FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

gerrybhoy

hatrickpatrick

TO THE MOON

sryanbruen

Absolute stonker of a GFS 06z with perfect Omega blocking around Greenland combined with low pressure around the Azores (NAO going through the floor). Not the first run to suggest such an amazing blocked hemispheric profile.

Gathering momentum as they say?

Literally as perfect as can be for a direct feed from the northeast. Remain calm with such a perfect scenario like this, likelihood for such to occur is still very low.

mcburns07

The inevitable watering down / disappearance of this is going to be crushing :pac:

I have remained patient the past few months as the signs have been promising for a decent spell at some stage.... but toys will be thrown if come 2 weeks time we are still chasing it.

Villain

This is just pure filth!

gerrybhoy

If this comes of we will be looking at a shortage of bread and milk ala 2018

Mooro

mcburns07 wrote: »

The inevitable watering down / disappearance of this is going to be crushing :pac:

I have remained patient the past few months as the signs have been promising for a decent spell at some stage.... but toys will be thrown if come 2 weeks time we are still chasing it.

I feel your pain. I am a long time lurker on this forum. So often this winter the models have predicted a decent spell of cold weather only for it to be watered down or disappear completely as the forecasts moved out of FI territory. We can only live in hope that this will come to pass :)

KingdomRushed

Dreamy charts. The 6z GFS which just rolled out is *chef's kiss emoji.

For now let's just enjoy them for what they are. I note the synoptics are very variable after 180 hours on each run however the cards keep falling right for cold to very cold to historic beasterlies. Hopefully this is sustained

munsterlegend

mcburns07 wrote: »

The inevitable watering down / disappearance of this is going to be crushing :pac:

I have remained patient the past few months as the signs have been promising for a decent spell at some stage.... but toys will be thrown if come 2 weeks time we are still chasing it.

Expect nothing and then you won’t be disappointed. And the last thing you do is tell relatives of anything outside 72 hours. Your weather prediction credibility will be shot to pieces otherwise. Thats of course unless you are predicting rain.

YanSno

There is a 60% probability that this currently projected cold which is at 180h will happen. If this trends continue until sunday with cross model agreement we will be fairly locked in a deep freezer for at least a week or more with that robust HP. Interesting few days ahead

munsterlegend

YanSno wrote: »

There is a 60% probability that this currently projected cold which is at 180h will happen. If this trends continue until sunday with cross model agreement we will be fairly locked in a deep freezer for at least a week or more with that robust HP. Interesting few days ahead

MT rated it at 50/50 this morning so he still has his doubts. The U.K. Met office in their forecast have been indicating a wintry February for what appears a few weeks now which is no guarantee for Ireland but we can’t get a beast from the east unless the Brits do first!

JCX BXC

Wow that 06Z GFS is a beauty right to the end. Cold spell after cold spell.

mcburns07

munsterlegend wrote: »

MT rated it at 50/50 this morning so he still has his doubts. The U.K. Met office in their forecast have been indicating a wintry February for what appears a few weeks now which is no guarantee for Ireland but we can’t get a beast from the east unless the Brits do first!

It seems to me that MT usually commentates on models from the prior evening in his daily forecasts. It'll be interesting to read his thoughts tomorrow if the models keep running with this.

Tyrone212

gerrybhoy wrote: »

If this comes of we will be looking at a shortage of bread and milk ala 2018

I think we've gone beyond that after this year. They'll be no alcohol or turpentine left.

piplip87

Just told the boss there may be some disruption from in early February due to "home schooling". Thatweek we will be covering some vital skills, how to build a snowman, how to turn empty fertilizer bag into sleds.... In reality however it may be work and umbrellas

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

MT rated it at 50/50 this morning so he still has his doubts. The U.K. Met office in their forecast have been indicating a wintry February for what appears a few weeks now which is no guarantee for Ireland but we can’t get a beast from the east unless the Brits do first!

Yes, if you recall he was far more confident when we had the 2010 cold outbreak. As you say the UKMO outlook has been very accurate so far this winter. I would keep an eye on their long range, if the charts we see are going to come off there will be another upgrade in their outlook in the next few days. For now we need to keep in mind that easterlies have vanished in the past at just three days out.

TheMilkyPirate

06z is amazing. Locked into the freezer

sryanbruen

Just for the archives.

gerrybhoy

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I think we've gone beyond that after this year. They'll be no alcohol or turpentine left.

I was trying to be a bit more diplomatic

Agreed, paint thinner the works would be getting tanked

pauldry

Easterlies looking more than 50 50 but snow potential probably is. Although Id say theres a 100% chance it will snow in Ireland in the next 2 weeks!

Danger for me is that we end up the dry side. At least I could fix the gutter then.

ninebeanrows

Looks interesting in the weeks ahead for sure. Something to distract us from the other stuff for a few more weeks anyway!

Artane2002

the control run seems to be sort of agreeing with the GFS 6z... it looks similar but with weaker blocking!

John.Icy

I think sitting on a 50:50 would do no harm. Less disappointment if things don't work out for us!

The GFS op runs are continually good to stunning. 6z? More like sex-y......phonetically that makes sense! I'll grab my coat. :o

ECM, ignoring the crazy day 10 snowstorm, is dragging its heals compared to the GFS. All routes might lead to cold but we want a solid signal here with the big boys starting to sing off the same hymn sheet soon. They are rather different at the Day 8-10 region. Yes, FI, but it shows how little things can lead to pretty different outcomes. The GFS Para is all over the place, two poors runs (18z and 0z) but the 6z is better though, but goes down a different road to the OP. The GEFS panels look very good, but alignment doesn't work on all of them (SE'rly dragging in less cold air for e.g.) so still a sizeable amount of scatter in terms of 850's which the OP is at the bottom of at times. Again, all of this can change but they are reasons to not tell people the beast is coming just yet!

GEM has decided to pack it in with a big block right over us. We can't praise the GEM for its consistency and suddenly pretend it doesn't exist when it throws out a stinker instead of a stonker. All these options are potentially on the table. Wouldn't be the first easterly forecast where the high ends up sitting on top of us than to our North!

UKMO heading the right way at +144. ICON 0z this morning although only went to +180 was by far the best charts I've seen for that timepoint. An exceptionally solid block that doesn't budge an inch from +130 - 180h, just serves to steer cold easterlies at us...like it's glued to Iceland.

I am probably in the queue for the rollercoaster but I think I will hold off till a few more days like others have said.

Reversal

I had missed the Met Eireann monthly issued this week. Apart from the clearly intentional conservative language, it's fairly decent.

Week 2 (Friday 05 February to Thursday 11 February)

A quieter period of weather seems likely during this period with low pressure likely to be displaced to the south of Ireland and high pressure favoured at higher latitudes. This scenario would likely result in colder and drier than average conditions over much of the country, blocking Atlantic mobility and potentially creating a dominant easterly airflow. There are indications that some southern and eastern areas may see rainfall amounts closer to normal than areas further west and north.

Potential for wintry hazards to become dominant again, with frost and ice probable. With near normal rainfall amounts indicated in parts of Leinster and Munster, this set-up points to showers feeding in off the Irish Sea, possibly turning wintry at times. In an easterly airflow, we would also expect to see higher than average amounts of sunshine, especially in the west and north.



Week 3 (Friday 12 February to Thursday 18 February)

The most likely scenario for this period is that high pressure will become established to the northwest of Ireland, bringing a prevailing easterly or northeasterly airflow across the country with relatively blocked Atlantic flow. This would likely bring a relatively settled period with below average rainfall amounts over much of the country, with the exception of eastern coastal counties where rainfall amounts are expected to be near normal. Temperatures look likely to be close to average.

This set-up provides potential for high sunshine amounts and perhaps above average daytime temperatures, tempered by cold and frosty nights under clear skies which would result in near average temperatures overall, but it could also mean cloudy conditions trapped under the high pressure system which would negate the risk of frost at night but also produce lower temperatures by day, also resulting in near average temperatures overall. Rainfall is expected to be lower than normal, with perhaps areas on the east coast receiving normal rainfall amounts as showers stream in off the Irish Sea, possibly turning wintry at times

Meteorite58

Well is that what ye were waiting for guys ?

Certainly very cold E'ly airmass knocking on the door in the big charts, not as cold yet on the GEM but close, UKMO looks poised as well.

Day 10 ECM is such a tease.

Gonzo

amazing charts everywhere except maybe the GEM. As mentioned earlier if we can hold onto these fantastic runs across all models throughout this weekend then we should be fairly confident by Monday if this is all going to play out for us.

Hopefully no major letdowns between now and next week, we've had a very bumpy run over the past month, let's hope the rest is now smooth sailing.

anacc

I don't know am I on my own here, maybe I'm just being a moany fecker. I generally don't participate in the technical threads, that's because I'm not expert enough, but the technical discussion of charts is very interesting to observe. I hadn't checked this thread in a couple of days and had to wade through about 10 pages of chat, T-120 talk, people giving out about locations, etc. As I said, maybe I'm on my own with this thought that there should be some moderation on the thread.......

Sorry for complaining, I'll go back to lurking on the technical threads now.....

TheMilkyPirate

anacc wrote: »

I don't know am I on my own here, maybe I'm just being a moany fecker. I generally don't participate in the technical threads, that's because I'm not expert enough, but the technical discussion of charts is very interesting to observe. I hadn't checked this thread in a couple of days and had to wade through about 10 pages of chat, T-120 talk, people giving out about locations, etc. As I said, maybe I'm on my own with this thought that there should be some moderation on the thread.......

Sorry for complaining, I'll go back to lurking on the technical threads now.....

Maybe you were looking at the wrong thread because there is very rarely off topic chit chat in this thread.

Gonzo

anacc wrote: »

I don't know am I on my own here, maybe I'm just being a moany fecker. I generally don't participate in the technical threads, that's because I'm not expert enough, but the technical discussion of charts is very interesting to observe. I hadn't checked this thread in a couple of days and had to wade through about 10 pages of chat, T-120 talk, people giving out about locations, etc. As I said, maybe I'm on my own with this thought that there should be some moderation on the thread.......

Sorry for complaining, I'll go back to lurking on the technical threads now.....

Great to hear that you are enjoying the technical threads. The majority of general chat gets removed on both technical threads. Everything posted in here is based on what the models show and some discussion about what is being shown in the models is allowed. You may have been referring to the up to 120 hours technical discussion from yesterday and there was an off topic discussion happening which has since been deleted.

Hopefully you will be entertained over the next few weeks by some fascinating winter model watching and technical discussion with all the ups and downs that can bring!

Billcarson

Ukmo for next Thursday looks good, easterly setting in. Getting closer......