Russian build up along Ukraine

sparky42

So if anyone missed it, seems Wagner (or a part of it) has mutinied after possibly being attacked by the Russian military, left their positions in Ukraine heading back into Russia, and now Russian troops are reportedly being deployed while the FSB has ordered the arrest of Prigozhin...

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757326#Comment_120757326

Oops

Dohvolle

Most independent reports saying Wagner holds the town of Rostov, which houses the command of the Southern Military District and the Operational Headquarters for the war in Ukraine. It’s also one of Russia most important logistical hubs for the war. Wagner could get it hands on enormous stockpiles.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is out of Popcorn.

roadmaster

If this is not some game of smoke and daggers by the russians and is real where does this leave Ukraine. Is there a chance to deliver a fatal blow to the russian forces in ukraine?

Larbre34

So an already dicey major nuclear power is effectively in open insurrection and maybe soon full civil war.

This is 'one second to Midnight' stuff folks. We can only hope some sense prevails and control is taken by the grown ups.

Tom Clancy wasn't a fiction writer, he was a fcuking soothsayer.

bogman_bass

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757919#Comment_120757919

They are hardly going to use nukes on themselves are they?

Things are exciting enough we don’t need to add those kinds of dramatics

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120758028#Comment_120758028

From afar, it looks as if Wagner is coming not for the Russian Leadership, but for Russia's military leadership. Wagner seem, at face value powerful enough to win this battle, while leaving Putin unscathed. At present they are insuring Russian military aircraft are taking off to Bomb Ukraine, not Wagner.

They have told the People of Russia that there was no threat from Ukraine, and reports Ukraine was attacking Russian speakers in the Donbas region was false.

Wagner now control Rostov-on-Don. With reports It also controls Volgograd and Beyond, It's gonna be a long day in Russia.

Hotblack Desiato

There hasn't been a grown-up in charge of Russia[*] since Gorbachev got deposed.

[*] yes, yes I know, Soviet Union != Russia but he was in charge of Russia!

Hotblack Desiato

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120757919#Comment_120757919

Here ya go

https://oism.org/nwss/nwss.pdf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frAEmhqdLFs&pp=ygUKbGVocmVyIGZyeQ%3D%3D

👍️

Oh and here's a blast from the past from the commander in chief of the most formidable nuclear forces in the world...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiVyd7ORKPU

Larbre34

A grim but interesting piece about Dubliner Rhys Byrne, fighting alongside other international volunteers in the Ukrainian TA, on the front to recapture annexed eastern Ukraine.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-irish-fighter-rambo-describes-terrifying-russia-tank-chase-all-of-us-were-screaming-12919142

Grassy Knoll

Interesting perspective from this analyst on the current state of play and observations on the conduct of the war. Dunno if he is right or wrong ….

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0TahChM4QSU

Larbre34

So the Ukrainian counteroffensive slowly continues as we head inevitably towards another frozen winter and probable stalemate for another while.

In the Levant, a savage conflict has broken out between Iranian backed Arab militants and Israel, all while Israel cosies up to Saudi Arabia and the Emirates.

In Syria, Russian and Turkish and US/Allied forces continue in some sort of undefined proxy conflict for and against the Assad regime.

The Turks are fighting the Kurds and threatening the Greeks and the Cypriots.

The Serbs are monstering Kosovo, The Azeris have ethnically cleansed Nogorno-Karabakh, the Indians are quarreling with Pakistan and China. China is quarreling with every nation in South Asia that borders the South China Sea, plus Australia. Japan and South Korea are beyond done with North Korea's crap and the Sahel is a complete mess of proxy regimes for Russia and its mercenaries!

So, my argument is that we could be quite close to a global conventional war, a sudden escalation of dozens of parallel conflicts, becoming World War 3 if you like.

In that eventuality, whither Ireland? What do we do, what do we need? How do we move from defenceless to being the western flank of fortress Europe?

macraignil

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211353#Comment_121211353

Tried to voice my suggestion for this type of view of how geopolitics might develop on this thread I started without a lot of positive response but I still think there is merit to a major effort here to develop this countries abilities in drone technology. The use of drones is clearly going to be a major part of future conflicts as can be seen in how every day in the Ukraine russia war, cheaply made drones are providing critical reconnaissance and targeting the enemy on a tactical and strategic level. I suggested that the new technology could be best developed by a new structure for its development but you yourself pointed out that it is all fine as it is and the existing branches of the military here have it all in hand.

For the price of a few modern jet fighters we could have a cutting edge drone development centre and that's where I think efforts to provide for future security of this country should be focused. IT security is another area that needs attention as demonstrated by the recent hacking of the HSE network. Also food production needs to be assessed to see what can be done to counteract growing dependence on other countries for some foods with economics making a lot of more labour intensive food products simply cheaper to produce outside of the country and possibly some grants for producers of certain imported foods needed to improve our self sufficiency.

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121211353#Comment_121211353

Another commission/white paper/consultation/public forum/green paper/white paper?

Larbre34

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121212688#Comment_121212688

No I'm serious; in a 3am alarm call moment, a rapid escalation and confluence of conflicts on the doorstep of the EU, what do we actually do?

What is the defensive posture of Ireland, with the men and the tools we have, today, this bright morning.

roadmaster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121213260#Comment_121213260

We do what we do best as a nation sit on the fence and hope for the best

mupper2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121213260#Comment_121213260

This all has the real feeling of a building crescendo...like the World is just tipping towards a point where something real bad could kick it all off.

Dohvolle

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121213260#Comment_121213260

I was also serious.

9/11 happened a few short weeks after the Irish Govt White paper on defence asserted we were living in a benign security environment. As such there were no changes to irish defence posture following the Attacks in the USA, and the "war on terror" that followed because the DoD had spoken and that was that. The threat from our own subversives had passed, the downsizing of the Border operation was almost complete, our overseas operations had enough white paint for the vehicles it had, some prop trainers with machine guns will protect the sky, and the navy got one new ship, and was getting another, and that'll be it until 2015.

The defence forces post 9/11 dropped from a total (Permanent & reserve) strength of 24450 in 2001 to 11185 by the time the 2015 white paper came out.

You read that right, the defence forces halved in the 15 years after the worst single terrorist attack in history. The Permanent defence force dropped from just under 10500 to 9100 in the same period of international instability. (from a peak of 15000 full time members 30 years in the 10970s.)

sparky42

Looks like “someone” has damaged/blown a gas pipeline from Finland to Estonia…

Larbre34

My tankie senses tell me it was most likely Finland or Estonia, or Denmark. Or Indonesia.