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Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭ BlitzKrieg


    Actually on the topic of weapons to Ukraine from the UK, has there been any solid figures for all the dick waving of military support by the different countries to Ukraine? I remember a lot of articles of the UK showing Ukraine military a bunch of stormer AA and other equipment very early in the war, but most media covering the actual fighting has mostly been highlighting the use of Turkish Drones, American stingers and Javelins (of course those could be British bought american javelins).

    I'm trying not to go full conspiracy, but Johnson's government is well known for getting the photo op of them achieving before they actually do it. For example the UK Australia Trade deal was announced as a done deal in June to save Boris from the disaster that was the G7 summit at the time, but the actual deal didnt happen til December.


    And like I said a lot of news stories tend to be framed in terms of what the UK 'will' send to Ukraine X or Y, or will give Poland challenger tanks so they can give Ukraine their T 72 tanks.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,338 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    I haven't any sources. I do recall reading credible reports about them sending anti-tank weaponry and providing training before the war broke out. I'd be inclined to believe them. The war is a godsend for arms manufacturers. The obvious aside, they're getting high quality data of how their weapons perform in an actual war. That's going to be worth a fortune.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,831 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    I think the Russians have discovered that, when in contact with a Javelin missile, their tanks are well - no tanks. Helicopters fare not much better when flying against manpad ground to air missiles like the Stinger, and as for their flag ship, .....



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭ joeysoap


    It wouldn't matter how many ukrainens we shelter or how hard the Brits make it- ukraine thinks more of the Uk- thanks to British weapons - than us



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,471 ✭✭✭✭ BonnieSituation




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,825 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    If the minds in London continue down this path, the US won't support an EU border there either. I think that is what the UK is banking on, and you'd be forgiven for thinking Pelosi's and similar messages were aimed at all involved.

    A pessimistic early morning take but I foresee a very bad trade war, the UK largely cut off from mainland EU, heavy penalties for smuggling, and spot checks on the ferries between Ireland and the mainland. The UK will argue that these checks are sufficient and the EU will have to maintain the trade war. This would take years to transpire.

    The optimistic take at the end of this would be that Ireland hurt itself to protect the GFA, while the unionists supported all they could to wreck it, and a reunification vote fixes everything. The pressure on GB would be enormous with everyone there wondering how NI could possibly be worth it.

    Let's see how I feel in half an hour when this coffee kicks in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,825 ✭✭✭✭ Ads by Google


    Hmm yeah I feel like that was way too pessimistic.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,338 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    I can't see the UK actually doing anything. The conspiracy theorist in me thinks that the only real thing they want to achieve is stunting growth in Northern Ireland. All they're doing is playing the same silly game they've played since Johnson took office.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,698 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42


    The big whole in their entire argument is that they are arguing that the new border is creating these massive problems, which in the case of NI will lead to instability. But of course that raises the very question of what the raising of barriers across the entire economy will do? If it is so bad going from GB to NI, aren't the same problems (paperwork, form filling etc) going to be replicated agains the whole of the UK?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    I think we can agree that whatever else is going on over there, rigourous questions being asked by the media is not one of them. There's a shocking lack of incisive dot-joining going on; maybe it's the more anti Brexit outlets are too chastened to circle events back to the inherent folly of Brexit, worries they'll lose the argument in the eyes of some.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,371 ✭✭✭ yagan


    The screws can be turned by compliance, for example if a NI company decides to act as a conduit for passing GB goods into the EU without the proper certs then they risk permanent access if they're caught by spot customs checks along the border. Retailers in the republic who try to sell on this contraband risk penalties too.

    So overall it's probably just going to be low scale smuggling for car boot sales in the republic. Customs checks don't just happen at borders.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,698 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42


    The problem is the UK have a history of failure of carry out proper customs checks (china goods I think) and they are currently into implementing any checks into the UK.

    So why should the EU trust that the products going into NI form GB are staying there? The UK have refused the EU having an office in NI, refused access to real time information. They have stated from the very outset that they want to get rid of standards and red tape.

    And now they are, for the second time, threatening to break international law to suit themselves. But we are supposed to trust them?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,371 ✭✭✭ yagan


    From what I've seen in England it seems to mostly imports from the Asian subcontinent. It's really in your face when you see all the knock offs in the garment district near Strangeways in Manchester. There's zero attempt to hide it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,117 ✭✭✭✭ breezy1985



    Heard an interview yesterday with Simon Kuper the author of a new book "Chums" about the elite close knit private school caste that rule the UK.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,301 ✭✭✭ peter kern


    the thing is apart from kermit the frog most people understand the game the torries play, why do we have always to comment on it over and over. it makes the thread much more tabloid like right now. ie playing with emotions rather than focusing on facts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,569 ✭✭✭ amacca


    Because the facts don't seem to matter as much as they should when the game is let develop the way it has......(the more people are aware of how rigged it is perhaps something might change. What they have done is a direct consequence of the system that has been let fester.....That needs to be tackled before things improve and people need to be aware of a problem before steps can be taken to solve it long term)



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 27,077 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    Cos I think once it remains uncommented upon, it becomes normal and accepted. While emotions are exactly what caused Brexit in the first place, a maelstrom of bad facts and bad information; it's like the Trump thread, it's difficult to keep stoic and objective in the face of something this outwardly surreal and insane. Sure, this Irish discussion forum isn't going to sway minds across 'de water but we should stil call out the Tories for all the bullshít they sow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,005 ✭✭✭✭ Podge_irl


    There is absolutely nothing strategic about anything this government does. It is the very definition of flying by the seat of your pants and lumbering from one crisis to another inevitable one after your short term obfuscations and "solutions" did nothing to address the underlying issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,476 ✭✭✭ swampgas


    If there is strategy, it's probably with the people pulling the Tory party strings with big donations. There are those for whom the EU is a threat, because it's not as corruptible as the UK or the US. Murdoch hates the EU, so do a lot of US billionaires who see the EU's ability to punish things like anti-competitive behaviour with huge fines as a threat to their god given right to screw their customers for an extra dollar. China and Russia (and the US, to be fair) see the EU as a competitor for global influence. Russia in particular has been trying to poison EU politics with its IRA trolls and disinformation for years, and Brexit has played into that.

    The owners of the big right wing UK papers are also (I assume) billionaires who hate the idea of their off-shore money coming under scrutiny.

    The strategy, then is to damage the EU in any way possible, for the benefit of an elite group of people who aren't exactly worried about where their next meal is coming from. The likes of the Tories, Johnson, Orban, the DUP and Brexiters in general are just useful idiots for the money men's long term goal of diminishing the EU's influence, or destroying it completely.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,338 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    I don't think that this is really relevant any more. The UK left the EU and the EU seems to be better off politically for it.

    The big papers are declining. Fewer and fewer people are buying them and opting for social media as a source for news and information. As a result, they've spent big on their websites but this is likely to be too little too late.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,476 ✭✭✭ swampgas


    Possibly less relevant than during the Brexit campaign, but not completely. The Newspapers (even if in decline) get to set the agenda in a way that far outweighs their circulation. The radio and TV stations often have a morning news item along the lines of "what it says in the papers" - amplifying whatever editorial agenda the big papers are pushing.

    I agree the EU is better off without the toxic UK, but there well be nervousness that any closer alignment with the EU in the future (perhaps under a Labour goverment) may come with regulatory strings attached. If I were an oligarch with funds in the UK or UK tax havens, I would be keeping up the pressure to antagonise UK-EU relations.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,338 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    Papers are only really relevant for the influence they carry in Westminster. I'd argue TV stations are going the same way. Radio probably not so much due to its versatility.

    I don't think the EU is better off without the UK. What I meant was that Brexit means the UK can't scupper anything the EU would like to do but I would have preferred the UK to remain as a counterweight to France and Germany.

    I fail to see what an oligarch gains from lobbying for UK-EU tension. The Tories are already doing that themselves anyway.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,185 ✭✭✭✭ road_high


    So another week another business as usual with the protocol. I’m sure they’ll rip it up any day now….



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,698 ✭✭✭✭ Leroy42


    Or is it that they really do what a No deal Brexit as this deal seems to be the worst of all worlds (from a Brexiteer POV). They will have all the paperwork, NIP, etc but still remain pretty much tied to the EU, with the ECJ still having a say. The mindset is probably that this leaves the door open for future realignment with the EU.

    They landed on a winning strategy before the last election, sell the deal as done to win, with ever having any intention of applying the deal. How many extensions and pushbacks of implementation have they done at this stage?

    So maybe this is all just a way to try to provoke the EU into binning the deal, this getting Johnson and this Government out of their obligations and being able to claim that they were always willing to work but the spiteful EU needed to punish the UK and tore up the deal.

    There is little doubt that the likes of JRM, Frost and Johnson think a No Deal is perfectly acceptable.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 30,338 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    I think it's as tedious and banal as more Tory theatre and nothing more. They used the culture war to get elected and they now need a new issue. Climate change won't work as the UK isn't that polarised. Any of the other guff isn't going to fly. They can't persuade people to vote Tory so there's this and nothing else.

    Show me a god that does not demand mortal suffering. Show me a god that celebrates diversity, a celebration that embraces even non-believers, and is not threatened by them. Show me a god that understands the meaning of peace. In life, not in death.

    Steven Erikson



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