Dublin Bay South By-Election

Larbre34

Podge_irl wrote: »

Ireland already disenfranchises emigrants more than almost any Western country and you want to tighten it even further? Also calling it a "massive compromise of electoral law" seems a bit shrill.

Ok fine. Lets say instead, those that remained on the electoral register, having been away from that address for more than six months, but used the vote anyway by traveling back from another jurisdiction where they live long term, just to vote, broke the law.

There is no 'little bit pregnant' here.

Brussels Sprout

Sam Russell wrote: »

It would be ridiculous for Ireland to give all Irish passport holders equivalent voting rights to those citizens living and paying taxes within the state - there are too many who have never been tax resident within the state, or have left and taken up permanent residence elsewhere. Many of these will never return to Ireland to reside here.

That situation does not apply to most other countries to anything like the same extent. For the last century and a half, a very large proportion of the population have been forced by economic need to emigrate. The emigrants may or may not have an interest in Irish politics, but whether they do have an interest, they will not have to live with the consequences of their vote.

Not to derail the thread any further but I certainly wouldn't be for all Irish passport holders getting a vote. Only people who have actually lived here, been on the electoral register and haven't been gone for too long (say 10 year cutoff). I'd also be open to them voting in their own constituency like they do in France.

I've seen enough threads on the topic though to realise that I'm in the minority on this one.

Sam Russell wrote: »

Getting back to the thread topic, if Kate O'Connell decides to contest the FG nomination, it will be equivalent to Hazel Chu's bid as being not flavour of the month within the party HQ.

The longer it goes on without hearing from her the less likely it is that she is running. Geoghegan seems to have all the momentum now.

Oymyakon

Eamon Ryan on Morning Ireland just now giving the very diplomatic "Either [Byrne or Chu] would make a very good TD and we're looking forward to having our internal selection process" answer

rdwight

awec wrote: »

It would not be a good look for her to run as an independent again. She would have to face sanctions from the party, they couldn't dodge it again.

As for running as a SD, it would be impossible to hide the careerism any longer.

I think that horse has already bolted.

touts

Kate O'Connell throwing a tantrum Live on Today with Claire Byrne. She's not running. Putting the boot into the "Fine Gael Leadership" as she effectively storms out the door of the party and slams it behind her.

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

Please, please read the charter.Posts that consist solely or mostly of gifs, memes, tweets, videos etc are not what this forum is for. You have to make a your own contribution.

golfball37

touts wrote: »

Kate O'Connell throwing a tantrum Live on Today with Claire Byrne. She's not running. Putting the boot into the "Fine Gael Leadership" as she effectively storms out the door of the party and slams it behind her.

She’s been shabbily treated. FG used be a party that welcomed discourse against the leader or critique of certain policies. Now it’s dear leader driven and suffering electorally as a result. Kate from the outside looking in was a very good td imo

blackwhite

She really seems to had all bridges with Varadkar burned.

It will be interesting to see if/when FG have new leadership whether she is brought in from the cold.

She always struck me as one of our brighter and more principled TDs, and as someone who was never afraid to speak her mind.

LeakyLime

So its James Geoghegan for FG - a former member of Renua.

If Kate was running I could have just about stomach FG winning the seat.

I think Social Dems & FF will be delighted Kate is not running.

L1011

Still hoping for a Creighton Comeback and/or possibly even McDowell running so we can have some mayhem; its all getting very bland now.+

spaceHopper

touts wrote: »

Kate O'Connell throwing a tantrum Live on Today with Claire Byrne. She's not running. Putting the boot into the "Fine Gael Leadership" as she effectively storms out the door of the party and slams it behind her.

Sounds like she was bullied and got no backing

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2021/0507/1216929-kate-oconnell-by-election/

Somebody wanted to present her with a sod of turf at a FG meeting and out signs pointing to the M50 and West Meath outside her pharmacy.

Shane McEntee was subjected to similar sign in his neighbourhood, he ended up taking his own life!

Frankly I'm appalled that FG would allow anything like this to happen again in it's party. It sound toxic.

spaceHopper

blackwhite wrote: »

She really seems to had all bridges with Varadkar burned.

It will be interesting to see if/when FG have new leadership whether she is brought in from the cold.

She always struck me as one of our brighter and more principled TDs, and as someone who was never afraid to speak her mind.

FF's Jim O'Callaghan said it was FG's loss and FFs gain that she was not running She was a strong contender taken out of the race.

Dublin Bay South Fianna Fáil TD Jim O'Callaghan said that on a personal level he is disappointed that Ms O'Connell will not be running, but that Fine Gael has done his party candidates a great favour by not putting the former TD forward for election.

Speaking on the same programme, Mr O'Callaghan said that as his party's Director of Elections for the campaign, he is "'very pleased we won't be facing such a popular and competitive candidate in the by-election".

He said the decision will be good news for the two Fianna Fáil councillors in the constituency, Claire O'Connor and Deirdre Conroy, who are going forward for selection.

Augme

You could argue that letting James run this time to raise his profile for a full general election to inxreas the chances of securing two seats is the smartest thing to do. But obviously Kate being strongly dislikes is a big factor too.

It will be very interesting to see what does happen in the next general election. They'll have a very tough time freezing her out of that given there's little else to be has.

Also, it seems James could well be the only male candidate to run for the established parties.

Leonard Hofstadter

Augme wrote: »

You could argue that letting James run this time to raise his profile for a full general election to inxreas the chances of securing two seats is the smartest thing to do. But obviously Kate being strongly dislikes is a big factor too.

It will be very interesting to see what does happen in the next general election. They'll have a very tough time freezing her out of that given there's little else to be has.

Also, it seems James could well be the only male candidate to run for the established parties.

Yes and in that constituency this will matter.

Disappointing, but not surprising, stuff by FG.

Larbre34

spaceHopper wrote: »

Sounds like she was bullied and got no backing

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2021/0507/1216929-kate-oconnell-by-election/

Somebody wanted to present her with a sod of turf at a FG meeting and out signs pointing to the M50 and West Meath outside her pharmacy.

Sean McEntee was subjected to similar sign in his neighbourhood, he ended up taking his own life!

Frankly I'm appalled that FG would allow anything like this to happen again in it's party. It sound toxic.

Shane.

spaceHopper

Larbre34 wrote: »

Shane.

Correct I know somebody called Sean and had it on the brain

Brussels Sprout

LeakyLime wrote: »

So its James Geoghegan for FG - a former member of Renua.

That's interesting. When did he leave them?

Larbre34

Oh diddums Kate O'Connell, how taken aback you seem at not enjoying the confidence of the party Leadership after throwing brickbats at them for years.

No, I don't agree with the denigration and intimidation tactics she has described, but when it comes to running a large party one must always look back to Haughey.

Had she pulled some of her crap under him, she'd be marooned on Rockall by now, filling her days making antiseptic from seaweed stuck to the cliff.

This is no different Katie, some day the Coveney camp will prevail again (and God knows I wish they had) but for now, eat your porridge.

I said that Leo doesn't like KOC.

not one little bitty bit.

the writing was on the wall after getting all those Seanad seat shaftings.

she is a divisive toxic presence herself - did herself no favours over the years and has been cast into the wilderness.

you should not really go on radio bad-mouthing the party leader - when she said Leo was not doing it for the party - how dumb is that?

Sam Russell

glasso wrote: »

I said that Leo doesn't like KOC.

not one little bitty bit.

the writing was on the wall after getting all those Seanad seat shaftings.

she is a divisive toxic presence herself - did herself no favours over the years and has been cast into the wilderness.

you should not really go on radio bad-mouthing the party leader - when she said Leo was not doing it for the party - how dumb is that?

There is a Wexford Independent TD who might advise her on how to get even with Leo.

Corby Trouser Press

Someone needs to tell Kate you lost, get over it

Larbre34

Sam Russell wrote: »

There is a Wexford Independent TD who might advise her on how to get even with Leo.

That wan wouldn't know how to spell it.

Can't see KOC running as an independent anyway, she doesn't want it enough.

Augme

Larbre34 wrote: »

That wan wouldn't know how to spell it.

Can't see KOC running as an independent anyway, she doesn't want it enough.

Or she isn't stupid enough. There is no way she would get elected in that consistency as an independent. I doubt anyone would.

Corby Trouser Press

Corby Trouser Press wrote: »

Someone needs to tell Kate you lost, get over it

At least she has a nice sod of turf to throw on the fire as she sheds a tear into her glass of vodka and bitter lemon :pac:

jay0109

Augme wrote: »

Also, it seems James could well be the only male candidate to run for the established parties.

Yet Roisin Shorthall on the radio this morning voiced her disgust at FG putting up a male in the by-election!

golfball37

glasso wrote: »

At least she has a nice sod of turf to throw on the fire as she sheds a tear into her glass of vodka and bitter lemon :pac:

Sod of turf on fire in Eamon’s constituency- she’s not even allowed that privilege

KevRossi

I'm kind of glad O'Connell won't be involved with politics for a while. She's a pharmacist and was pushing to keep cosy deals between the HSE and pharmacists running. It just cost the taxpayer a lot of money and keeps a lot of cash in the pockets of very few people. The system needs to be revamped, not maintained.

She was also handed that seat in 2016. She was given half page spreads every week in the Sindo leading up top the election with soft interviews. The idea was to get Lucinda Creighton out. Kate was on the wrong side of a leadership challenge in 2017, but couldn't keep her mouth shut when Leo won. She was incredibly naive to keep hitting out at the leadership, especially when she's in such a fickle and tight constituency and she's only damaged her future in the party now.

Corby Trouser Press

https://gript.ie/profile-kate-o-connell-fine-gael/

A very good summation of her time in politics and downfall.

Really not someone we need as a public representative.

Corby Trouser Press

Corby Trouser Press wrote: »

https://gript.ie/profile-kate-o-connell-fine-gael/

A very good summation of her time in politics and downfall.

Really not someone we need as a public representative.

God be with the days.... simpler times.

awec

O'Connell does sound like a piece of work but that Gript article is written by John McGuirk and given that he and O'Connell are basically polar opposites I do wonder if it's embellished a bit.

Having a go at your own party members in the manner that she did is foolish and she is paying the price for that.

awec

awec wrote: »

O'Connell does sound like a piece of work but that Gript article is written by John McGuirk and given that he and O'Connell are basically polar opposites I do wonder if it's embellished a bit.

certainly do remember the witch-hunt (literally in this case) against the FG adviser guy and the "how not to be magnanimous" repeal the 8th victory rub-your-face-in-it brag in the dail.

at one point the "personal adviser to Kate" sister made an ill-advised pre-election 2020 claim about herself getting a Seanad seat - to go with the other two sisters in the dail (or so she assumed)

deluded.

they are not cut out for the real world of party politics.

Corby Trouser Press

glasso wrote: »

God be with the days.... simpler times.

"WE NEED MORE WOMEN IN POLITICS*!"








*Doesn't matter if they are dishonest and self serving... they just need to be women

Corby Trouser Press

awec wrote: »

O'Connell does sound like a piece of work but that Gript article is written by John McGuirk and given that he and O'Connell are basically polar opposites I do wonder if it's embellished a bit.

Having a go at your own party members in the manner that she did is foolish and she is paying the price for that.

The Healy-Rae's are basically the polar opposites of every single political journalist in Ireland but nobody would question a well researched and put together piece on them.

Funny that.

awec

Corby Trouser Press wrote: »

The Healy-Rae's are basically the polar opposites of every single political journalist in Ireland but nobody would question a well researched and put together piece on them.

Funny that.

What's funny about it?

Not sure I get your point.

timmyntc

awec wrote: »

What's funny about it?

Not sure I get your point.

it seems like you are grasping at straws to accuse McGuirk of embellishing the article is the jist of it.

The piece has sources and references several events that we all saw happen in the past - most of the article is hard to dispute aside from the little comments from anonymous ex-TDs and so on, which add little to the article anyways.

RandomViewer

Are the runners and riders announced yet?

awec

timmyntc wrote: »

it seems like you are grasping at straws to accuse McGuirk of embellishing the article is the jist of it.

The piece has sources and references several events that we all saw happen in the past - most of the article is hard to dispute aside from the little comments from anonymous ex-TDs and so on, which add little to the article anyways.

I wasn't grasping at any straws, good grief! I'm not excusing Kate O'Connell at all. I would have thought "Kate O'Connell seems like a real piece of work" would make that obvious.

I wasn't disputing these things happened, more that the article portrays her as a bit of a crazed weapon and I am not sure I am willing to base my entire view of Kate O'Connell on an article written by an individual like John McGuirk. That is all.

Larbre34

RandomViewer wrote: »

Are the runners and riders announced yet?

For what? The damn thing won't be held until November.

The Government are not stupid enough to ignore the kind of vaccine bounce that Boris got in Hartlepool today. They'll wait to hold it until the day before a big rugby game in a full Aviva this Autumn with ads saying "Say thank you Meehole and Leo"

Here's the Claire Byrne piece

https://www.rte.ie/radio1/today-with-claire-byrne/programmes/2021/0507/1217534-today-with-claire-byrne-friday-7-may-2021/?clipid=103660565#103660565

L1011

Larbre34 wrote: »

For what? The damn thing won't be held until November.

The Government are not stupid enough to ignore the kind of vaccine bounce that Boris got in Hartlepool today. They'll wait to hold it until the day before a big rugby game in a full Aviva this Autumn with ads saying "Say thank you Meehole and Leo"

Vaccine bonus could be burnt out by the proposed October/November, if we're back in pubs and gone/back on holidays by then a lot of people will be 'over it' basically.

golfball37

Housing crisis is starting to get coverage again. We’re slowly moving on from covid

Brussels Sprout

awec wrote: »

I am not sure I am willing to base my entire view of Kate O'Connell on an article written by an individual like John McGuirk. That is all.

A small part of me dies every time someone uses gript.ie as a source.

Corby Trouser Press

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

A small part of me dies every time someone uses gript.ie as a source.

That says more about you then it does about Gript.

Sierra Oscar

golfball37 wrote: »

Housing crisis is starting to get coverage again. We’re slowly moving on from covid

The housing crisis is back with a bang. We're in a significantly worse position post-Covid on housing, compounded by supply chain issues caused by Brexit. No time for the Government to turn it around either. They're heading for an electoral disaster.

'Cost of building our house has risen by 30% in a year'

In regards DBS, I wouldn't put it past Ivana Bacik to pull off a win here.

Blut2

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

The housing crisis is back with a bang. We're in a significantly worse position post-Covid on housing, compounded by supply chain issues caused by Brexit. No time for the Government to turn it around either. They're heading for an electoral disaster.

'Cost of building our house has risen by 30% in a year'

In regards DBS, I wouldn't put it past Ivana Bacik to pull off a win here.

I wouldn't have rated the FF/FG/Grn government's chances of fixing the property market fully by January 2025 (at best, if the government lasts a full term) too highly to begin with. Its a huge task, that would have required far more radical measures than FF or FG were likely wiling to initiate to solve it in any way quickly.

But after losing 2 years progress to covid its now exceptionally unlikely. The completed housing units figures for 2020 and projections for 2021 show the situation is actually going to have gotten worse since the last election, not better. We need 30,000+ housing units a year to be built to make a dent in the supply problems, and projections are now for 12-14,000 units this year, after only 20,000 last year.

We'd need approaching 50,000 units a year completed now in 2022/23/24 for the market to be in any way self-correcting. Which just isn't going to happen.

SF will be heading towards government almost guaranteed as a result, the only question will be how many total seats / how many parties they need to govern with.

Stovepipe

Poor old Kate does a millionaire's flounce when FG fail to see her brilliance and decline to back her. Back to her pharmacies she must go, the poor thing. Are you allowed to burn turf in SoCoDu?

Sam Russell

Stovepipe wrote: »

Poor old Kate does a millionaire's flounce when FG fail to see her brilliance and decline to back her. Back to her pharmacies she must go, the poor thing. Are you allowed to burn turf in SoCoDu?

Only bridges.

Good loser

Blut2 wrote: »

I wouldn't have rated the FF/FG/Grn government's chances of fixing the property market fully by January 2025 (at best, if the government lasts a full term) too highly to begin with. Its a huge task, that would have required far more radical measures than FF or FG were likely wiling to initiate to solve it in any way quickly.

But after losing 2 years progress to covid its now exceptionally unlikely. The completed housing units figures for 2020 and projections for 2021 show the situation is actually going to have gotten worse since the last election, not better. We need 30,000+ housing units a year to be built to make a dent in the supply problems, and projections are now for 12-14,000 units this year, after only 20,000 last year.


We'd need approaching 50,000 units a year completed now in 2022/23/24 for the market to be in any way self-correcting. Which just isn't going to happen.

SF will be heading towards government almost guaranteed as a result, the only question will be how many total seats / how many parties they need to govern with.

Heard someone on radio say there might - at a pinch - be 21,000 completions this year.

Good loser

Good loser wrote: »

Heard someone on radio say there might - at a pinch - be 21,000 completions this year.

how many on sale to the general public and not cuckoo funds?

Blut2

Good loser wrote: »

Heard someone on radio say there might - at a pinch - be 21,000 completions this year.

Its unlikely. The Housing Minister himself, who you would expect to be optimistic for political reasons alone, is forecasting the 12-14,000 range:

Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien has said 33,000 homes per year needed to be delivered to address supply issues.

"This year because of the shutdown we could be as low as 12,000 to 14,000 housing completions"

https://extra.ie/2021/05/04/business/property/housing-minister-homes