Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120462697#Comment_120462697

You must surely agree then that when you say "I have no issue with either side respectfully remembering their dead and commemorating respectfully. In fact, I think they have to be allowed to" that you would be selective in how you apply this. And therefore since it's limited in extent, it's really a bit meaningless. What about the hurt of families of British soldiers say, who were blown up? Are they of less importance?

Seth Brundle

mod: ok - I'm reeling this back in again.

Back to discussing Brexit and NI

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120463070#Comment_120463070

Biden said he is Irish. He lives in America and works in America.

On the other hand, Downcow and his community have been in N. Ireland for 400 years, they pay their taxes to the British government, many from that community over the generations have joined and served in British forces, they follow the British educational system ....and certain posters on this website will disagree that they should be allowed call themselves British.

If Biden can call himself "Irish", then surely Downcow and his community are British (they do live in part of the UK, which has N.Ireland incorporated as part of the Union flag/jack), and Republicans have no right to take that identity away from them. This goes to part of the Brexit discussions, where Unionists see the EU and the Irish government as trying to take away part of the identity of unionists and to undermine the union by creating a border in the Irish sea.

Edit: sorry Seth, only saw your post above after I posted this.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120464102#Comment_120464102

This goes to part of the Brexit discussions, where Unionists see the EU and the Irish government as trying to take away part of the identity of unionists and to undermine the union by creating a border in the Irish sea.

The border in the Irish Sea was a British government solution after Unionists rejected Theresa May's deal.

There is no other solution to the problem partition has caused for British sovereignty. It's either:

1) Partition has come back to bite them or:

2) they just don't care about Unionists and Ireland and took the selfish way out.

Either way, a border in the Irish Sea is their decision and 515 - 29 of their elected reps have sealed that deal and signed it into British law.

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120464210#Comment_120464210

No other solution because republicans had warned of violence if there were customs posts along the actual border - and there were some explosions if I recall correctly - to show it was no idle threat.

Do you agree if Biden has the right to call himself "Irish" then Downcow and northern unionists have the right to call themselves "British" if they so wish, to at least differentiate themselves from those who live south of the border? The British flag incorporates N. Ireland, which is where northern unionists live and pay their taxes etc.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120464342#Comment_120464342

They could have ignored those 'warnings'. Loyalists also warned that there would be violence if an Irish Sea border was codified in British law by a sovereign ' back in control' parliament.

The British proceeded anyhow and overwhelmingly voted for an Irish Sea border.

And of course, Britain and even Unionists stridently said from the start they didn't want a hard border on the island again. Belligerent Unionists only credible solution is however a 'hard border' on the island.

https://www.politico.eu/article/inspectors-brexit-eu-uk-checks-northern-ireland-ports-threats/

*Biden and downcow's chosen identity has nothing to do with this thread as the moderation has pointed out.

FrancieBrady

Grainne might be a bit late to the party as it is quite clear Sunak will let this meddlesome Protocol Bill wither on the vine.

What Unionist strategy (if it can be called that) has gotten is not the undermining/end of the GFA but consolidation and reaffirmation of it as the only game in town.

https://twitter.com/AmandaFBelfast/status/1645755956607819776

Francis McM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120464861#Comment_120464861

After the UK voted on Brexit, there were warnings not to put customs posts along the border, and extremist republicans exploded devices in Derry and South Armagh, no doubt to let everyone know "They have'nt gone away you know", as G.A. (who said he was never in the IRA but many people think he was) once said. That was to do with Brexit, and no customs posts were built between the Rep of Ireland and the UK, along the land border.

In Grainne's tweet, which you posted, it does not mention Brexit once. Only the GFA, and she has the cheek to harp on about UK actions recklessly undermining it, while as usual never saying anything about the republican efforts to undermine it. No wonder the NI branch of Amnesty lost all credibility a long time ago. Anyway, back to the thread title instead of deflecting to Grainne and her Amnesty N.I. office please.

Seth Brundle

mod: several off-topic posts deleted.

@Francis McM - do not post in this thread for the next 48hours

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120464966#Comment_120464966

'Extremist republicans have been active since the GFA. They never went away.

There were no bombs exploded to warn against customs posts nor can I find a warning from disidents to that effect...can you post a link to when this happened?

Plenty of warnings from the PSNI and MI5 though and the Irish government

Her comment was about the UK's legislative agenda that will be discussed by Sunak and Biden. That includes the Protocol Bill.

If you think Biden won't be discussing it with Sunak you are in cuckoo land tbh.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120464342#Comment_120464342

There was another solution, which was a softer form of Brexit that didn't require either a land border or a sea border for NI. The DUP strongly opposed that, and as far as I can see still strongly oppose it. The conclusion must be that the DUP wants a border that will undermine the GFA; their gripe is that they got the wrong border.

Bearing in mind that the DUP and those to the right of them never accepted the GFA in the first place, their protestations that the GFA is being undermined by a policy that they enthusiastically support lack credibility.

I get that unionists resent the sea border; that's perfectly reasonable. But a policy of opposing that by advocating measures that will require a land border instead is a complete non-starter, and moreover shameful to anyone who advocates it.

So what are unionists of integrity to do? I think they have to start by being honest about how they got into the mess they're in, and the part unionism played in creating that mess. They also have to accept that it has taken seven years to create this clusterfûck, and there is unlikely to be a quick way out.

They only way forward is to reverse the policy that creates the need for a border; hard Brexit. With the general disenchantment for Brexit in GB, the tide is flowing in that direction, but it is still flowing slowly. At the very least a change of government in Westminster will be required, and even after that progress towards a softer Brexit will be incremental. But if it's worth saving the union, then it's worth spending time saving the union.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120467659#Comment_120467659

I doubt the DUP will ever be at the vanguard of leading Unionism back into the ambit of the EU.

They will now insult and impede any progress they deem to be coming from the new arrangements. Unless the Unionist people completely turn their backs on those who have led them into this cul de sac we are in for a period of disruption and further failure.

Sadly, as we can see from downcow's voting intentions that introspection you talk of might be a way off yet.

The danger for Unionism is that they disrupt and destroyed before (Sunningdale etc) but they failed in the long term to stave off their worst fears.

This time, those who want change for NI and the rest of Ireland are more vocal and politically stronger while the resolve of those who backed them (the British) is much weaker. The loudest voices calling for change, 'that NI cannot continue as it is', are The Alliance. To me that is significant and should be a warning to supporters of the Union.

They'll lundy those best disposed to the staus quo and drive them away and they will split and divide Unionism again.

Peregrinus

The DUP are in a psychologically vulnerable position. On the one hand, they are politically, emotionally, historically and however else you like committed to a union in which NI is very much the dependent partner - dependent on GB, which controls the Westminster Parliament and government. On the other hand, GB clearly doesn't care about the union — or, at any rate, they have other things they care more about, for which they are willing to "subjugate", to use Jim Allister's favour word, the union. So the DUP is fighting hard for GB to have the right and power to stab them in the back at a time while GB is actually stabbing them in the back. For a movement that, at the best of times, is not characterised by a high degree of psychological or emotional security, that's got to be pretty terrifying.

I think it makes for great instability. It's hard to predict how the DUP will react. What they need to do is reverse the stance of a lifetime, face up to the mistakes they have made, invest in building relationships both within NI and — even more — in GB with the people they need to work with and win over if they are to get out of the bind they are in. In the short term, they need to reverse their support for hard Brexit, a position which has proved disastrous, and work with others who seek a softer Brexit. In the longer term, they need to build support for the union in GB, something which they can only do by making the union appear attractive and worthwhile to people in GB.

But nothing in the entire history of the DUP suggests that they are capable of this, and I shudder to think what they might do instead.

FrancieBrady

As if on cue....

I know Arlene is out of politics (kinda) but this attitude of insult was prevalent on Nolan this AM and from Sammy etc. What Unionism hopes to achieve here other than votes from those who would likely vote for them anyway is anyone's guess.

https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1645902495418404867

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120468676#Comment_120468676

She might be out of politics but we can assume any former leader is reflecting the attitude, unfiltered and without the pressure of a Whip, of the originating party - barring extreme exceptions like Jeremy Corbyn.

At this stage we all know what the game is and there's a degree of redundancy even highlighting these moments. The DUP are a regressive party who offers zero forward momentum to Northern Ireland and possesses and almost deplorable lack of nous or basic politicking skill. Of course, they'll probably be fine in May, despite any wishes otherwise, bolstered by the fear of 'Dem Uns. Not like Trumpism and Tory politics hasn't shown the value of always being on the defensive, always sloganeering and in campaign mode. And we know it works 'cos of our resident Dynamic Goalpost Positioning Expert.

It's all they have; nobody wants their economics (well, what are the DUP's economics? Who knows), nobody wants their social views, all they have is belligerence.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469258#Comment_120469258

As far as I can extrapolate, DUP economics boil down to extracting various levels and sorts of ecomomic concessions from Westminster using thinly veiled threats of a return to violence.

Not sure how well this will work in a UI. Only time will tell.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120469258#Comment_120469258

(well, what are the DUP's economics? Who knows),

There was an idea that they were fiscally coinservative but that notion has been destroyed by the squandering of monies and worse at Red Sky, RHI and the allegations around NAMA.

retalivity

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120468676#Comment_120468676

The same woman who accepted an award from Hilary 'worse than Biden' Clinton as a 'woman of peace', and all smiles meeting him earlier. Hypocrite of the highest order.

I see Jeffrey was sidelined as well, by both biden and rishi. Take the hint lads...

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120470581#Comment_120470581

Foster, Dodds, Wilson got more press today than Donalson. He is not in control of the party.

hotmail.com

Obviously his Black and Tans gaffe tonight will give a boost to the rebel songs, which have been so condemned by FG and FF politicians and supporters.

Let's hope he utters support for a united Ireland. One wonders how FG and FF will respond to that. It will put them in an awkward position if the Lord Almighty (a US president) supports something.

political analyst

Are the DUP waiting for the outcome of the NI council elections before they decided whether or not to go back into power-sharing at Stormont? So what if they lost some seats to Allister's party, the TUV?! The chances are that the fall-out of accepting the Windsor Framework will fade away by the time of the next NI Assembly election.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471555#Comment_120471555

Donaldson says he is assessing the report from his 8 person panel, then they will make a submission to the British government, see the response and take it from there.

Basically they can keep this going for as long as they want.

FrancieBrady

Interesting graph here from the recent NILT poll.

Not so much the steady rise in the UI sentiment.

But the long term decline in faith in devolution since the GFA.

50 years of a one party NI government and PM failed the people, periods of Direct Rule failed the people and devolution has failed the people and continues to.

That sentiment has plummeted since Brexit.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120471804#Comment_120471804

According to pro unity John Doyle that poll should be viewed with caution.

"The extent of NILT’s inaccuracy ....... means that this series of polls should be used with extreme caution, if at all, to discuss political support or attitudes to constitutional change, either as a one off or over time and arguably be excluded from “poll of polls” aggregated results as they inaccurately skew the average".

https://www.ria.ie/news/publications-arins-analysis-and-research-ireland-north-and-south/explaining-different-results

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120474170#Comment_120474170

Did you miss this bit?

 Moreover, this large underestimation of Sinn Féin, in particular and an over estimation of Alliance, is a feature of NILT polls over the quarter century post GFA period, with some polls showing Sinn Féin support as low as 9%. 

That suggests the rise in support for a UI is higher than shown.

But on the main point, disillusin with devolution/powersharing, by 2018 Lucid Talk was showing only 19% were interested in that.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120474296#Comment_120474296

Obviously not, Doyle was commenting on the accuracy of the polling which can only be measured against election results. They are not a good polling company to rely upon. So much so, that Doyle reckons they should be excluded from poll of polls.

That doesn't change just because it has gone your way this time. If they have improved you'll only find out at the next election.

jh79

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120474296#Comment_120474296

Separate reply as the other bit isn't related. NILT are not a good polling company.

So 70/30 in favour of remaining in the UK? Is that good in your opinion?

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120474367#Comment_120474367

Any chance you'd address the point made about the future of devolution?

If you stuck a wet finger in the wind you would know it has failed.

standardg60

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120474525#Comment_120474525

Any chance you would actually answer a direct question?

You're not the only one but this constant obfuscation, whataboutery, and moving of goalposts is extremely tiresome, lord knows what it's like for the politicians.

FrancieBrady

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120474608#Comment_120474608

I didn't raise that issue of aUI. I raised a very specific one.

But because some don't like the finding they try their best to deflect away to something else.

I'm pro Unity, Of course I don't think 70-30 is a good thing.