FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

YanSno

18z GFS has LP sliding down south from the north. One to watch, Potential for a frontal snow event on Thursday.

munsterlegend

YanSno wrote: »

18z GFS has LP sliding down south from the north. One to watch, Potential for a frontal snow event on Thursday.

Per Matt Hugo various met offices have been watching this closely for a while.

ninebeanrows

A better 18z GFS for those with the jitters

Roots 2020

Just following FI all day here. It's a complete rollercoaster.

Start of day mild to come in around 11/12 Jan. Later runs back to 17 Jan. SSW no one knows. Could be some wintry events this week.

We could get something really decent snowwise.

Speaking of snow Mr. Snowy Auld Me left at 3pm and said Winter 2020/21 was over. Felt it in his bones.

Wonder will he be back?

pad199207

Proper nice run this 18z. I wonder is it beginning to smell the SSW

Humberto Salazar

Everyone loves the pub run. And it's not disappointing this evening.

pauldry

The pub run always makes me want to go to the pub to celebrate then the morning run comes n I'm hungover again. Can we repeat this run in the morning please?

Artane2002

the pub run is one of those runs that you wish went on for a few more days, I suspect it would've shown a huge BFTE, look at the cold to the east!

sryanbruen

384 hrs away but that is one of the craziest charts I have seen, not necessarily for our conditions at home but the contrast between that warm air advection and that northerly to our east.

The GFS definitely smelled the SSW this evening. No way it hasn't with a cold pool like that.



EDIT: Artane2002 bet me to it!

mickger844posts

Mod Note: On topic please. Thanks

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

384 hrs away but that is one of the craziest charts I have seen, not necessarily for our conditions at home but the contrast between that warm air advection and that northerly to our east.

The GFS definitely smelled the SSW this evening. No way it hasn't with a cold pool like that.


EDIT: Artane2002 bet me to it!

a 48c difference in uppers between the south of France and western Russia is just mad! also, the TPV at around day 11/12 starts to kind of match up with where the SPV is, so as you say, it seems to be smelling the coffee.

Meteorite58

Will be interesting to see the ECM 0Z run in the morning. Will it come back to the cold for the weekend? The GFS 18Z is now showing for Sunday what the ECM was showing a couple of days ago. GFS is back and looking very wintry next weekend as is GEM.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

384 hrs away but that is one of the craziest charts I have seen, not necessarily for our conditions at home but the contrast between that warm air advection and that northerly to our east.

The GFS definitely smelled the SSW this evening. No way it hasn't with a cold pool like that.



EDIT: Artane2002 bet me to it!

very crazy chart indeed. +15 uppers making it almost as far north as the English channel. +18 uppers almost to the Costa Del Sol. -25 uppers in north-eastern Europe. Ireland still cool in the east but becoming much milder in the west.

Would be great to see this intense cold pool shift to the west over time and get dragged over towards the direction of Ireland and on into the Atlantic Ocean in a series of upgrades over the next week. Very wishful thinking!

Danno

The recent model runs, while are flipping between delirium and desperation over the coming days can all be disregarded.

Less flights and observation ships are transgressing the Atlantic in part thanks to Covid, and in part thanks to the Christmas holiday season.

Less data in equals less quality data out.

Whether you're a mild-weather winter fan or one that craves 6ft snow drifts down by the coast, don't read too much or rest your laurels on any particular run.

The machine is hungry (hangry to borrow a phrase). Nothing is remotely certain.

JCX BXC

Unfair to say they can be disregarded Danno, perhaps should be given less heed than previously, but they all offer insights.

Aside, I don't see why we're always so quick to use such 'strong' language. You often see here phrases such as "damp squid" "it's all over" etc etc on here based on a model run, people getting super annoyed and definitively stating that X is or is not going to happen.

The joys of weather is that we don't know, and even the most set in stone predictions don't come to pass at times. It's all just a guessing game really, but an educated guessing game. Back to your point Danno, while we may have lost important data feeds, it's still an educated guessing game, these models don't run on nothing!

Danno

JCX BXC wrote: »

Unfair to say they can be disregarded Danno, perhaps should be given less heed than previously, but they all offer insights.

Aside, I don't see why we're always so quick to use such 'strong' language. You often see here phrases such as "damp squid" "it's all over" etc etc on here based on a model run, people getting super annoyed and definitively stating that X is or is not going to happen.

The joys of weather is that we don't know, and even the most set in stone predictions don't come to pass at times. It's all just a guessing game really, but an educated guessing game. Back to your point Danno, while we may have lost important data feeds, it's still an educated guessing game, these models don't run on nothing!

Ah feck ya, I was playing both sides of the fence and you've knocked me off me perch!

Seriously though, there isn't much to be gleaned from these models at the moment - there is too much background noise.

In my experience many post-Christmas/NYE cold events have fizzled out by 9th-10th January, so those calling for a mild run after these dates have some currency. Beyond that though... it's all guesswork.

ninebeanrows

Atrocious runs this morning. Heights just unable to build over Greenland

Humberto Salazar

ECM brings mild weather in from next weekend. Looks like we are done after this week and must look further ahead. Should also say UKMO run also agrees with ECM.

icesnowfrost

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

ECM brings mild weather in from next weekend. Looks like we are done after this week and must look further ahead. Should also say UKMO run also agrees with ECM.

I wouldn’t be to quick to take the ECM for gospel just yet. I don’t think the models are getting a proper grip of what to do with next weekend just yet as to me it’s a 50/50 because of the inconsistency. I don’t think we’ll know for sure until Tuesday at the earliest. But that’s only my opinion

Snow fans in Madrid are whooping for joy at the overnight output from the UKMO and ECM whilst others there are telling them its only one run and how often has dayv6 verified in the past month on either
Regardless you've got to realise,the polar vortex has not spit or displaced yet
There will be various solutions on offer going forward, any are possible
The impact of the various splits and or displacements are not going to be known yet tbh

Also,whatever was going on in the 80s winters,I remember many of them ebbed and flowed into milder days and straight back into the freezer a few days later
Two words Shannon entropy
Let's see what happens
Meantime enjoy this week

Nqp15hhu

How can one say “we are done next weekend”. Where is your statistical confidence that this interpretation of next weeks weather is accurate and valid whilst the cold run’s from last night are wrong?

Gaoth Laidir

Danno wrote: »

The recent model runs, while are flipping between delirium and desperation over the coming days can all be disregarded.

Less flights and observation ships are transgressing the Atlantic in part thanks to Covid, and in part thanks to the Christmas holiday season.

Less data in equals less quality data out.

Whether you're a mild-weather winter fan or one that craves 6ft snow drifts down by the coast, don't read too much or rest your laurels on any particular run.

The machine is hungry (hangry to borrow a phrase). Nothing is remotely certain.

I notice Met Éireann are back to only two weather balloon launches per day from Valentia after having upped it to 4 per day when COVID started. The UKMO are also very sporadic with their launches, with not all stations launching even twice per day or at the same time. But certainly the reduced number of aircraft observations over the Atlanic is having an effect.

Nqp15hhu

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

How can one say “we are done next weekend”. Where is your confidence that this interpretation of next weeks weather is accurate and valid whilst the cold run’s from last night are wrong?

If I had a penny,well ok maybe a 50 euro note for the number of times the largely ECM based met eireann weather for the week ahead summer or winter was wrong by the wenesday,I'd be a wealthy man
That said this week looks very cold with showers beyond that who knows

Nqp15hhu

The GFS flip flops constantly. Often cold spells will appear a week or two in advance, be dropped only to appear again a few days before the arrival of the cold air.

pad199207

I think from now on take a mind blowing 18z as a bad sign to what’s coming for the morning.

Humberto Salazar

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

How can one say “we are done next weekend”. Where is your statistical confidence that this interpretation of next weeks weather is accurate and valid whilst the cold run’s from last night are wrong?

Anecdotally the GFS pub run, is so called because it goes off to show solutions that simply do not tally with the other models. And then reverts next run to the general concensus. What 2 big models show is a sinking of the high southwards and a westerly airstream from a somewhat milder Atlantic coming through. This has been a trend. It doesn't mean that will happen, it simply is what we see now. I do rate the ECM above the others. It doesn't mean they're always correct.

lostweekend3

pad199207 wrote: »

I think from now on take a mind blowing 18z as a bad sign to what’s coming for the morning.

Totally agree. 18z gfs should be banned altogether. Hopefully the SSW can come to our rescue in a few weeks but I wouldn’t be too optimistic as the one in 2019 did nothing good

pad199207

lostweekend3 wrote: »

Totally agree. 18z gfs should be banned altogether. Hopefully the SSW can come to our rescue in a few weeks but I wouldn’t be optimistic as the one in 2019 did nothing good

Watch it come back now for the 12z

Slashermcguirk

That’s par for the course on here. One bad chart run and all toys thrown out of the pram. Nothing new. It’s particularly ridiculous because people know even if the forecast for us was to be in the freezer a week away, you have to wait until a few days out for confirmation. However as soon as milder weather shows, no such confirmation is needed. Truly bizarre

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

How can one say “we are done next weekend”. Where is your statistical confidence that this interpretation of next weeks weather is accurate and valid whilst the cold run’s from last night are wrong?

Humberto Salazar

I'm all for banning the GFS 18z run. Optimism reached silly levels because if it. We've a few days of decent winter weather, with a shot or 2 of snow in some places. Then possibly a moderation for a day or three and after that, good luck no one knows.