Russian build up along Ukraine

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023279#Comment_119023279

Given Russian performance so far in this war, I’d imagine they aren’t even close to the Israeli level.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023474#Comment_119023474

Well they have admitted that a P8 gave info for targeting the Moskva, they might have done the same here.

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023345#Comment_119023345

Russia unlike the West, does not learn from the mistakes of others. Instead it considers their failure their personal weakness.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023673#Comment_119023673

I think without question Ukraine are receiving real time intelligence of the highest quality from western assets. This is consistent with the change in policy to provide offensive resources, such as counter-battery radar and advanced mobile artillery etc.

The Russians ought to be filling their shorts at the prospect, frankly.

Hotblack Desiato

They still have the option to pack up and go home. Just sayin'.

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024262#Comment_119024262

They do, of course. But let's be honest, it's very unlikely to go like that while Putin is in charge.

I've been reading a bit today about the potential for Putin to use the May 9th Anniversary to declare War and enable mobilisation of his reserve forces, or not.

Some commentators are suggesting that there is not a person attached to the Russian military or its reserve, that is not now fully aware of the reality for their comrades in theatre, that losses - KIA/serious wounded/captured - are nearing 30,000 and that despite all the propaganda, there is widespread anguish in the home bases of many units about where their men have disappeared to and why they are hearing no information about them.

Further, it's being suggested that if inexperienced conscripts are dragged into service under a reserve activation, and they know their most likely fate is to be killed in action, putting an AK47 into each of their 200,000 pairs of hands is a very bad idea indeed for the Russian command. Does Putin want to enable his own downfall by armed revolution and social order collapse?

Hotblack Desiato

If the rumours going around about Putin's health are true, you'd have to wonder how long he can hold onto power anyway.

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029105#Comment_119029105

In the soviet days, May 9th was usually when the west found out the Soviet premier was dead.

Hotblack Desiato

In the Soviet days, a leader as flaky as Vladimir would have been removed ages ago.

Larbre34

Credible reports emerging that Ukraine has succeeded striking this Elbrus Class auxiliary logistics vessel and that it was being consumed by fire off Crimea, but is under tow.

The 95m ship is just over one year old and has a gross tonnage of 10,000t.

Larbre34

Sounds like Skynet is active.

(Russian claims have not been at all verified)

Yury Borisov, deputy prime minister in charge of military development, told a news conference this week that Peresvet was already being widely deployed and it could blind satellites up to 1,500km above the earth.

He also said there were more powerful systems that could burn up drones and other equipment, adding that a test on Tuesday had seen the weapon burn up a drone 5km away within five seconds.

"If Peresvet blinds, then the new generation of laser weapons lead to the physical destruction of the target - thermal destruction, they burn up," he told Russian state television.

Asked if such weapons were being used in Ukraine, Borisov said: "Yes. The first prototypes are already being used there." He said the weapon was called Zadira.

Dohvolle

They do realise that Reagan's star wars project was a ruse, designed to force the Soviet Union into spending trillions on their own space program, and inevitably killing their economy?

They can't try the same stunt on the west. We can see what's being launched!

ancientmariner

Due to the way this war is being fought, at times long range with missiles, and then short range, with hand held weapon efficiency favouring the Ukrainian side, followed by indiscriminate artillery fire by the Russians. It is leading to a tennis style attritional combat. it leaves very little worth having when ground is taken but more importantly cannot provide a physical point for stopping to initiate a peace agreement.

ancientmariner

Since before the actual attack on Ukraine, and the much publicised " we are not going to attack" phase, we have had a continuing demonstration of Russian treachery in conducting the war even to the point of appearing to sign an agreement to free up Ukrainian grain exports, to alleviate world hunger, and then targeting Odesa within 24 hrs of the signed agreement. They switched on Gas to Europe a few days ago and then reduced it to 20% the next Day. They encourage calm by saying we are concentrating on Donebas and then rain terror down on population centres miles from the battle zones. They cannot be trusted now or ever in the future.

Brussels Sprout

Here are a couple of YT channels I have found very informative from the military side of the conflict:

Firstly, Prerun. This guy apparently put out computer game videos prior to this outbreak which makes it all the more remarkable that he's been able to pivot to generating such high quality deep-dive military videos. They're all roughly an hour and follow a presentation-like format but they are excellently researched and data-driven.

He typically has 1 video per week - which is understandable given the level of detail in them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_F7mt4rNVY0&t=3365s&ab_channel=Perun

Secondly there is this guy. He's a Ukrainian pilot living in Ukraine so it's definitely biased in favour of the Ukrainian side. He puts out daily videos where he goes through the map of Ukraine discussing the latest battles in the conflict. It's a good way to keep up to date with the latest goings on:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9uYHZzGHXM&ab_channel=DenysDavydov

sparky42

Looks like Russia is being routed in Kharkiv over the last few days.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119597292#Comment_119597292

Looking at different Media I am seeing different views, Are the Russian lines collapsing?

Psychlops

Posters on Twitter saying yesterday alone Russia lost 1,500 troops all KIA.

Larbre34

Now is the time to be concerned. A wounded animal can do the most damage.

While the Ukrainian counter-offensives are inspiring and great wins for them, I'd have a genuine fear that a significant route of the Russian Army in certain places, for instance one that cuts off Crimea from the contiguous Russian bridgehead, could result in the deployment of a tactical nuclear weapon against advancing Ukrainian forces.

Putin is a rat in a corner.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119597465#Comment_119597465

While the Kherson operations is going slowly, the Kharkiv operation has blown a massive hole in their lines and likely to lead to the withdrawal out of the South of the Kharkiv region. It seems they have no operational reserves in the area having stripped them to support Kherson.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119597598#Comment_119597598

At this stage trying to guess what is in Putin mind is a fools goal. He may decide as you say to pop a nuke, either on Ukrainian forces (though given how dispersed they are not sure how much it would get him) or behind the lines or on a range as a threat. But that will likely only lead to further escalations anyway…

sparky42

Ukrainian forces have taken Izyum this morning (it took the Russians the better part of a month to take it), further reports of Russian forces basically collapsing in the area, huge amount of stores and equipment being taken by Ukrainian forces.

roadmaster

Is this the start of the turning point in the war? I’d say there is a lot of Russian Troops maybe just said I am not dying for this

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119600106#Comment_119600106

The Russian talking heads saying on TV to save Russian face about the West backing Ukraine. Can you imagine being a Russian soldier in a fox hole hearing that. HE KNOWS from first hand experience they are no match for the west. Not the best for morale.

AMKC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119600106#Comment_119600106

Let's hope so.

Yes they would be much better going home and overthrowing their crazy dictator if they ever want Russia to start to become part of the civilised world again.

sparky42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119600106#Comment_119600106

Between some reports of 10K potential POWs in the Kharkiv pocket along with the 30K or so in Kherson that are relatively cut off from retreat Russia potentially could lose a huge chunk of manpower along with massive amounts of equipment and munitions no matter what. Along with the KIA/WIA they have already taken in the 6 months, the Russian options are swiftly narrowing.

The Ukrainians are going to have to pause at some point, they won't want to pull a Russia and outrun their logistics or run their troops into the ground, there's also the Autumn rain and mud to come soon limiting advancement, but they have still pulled off a hell of a counteroffensive.

Larbre34

Reports that a Russian missile intended for a target in western Ukraine, crossed into Poland, hitting a small town about 7 kms from the border, killing two Polish people in a grain facility.

One suspects the Poles will not take this at all lightly.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119878540#Comment_119878540

Bye Bye Black sea Fleet?

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119878612#Comment_119878612

Depends.

There is no existential threat to Poland from this. You'd suspect the big powers will talk them down from any rash invocation of Article 5.

Despite the tragic loss of life, I don't think anyone could say that it compares to a Russian mechanised Division rolling over the border.

sparky42

Some mixed reporting so far on what has happened (as you’d expect), the town where the missile hit is part of a “turn” in the border between Ukraine and Poland, the missile could have been intended to “cut the corner”, also some reports that it might have been a single Russian missile and a Ukrainian S300 interceptor that hit it.

Doubt it will be Article 5 but some reaction is likely