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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IX *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

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Comments

  • #3302
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hellrazer wrote: »
    I never said it was the same - I said the data is not available for us to prove it one way or another. The data is there for both countries for over 65s so thats all we can use to compare.

    Over 65 - 0.5 % chance of dying regardless of whether you are in Ireland or Sweden.

    That's a misleading stat however. There is an 11.8% chance of dying if you are over 65 and diagnosed with covid in Ireland.


  • #3303
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    timmyntc wrote: »
    The 'weirdos & racists' were heavily outnumbered by normal people on Saturday.
    But of course only the nutters & the violent ones will garner media attention.

    The longer this goes on the more protests there will be, and they will no longer be able to pretend it’s just ‘racists and weirdos’ looking for a day out.

    A bit like how regular posters on this thread were sneered at and referred to as right wing fringe lunatics who don’t represent the thoughts of the good self-sacrificing Irish people, but now the main Covid thread (and all the rest) are exactly the same as this one in terms of tone and criticism for the restrictions.
    Sometimes I forget which one I’m reading as the posts on both are so similar.
    Support for the restrictions is decreasing considerably by the day, as even the most reasonable of adults can see what a mess the government are making of all this.

    The frantic panicked effort to downplay it and discredit it as a trivial non event speaks for itself.
    It took a lot longer than I thought it would but the tide has finally turned and people now see this suicide mission for what it is.


  • #3304
    copeyhagen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭copeyhagen


    Graham wrote: »
    Keep trying. It's right up there with permanent lockdown in the credibility stakes.

    bear mase? you tell me?


  • #3305
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,567 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    timmyntc wrote: »
    The 'weirdos & racists' were heavily outnumbered by normal people on Saturday.

    Citation?

    From the vast amount of videos I watched, nothing I have seen contradicts Drew Harris and his summation.

    Basically a concerted mob of fringe lunatics intent on causing trouble.


  • #3306
    francogarbanzo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 365 ✭✭francogarbanzo


    Boggles wrote: »
    Citation?

    From the vast amount of videos I watched, nothing I have seen contradicts Drew Harris and his summation.

    Basically a concerted mob of fringe lunatics intent on causing trouble.

    Have you watched the streams? Because to me, it looks like mostly "normal people."

    If you have, what makes you come to the conclusion that they're fringe lunatics?

    If you haven't, then you can't really comment on the makeup of the protest.


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  • #3307
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,567 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    francogarbanzo wrote: »
    Have you watched the streams? Because to me, it looks like mostly "normal people."

    If you have, what makes you come to the conclusion that they're fringe lunatics?

    If you haven't, then you can't really comment on the makeup of the protest.

    I just said in my post you quoted I watched a vast amount of videos and nothing I see contradicts what the Garda Commissioner said.

    Now if you have evidence that contradicts him, them by all means throw it up, I'll gladly take a look.

    We are talking at a push 300-400 people, with around 5-10% getting arrested (so far).

    I'm going to have to go with my gut here, in combination with what I watched and what Harris said I'm afraid.


  • #3308
    Hellrazer
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hellrazer


    Deleted User wrote: »
    That's a misleading stat however. There is an 11.8% chance of dying if you are over 65 and diagnosed with covid in Ireland.



    Its not a misleading stat.And I dont know where you are getting your 11.8% from.

    If you are over 65 in Ireland you have a 0.5% chance of dying from Covid 19.

    The figures are available for everyone to see if they want to work them out themselves.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116346125&postcount=9500


  • #3309
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hellrazer wrote: »
    Its not a misleading stat.And I dont know where you are getting your 11.8% from.

    If you are over 65 in Ireland you have a 0.5% chance of dying from Covid 19.

    The figures are available for everyone to see.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=116346125&postcount=9500

    Have 100% of over 65's gotten covid? Because that is the only way your "stat" makes any sense.

    0.5% of over 65s have died from covid. That is not a measure of chances of dying of covid


  • #3310
    francogarbanzo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 365 ✭✭francogarbanzo


    Boggles wrote: »
    I just said in my post you quoted I watched a vast amount of videos and nothing I see contradicts what the Garda Commissioner said.

    Now if you have evidence that contradicts him, them by all means throw it up, I'll gladly take a look.

    We are talking at a push 300-400 people, with around 5-10% getting arrested (so far).

    I'm going to have to go with my gut here, in combination with what I watched and what Harris said I'm afraid.

    This is what 400 people looks like:

    400-3_med_hr.png

    Here's an hour of the most heated moment of the most heated area of the protest. Even here, how can you say it's only 400 people and it's a that it's mostly fringe lunatic troublemakers?

    https://www.facebook.com/516660255078582/videos/759535598299021


  • #3311
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,639 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Have 100% of over 65's gotten covid? Because that is the only way your "stat" makes any sense.

    0.5% of over 65s have died from covid. That is not a measure of chances of dying of covid

    His stat is correct - the stat you are referring to is the chance of dying given you have contracted covid.

    The chance of dying from covid also includes the possibility that you never contract it - which means you are a guaranteed survival.


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  • #3312
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    _Kaiser_ wrote: »
    Looks perfectly peaceful too.

    Barely a mask to be seen, not that much of an ask. Spoke with a friend in New York who says everybody wears a mask, indoor and outdoor and he can go back to things he enjoys (like gym). Seems like there’s a severe lack of understanding of how virus spreads in that March. Or was it a belligerents FU to the establishment, it really would be then comparable with the morons storming the capital in US.

    I’ve generally stayed away from this forum and observe a serious lack of common sense. A major reason Christmas happened because the government gave the people what they wanted. I hope they don’t make the same mistake again. The abject failure of many people in this forum to stand back from how they feel about things and engage in some self reflection is mind boggling.

    Mass gathering during a pendemic is one of the stupidest things imaginable, especially when there is an open forum online (internet) to do the exact same thing in a safer manner. Look at the presidential inauguration, usually packed out but because it’s not safe for mass gatherings they didn’t have a normal one.

    Nobody is saying you don’t have a right to protest, but by physically doing so these people undermine efforts to suppress the spread that involves not being in big crowds, particularly without masks.

    I think most people have retained perspective on this crisis and that those marching do not represent the majority of people, many of whom may not like the lockdown but at least have the humility to accept that they don’t know better then those advising our government. You don’t Have to like the lockdown to accept it. I had written so much more but to be honest don’t have the patience or tolerance for the lack of common sense rising to the fore.


  • #3313
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,567 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    francogarbanzo wrote: »

    https://www.facebook.com/516660255078582/videos/759535598299021

    Nothing in that video contradicts what the Garda Commissioner stated.

    It actually confirms it.

    At least your man was wearing a mask, it was a rare act on Saturday.


  • #3314
    User1998
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,326 ✭✭✭User1998


    Boggles wrote: »
    I just said in my post you quoted I watched a vast amount of videos and nothing I see contradicts what the Garda Commissioner said.

    Now if you have evidence that contradicts him, them by all means throw it up, I'll gladly take a look.

    We are talking at a push 300-400 people, with around 5-10% getting arrested (so far).

    I'm going to have to go with my gut here, in combination with what I watched and what Harris said I'm afraid.

    Definitely wasn’t 300-400. Thats a tiny amount. I saw reports of 8,000-10,000 but I don’t know how accurate that is. There were only 23 arrests made


  • #3315
    Hellrazer
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hellrazer


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Have 100% of over 65's gotten covid? Because that is the only way your "stat" makes any sense.

    0.5% of over 65s have died from covid. That is not a measure of chances of dying of covid

    And your "stat" only makes sense if you know the exact number of over 65s tested and who have confirmed positive
    But it also only makes sense if every single over 65 was tested.

    It works both ways.

    The facts are that of our population of 700k over 65s 0.5% have died from covid 19.

    The figure is actually 92% of the deaths of covid 19 occurred in over 65s - thats fact not a makey up stat.

    You can then use that data to assume that the death rate in over 65s is 0.5%

    You havent backed up any of your posts with one piece of verifiable data that can be checked.


  • #3316
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,567 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    User1998 wrote: »
    Definitely wasn’t 300-400. Thats a tiny amount. I saw reports of 8,000-10,000 but I don’t know how accurate that is.

    Could you link to these reports please? A claim like that needs to be backed up.

    All the reports I have read have said 100s, judging by the crowds and allowing for the locals who came out to have a look and a laugh, I estimate 300-400 and that's being generous.

    User1998 wrote: »
    There were only 23 arrests made

    The Commissioner has stated it is an on going investigation.

    Shouldn't be too hard considering the muppets filmed their criminal scumbaggery. :rolleyes:


  • #3317
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,633 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    User1998 wrote: »
    Definitely wasn’t 300-400. Thats a tiny amount. I saw reports of 8,000-10,000 but I don’t know how accurate that is. There were only 23 arrests made

    It was 500 - 1000 in multiple media sources.

    1000 is highly generous to be honest.


  • #3318
    francogarbanzo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 365 ✭✭francogarbanzo


    Boggles wrote: »
    All the reports I have read have said 100s, judging by the crowds and allowing for the locals who came out to have a look and a laugh, I estimate 300-400 and that's being generous.

    Why do you need a report to tell you how many people were there? You can just look with your eyes and see that there were many many more people there than 400.

    I know you really want this to be discredited, but don't straight up lie about the number of people who took part.


  • #3319
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,639 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Boggles wrote: »
    Could you link to these reports please? A claim like that needs to be backed up.

    All the reports I have read have said 100s, judging by the crowds and allowing for the locals who came out to have a look and a laugh, I estimate 300-400 and that's being generous.




    The Commissioner has stated it is an on going investigation.

    Shouldn't be too hard considering the muppets filmed their criminal scumbaggery. :rolleyes:

    Clearly more than 400 from this video, and it doesnt show the full crowd
    https://twitter.com/padraig_reilly/status/1365682810292477960

    Also interesting though is that some of the people in the crowd walking away from the gardai get a few belts with batons for no real reason. Gardai acting the hard men it seems.


  • #3320
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,567 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    francogarbanzo wrote: »
    Why do you need a report to tell you how many people were there? You can just look with your eyes and see that there were many many more people there than 400.

    I know you really want this to be discredited, but don't straight up lie about the number of people who took part.

    So all the reports are lies, what I can see with my own eyes is lies because you say so?

    What do you think of the lad in video you linked to that looked like he was dressed for the races telling the guards they were Luciferians trying to depopulate Ireland by killing them with vaccines?

    You are not really helping yourself are you?

    :)


  • #3321
    User1998
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,326 ✭✭✭User1998


    Boggles wrote: »
    Could you link to these reports please? A claim like that needs to be backed up.

    As I said I don’t know how accurate it is, so it’s hardly a claim. Its quite easy to tell from some of the videos that it was more than 300 people

    Do you have a source to say that 10% of the attendees have been arrested?


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  • #3322
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,567 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    User1998 wrote: »
    As I said I don’t know how accurate it is, so it’s hardly a claim. Its quite easy to tell from some of the videos that it was more than 300 people

    It isn't accurate, I just asked you for your multiple sources for it?


  • #3323
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    timmyntc wrote: »
    His stat is correct - the stat you are referring to is the chance of dying given you have contracted covid.

    The chance of dying from covid also includes the possibility that you never contract it - which means you are a guaranteed survival.

    In that case for the 0.5% chance of dying from covid figure to be true you would need to assume no one else can get covid.

    The correct way to phrase it is so far 0.5% of over 65's have died from covid. This does not in any way talk to the odds of dying from covid.


  • #3324
    User1998
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,326 ✭✭✭User1998


    Boggles wrote: »
    It isn't accurate, I just asked you for your multiple sources for it?

    How do you know that 10% of people that attended have been arrested?


  • #3325
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    For goodness sake, does it matter if it was 400 or 700?

    It was hundreds of people, let's just put it at that.

    Squabbling over the precise number is doing nobody any good here.


  • #3326
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,977 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    For goodness sake, does it matter if it was 400 or 700?

    It was hundreds of people, let's just put it at that.

    Squabbling over the precise number is doing nobody any good here.

    I believe it was between 500 and 600


  • #3327
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,926 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    francogarbanzo wrote: »
    Have you watched the streams? Because to me, it looks like mostly "normal people."

    Really? Well beauty is in the eye of the beholder I suppose...


    normal-people-full-size-2-.jpeg?w=681&h=383&crop=1


  • #3328
    timmyntc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,639 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Deleted User wrote: »
    In that case for the 0.5% chance of dying from covid figure to be true you would need to assume no one else can get covid.

    The correct way to phrase it is so far 0.5% of over 65's have died from covid. This does not in any way talk to the odds of dying from covid.

    You would also have to assume that noone else can become over 65.

    This is how statistics works, its a snapshot in time. And it is accurate.
    With our restrictions, we have seen 0.5% of over 65s die from covid.
    In other countries with laxer restrictions, they have seen similar percentage die from covid.

    So it looks like our restrictions are ineffective or we've hit diminishing returns.


  • #3329
    francogarbanzo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 365 ✭✭francogarbanzo


    Boggles wrote: »
    So all the reports are lies, what I can see with my own eyes is lies because you say so?

    What do you think of the lad in video you linked to that looked like he was dressed for the races telling the guards they were Luciferians trying to depopulate Ireland by killing them with vaccines?

    You are not really helping yourself are you?

    :)

    I haven't read "all the reports." I didn't read any reports in fact. I watched the live stream as it was happening for hours.

    If a report says there were 400 people there, that report is wrong. That's not difficult to understand. You can count the people one by one if you want. You'll see that yourself.

    There were all types of people there, including "conspiracy wackos", scumbags with fireworks, and regular joes who are fed up with the governments response to the pandemic. My point, after watching the events take place myself and not via someone else's opinion, is that those in the latter cohort made up the majority of those in attendance.

    Obviously it's not possible to read someone's mind or intentions or beliefs from a video, so you have to observe their actions. A vast majority of people were peacefully protesting as is their right. Some people were violent, wrongfully.


  • #3330
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    timmyntc wrote: »
    You would also have to assume that noone else can become over 65.

    This is how statistics works, its a snapshot in time. And it is accurate.
    With our restrictions, we have seen 0.5% of over 65s die from covid.
    In other countries with laxer restrictions, they have seen similar percentage die from covid.

    So it looks like our restrictions are ineffective or we've hit diminishing returns.

    True - if you have 500 over-65s COVID cases and 0.5% die from the virus, then there's no reason not to assume that if that number were 50,000 cases, the percentage mortality would approximately remain the same.


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  • #3331
    Hellrazer
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,097 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hellrazer


    Deleted User wrote: »
    In that case for the 0.5% chance of dying from covid figure to be true you would need to assume no one else can get covid.


    That makes no sense - there is another part of the population ie the under 65s whos stats can be worked out separately is the other 4.2 million people in teh country.



    Your post makes no sense if you assume that no one else gets covid.
    The correct way to phrase it is so far 0.5% of over 65's have died from covid. This does not in any way talk to the odds of dying from covid.

    Yes it does - it can be surmised from that figure that your chance of dying from covid if you are over 65 is 0.5%

    Thats what statistics is all about.


This discussion has been closed.
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