Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Russian build up along Ukraine

1567810

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 3,260 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    It may focus the minds of certain other NATO members about the need for better Air Defences in Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Indeed, the issue is the NATO members don’t exactly have a huge surplus of heavy SAMs standing by. How many more systems might be available, or maybe the US could pull the ones going to the Saudis?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Seems Russia is unhappy with us...Still I'm sure Claire and Mick will be able to travel.

    Also it now seems that it's been confirmed that it was a S 300 that came down in Poland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,109 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Probably Mary Lou and a few other shinnors are allowed travel as well.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Allowed, I'd be surprised if they didn't have a standing invite...



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,565 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    I see our neighbours are making noise they may send fighter jets to Ukraine. What would they send? The Torandos that they retired a few years ago are they in a storage yard?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Given Germany is exported ly near the point of handcrafting spares for their Tornadoes to keep them operational I would be highly doubtful that the RAF ones could be returned to service in any reasonable time, or that supporting them in combat would be viable. I’d say that was more a PR move than an actual likely prospect, some of the suggested F16 transfers would make much more sense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,260 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    What became of all the harriers that were retired early? The GR7 was a hell of a ground attack aircraft.

    As for the Tonkas, The ADV was very hands on to fly and needed a crew of 2. Ukraine can't spare pilots for that nonsense.

    But some nations who operate the Typhoon are about to decide whether to upgrade their earlier versions or not. I think Austria is close to handing back its Air Superiority only versions. Spain could do likewise Indeed anyone with Tranche 1s could use the opportunity to get rid of them instead of struggling to upgrade to Block 5 standard.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    To be fair, I think Zelenskyy spent his day trying to bounce them into it, but Sunak wasn't really biting.

    The MoD have never been ones to mothball fleet, probably because its so feckin expensive and soggy Britain isn't a good place to do it. Even the early Typhoon trainers have already been scrapped.

    They may have sent some stuff to the Boneyard and I'll bet this month's mortgage payment that anything left of the Harriers went to the Marine Corps, who still operate 90 of them. Likewise, Tornado bits probably went to the Luftwaffe.

    All up, His Majesty's armed forces can just about muster 130 combat aircraft and a few dozen heavy drones between the RAF and Fleet Air Arm. Attack chopper numbers aren't dazzling either.

    So, in the event that NATO does need to join battle with the reds at some point, Britain simply don't have the crates to spare....



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 3,565 ✭✭✭roadmaster


    There is a lot more talk on in the UK media this morning that they will supply jets. It will be interesting to see if it happens. The UK even at the moment have no hawks as they are all grounded. Maybe as Dohvelle touched on they could send there Tranche 1 Tyhoons. It would be a good way to for the UK to see how they get on in air to air combat and a good reason to manufactue more aircraft



  • Registered Users Posts: 33,795 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Yeah the Harriers went to the USMC for spares.

    Life ain't always empty.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,260 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    RUSI seems to disagree with me. Their reason? Typhoon is a piece of poop that requires large teams of civvy contractors to keep it operational.

    Giving RAF Typhoons to Ukraine Would Be a Very Expensive Symbolic Gesture | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    I've often read RUSI articles down the years and thought that any Government should consult with them first, before committing to problem child projects like Typhoon and F-35.

    Give me a hundred F-15s and F-16s over a hundred Typhoons and F-35s any day.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Any Government has to balance military capabilities with domestic concerns (ie industries), not buying Typhoons then meant the end of the domestic capability to build Fighters, while also paying the States for fighters. It’s been the same argument since WW2 for most of the European nations, also the reason why the European defence industry is still so splintered and repetitive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Don't the Brits only build the forward fuselage and the tail?

    No avionics, no engines, no undercarriage, no carbon fibre wings.

    That being the case, I don't think the Brits could any longer build any sort of whole combat plane on its own, in short order, even if it had to.

    And it has to be a concern. If Russia widened the War into central Europe tomorrow and got a foothold in Germany, it'd probably be enough to disrupt the entire Eurofighter delivery capability.

    If NATO are serious about rapid expansion of the European member's militaries, then when it comes to combat aircraft, the Typhoon should probably all move to a small number of sites, preferably somewhere like Spain.

    This nonsense of building the plane in 10 different sites and gluing it all together in Germany, is a peace time indulgence that no longer works.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    How exactly would Russia do that? Lets not be jumping at shadows, this war has proved their capabilities are fall less than what they have been doing PR with.

    As to the UK, it's not just the industrial base, it's also the r&d infrastructure for development, hence why the UK is pushing their Tempest as a Next Gen fighter (and the French and Germans are trying to agree their project), and why BAe managed a by in for the F35 project. Just look at the saga of UK procurement during the Cold War. It's nothing new, through out the Cold War you had either projects built to sustain domestic capabilities (ie the French) or at the very least licenced production for "smaller" countries/militaries (Netherlands, Greece etc), it's no different than the US spreading procurement of their fighters/bombers across all 50 states to buy political votes.

    As for NATO being serious about enlarging European militaries, that doesn't override domestic politics, so all the European nations combined will still have duplication left, right and center so as to keep domestic employment and tax bases going (ie multiple SSK designs, multiple armour projects, 2-3 Next Gen fighter projects, etc etc). You aren't going to last in a Government if you declare that you are going to shut a local industry and move it all to another country, that's simple politics



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,260 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    Reading earlier, Ukraine has made a formal request for Dutch F16s. Given the Dutch anger against russia is quite raw this week with the report into the Downing of MH17, I think this is a done deal. There are 40 in service with the KLu, most replaced in active service by the F35, of which 26 have been delivered, while waiting on a further 18.

    Seems like a done deal.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


     "If Russia widened the War into central Europe tomorrow and got a foothold in Germany..."

    LOL! Come back to me when they've taken Ukraine, or do you think they are only fighting with kid gloves currently?



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,109 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Next you will have Russia coming through the Sally gap to attack Dublin. If the Russians even manage to defeat Ukraine ( and I am of the opinion it's will be the other way around) there military will be destroyed as an offencive force. Any effective for es left will be tied down by insurgency for es in Ukraine

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 33,795 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    To get to Germany they'd have to get through Poland first. It's not happening.

    Rolls-Royce didn't make the Typhoon engines all by themselves but they didn't for the Tornado (or Concorde) either. Politics.

    Life ain't always empty.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Ye would all be foolish to forget that the Russians haven't even taken the covers off their strategic weapons yet, or employed a full reserve mobilisation, or put the Navy onto a War footing, or opened up a Belarusian front with the forces of that Country.

    In other words, Russia is far from fully committed militarily and is only so far seeking to walk the fine line between gaining ground in Ukraine and triggering a wider conflict they aren't ready for yet.

    Only this morning Russia thought nothing of flying missiles over Moldova and Romania. Romania is NATO for jaysis sake.

    Independent intelligence reports are showing a mass of 2,000 Russian tanks gearing up for the predicted new offensive in the east.

    Even in the event of a border outbreak near Polish territory, the RAF would have to commit even more fighters to the NATO bulwark and fully stock its Carriers for operational service.

    Point being, Britain scarcely has enough planes for its own needs, right now, with donating aircraft to Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Sweat zombie Jesus, give the **** over with the “Russia strong” shite, across the board they have demonstrated that they can’t compete with a relatively constrained force like Ukraine, they can’t fight a war with NATO, not with what they have or can have.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,260 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    I disagree, somewhat. They have complete air superiority, anything Ukranian flying is doing so low level, they currently have no answer for missile armed Mig31s, anything Ukranian seeking to attack locations where cruise missiles are being launched from has to take on a vast network of Long range air defences. Ukraine has no "Wild Weasel" capability, and there has been no request I know of for HARMS.

    Tactically the Russian army in Ukraine is very poor, but it still has a lot more bodies to fling in the meat grinder than Ukraine. The Navy may be licking it's wounds somewhat after the loss of Moskva, but it still roams the worlds oceans freely, and is currently heading for a Joint ex with the PLAN and SA Navy in the Indian Ocean.

    What we are witnessing is the invasion forces. I fear the defending forces are a different ballgame. Lets not forget Russian Forces took out a neutral airliner and carried on regardless. Twice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    I’d disagree about air superiority, they are mostly staying over their own areas, you aren’t seeing them try interdiction flights against deep areas in Ukraine for example, and their own air assets are flying at the same height due to SAMs as well. And yes HARMs have been macgyvered onto MIG 29s from some of the footage they have showed and some examples of damaged Russian hardware. Of course the Russian bombers are staying deep in Russian territory (which isn’t exactly an offensive position) but their strikes have been massively wasteful for most of the time, and that SAM system has been proven vulnerable with Russia losing Strategic bombers to drone strikes deep within Russia, hell it’s not normal to set up short range SAMS on capital buildings if you are confident of your defences.

    The Russian Army is beyond scrapping the bottom of the barrel in both quality of manpower and equipment effectively at this stage and will have massive long term impacts for Russia anyway. As for the Navy, yeah losing a warship to a nation that effectively doesn’t have a navy isn’t great for anyone, but in reality it’s ability to affect the war is limited and it’s global abilities the same when compared to major Western or Asian Navies.

    And above all else, we aren’t talking about the hammering in Ukraine, we are talking about the (crazy imo) suggestion that somehow while they are fully committed to an utter meatgrinder that they could have the ability to engage in open warfare with the collective might of NATO… That’s not going to happen. It’s as likely as the floated suggestion back in the summer that they were preparing for conflict with Japan over their disputed areas.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Calm down Sparky.

    Russian HAVE NOT used their full arsenal yet, we all know that.

    If they presented no threat, then NATO would be sending home the 4 Divisions forward deployed on the eastern flank. You may have noticed that they are not.

    Russia are not as strong as anyone thought - especially themselves - but they aren't weak either and are entirely capable of inflicting massive damage if they so choose.

    The point of this conversation is the around the surplus availability of NATO combat aircraft to make available to Ukraine, if that was to become the policy. There are few or none, in the European forces anyway.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭sparky42


    Outside of nukes what exactly have they been holding back? They’ve stripped units and equipment from everywhere from the Chinese border to the Kalingrad to maintain operations and that’s with two rounds of mobilisation to try and boost numbers as well. This “Russia is holding back” is no different than the tankies proclaiming that Putin ordered retreats as signs of good will…

    They have burned through their MBT stocks, they’ve burned through their special forces, they have lost a measurable faction of their helicopter fleet, they have lost irreplaceable ships and planes, and that’s not even touching the demographic and economic damage they have done to themselves, but you are arguing that they have capacity to try anything in widening this war?

    Of course NATO is keeping their forces forward deployed, the Baltic’s in particular have no depth or capability to defend themselves, and Vlad hasn’t been slow in threatening them but likewise Russia has no capacity to enlarge this war. It’s telling that when Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO there was barely a whimper from Moscow compared to preinvasion sabre rattling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,260 ✭✭✭Dohvolle


    That's just it, the real threat the rest of the world faces is no longer from a conventional Russian attack but from an asymmetric one. It's only a matter of time before Vlad runs out of support at home, and he is replaced with another nutjob, willing to do the Oligarchs bidding. Navalny, the only credible (living) opposition in Russia, feels the same about Ukraine as Vald, that its part of Russia. They are a well armed rogue state.

    The danger is it would be within the ability of Russia to disrupt commercial aircraft or shipping in the Eastern Med or elsewhere. They won't care what the civilised world thinks. Let's not forget they killed their own people to turn Russian opinion against Chechen separatists During the Moscow Theatre hostage crisis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14 AliceN


    I'd like to add that one of the reasons why Russian forces don't demonstrate big results across the board is that a lot of their soldiers are not ready to fight for death, some of them are attempting to defect. Most of them decided to take part in this war because of money. And Ukrainians fight for their motherland, their freedom, and a better future. There is a big difference. I mean the strength of spirit plays a great role here. 

    I follow not only the news about the war but also about various Ukrainian projects. The last one I discovered was CarDonate. Its goal is to find people who want to donate tjeir old vehicle for military needs.

    It is amazing how many people have transformed their lives to support each other and fight in the war, both on the front line, and in the back.

    Post edited by AliceN on


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 23,776 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    What a pair of Flankers!

    Probably not a great development to increase trust and safety.



Advertisement