasn't with Maria that night.

    KOC is not from Dublin. She's from Westmeath.


  • #2


    factnee wrote: »
    KOC is not from Dublin. She's from Westmeath.

    Shhhh. She's done her best for years not to let the people on Dublin know she's a culchie.


  • #2


    rdwight wrote: »
    Without being in the party I know of at least six Green voters, three in DBS, who wouldn't vote for her because of her grandstanding during week Climate Action Bill was launched.
    most green party voters don't care if she swallowed media coverage for the launch of a bill, its the content of the bill that counts not the launch week.


  • #2


    most green party voters don't care if she swallowed media coverage for the launch of a bill, its the content of the bill that counts not the launch week.

    The launch week is of huge importance as this was the Greens chance to tell everyone what they've been doing.

    Being able to have the media cover your bill is really important as they can reassure their existing voters that they're doing what they said they would, while also trying to convince those that didn't vote for them that they are a credible party with something real to offer.

    Right now though when you hear Green Party the first thing that comes to mind is the mess they have been post election. It will cost them votes and probably seats next time out, you can be sure.


  • #2


    factnee wrote: »
    KOC is not from Dublin. She's from Westmeath.

    And her sister is a farmer in Tipperary, not a hint of Dublin off her either.


  • #2


    awec wrote: »
    The launch week is of huge importance as this was the Greens chance to tell everyone what they've been doing.

    Being able to have the media cover your bill is really important as they can reassure their existing voters that they're doing what they said they would, while also trying to convince those that didn't vote for them that they are a credible party with something real to offer.

    Right now though when you hear Green Party the first thing that comes to mind is the mess they have been post election. It will cost them votes and probably seats next time out, you can be sure.


    you are reffering about whats important to some green party members not green party voters


  • #2


    golfball37 wrote: »
    And her sister is a farmer in Tipperary, not a hint of Dublin off her either.

    She's a vet. Does anyone on this forum check their facts?


  • #2


    touts wrote: »
    Shhhh. She's done her best for years not to let the people on Dublin know she's a culchie.

    To be fair that's not true. The second she opens her mouth you know she's a culchie and has never attempted to acquire that stupid affected Dort accent.


  • #2


    factnee wrote: »
    She's a vet. Does anyone on this forum check their facts?

    She’s also a dairy farmer. I can’t answer your question btw


  • #2


    blackwhite wrote: »
    ..a very diverse constituency. It has some of the most affluent neighbourhoods in Dublin, but also has sizeable traditionally working class areas like Ringsend,

    ..in Dublin 4
    blackwhite wrote: »
    Irishtown
    Also in Dublin 4
    blackwhite wrote: »
    & Pearse St.

    Again, in Dublin 4. Well, partly.

    factnee wrote: »
    To be fair that's not true. The second Kate O'Connell opens her mouth you know she's a culchie and has never attempted to acquire that stupid affected Dort accent.

    And contrary to popular opinion that wouldn't play in proletarian Dublin 4 at all. It's amazing how Joe Soap an area much of it is. Whatever the Culchie Commentariat in the Main Stream Media says. :D


  • #2


    ..in Dublin 4


    Also in Dublin 4



    Again, in Dublin 4. Well, partly.




    And contrary to popular opinion that wouldn't play in proletarian Dublin 4 at all. It's amazing how Joe Soap an area much of it is. Whatever the Culchie Commentariat in the Main Stream Media says. :D

    I'm well aware of the geography of the constituency, having lived in it for many years. I never made any mention of D4 (or D6 or D2 for that matter) so I'm not sure what point you are trying to make?

    The working class areas are still only a small part of the D4 postcode, and their votes are normally well outweighed by the more affluent areas such as Sandymount, Donnybrook and then into D6 for Ranelagh etc.
    In a normal 3-seat election there's typically enough votes for one "working class" candidate to take a seat, but those voters will always be outnumbered by the more affluent areas when it comes to a single-seat bye-election.



    * and BTW - Pearse St is Dublin 2, not Dublin 4. It ends at Grand Canal Bridge (which is also the boundary between D2 and D4) and east of that is Ringsend Rd.


  • #2


    Its a four seater... the 'working class vote' is even smaller when you consider that.


  • #2


    Do candidates for the by election actually have to live in the constituency?

    I get it makes sense for them to do so, but is there an actual law (like in the UK) that to stand as a candidate in a constituency you have to have an address within the constituency?


  • #2


    schmittel wrote: »
    Do candidates for the by election actually have to live in the constituency?

    I get it makes sense for them to do so, but is there an actual law (like in the UK) that to stand as a candidate in a constituency you have to have an address within the constituency?

    You don't need to live there or hold an address there.


  • #2


    schmittel wrote: »
    I get it makes sense for them to do so, but is there an actual law (like in the UK) that to stand as a candidate in a constituency you have to have an address within the constituency?
    When did the UK bring that in? Far as I am aware only the nominators have to be within the constitiency..


  • #2


    schmittel wrote: »
    Do candidates for the by election actually have to live in the constituency?

    I get it makes sense for them to do so, but is there an actual law (like in the UK) that to stand as a candidate in a constituency you have to have an address within the constituency?

    No, in Ireland constituency boundaries change often, and even change names. So the candidate could live in the constituency but in the next election, it may have changed from a 5 seater to two three seaters, or from three seater to a larger four seater, or even a tranche of voters moved to or from a constituency. A candidates support base could be halved and split between constituencies.

    All makes for politics being a blood sport.


  • #2


    schmittel wrote: »
    Do candidates for the by election actually have to live in the constituency?

    I get it makes sense for them to do so, but is there an actual law (like in the UK) that to stand as a candidate in a constituency you have to have an address within the constituency?

    Mark Durkan stood for FG in Dublin a couple of years ago, pretty sure he wasn't living there.


  • #2


    You don't have to live in the constituency, nor hold and address there. Some candidates run in multiple constituencies in each election. Peter Casey ran in Donegal and Dublin West in the 2020 General Election.

    There are also several high profile politicians over the years who represented constituencies in which they did not live. Mary Hanafin represented Dun Laoghaire, she lives/lived in Rathgar.


  • #2


    L1011 wrote: »
    Its a four seater... the 'working class vote' is even smaller when you consider that.

    Brain-fart there - bad considering it was where I voted for 10 years :o


  • #2


    Thought ti was odd so many names bandied around for a constituency, makes sense if you can just parachute in from anywhere!


  • #2


    schmittel wrote: »
    Thought ti was odd so many names bandied around for a constituency, makes sense if you can just parachute in from anywhere!

    Chu, O'Connell and Creighton have all either ran their before or run in wards within it i(n Chu's case).

    Bacik I'd say is not based there since she ran previously in Dublin Central and Dún Laoghaire and tried to run in Dublin-South-East.

    Lynne Boylan probably isn't either since she lives with Eoin O'Broin and he's a TD for Dublin Mid-West.


  • #2


    I think Bacik does live in the constituency, at least if wikipedia is right (Portobello claimed) - but she definitely didn't live in Dublin Central that time and I suspect not DL either!


  • #2


    Claire Byrne running for the Green Party nomination. Heading Hazel Chu off at the pass. She should get the nomination as she'd have Eamon Ryan's backing. She's also been around the GP a long time, so the more established members will favour her.

    https://twitter.com/CByrneGreen/status/1388488365192908801


  • #2


    If Byrne gets the GP nomination, I suspect that's the end of Chu in the Greens - Soc Dems (damaging to them if they take her...) or Independent.


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