COVID-19: Vaccine and testing procedures Megathread Part 3 - Read OP

JTMan

JTMan wrote: »

FT on the J&J production problems here (paywall):

- Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 vaccine supplier Catalent had to resort to checking vials by hand for two weeks. Automated visual verification line not working.
- Staff moved from other parts of the company to complete the vital checks manually.
- J&J had to scale up its vaccine substance manufacturing from a small facility to a large one in the Netherlands. While far faster than usual, took longer than hoped for.
- “To accelerate production and expand capacity, we have entered into new agreements with established manufacturers".
- But still confident of delivering 100m by June 2021 in the US and 200m doses in 2021 in the EU.

Vaccine is f*cked. Had dealings with Catalent a few years back in a previous job. I hope they improved

Caquas

Caquas wrote: »

I'll give this one more shot, but it is galling to be constantly accused of not understanding the precise issue that I raised (at post no. 1987).

Whether the delay in our vaccine rollout is due to the level of supplies coming into the country is an entirely secondary issue and it is nonsense to claim, as Embraer187 did, that "Ireland is doing exceptionally well on the vaccine roll out" because we have used almost all our available supplies.

It disturbs me that so many posters here fail to understand this point. It seems that what matters to them is that blame should not attach to those administering the vaccines, even if our rollout is clearly lagging behind our nearest neighbour.

Imagine a business with the hottest new product in the world. People are literally begging for the stuff. The retail manager says to the CEO "I know we have only met a fraction of the demand and our nearest competitor has sold 10 times more than us but we're really doing exceptionally well. Look - our shelves are almost empty!

Or is this the normal business model of the HSE? Look at those waiting lists!

For the thousandth time. The vaccines are not available to us to be able to do it quicker. There are not shelves packed with doses waiting to be sent to us.

I hope you are deliberately trolling, otherwise....

Apogee

Big ramp up of sequencing of samples to monitor variants:

ACitizenErased

Apogee wrote: »

Big ramp up of sequencing of samples to monitor variants:

I still think its way too little to make a definitive conclusion on anything tbh, its a tiny sample size

eigrod

embraer170 wrote: »

Has he been given a date?

He got a call from GP’s receptionist to say Thursday 4th March and they would confirm time beforehand. I am a little sceptical having heard some rural GPs didn’t get their supply as promised last week. All aged 90+ should be vaccinated by now and it’s a bit disheartening when you see other areas in the country have already finished 80-85 year olds.

DaSilva

Apogee wrote: »

Big ramp up of sequencing of samples to monitor variants:

Hmm, are they actually sequencing the samples or just counting S gene failures, if its the latter, it doesn't guarantee its B.1.1.7, could be some other variant...

Apogee

DaSilva wrote: »

Hmm, are they actually sequencing the samples or just counting S gene failures, if its the latter, it doesn't guarantee its B.1.1.7, could be some other variant...

They mentioned at a recent NPHET press conference that they are doing whole genome sequencing - presumably a mix of methods?

brickster69

Parisiens having a nice Saturday afternoon today

https://twitter.com/LDCNewsagency/status/1365726014341529604

cian68

brickster69 wrote: »

Parisiens having a nice Saturday afternoon today

Looks like Bray seafront yesterday, just with more masks.

Caquas

Deleted User wrote: »

For the thousandth time. The vaccines are not available to us to be able to do it quicker. There are not shelves packed with doses waiting to be sent to us.

I hope you are deliberately trolling, otherwise....

I get it... really... I have always gotten it....we are adminstering the vaccines that we have received. And yes, we are doing better than some other EU countries in that respect. What I don't accept is that we are "doing exceptionally well on the vaccine rollout".

That was Embraer170's claim which I challenged in my post 1987 and since then I've had a half-dozen posters insult and belittle me without addressing the real issue which I set out repeatedly. No one accused them of being trolls but you suggest I may one, without any addressing the points made in my posts. You think I am saying there are shelves packed with doses although I finished my last post with "Look - our shelves are almost empty!"

astrofool

Caquas wrote: »

I get it... really... I have always gotten it....we are adminstering the vaccines that we have received. And yes, we are doing better than some other EU countries in that respect. What I don't accept is that we are "doing exceptionally well on the vaccine rollout".

That was Embraer170's claim which I challenged in my post 1987 and since then I've had a half-dozen posters insult and belittle me without addressing the real issue which I set out repeatedly. No one accused them of being trolls but you suggest I may one, without any addressing the points made in my posts. You think I am saying there are shelves packed with doses although I finished my last post with "Look - our shelves are almost empty!"

You got all your numbers completely ar*eways and then kept on digging down on them while offering up zero suggestions as to how we change the fact that our numbers are purely down to supply.

The UK has plants producing vaccine which is has effectively nationalised to keep away from other countries, they emergency approved vaccines ahead of other countries and are not following manufacturer's instructions on dosing for the vaccines, in addition, their majority vaccine may not be as effective in the older generation (data pending) or against some of the variants of the disease. They also have had much more cases and deaths per capita than Ireland has, and in the end, after the vaccine rollout, we might end up 3-6 weeks behind them, but with a much lower death count than they had.

NeuralNetwork

What I don’t get is all the headlines about EU countries going outside the programme and so on, while you’ve Denmark saying it will be finishing by June, using just the EU supplies.

It doesn’t seem we are short of vaccines. It’s ramping up, but there does seem to be a lot of headlines about panicking governments who seem to have piles of vaccines from the EU programme that haven’t been injected.

I wonder if this is just a case of paper not refusing ink and blame someone else for poor domestic logistics?

Or is Denmark being far too optimistic?

ACitizenErased

Wow....

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1365735751149846534?s=21

lbj666

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Wow....

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1365735751149846534?s=21

Presumably includes curevac? Novavax?

Stark

I did a back of the envelope calculation that included Astrazeneca fulfilling its promises to the EU for Q2 (as opposed to the 50% reduction included in government forecast) and arrived at the same conclusion of 99% of adults getting first dose by end of June. Overall, I assumed 1.6m doses of Pfizer, 1.8m doses of AZ and 600,000 doses of J&J in Q2 (don't think we're getting enough Moderna in Q2 to make a tangible difference). I'm guessing Sweden are going off similar. Can't imagine Curevac/Novavax arriving soon enough to make a difference.

astrofool

NeuralNetwork wrote: »

What I don’t get is all the headlines about EU countries going outside the programme and so on, while you’ve Denmark saying it will be finishing by June, using just the EU supplies.

It doesn’t seem we are short of vaccines. It’s ramping up, but there does seem to be a lot of headlines about panicking governments who seem to have piles of vaccines from the EU programme that haven’t been injected.

I wonder if this is just a case of paper not refusing ink and blame someone else for poor domestic logistics?

Or is Denmark being far too optimistic?

We're going off confirmed, or almost confirmed figures, other governments are going off likely to be confirmed figures. As long as we keep up our supplies into arms figures, we'll be the same or ahead of most of the EU (mostly because we're fairly pro-vaccine here, so won't hit the same vaccine hesitancy issues afflicting other rollouts).

All the extra supply being bought is for after the EU contracts are fulfilled or going with another different vaccine outside the EU system (e.g. Sputnik, sinovac).

JTMan

Stark wrote: »

Can't imagine Curevac/Novavax arriving soon enough to make a difference.

An Italian member of the EMA technical committee said this week on Italian radio that Curevac and Novavax will get EMA approval by April.

Sweden think April for Curevac too.

Sanjuro

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Wow....

https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1365735751149846534?s=21

Sorry, could someone break this down for me like I'm not very smart. Which is fairly true. How are Sweden forecasting upwards? And how can the same metric be applied to Ireland?

plodder

gmisk wrote: »

My other half got vaccine (AZ) on Friday afternoon as did some of his colleagues.
He is in his 30s and works in healthcare.
He really isn't great today shivering and aching all over and hasn't left bed. A few others complaining of similar things today. Hopefully he gets over it pretty quickly.

Same with my daughter last night after getting the AZ yesterday morning. But, she is a lot better today. I was surprised at this as she had tested positive for the bug previously, with no symptoms.

astrofool

Sanjuro wrote: »

Sorry, could someone break this down for me like I'm not very smart. Which is fairly true. How are Sweden forecasting upwards? And how can the same metric be applied to Ireland?

Basically, AstraZeneca are saying they will have all the promised supplies for Q2, instead of the 50% that was forecast (reading between the lines, it looks like they'll be sourcing some of it outside the EU, which is "interesting" to say the least), if that holds true, then the rollout also goes faster, so countries can revise their schedule. It could also be optimistic approval and supply of Novavax and Curevac (or revised supplies for Pfizer and Moderna).

Sanjuro

astrofool wrote: »

Basically, AstraZeneca are saying they will have all the promised supplies for Q2, instead of the 50% that was forecast (reading between the lines, it looks like they'll be sourcing some of it outside the EU, which is "interesting" to say the least), if that holds true, then the rollout also goes faster, so countries can revise their schedule.

Many thanks

NeuralNetwork

It’s probably just a case of getting EMA regulatory approval for Indian production sites or something like that to increase volumes.

Scuid Mhór

astrofool wrote: »

Basically, AstraZeneca are saying they will have all the promised supplies for Q2, instead of the 50% that was forecast (reading between the lines, it looks like they'll be sourcing some of it outside the EU, which is "interesting" to say the least), if that holds true, then the rollout also goes faster, so countries can revise their schedule. It could also be optimistic approval and supply of Novavax and Curevac (or revised supplies for Pfizer and Moderna).

How are AZ fluctuating between 50% and 100% over merely a couple of days? Those are extreme differentials.

Stark

more of a communication thing. It was reported that there would be a shortfall from EU factories but that was quickly followed up with a statement from AZ saying they'd make up the shortfall from elsewhere.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

How are AZ fluctuating between 50% and 100% over merely a couple of days? Those are extreme differentials.

AZ comes out and says we can only supply 50% from EU factories (or EMA approved factories). When a company applies for drug approval the factories are listed and approved as well.

AZ then come out and say we can supply 100% of the EU order (if you approve other factories, we will get an application into you).

kittensmittens

Does anyone have a link to the latest schedule for the groups being vacc?

agoodpunt

at 255000 we 'll still be locked down at xmas

humberklog

My parents got their first jab (Pfiser) yesterday. They're late 80' and in very good health. Both parents feeling fine; a bit tired, a little sore. They're mentally a foot taller- so much happier since they got news of their appointments. 2nd jab is 26th March.

However on Tuesday my Scottish friend mentioned his father had to go into hospital that day which isn't unknown as he has mild angina but otherwise in good shape.
Both parents have had both their jabs (AZ). The last one about 2 weeks ago.
My friend's father died this morning. From what he told me (things are still a bit sketchy) the fairly routine procedure didn't work as it usually would. Apparently the antibiotics that had worked in the past this time had zero of the expected effect and the doctors failed to find successful alternative.

There's still a lot of info to come for the family- coroners report etc. and as there was underlying issues and it is more than likely an unfortunate coincidence but I thought to post about it here for the record.

astrofool

humberklog wrote: »

My parents got their first jab (Pfiser) yesterday. They're late 80' and in very good health. Both parents feeling fine; a bit tired, a little sore. They're mentally a foot taller- so much happier since they got news of their appointments. 2nd jab is 26th March.

However on Tuesday my Scottish friend mentioned his father had to go into hospital that day which isn't unknown as he has mild angina but otherwise in good shape.
Both parents have had both their jabs (AZ). The last one about 2 weeks ago.
My friend's father died this morning. From what he told me (things are still a bit sketchy) the fairly routine procedure didn't work as it usually would. Apparently the antibiotics that had worked in the past this time had zero of the expected effect and the doctors failed to find successful alternative.

There's still a lot of info to come for the family- coroners report etc. and as there was underlying issues and it is more than likely an unfortunate coincidence but I thought to post about it here for the record.

Very sad news for your friends father. It's very unlikely that treatment for a virus would have a knock on effect for a bacterial infection and the efficacy of antibiotics.

blackcard

Stark wrote: »

I did a back of the envelope calculation that included Astrazeneca fulfilling its promises to the EU for Q2 (as opposed to the 50% reduction included in government forecast) and arrived at the same conclusion of 99% of adults getting first dose by end of June. Overall, I assumed 1.6m doses of Pfizer, 1.8m doses of AZ and 600,000 doses of J&J in Q2 (don't think we're getting enough Moderna in Q2 to make a tangible difference). I'm guessing Sweden are going off similar. Can't imagine Curevac/Novavax arriving soon enough to make a difference.

On your calculations, how many will have received a second dose by the end of June?