Joe Biden Presidency thread *Please read OP - Threadbanned Users Added 4/5/21*

everlast75

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452476#Comment_118452476

Cheers.

And what would I like for dinner, Thursday week, as you apparently know me so well?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452634#Comment_118452634

It's true though, isn't it?

Let's say the same poster quoted polling showing a 70pc approval rating for Biden.

Would you have come along and said, "Ah sure we can't trust the polling as it's only 1-year into his presidency"?

Clearly not.

Ditto with President Trump.

If Trump were performing desperately bad in the polling during his presidency, you wouldn't have come along and said:

"Ah sure we can't trust the polling, as Trump is only 1 year into his 4-year term".

It's about being consistent. And consistent you are not.

everlast75

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452713#Comment_118452713

This is a biden thread... Why are you bringing up trump?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452817#Comment_118452817

I'm making a principle about poll interpretation.

That your interpretation about the Biden polling would not have applied to Trump in the equivalent position.

The point is to argue that your assessment of Biden is less than objective.

But thanks for avoiding the central point in my post. I appreciate it.

Tony EH

The only poll that matters is an election. Everything else is bunkum.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452872#Comment_118452872

...which you wouldn't say if Biden was at 70pc approval.

And which you wouldn't have said in the past if Trump was at 70pc disapproval after 1-year, too.

It's moving the goalposts - and we all know why.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452895#Comment_118452895

You don't have a fucking clue what I would say.

everlast75

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452845#Comment_118452845

That's not what happened though, is it?

You, like others here, post poll numbers when you cannot criticise a policy.

I pointed out it's 1 year into a 4 year term.

You retorted by *telling me* what I would say in a different scenario. I objected to that.

You're not making a principle. You're making an assumption.

And if you insist on comparing how I'd react with trump, his tenure was filled with at least a half dozen scandals per day, so there was plenty to criticise with him. Pointing out poll numbers was never necessary.

Faugheen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452895#Comment_118452895

This is bollocks. If Biden was at 70% I would say an election matters even more because you still need those people to turn out.

Encouraging voters to turn out matters if it's 70% approval or 70% disapproval, because the only poll that matters is the election.

Opinion polls are a snapshot in time. Nothing more, nothing less.

You can have a 70% disapproval rate and still win the White House, likewise you can have a 70% approval rate and lose the White House.

MisterAnarchy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118452872#Comment_118452872

I didnt hear any of ye saying that in 2016-2019.

No siree.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453481#Comment_118453481

You don't have the first clue what I said in 2016-2019.

MisterAnarchy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453483#Comment_118453483

I do , I can read.

Tony EH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453485#Comment_118453485

a. You really, really don't.

b. One wonders.

Danzy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118443735#Comment_118443735

The Democrats are in danger of becoming a party of rich white kids on either coast.

That's a dead end and similar to the approach taken during the Corbyn years.

If the blue collar Democrats don't fight back the party will be flushed away.

Tell me how

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453527#Comment_118453527

Democrat vote percentages have matched areas with increased education, employment and prosperity. If that continues to be in costal areas, that is actually more of an indictment of Republican capabilities than it is of dropping Democrat popularity.

Besides, Democrats increased their vote share in Texas by 3% in the last election, Georgia 4%, Arizona by 5%, Arkansas and Mississippi by 1%.

Since then, Republicans have supported an insurrection, tried to reintroduce to overturn Roe v Wade, and caused many Trump voters to die from Covid as they refused to get the vaccine or to wear masks and practice social distancing.

Which party is really in danger do you think? I'm not suggesting they'll never again win an election, but its abundantly clear that any popularity they hold is either a consequence of misinformation, or a desire to be living in the a time long past.

If we were predicting the future, I'd put a fair amount on younger Republicans seeing they are on a hiding to nothing and flipping the party to focus on their constituents needs for healthcare, housing, education etc and if they are savvy enough, being quite capable of convincing the electorate that the Democrats haven't provided these things and that they should.

Undermining science, restricting access to healthcare, decrying education, nurturing electoral mistrust will grab some headlines, but ultimately will be seen as the sham that it is.

Even if I'm right in the above, it isn't about to happen any time soon, but it is ultimately going to be the way forward.

Brian?

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453527#Comment_118453527

That’s a hot take right there. In November 2020 Biden won Georgia and Arizona, increased the Democratic share of the vote in Texas and only lost Ohio in the rust belt. Added to that, the Dems picked up both Senate seats in Georgia.

I know you like to regurgitate whatever talking points you pick up from right wing echo chambers, but they have zero rational basis.

arthursway

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453527#Comment_118453527

I agree Dems need to realise that not everyone works in tech.

They are completely out of touch at the moment and the 2021 gubernatorial elections proved as such.

everlast75

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453527#Comment_118453527

Wishcasting 101

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453527#Comment_118453527

And yet , the Republicans have lost the popular vote in all but one Election in the last 40 years and as others have pointed out the Democrats have increased their voting % in multiple "purple" states in the last Election.

It is true however that the Democrats need to find a better way to connect with the "centre" in the US to help them overcome the impact of the Electoral College etc. It's one of the big issues with a 2 party system, it's virtually impossible to satisfy the entire spectrum of opinions and positions that notionally fall under either parties "umbrella" so you'll always end up alienating someone who you might expect to vote for you.

However , in terms of winning Elections , the really big thing that the Democrats need to do is focus more on local elections.

The GOP have taken a "bottoms up" approach to winning elections and in a lot of ways it's working - They have control of the County and State level apparatus in key areas and that allows them to tip the balance in their favour by changing election rules and redistricting.

The Democrats have a more "Federal 1st" approach which I suppose is consistent with their general policies but it hurts them down ballot and will continue to do so until they begin to fight for those seemingly low level positions ,like County Clerk etc. that actually have an outsized impact at election time.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118454004#Comment_118454004

You are putting an interesting amount of weight on a gubernatorial election in Virginia in which no incumbent was running.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118453548#Comment_118453548

"Which party is really in danger do you think?"

At this time, the Republicans are certainly doing a better job of alienating voters than Democrats, and are more likely to sooner fracture in a spectacular explosion, if they're going to fracture.

The catch is that this isn't so much a matter of policies, though there are certainly some differences of opinion within the Republican party on some of them, but a matter of behaviour. The whole "this election is stolen" business, Trump's totally unpresidential behaviour, etc, are doing them absolutely no favours. However, that can be 'turned off' quickly enough if they ever decide they want to, as has been demonstrated in the last two rounds of elections where candidates who did so did better. The converse is true for the 2020 elections. Yes, Georgia flipped both Senators, but the two Republican candidates had very actively associated themselves with Trump. I suspect that won't be an association next time.

The Democrat problem is more a matter of policy differences, they don't have a 'stupid, high profile, but easily fixable' problem which affects their appeal to many voters. They come across as rational and mature compared to their news-grabbing opposition which means that their schism may be on a longer fuse, but is also much harder to deal with.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118454489#Comment_118454489

Without overweighting it, the Democrat gubernatorial candidate was the incumbent Lt Governor, so he wasn't exactly coming out of nowhere. It's also worth noting that the attorney general was a Democrat incumbent running for a third term, and also lost the statewide election. There's a reason why the election attracted so much attention in the post-ballot dissections.

Igotadose

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118462624#Comment_118462624

Your argument would ring true, if the Republicans actually had any policy other than "NO CRT in schools!" Seems to be about it. Their 2020 platform was "I'm Donald Trump, vote for me."

Democrats need to take the gloves off a bit more and not try to heal. Too late for that with such an authoritarian threat. Now apparently schools can be sued by parents for books the parents object to. The suer gets reimbursed, too. Just like in Texas.

Manic Moran

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118464511#Comment_118464511

The catch, I think, is that they actually do have policies other than "No CRT in schools". You just don't hear about it much, especially at the national level when Republicans generally prefer to keep things at the State level, which is fine because Alabama candidates can be anti-abortion and Nevada candidates can be pro-choice. For example, yes, Youngkin had a very public 'No CRT in schools' campaign. He also had "Abolish state grocery tax", "double the standard tax deduction", "require voter approval for property tax hikes,", "Reduce police/citizen interactions by use of hand-held speed cameras", "Improve the DMV and VEC" (which were much lambasted over the previous couple of years), "Fire the parole board" and "create an anti-human trafficking task force" and a bunch of other specific campaign positions. If you think he won just because he was against CRT in schools, you're missing some pretty critical issues.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118465496#Comment_118465496

Also missing out the key issue, he ran against school closures and its something the Dems are clearly worried about when it comes to the mid terms judging from the increasingly aggressive tone regarding keeping them open from that party.

Biden was loaned votes by "moderate" conservatives who rightfully decided he was lesser of two evils, many of those are parents and they won't forget which party is associated with school closure.

Heck look at the betting for 2024, RDS of Florida is one of the hot fav's and whether people like it or not keeping the schools open has done wonders for his political profile.

Manic Moran

Yeah, although there are plenty of studies out, they generally show more or less what I as the parent of a tween and pre-schooler know already. Their social development skills at a formative age have been hampered, and that could affect them for many years.

That's before things like "closures affect lower income more" or "Closures affect metal health" or the simple economics of "School closures mean a parent has to stop working or pay childcare if they want someone in their house"

There's 'respecting the COVID threat', but there's also 'respecting that there's other things in the world to worry about other than COVID'.

Rjd2

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118465568#Comment_118465568

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1480986849506123780

I think Biden and his team know this, but obviously its very complicated, the teacher unions are Dem and they are always for better or worse going to lean towards closure and their is some random Dems in very blue areas who are content to close very quickly which is fine, but doesn't help the party overall and provides plenty for the GOP to smear the whole party with.

Its tough, because this new variant is rampant , but ultimately for Biden , on one side the Dems are considered way to cautious while some of the left consider him way to lax when it comes to schools, he simply can't win sadly.

Melanchthon

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118468403#Comment_118468403

Is there anywhere else in the world though that's kept schools shut as long as some (democrat) parts of the USA?

As in the perception might be completely legitimate

Quin_Dub

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118468403#Comment_118468403

The other factor is the low vaccine uptake and widespread challenging of Mask mandates etc.

We can open schools reasonably safely here (and across Europe and elsewhere) because of the high levels of compliance with vaccinations and mask wearing and all the other transmission reduction efforts.

Most places in the US don't have that safety net to rely on.

It's one or the other in terms of safety - If Americans want their kids back in school , then get vaccinated and wear bloody masks until this crap is gone.

Translation: Please don’t run stories that counter the government narrative.

https://mobile.twitter.com/cspan/status/1481660630360903683/video/1

His own attorney general said that most is not disinformation(deliberate), in fact only a tiny minority.

How are misinformed(unintentional) people to know when they are dealing with misinformation. He should specifically mention what he’s talking about.