Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

Heimdallr

Anyone know if there are any brokers here that facilitate the OTC grey market? Interactive brokers are great for pinks but don't allow these unless you have something like $5 million in your account!

Atlas_IRL

DeanAustin wrote: »

What are people's thoughts on TSLA. It's down at $560 from a high of ~$880. Is now the time to buy or will it dip further?

Watch this and you will get a better answer of how garbage some of the competition is. IT might dip more no-one really knows how this market is, if you get a good bit lower - load the boat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV0t9H4BUVQ&feature=youtu.be

Jose Maria

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

Watch this and you will get a better answer of how garbage some of the competition is. IT might dip more no-one really knows how this market is, if you get a good bit lower - load the boat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV0t9H4BUVQ&feature=youtu.be

The Audi Etron GT looks the business, it will be interesting to see China sales of this V the Tesla model S, car companies catch up with each other pretty fast

circadian

jams100 wrote: »

Why I'm so bullish on Nvidia:

- There is such a demand for their products that there are still shortages even after them increasing supply
- Sales were up 61% year over year (2019-2020)
- The acquisition of ARM for $40 billion (ARM develops low-power chips for mobile devices - and it supplies technology to most of Nvidia's competitors, now I'd be a little surprised if this actually went through, but Nvidia said that they are making "good progress" towards acquiring ARM in their recent earnings call, was expected to take 18 months, time shall tell. This would be the core reason for the high stock price of Nvidia, Intel have shown no sign of moving to RISC architecture despite the fact that Linux, Microsoft and Apple are all supporting desktop environments (and in the cloud) running on RISC. AMD aquired Xilinx so I suspect a similar RISC play from them in some shape.
- Company posted an impressive $5 billion in sales in Q4 of 2020 this is certainly impressive, shortages considered
- They are so dominant in the GPU market right now that when they released their RTX 3060 GPUs they were almost immediately sold out. These GPUs were also being used for Crypto mining and Nvidia had to find a way of reducing their power for cryptos just to keep up with the gaming demand side.There's a chip shortage at the minute so most silicon is selling out. Their GPUs are ahead in some aspects, but that gap is narrowing and they also fell out with TSMC over pricing of 7nm nodes and had to use Samsung for an 8nm node with higher wastage
- This month they are releasing a specific line of Crypto GPUs, they are expected to contribute 50 million in sales in Q1. This will always be small fry for Nvidia as their money is to be made in the GPU gaming market. (The crypto market has a ceiling)Depending on currency, with Ethereum in particular, AMD seems to be much better at mining. I worry that this move will cause more supply issues with the silicon shortage, rather than alleviate it. Remains to be seen
- They have good momentum in the automotive market with their electric vehicle OEMs, including NIO, SAIC, Xpeng and Li Auto, these are all using the Nvidia drive platform to power their next generation vehicles I didn't know this, very interesting
- Partnered with Mercedes to create a 56" wide screen which is powered by Nvidia cockpit technology and is now in 1.8 million cars (Recurring software revenues).
- Data centres contributed $1.9 billion in Q4 2020 and 6.7 billion, year on year (Their A100, which is used for data centers is expected to continue to grow due to its outstanding performance…it performs AI computations with 1/20th of the power consumption of CPUs and is 20x faster than their previous generation)this is a huge market, and again, Intel may fall behind here. AMD will continue to compete with Nvidia in this environment for sure.
- Their GForce gaming platform now has 6 million users and is supported in 65 countries which is expected to continue to grow
- Acquired mellanox technologies in April 2020

- Q1 2021 revenues expected to be $5.3 billion
- Their net income in 2020 was $4.3 billion, so they are already making significant profits and are growing rapidly
- Shares are down 24% from their high in 2020
- They are one of the leaders in AI in my opinion and this is and will continue to be a massive area of growth for many years to come, hence the importance of the ARM acquisition
- 0.13% dividend
- Currently trading at 72 p/e. Now, at first sight that seems very high but with revenues accelerating and their ability to execute their strategies to date I don't think that is at all outlandish. I expect that in 3 years we'll look back and say, that was good value back then.

I know they are going to have a bit of competition from AMD in the future but they are now the "go to" for gaming so I'm not too concerned about that right now...I'm averaging down and long on Nvidia, interested to hear other peoples thoughts

(This was all typed on a laptop using an Nvidia GEFORCE GTX, so I can firsthand say their product is top of the class!)

I agree with a lot of what you're saying but I still think, at the minute, they are overpriced. As much as I believe AMD are underpriced. If the Nvidia ARM merger completes and pays off then I would see their share price increasing by large amounts. I'd like to see some new GPU architecture coming online as I feel the 3000 series of cards was a decent leap, but it felt more like a brute force leap rather than a new approach. Granted their Raytracing has come on leaps and bounds, and the pricing is a lot better than the previous generation.

I'd wait to see if there's a price drop on Nvidia, we're another while away yet for the next GPU cycle, and further again from any type of ARM offering from them.

Chuckie_Egg

Nvidia's shares are not cheap and significantly overvalued, the Arm deal looks unlikely.
AMD missed the advantage they had over Intel due to the fact that they cannot get their chips made by Tsmc, it must have been a right gut punch for them to see last generation i5s and i7s in all those new laptops
Both Intel and ASML looks undervalued.
Intel dominates the cloud computing space, there new line-up of server CPU GPUs have already gotten all the big software houses like Tencent and Microsoft signed up and using them.

bob mcbob

DeanAustin wrote: »

What are people's thoughts on TSLA. It's down at $560 from a high of ~$880. Is now the time to buy or will it dip further?

The last time the price was at this level was at the end of November 2020. Go back to the beginning of November 2020 and the price was $400 so there is still is a lot of potential for further falls.

This report about Tesla would worry me, in a report on car build quality in the US they were last (by a distance).

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1128625_tesla-ranks-last-in-initial-quality-build-issues

Valhallapt

Cathie Woods on TESLA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdXKLks459Q She builds a very compelling case for its future

Bobeagleburger

I like what Tesla are doing for the car industry and love their cars, but their numbers don't stack up. Incredibly over priced imo.

That had a recent 5:1 split too so its been a hell of a stock market ride. It they fell to $100, I'd still be hesitant.

PokeHerKing

Judith Great Balance wrote: »

GME up nearly 14% premarket. This is break even territory. Should I sell and get my money back or hold? :D Only have 1.5 shares so not much money. It's odd how the mind works. When it was at 40 I would have sold at break even no questions asked. Now I'm inclined to be greedy and hang in to try and get some profits :pac:

I've 5 at $80 avg and im thinking of holding till something near 400. Theres definitely more to run on it, it was artificially stopped on its original run with RH etc stopping buying. Plus there's a ton of bagholders at 350+ who definitely won't be selling till then.

Most of yesterday's volume was actually shorting which blows my mind.

cronos

Judith Great Balance wrote: »

GME up nearly 14% premarket. This is break even territory. Should I sell and get my money back or hold? :D Only have 1.5 shares so not much money. It's odd how the mind works. When it was at 40 I would have sold at break even no questions asked. Now I'm inclined to be greedy and hang in to try and get some profits :pac:

Having gone through the CCIV debacle I say sell. Does not mean I'll be right though. Depends how much the money means to you.

cc87

Is FROG at it's current price a buy or is it worth waiting until after the final lock-up expires on the 14th?

Treppen

Roblox IPO tomorrow... Anyone interested?

Edit DPO .... no proposed kick off price... this could go nuts.

pioneerpro

jams100 wrote: »

- There is such a demand for their products that there are still shortages even after them increasing supply

See: All GPUs. A lot to do with semiconductor availability, crypto resurgence, and fabless/fab'd production lines. It's pretty damn hard to get any sort of GPU at the moment, check out the second hand market.

- They are so dominant in the GPU market right...

Basically down to driver support and availability. AMD supply ALL the CPU/GPUs for the gaming console market for the last 2 generations. NVIDIA have also taken a significant punt on Raytracing with the RTX line which is heavily dependent on gaming industry buy-in and support.

Even looking at mass-scale mining rigs, the miners picked the AMD cards due to the price/performance/power ratios vs. NVIDIA.

- This month they are releasing a specific line of Crypto GPUs, they are expected to contribute 50 million in sales in Q1. This will always be small fry for Nvidia as their money is to be made in the GPU gaming market. (The crypto market has a ceiling)

Not really relevant. More to do with them firmware-fencing their gaming lines off due to supply issues, and presumably charging more. ASIC miners are probably the better bet here for power/price; I'm not entirely sure of the adoption of their market looking at the bigger miners - hell even BitFury's recent investor presentation spent most of its slides talking about their in-house ASIC chips. Also lol at the crypto market 'hitting a ceiling'. It's currently using more power than the entire country of Argentina.

They have good momentum in the automotive market with their electric vehicle OEMs, including NIO, SAIC, Xpeng and Li Auto, these are all using the Nvidia drive platform to power their next generation vehicles

They've a good machine vision package, but I wouldn't be bullish on the tier of companies you've mentioned there.

- Data centres contributed $1.9 billion in Q4 2020 and 6.7 billion, year on year (Their A100, which is used for data centers is expected to continue to grow due to its outstanding performance…it performs AI computations with 1/20th of the power consumption of CPUs and is 20x faster than their previous generation)

They've a dedicated card for a specific workload. ARK is very bullish on TPU/GPU, but the trend is towards cloud-native containers abstracted away from such pass-through mechanisms. You're talking a significantly smaller chunk of the market than say... data warehousing or CRUD stuff. This is where the likes of Intels new FPGA boards which focusing on I/O throughput come into play. CUDA or similar 'per core' performance for crunching AI workloads are of less use to the server market than multi-core processors with good single-core performance and hyperthreading, or even FPGAs on the motherboard for accelerating I/O throughput in a lot of cases.

AMD currently have a *tiny* percentage of the server market, and are backlogged by Samsung and others for capacity at TSMC, but conversely they probably have the best-in-class server chip in so far as their new Zen architecture iteration and the best nm manufacturing processes this generation.

- Their GForce gaming platform now has 6 million users and is supported in 65 countries which is expected to continue to grow

Until something like Parsec or any number of server-side low-latency streaming technologies come and take that share off them, particularly with 1ms latency with 5G becoming commonplace rapidly. Streaming gaming platforms aren't a great argument for a hardware company, and I could see this being wrapped up a la Google Stadia in the next 5 years.

They are one of the leaders in AI in my opinion and this is and will continue to be a massive area of growth for many years to come, hence the importance of the ARM acquisition

Yes and no. The ARM acquisition would be a good one, but its more of an embedded device play. You use those RISC processors when power consumption is an issue, they're not necessarily 'best in class' otherwise. Most likely use is in AR Goggles, which Apple will be launching their iteration of this year using the M1 Chip, and you're already seeing numerous vendors using with the Snapdragon SoCs.

I know they are going to have a bit of competition from AMD in the future but they are now the "go to" for gaming so I'm not too concerned about that right now...

As mentioned before, it comes down to driver support - but with Vulkan and the fact they ship binary blobs rather than opensource drivers for e.g. Linux usecases, there's a bit of a turning tide at a community level. I'd expect some sort of antitrust case against them soon in relation to their collusion with gamestudios towards benchmarking (going back as far as Hairworks in recent times). There's been something *very* funny going on with anti-competitive practices with OEMs for the last few years

https://www.notebookcheck.net/AnandTech-editor-reports-that-Intel-may-be-incentivizing-mini-PC-makers-to-delay-or-not-build-AMD-based-models.461262.0.html

Remember, AMD is the company Intel illegally tried to sink a number of years ago re: x86-64 architecture. 20 years later its what Sony and Microsoft use exclusively for their consoles. They're not about to get caught out again under Lisa Su. Share price aside, watch them carefully going forward. Nothing's a sure bet imo.

pioneerpro

circadian wrote: »

they are overpriced. As much as I believe AMD are underpriced.

Was going to say as much in my own commentary, but this is probably the tl;dr version Nail on head.

I'd like to see some new GPU architecture coming online as I feel the 3000 series of cards was a decent leap, but it felt more like a brute force leap rather than a new approach. Granted their Raytracing has come on leaps and bounds, and the pricing is a lot better than the previous generation.

Exactly. They've started throwing more CUDA cores at things than improving the base architecture and their cards have gotten huge and power hungry. There's a reason they pumped Raytracing so hard - they've little else innovative to offer. Now they're at the point where they're cutting prices for the first time since say.. the GTX 970 3.5gb of addressable RAM debacle.

I'd wait to see if there's a price drop on Nvidia, we're another while away yet for the next GPU cycle, and further again from any type of ARM offering from them.

This x100.

Midlife crisis man

Judith Great Balance wrote: »

GME up nearly 14% premarket. This is break even territory. Should I sell and get my money back or hold? :D Only have 1.5 shares so not much money. It's odd how the mind works. When it was at 40 I would have sold at break even no questions asked. Now I'm inclined to be greedy and hang in to try and get some profits :pac:

I'm up 300% on GME and still not selling

banie01

Judith Great Balance wrote: »

GME up 40%, in touching distance of break even territory now, going to hold :-) Hopefully continues in same form tomorrow.

My 1st GME buy was at $340 on the back of WSB hype.

I did average down after reading lots of DD and in particular after the congressional hearings.
I'm in quite a healthy place with it now but TBH.
The money I put into it was a gamble, and I think I'll let it ride a little more before I set some stop loss orders to protect some profit.

It really is an absolutely crazy ride.

Atlas_IRL

What prices are you's expecting? its a $20-30 dollar company being very very generous if Cohan starts to turn things around, anything over that is complete madness imo. Take your money and run. Gaming industry is not easy and is being dominated by digital which will only get bigger.

circadian

Chuckie_Egg wrote: »

Nvidia's shares are not cheap and significantly overvalued, the Arm deal looks unlikely.
AMD missed the advantage they had over Intel due to the fact that they cannot get their chips made by Tsmc, it must have been a right gut punch for them to see last generation i5s and i7s in all those new laptops
Both Intel and ASML looks undervalued.
Intel dominates the cloud computing space, there new line-up of server CPU GPUs have already gotten all the big software houses like Tencent and Microsoft signed up and using them.

Intel have a good market share in the cloud, this could be the last cycle they do. Unless Intel are willing to both, outsource manufacturing and move on from their x86 architecture, then they will struggle in the long term. As for manufacturing their own chips, Intel have been rehashing the same chipsets for years as a result of having issues reducing the scale. each drop in nm results in a multi billion dollar foundry build, with the price increasing exponentially as the transistor scale lowers. They're still using 14nm and 10nm processes.

I honestly believe, before the decade is out, that if Intel do not change their methods very quickly, they'll be in a tight spot and we'll almost certainly be buying RISC based CPUs from Nvidia/ARM/AMD or any other player that enters the market.

circadian

pioneerpro wrote: »

Was going to say as much in my own commentary, but this is probably the tl;dr version Nail on head.



Exactly. They've started throwing more CUDA cores at things than improving the base architecture and their cards have gotten huge and power hungry. There's a reason they pumped Raytracing so hard - they've little else innovative to offer. Now they're at the point where they're cutting prices for the first time since say.. the GTX 970 3.5gb of addressable RAM debacle.



This x100.

Another point worth noting is the next generation of AMD cards will be based on a chiplet design, rather than a typical monolithic GPU. I'd be interested to see how this affects performance, and if it's a huge leap then Nvidia might be in a spot of bother. What I do know is, and given the current silicon shortage, is that this chiplet design allows for more consistent production and less binning and wastage.

So, if the next GPU cycle rolls around and there's still issues with supply I'd hedge my bets on AMD being able to produce more stock than Nvidia (although, probably still impossible to get your hands on it).

masterK

Treppen wrote: »

Roblox IPO tomorrow... Anyone interested?

Edit DPO .... no proposed kick off price... this could go nuts.

Definitely interested. I'm not entirely sure how the pricing on a direct listing will go. I've seen figures of $45-$48 per share with 200 million shares being quoted.

banie01

Atlas_IRL wrote: »

What prices are you's expecting? its a $20-30 dollar company being very very generous if Cohan starts to turn things around, anything over that is complete madness imo. Take your money and run. Gaming industry is not easy and is being dominated by digital which will only get bigger.

The value of GME currently isn't in its assets or fundamentals.
It has little to actually do with the company.

It's based solely on the number of shorts expiring versus the number of shares available to trade.
It's very much an artificially inflated price, driven by oversold shorts that are now starting to be hit with FTDs.

Chuckie_Egg

Stocks on fire this afternoon. Bidens stimulus package giving a right boost
(for now)

banie01

banie01 wrote: »

The value of GME currently isn't in its assets or fundamentals.
It has little to actually do with the company.

It's based solely on the number of shorts expiring versus the number of shares available to trade.
It's very much an artificially inflated price, driven by oversold shorts that are now starting to be hit with FTDs.

It's insane. I'm going to try and hold on for some profits. If it hits where the value of 1 share covers what I spent on the 1.5 I have I will sell it and hold onto the .5 for profits

crushproof

Keep pumping the market upwards, it's long slog for me to get back in the green!

Chuckie_Egg

circadian wrote: »

Intel have a good market share in the cloud, this could be the last cycle they do. Unless Intel are willing to both, outsource manufacturing and move on from their x86 architecture, then they will struggle in the long term. As for manufacturing their own chips, Intel have been rehashing the same chipsets for years as a result of having issues reducing the scale. each drop in nm results in a multi billion dollar foundry build, with the price increasing exponentially as the transistor scale lowers. They're still using 14nm and 10nm processes.

I honestly believe, before the decade is out, that if Intel do not change their methods very quickly, they'll be in a tight spot and we'll almost certainly be buying RISC based CPUs from Nvidia/ARM/AMD or any other player that enters the market.

idk maybe you are right, from my own research and talking to people in the know it seems the whole 10nm thing is overdone, the reality is Intel, Tsmc, Samsung, Micron etc all use ASML extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. The issue with Intel 7nm is it has a far higher chip density than amds offering so the yields suffered. The real problem for them was the delay in next gen processors which are not due until the end of 2021 (two generations coming in together!!)

The death of x86 isn't a new phenomena, the old risc v sisc has been going on since the late 70s.
I am happy with the way Intel has focused on Cloud based server solution chips. They are miles ahead of the rest. We are currently upgrading the IT system in our offices, we are moving from onsite PCs and workstations to Cloud based solution provided by dell, all running Intel based. That's the future now, they provide IaaS to us.
The same is happening for GPU, you can have all your graphics needs from the cloud, and again Intel are leading here too with there cloud based GPU servers.

For me I'm holding Intel stock as I can see it hitting $100 within the next 18 months. I don't see the same growth from the others, they have already priced in future earnings (which I suspect they'll struggle to deliver)

Atlas_IRL

banie01 wrote: »

The value of GME currently isn't in its assets or fundamentals.
It has little to actually do with the company.

It's based solely on the number of shorts expiring versus the number of shares available to trade.
It's very much an artificially inflated price, driven by oversold shorts that are now starting to be hit with FTDs.

I know that but it's so dodgy to hold, no one knows when it's going to crash back down to a normal price, can't keep going like this.

treatyman

My biggest losers on my portfolio are Teledoc, Lemonade and Virgin Galactic, the first 2 I thought were on the safer side of my portfolio. Just goes to show it's always a risky game this.

cronos

treatyman wrote: »

My biggest losers on my portfolio are Teledoc, Lemonade and Virgin Galactic, the first 2 I thought were on the safer side of my portfolio. Just goes to show it's always a risky game this.

I think a share like Lemonade that went 4x in a few months can't be considered safe. Equally I suspect it's safe long term as it will likely recover to whatever price you paid eventually as it grows. The one value of a growth company is that unless the price was totally crazy, growth should eventually get you back. Something like GME on the other hand is a totally different ball game, very interesting to watch though.

circadian

Alright, so anyone on the GME train here's something I spotted and I've been watching the last few days. Basically last time we got the squeeze it took about 9 days from the first significant market movement to the big push. We're at day 9 again and it's looking very similar.

pioneerpro

circadian wrote: »

Alright, so anyone on the GME train here's something I spotted and I've been watching the last few days. Basically last time we got the squeeze it took about 9 days from the first significant market movement to the big push. We're at day 9 again and it's looking very similar.

The DTCC rules and the FTD are probably driving this alongside Ryan Cohen announcement this time, not sure about correlations. That said, to the moon etc..