Relaxation of Restrictions, Part VIII *Read OP For Mod Warnings*

JRant

growleaves wrote: »

I anticipate a move from Level 4 to Level 2+2 in mid-April.

I never thought about that one. Just like the Spanish inquisition, nobody will see it coming

woodchuck

Mr. Karate wrote: »

That would mean they have a plan to reopen. Doesn't seem like it at the moment. Saying stuff like "Christmas 2021 isn't looking good." barely 2 months into the year is a sign that we'll locked down for the majority of it.

Surely they have to be working on a plan in the background though. I'm just surprised we've heard absolutely nothing about one yet.

There are so many sectors that need to know when they'll allowed to reopen, even if it's only a best case scenario.

JRant

MM looked fairly rattled trying to answer questions there. He wouldn't fill you with any sort of confidence with those replies.

Silentcorner

walus wrote: »

Well, no one is also asking how on earth the independent governments of many countries arrived at the same lockdown-until-vaccine strategy either. If they were truly independent with their own decision making capacity and freedom of choice, surely we would have seen more than just 1 or 2 strategies being implemented across the globe, right?

We all went into to lockdown last March, no one could have predicted we'd have vaccines so fast for a virus previously unknown, we are in for an interesting few years as the scale of the damage we are doing starts to be realised, to be going into year 2 of this without having learned a thing is beyond odd!!!


Why don't we have cheap, accurate rapid tests...which would allow us to open up safely
Why don't we have recommended therapeutics...which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we talking about the seasonality factor....which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we being advised to boost our immune systems naturally...which would allow us to open up safely

We don't have a media that is presenting alternatives in a meaningful manner.

All our hopes are on vaccines....to save us from the inhumane lockdown strategies.

Our hospitals have probably had their quietest year in living memory, especially outside of the two surges in March/April and Dec/Jan.

hynesie08

Mr. Karate wrote: »

That would mean they have a plan to reopen. Doesn't seem like it at the moment. Saying stuff like "Christmas 2021 isn't looking good." barely 2 months into the year is a sign that we'll locked down for the majority of it.

Please link me where anybody has said that, because nobody has said that.

Mr. Karate

hynesie08 wrote: »

Please link me where anybody has said that, because nobody has said that.

Leo said it recently in an interview.

hynesie08

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Leo said it recently in an interview.

No, he didn't.

Loafing Oaf

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why aren't we being advised to boost our immune systems naturally...which would allow us to open up safely

So the virus could have been eliminated months ago if we all dosed up on the Vitmain D? I say ditch that Holohan chancer and make Silentcorner CMO.

average_runner

Mr. Karate wrote: »

Leo said it recently in an interview.

Leo also said we be open for holidaying in Ireland in the summer and fully open by Sept in an interview

JRant

woodchuck wrote: »

Surely they have to be working on a plan in the background though. I'm just surprised we've heard absolutely nothing about one yet.

There are so many sectors that need to know when they'll allowed to reopen, even if it's only a best case scenario.

Even a very basic plan based off vaccinated numbers would be a start. As we get more and more people vaccinated it would be a nonsense to use case numbers.

average_runner

Silentcorner wrote: »

We all went into to lockdown last March, no one could have predicted we'd have vaccines so fast for a virus previously unknown, we are in for an interesting few years as the scale of the damage we are doing starts to be realised, to be going into year 2 of this without having learned a thing is beyond odd!!!


Why don't we have cheap, accurate rapid tests...which would allow us to open up safely
Why don't we have recommended therapeutics...which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we talking about the seasonality factor....which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we being advised to boost our immune systems naturally...which would allow us to open up safely

We don't have a media that is presenting alternatives in a meaningful manner.

All our hopes are on vaccines....to save us from the inhumane lockdown strategies.

Our hospitals have probably had their quietest year in living memory, especially outside of the two surges in March/April and Dec/Jan.

All the smartest people in the world working on this and they never thought about the above??


You should get a nobel prize

Russman

woodchuck wrote: »

Surely they have to be working on a plan in the background though. I'm just surprised we've heard absolutely nothing about one yet.

There are so many sectors that need to know when they'll allowed to reopen, even if it's only a best case scenario.

I agree there absolutely should be a plan, but the problem is that the best case scenario will morph into "....we were told we'd be opening and have stock ordered and now they say we can't, its a disgrace is what it is Joe....." if things were to go pear shaped for whatever reason.

average_runner

JRant wrote: »

Even a very basic plan based off vaccinated numbers would be a start. As we get more and more people vaccinated it would be a nonsense to use case numbers.

UK can't give that info and they have more vaccinated than us. The problem is, the South African variant.



Until we block all non essential travel in and out of the country, we won't get out of lockdown

Silentcorner

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

So the virus could have been eliminated months ago if we all dosed up on the Vitmain D? I say ditch that Holohan chancer and make Silentcorner CMO.

What's with the attitude? if you don't like hearing alternate opinions then perhaps this place isn't for you.

We improve our hand hygiene
We wear masks
We socially distance.

We do this to help prevent spread.

But there is plenty we can do to strengthen our immune systems but we haven't seen any ad campaign or repeated advice to that effect!

A year in, do you not find that odd?

average_runner

Silentcorner wrote: »

What's with the attitude? if you don't like hearing alternate opinions then perhaps this place isn't for you.

We improve our hand hygiene
We wear masks
We socially distance.

We do this to help prevent spread.

But there is plenty we can do to strengthen our immune systems but we haven't seen any ad campaign or repeated advice to that effect!

A year in, do you not find that odd?

Can you provide any evidence on what we can do that would have an effect on the virus?


I know of 4 people who died, all under 45, all very healthy and fit. Lead a clean lifestyle.


South Africa has plenty of Vitamin D and alot of deaths related to Covid

Silentcorner

average_runner wrote: »

Can you provide any evidence on what we can do that would have an effect on the virus?


I know of 4 people who died, all under 45, all very healthy and fit. Lead a clean lifestyle.


South Africa has plenty of Vitamin D and alot of deaths related to Covid

You want me to provide you with evidence on what we can do that would have an effect on the virus....

Well, as this is a new virus, there isn't.
There isn't any evidence that masks work either but we wear them
There isn't any evidence that socially distancing works but we do that.

We do it because it makes sense, even if there isn't irrefutable evidence to the contrary...why wouldn't you!

It is our through our collective immune system that this virus transmits, so logically, if we do what we can to build up that collective immune system then we collectively limit the amount of damage the virus can do at individual level.

Vit D is a well known course of protection against viruses just like this one, so why wouldn't you advice citizens to boost their intake?

Silentcorner

average_runner wrote: »

All the smartest people in the world working on this and they never thought about the above??


You should get a nobel prize

Maybe you have the answers then, why do we have a number of vaccines developed in record time, thankfully, but we haven't managed to produce a cheap, rapid testing kit?

You tell me!

walus

Silentcorner wrote: »

We all went into to lockdown last March, no one could have predicted we'd have vaccines so fast for a virus previously unknown, we are in for an interesting few years as the scale of the damage we are doing starts to be realised, to be going into year 2 of this without having learned a thing is beyond odd!!!


Why don't we have cheap, accurate rapid tests...which would allow us to open up safely
Why don't we have recommended therapeutics...which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we talking about the seasonality factor....which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we being advised to boost our immune systems naturally...which would allow us to open up safely

We don't have a media that is presenting alternatives in a meaningful manner.

All our hopes are on vaccines....to save us from the inhumane lockdown strategies.

Our hospitals have probably had their quietest year in living memory, especially outside of the two surges in March/April and Dec/Jan.

I agree with most the most of what you say with an exception of what is highlighted. The mRNA was a technology that was long coming and in which companies invested billions of dollars in the last decade at least. It needed an application that would give it a final push into the commercial space. The actual Cv-19 vaccine must have been in the pipeline long before we heard on RTE about it being developed, and most like before we went into the spring lockdown. Whomever the governments subcontracted critical thinking, decision making and open mindsets to, knew damn well what was coming down the line.

The only purpose of lockdown is 'flatten the curve' and that means that the total surface beneath the curve that represents immunity of the population spreads vastly in time. There is no point of subsequent lockdowns if there is no vaccine in sight.

Edit: mRNA is a critical technology for the future of preventative healthcare and profits associated with operating in that space.

"Many scientists, including Nobel Prize winner Sharp, used to think mRNA therapy would be too technically difficult to make a reality. “They’ve totally convinced me it is possible to do,” he says of Moderna. Now it’s a matter of proving it works in humans and without side effects or complications that would encumber its practicality, Sharp adds. “That’s the litmus test.” https://cen.acs.org/business/start-ups/mRNA-disrupt-drug-industry/96/i35

Boggles

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why don't we have cheap, accurate rapid tests...which would allow us to open up safely

You mean like Donald used in the Whitehouse?

How many super spreader events did he host there and on tour again?

I actually agree with you though S, I think an accurate at home testing kit, doesn't even have to be that cheap would be a great benefit.

I think I read the Germans are about to approve one.

Graham

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why don't we have cheap, accurate rapid tests...which would allow us to open up safely

fast, good, or cheap. Pick two

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why don't we have recommended therapeutics...which would allow us to open up safely

Such as? Which therapeutics prevent the spread of a virus?

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why aren't we talking about the seasonality factor....which would allow us to open up safely

Seasonality is reflected in the case numbers, the case numbers influence the restrictions.

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why aren't we being advised to boost our immune systems naturally...which would allow us to open up safely

I'd assume because eating a probiotic yoghurt and a salad aren't going to impact the spread of a virus.

Silentcorner

Silentcorner wrote: »

We all went into to lockdown last March, no one could have predicted we'd have vaccines so fast for a virus previously unknown, we are in for an interesting few years as the scale of the damage we are doing starts to be realised, to be going into year 2 of this without having learned a thing is beyond odd!!!


Why don't we have cheap, accurate rapid tests...which would allow us to open up safely
Why don't we have recommended therapeutics...which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we talking about the seasonality factor....which would allow us to open up safely
Why aren't we being advised to boost our immune systems naturally...which would allow us to open up safely

We don't have a media that is presenting alternatives in a meaningful manner.

All our hopes are on vaccines....to save us from the inhumane lockdown strategies.

Our hospitals have probably had their quietest year in living memory, especially outside of the two surges in March/April and Dec/Jan.

1. Was supposed to be the panacea for Slovakia in October. 4,500 deaths later it hasn't worked out that well. Have you and example of a country that has used these tests to successfully control the virus?
2. We have excellent ICU survival rates. Trouble is people either recover on their own or get really ill. There is no real middle ground and no proven therapeutics
3. There is no data to show that it is as yet seasonal
4. The advice is always to keep fit and have a good diet. A pandemic doesn't change that.

Trouble is you seem to believe there are easy answers that we are just missing. There aren't. The closest there is are vaccines

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

"NPHET is akin to a driver doing 50km/h on a motorway", Pat justifiably criticising the excessive caution. Kenny one of the few crusaders in the media who take no guff.

To be fair Pat was fond of the hysteria for the past 10 month’s himself.

Luke O’Neill was often a voice of reason on a Thursday morning with him.

Although fair due to Pat for realising the approach is absolutely not sustainable for the time periods being discussed.

average_runner

average_runner wrote: »

South Africa has plenty of Vitamin D and alot of deaths related to Covid

Vitamin D deficiency in African countries is definitely a thing, and tends to be worse in more developed nations with a higher prevalence of indoor work and a higher level of education/awareness about skin cancers and so on.

In any case it's not really a comparable population. About 10% of South Africans are HIV+ and many people have TB-scarred lungs.

Even if Vitamin D deficiency were not prevalent in South Africa it wouldn't change the fact that it is in Ireland, and that the amount of evidence for a direct link between Vitamin D deficiency and severe Covid-19 has only grown since it was first observed early in 2020.

I can understand thinking lockdowns are effective and the best measure available on balance (even if I disagree). But I cannot fathom wanting to play down the effect of an incredibly cheap, incredibly safe, evidently effective hormone, nor wanting to excuse the government's failure to inform people about it. It has almost certainly cost lives.

walus

ArthurDayne wrote: »

I agree that the conspiracy theories are not realistic or helpful, but I do think people should reflect on the fact that it does not take conspiracy for the government to act incompetently. Sometimes, career self-preservation drives politicians and state officials towards appeasing short-term concerns in order to avoid being targeted by the media and / or electorate. Right now, the handling of Covid (and more particularly, the management of case numbers) is more or less the one and only metric by which the government’s success is being measured. Therefore, that is the metric on which the government will focus almost single-mindedly.

So no, it’s not necessarily a conspiracy hatched in a dark room by hooded figures chanting in Latin, but it may not be entirely unreasonable to concur that the narrative around Covid is exerting a certain influence on the human nature of those in power — driving them towards a more career-selfish short term goal in the hope that one of either ‘Cross-Bridge-When-Get-There’ or ‘Kick-Can-Down-Road-So-Somebody-Else’s-Problem’ will apply.

Sometimes, rather than just outright dismissing things as conspiracy theories, it’s good to explore whether there may be a nucleus of reasonability to certain things that a person is saying, even if that nucleus is surrounded by stuff which seems totally unreasonable.

I agree. The government have and will continue to act incompetently because they don't understand what they are doing, as it was not themselves who came up with the strategy of lockdowns. If it was them they would have created a plan that would have resided within their own circle of competence. This one was not and so they formed nphet, and the rest is history.

This whole thing has been biased around loss aversion and optimized so that both nphet members and politicians cannot be proven wrong, and the only price that they need to pay in case of a misjudgment is to call Brussels and ask for more freshly printed billions. They linked their own KPI with number of deaths and ignored almost everything else, forgetting that not only the government can not provide safety and security to all its citizens, but also should take cost implication in a very broad sense of the social contract that we have all signed up to.

Silentcorner

Graham wrote: »

fast, good, or cheap. Pick two



Such as? Which therapeutics prevent the spread of a virus?



Seasonality is reflected in the case numbers, the case numbers influence the restrictions.



I'd assume because eating a probiotic yoghurt and a salad aren't going to impact the spread of a virus.

Why pick two....why is that important, are you just being obtuse, how much would you pay for a test per day to allow you live a normal existence?

I don't believe I said therapeutics prevent spread....they would limit the damage to the immune system however...which is what a therapeutic is.

If seasonality is a factor then surely we should be dropping the restrictions in the next 3/4 weeks...the likelyhood of another surge is miniscule so we know our health system can cope, based on what happened last year.

Whatsisname

average_runner wrote: »

Can you provide any evidence on what we can do that would have an effect on the virus?


I know of 4 people who died, all under 45, all very healthy and fit. Lead a clean lifestyle.


South Africa has plenty of Vitamin D and alot of deaths related to Covid

Theres been about 26 deaths under 45 in Ireland and you know 4 of them? thats statistically very surprising.

copeyhagen

https://fortune.com/2021/02/02/covid-rapid-at-home-test-price-where-can-i-get-one-ellume-accuracy/

proposed to be a 30$ test, 15 minutes, 90-96% accurate.

Graham

Silentcorner wrote: »

Why pick two....why is that important, are you just being obtuse, how much would you pay for a test per day to allow you live a normal existence?

You were the one that asked for "cheap, accurate rapid". Did you find/invent such a test?

Silentcorner wrote: »

I don't believe I said therapeutics prevent spread....they would limit the damage to the immune system however...which is what a therapeutic is.

So do nothing at all to prevent the spread and possible marginal effect on those infected.

Silentcorner wrote: »

If seasonality is a factor then surely we should be dropping the restrictions in the next 3/4 weeks...the likelyhood of another surge is miniscule so we know our health system can cope, based on what happened last year.

If the cases numbers support it, yes. Otherwise no.

Loafing Oaf

Silentcorner wrote: »

What's with the attitude? if you don't like hearing alternate opinions then perhaps this place isn't for you.

We improve our hand hygiene
We wear masks
We socially distance.

We do this to help prevent spread.

But there is plenty we can do to strengthen our immune systems but we haven't seen any ad campaign or repeated advice to that effect!

A year in, do you not find that odd?

You're not just saying boosting our immune systems would help prevent spread, you're saying it would, by itself, "allow us to open up safely", which means effectively suppressing the virus.

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

1. Was supposed to be the panacea for Slovakia in October. 4,500 deaths later it hasn't worked out that well. Have you and example of a country that has used these tests to successfully control the virus?
2. We have excellent ICU survival rates. Trouble is people either recover on their own or get really ill. There is no real middle ground and no proven therapeutics
3. There is no data to show that it is as yet seasonal
4. The advice is always to keep fit and have a good diet. A pandemic doesn't change that.

Trouble is you seem to believe there are easy answers that we are just missing. There aren't. The closest there is are vaccines

Of course I don't have an example of a country that has used rapid accurate tests, that is my point, how come one hasn't made it to market, there would be an answer I am unaware of I am merely asking the question.

Again, it's hard to imagine, that a year into this, that some kind of therapeutic remedy hasn't been endorsed, again, there could be a legit reason for this, that I am unaware of.

Our own data has recorded 2 surges and very little in between, certainly nothing that would pose a problem to our health service....you do not need data to know that at certain times of the year, we are more susceptible to viruses, and this is manifesting itself in our data, we didn't get a surge last summer, we got one in the depths of winter.

The only element that I can see is the new variants/mutations, but this thing is constantly mutating, and will continue to do so, we can't lock ourselves in our homes forever.

Trouble is, nobody is asking the obvious questions at least not in media it seems.