Share Picks 2021 - Thread banned users post #1

Atlas_IRL

https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1349003706520522753/photo/1

Proterra Spac Actc Up 83% today

Timing belt

Timing belt wrote: »

US CPI is out tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The market has already priced in 2% inflation... If CPI comes in higher than this then shares likely to rise and bond prices fall.... if it comes in lower bonds prices will rise and share prices drop.

If you are expect inflation to be higher than 2% it might be worth a overnight punt on shorting bonds by buying some TBF.

If you are expecting lower inflation it might be worth a overnight punt on TLT ETF.

I think their is a divided opinion on inflation based on the movements on the US10Y today.... Started the day at with a yield of 1.14 before moving up to 1.19 and now back at 1.14...

If the CPI gives a strong signal either way we could see a some real movement in the NADAQ tomorrow.

DutchYurt

Deleted User wrote: »

TYME (sm-88 cancer drug trial company) doing well for me the last week or so. Didn't want to mention it in case... my last tip was Edesa which is only slowly recovering.

Nooo you should have said, n'ah mind Edesa it'll be back! Any other 30% hopefuls you're working on?:pac:

cal naughton

Gevo on a March today up over 20% and showing no signs of stopping. Will be a long term set and forget for me.

DulchieLaois

cal naughton wrote: »

Gevo on a March today up over 20% and showing no signs of stopping. Will be a long term set and forget for me.

Thinking the same myself

TimeToShine

jams100 wrote: »

You can't compare a punt on the likes of APSG to what an investment bank does. Look I'm probably going down a different route to the likes of yourself, there's not a chance I'd "invest or "trade" in a company that you know nothing about. I'm not saying you or other people won't make money but to suggest its a little extra risk is an understatement.

It doesn't sound like you've looked into APSG? Apollo are an alternative investment fund (i.e. vulture fund) with a Private Equity arm managing $70bn in assets, their last SPAC took Fisker public which would have netted you 120% return at the peak and 50% today with little to no downside if you got in at near the NAV, and it hovered around there for months.

I do agree that there is a bit of SPAC mania going on at the moment but to label suggestions as baseless punts without doing a bit DD can be a bit misleading.

geordi

Anyone taking a nibble on Facebook?

Has understandably taken a beating over the last week, but they almost never disappoint come earnings time (and have a feeling digital advertising rev will be through the roof judging by $SHOP and $AMZN traffic numbers for Black Friday).

Could make a nice entry point for a long term hold, though may have further to fall...

Scuid Mhór

Anyone else getting on the CCVI train? Apparently they are in merger talks with lucid to form a SPAC and then IPO. Could be like getting in early on TSLA or NIO if it pans out.

cronos

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Anyone else getting on the CCVI train? Apparently they are in merger talks with lucid to form a SPAC and then IPO. Could be like getting in early on TSLA or NIO if it pans out.

I have 9k in at 13.4 and I'll add more if there is confirmation.

Thargor

Who tipped Reconnaissance Energy? They're on a tear, knew I should have piled in, got mine @ 2.05 but small holding...

bcklschaps

Scuid Mhór wrote: »

Anyone else getting on the CCVI train? Apparently they are in merger talks with lucid to form a SPAC and then IPO. Could be like getting in early on TSLA or NIO if it pans out.

I think you mean CCIV? ie. Churchill Capital Corp IV, the SPAC thats widely rumoured to be merging with Lucid motors.

Yep, got in yesterday for a very small position, at $14.40. I realize I probably paid too much and already have buyers regret :-(

ted1

butrasgali wrote: »

Has anyone got an opinion on Li Auto..are they the next tesla? Of China

xpeng might be a better option, already selling in to Norway, with the EU next.

riddles

Any others invested in AMWL, I am sorry I didn’t cash out at 40% but that’s the game. They are doing a stock issue now - I can only assume they expect a strong set of results? Any opinions.

TimeToShine

Thargor wrote: »

Who tipped Reconnaissance Energy? They're on a tear, knew I should have piled in, got mine @ 2.05 but small holding...

That would be me in the first page of this thread, I think I may have scared people off by citing it as "high risk"...lesson learned. At least you got some!

Kilboor

Still vibing here in Providence Resources and Gamestop. Providence back to 7p and Gamestop above 20 bucks

Shedite27

Article on SeekingAlpha on who PSTH might buy (basically going through the rumours...

Coinbase
With Bitcoin having rallied strongly since the start of 2020, there's a lot of excitement around this crypto wallet and exchange platform. Intuitive interface and a credible team make this a crowd favorite. It's unlikely that Ackman will go for a crypto-related investment because the regulatory environment isn't crystal clear. Coinbase is potentially a great business, but if it's regulated into oblivion, that wouldn't exactly be a black swan.

Robinhood
Robinhood is more likely than Coinbase, but I'm still inclined to say no. The company also is potentially subject to regulatory intervention, as I learned in my conversation with Amy Lynch. It's possible if Ackman is certain enough that regulatory risks can be mitigated and it wouldn't hurt the business model. I'm also hesitant whether substantial ownership by a hedge fund would help the business its image. You get this dynamic where a hedge fund runs a gamified retail front to sell order flows to other hedge funds. I'm not sure that's a great look.

SpaceX
SpaceX seems very unlikely to me. Ackman has called Chairman Elon Musk a visionary. But he's also very "volatile." Elon Musk already has a settlement with the SEC that mandates his tweets are supervised. I have minimal insight into SpaceX's business. Potentially, the revenue and profitability exceed my expectation. I think the business still consumes a lot of cash. There's an all-around a lot of headline risk.

SpaceX doesn't lend itself well to how Ackman can assist value creation (margin improvement and/or financial market knowledge). From my observations of how Elon Musk runs companies, he does so in a fairly frugal way. At the same time, he gambles on his ability to raise capital even when in a bind.

Ackman isn't looking for a pre-combination spike. Suppose you look at the structure of this thing. He wants to ride it for years. He'll be careful who he's on board with.

JUUL Labs

Something like JUUL Labs seems like a company that fits well with Ackman's typical penchant for quality businesses. However, I'd think it's disqualified due to regulatory risk.

Bloomberg
I'd love Bloomberg, except I'm not sure if it is a great business to take public. Because if it gets scrutinized closely, this may start attracting more and more competition and attention from regulators. I'm not sure there's enough that Pershing brings to the table in terms of value creation. Bloomberg has said he wants to sell the business at some point:
“I think at my age, if selling it is possible, I would do that,” Bloomberg said. “At some point, you’re going to die anyway, so you want to do it before then.”

Stripe
A very persistent rumor is that Stripe could be a target. As far as I know, he has never denied talks, so this doesn't preclude something happening in the future. It fits the Pershing Square criteria fairly well. I could see this deal. In an interview with Hackernoon, Collison didn't appear excited to "give away" parts of the business and interested in a self-funding trajectory.

The company also did some relatively recent private market funding rounds, which wouldn't be necessary if it were about to go public. However, it does seem to be pursuing value creation through International acquisitions, and a buy and build playbook would greatly benefit from the capital that can be provided through markets.

This is a low probability combination but one of the more likely options.

Epic Gaming
An American software developer founded by Tim Sweeney in 1991. Epic Games developed the Unreal Engine. This is a game engine that powers both internally developed and third-party games. Examples are Fortnite, Unreal, Gears of War, and Infinity Blade. Video gaming is a hit-driven business but providing the engine behind gaming isn't.

Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) owns a 48.4% outstanding stake. The founder still holds the majority. This complicates matters as there could be an issue where the founder doesn't want to give up control. On the other hand, Tencent may prefer Epic Gaming to go public, so the value of its stake becomes recognizable to the market.

I'm not sure if this business is simple enough to Ackman. He likes restaurants and things of that nature. Epic Gaming is a lot of things and requires buy-in to a certain future of gaming. I'm not sure Ackman loves to roll the dice on getting that right.

Instacart
Instacart is reportedly going public through an IPO with Goldman Sachs.

Chime
Chime is essentially a bank. Its business model isn't as cyclical, but it seems highly dependent on Visa (V). Ackman does have some involvement in financials through Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA), but I think the doesn't favor the sector.

Nvidia
But Ackman could also lift divisions out of companies. Maybe Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) can't close Arm, and he can grab that thing from Softbank (OTCPK:SFTBY). Or maybe that's a project for Pershing Square II (if it ever comes).

WeWork
A deal the market likely wouldn't love is if Ackman goes for the now derided WeWork (WE). If this real estate company had waited a year and went SPAC instead of IPO, I bet it would have been a huge (short-term) success. It failed to go public through an IPO as scrutiny of its S-1 revealed too many red flags to carry its intended valuation. However, WeWork has attracted a CEO with a great reputation and track record in real estate. He has a real ability to work with a turnaround and make something out of nothing. Notably, he turned around General Growth Properties, arriving in 2011, after it emerged from bankruptcy. Guess who invested heavily in GGP in bankruptcy in 2010? Indeed, Bill Ackman and it turned into one of his biggest winners.

It may seem like an extraordinary and unsexy idea, but if Ackman takes this off of Softbank its hands, it could be an exciting deal to get involved in.

Pornhub
A name I see pop up on Twitter from time to time is Pornhub. I doubt the sellers are interested in going public. Bringing this business public brings about host of problems. I'm sure it's profitable, but it brings reputational risk for Ackman. There's also quite a bit of regulatory risk. I can't see this being worth it to Ackman even if sellers would be interested. In December 2020, Visa (NYSE:V) and Mastercard (MA) cut payments to the company. It seems highly unlikely this goes public through Pershing Square Tontine.

Subway
Subway has 41,512 locations in more than 100 countries. Over half are in the United States. It still has a lot of runway overseas. It's the largest single-brand restaurant chain in the world. Just five years ago, it was one of the fastest-growing franchises in the world. I gather not everyone is excited by the Subway prospect, but Bill Ackman has a track record of buying into restaurant franchises when they are not at peak performance. He went without Restaurant Brands (QSR) in 2012. Here's the presentation from his 08' Wendy's campaign, and he bought into Chipotle (CMG) in 2016 following the food poisoning incidents in 2015. The less glamorous the name, the better the deal likely is to be in the long term. Pershing can do a lot with a business that has fixable problems in certain segments.

Conclusion
Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (NYSE:PSTH) may come out with a name that's immediate fireworks like Stripe (STRIP). Don't be surprised if he brings a seemingly mundane name. Or a company that's in some trouble. That's how Ackman makes money. He buys quality companies that face temporary and fixable problems and sells them when they're near pristine and loved by the markets. Eight percent of his portfolio is in Lowe's (LOW), Restaurant Brands (QSR), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), and Agilent Technologies (A). If you think Agilent Technologies is some sexy tech company, think again. Make money it does...

Green&Red

pitrn wrote: »

Sold Gevo at 5 too..

roosterman71 wrote: »

Sold $GEVO at $5 for 100% gain. Onwards and upwards for both of us I hope!

Same here, 100% profit. Almost immediate sellers remorse though

pitrn

pitrn wrote: »

Sold Gevo at 5 too..

I got this... sold at $1.95.




















Bought at $2.230

Yup... feel better now?

Sold to buy back in, spiked. DROPPED to about $1.85, but as it did was wrapping presents with my wife... Couldn't interrupt that. Had over 30k shares. Most expensive presents ever

DulchieLaois

Green&Red wrote: »

Same here, 100% profit. Almost immediate sellers remorse though

Is it too late to buy in I wonder ?

riddles

Kilboor wrote: »

Still vibing here in Providence Resources and Gamestop. Providence back to 7p and Gamestop above 20 bucks

the only good thing I can say about Providence is my many times dilluted holding has been finally recouped as a tax write down. I wish you luck in it.

pitrn

Green&Red wrote: »

Same here, 100% profit. Almost immediate sellers remorse though

I know I'm regretting it as well Just scared when the bubble will gonna burst...so taking profit whenever possible

pitrn

DulchieLaois wrote: »

Is it too late to buy in I wonder ?

It's very volatile stock. The day I wanted to buy the share the price increased by 20% before I could buy, from 2- 3.75.
Got in at 3.75 sold at 5 and price increased again by 20%.

Kilboor

riddles wrote: »

the only good thing I can say about Providence is my many times dilluted holding has been finally recouped as a tax write down. I wish you luck in it.

In at 4.5 bep since July I think it was. Have never been in a loss of more than a week with it. Big year. Bond market news soon.

pitrn

Fubo is doing really well for me.Just last week got in at 23 and its 36 already...

Timmaay

Probably a fairly subjective question, but best app/website for a nice watchlist, with easy access to live candlestick charts and thing's like sma, live prices including all premarket and post market, and ideally basic information on the company itself. I currently have 3 separate sources, I use stocktwits for all share prices pre and post market, IG for its charts, and t212 for basic company details/fundamentals. Anything that would combine all 3?

Shedite27

Timmaay wrote: »

Probably a fairly subjective question, but best app/website for a nice watchlist, with easy access to live candlestick charts and thing's like sma, live prices including all premarket and post market, and ideally basic information on the company itself. I currently have 3 separate sources, I use stocktwits for all share prices pre and post market, IG for its charts, and t212 for basic company details/fundamentals. Anything that would combine all 3?

Yahoo Finance has all that doesn't it.

I use that for my Portfolio and watchlist

roosterman71

Shedite27 wrote: »

Yahoo Finance has all that doesn't it.

I use that for my Portfolio and watchlist

When you sell a portion of a stock, how do you manage that in Yahoo Finance? I just see in the portfolio a way to add to your holding but not sales

Shedite27

roosterman71 wrote: »

When you sell a portion of a stock, how do you manage that in Yahoo Finance? I just see in the portfolio a way to add to your holding but not sales

When I sell I just remove the shares from the "Holdings" tab

bcklschaps

Am I missing something here or are Fiat Chrysler Auto giving anybody who buys their shares (in the next 2 days) a guaranteed 12% back in a special dividend?

FCA trading at about €14.50 in Milan today.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-m-a-psa-dividend-idUSKBN29I198

The SP is up about 20% in last month so... I suppose its not inconceivable that it couldn't fall 12% on any given day.... But likewise.... If they announce an EV programme... Boom!! SP goes to the moon.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Intel/VMWare CEOs on the move, VMware down, Intel up