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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

5.30 Kempton Purple Paddy 15/2 e/w , Casavola 28/1 e/w

Will give this Purple Paddy another chance. Needs a smooth passage, and can come with a sustained burst at the end.

Casavola is a punt job. 4 runs, and she's finished closer to the winner each time.

A place for Purple Paddy is all... Note to self: Purple Paddy is a horse who needs to be delivered late from off a strongish pace,,, He's got a sudden burst of speed at the business end which he can sustain for about 120-150yds, or so... Not much good if he's too far back, and with a wall of horses in front of him.

Must back Purple Paddy in similar races as the last twice; but in 8-9 runner affairs, and not 13 or 14 like what he's being tackling recently,,

Not much with the olde P & L - about 1.5ps loss, and will update later..

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

8.00 Kempton Comeofeeltheforce 22/1 , Amnaa 80/1

Two each way punts. Nothing more to say really.

Came nowhere that day.... And it's only gone and won at 40/1 15 or so minutes ago

Not my day for not taking a better look at cards

:pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

5.30 Kempton Purple Paddy 15/2 e/w , Casavola 28/1 e/w

Will give this Purple Paddy another chance. Needs a smooth passage, and can come with a sustained burst at the end.

Casavola is a punt job. 4 runs, and she's finished closer to the winner each time.

Casavola out to 80-100/1 :P A fourth place will do

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

7/12

A couple I really like today, and one's a punt...

4.05 Wolves Greengage 8/1 e/w
I think 12fs at the course is ideal for this mare. She was staying on well at the course over 2 1/2fs less a couple of runs back. That was in a Class 5 - goes today in a Class 6. Drawn wide in 10 should be ideal for a hold-up performer. Is twice a course winner, and has won over today's trip before at Newcastle.

3.55 Chelmsford Lady Alavesa 22/1 e/w
Another mare, and performs best when held up. Only 8 in this race, so hopefully she won't encounter too much trouble when making a late bid for glory. Has been banging on the door the last twice she ran here (over C & D). I'm confident of a good run today at a juicy price.

Plumpton 2.05 Mon Petit Cheri 150/1 e/w hope
I was scrolling through the racecard, and "The Chase" was on, and just as I was glancing at this one a question about Tony Blair was asked by Bradders. Could be written in stars, and her trainer who is also a female has been among the winners recently, and Paige the jockey has feminine credentials also. This one is a filly, so in the same ballpark as the other two (confident) selections. Stranger things have been known to happen eh?

Gluck Am due

I've only gone and picked the wrong day to have a punt on this one, - I scarcely looked at any of the jumps cards today - she's after coming 2nd today at 200 to flippin one in the 12.15 Plumpton :pac:

[Deleted User]

5.30 Kempton Purple Paddy 15/2 e/w , Casavola 28/1 e/w

Will give this Purple Paddy another chance. Needs a smooth passage, and can come with a sustained burst at the end.

Casavola is a punt job. 4 runs, and she's finished closer to the winner each time.

[Deleted User]

13/12

Running P & L + 42.7pts

Invested 8pts.

Returns:

Dame du Soir 2.30 (done e/w at 22s) places at a quarter the odds a place with a 15p rule 4 returning 5.6pts
Balleticon 1.55 (done win at 4/1) wins returning 5pts

Total at play 8pts - returns 10.6pts

Profit for the day 2.6pts

Running invested total - 607pts

Total P & L + 45.3pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.30 Southwell Dame du Soir 22/1 e/w

Bit of a punt this one. I think the second and third favourites are vulnerable; either owing to the ground, which is soft (Nordica Bleue) , and the trip which may be too short at 2m (Shantung). The selection is mainly a chaser, and, in her few hurdles bids she has only prevailed once. I'm hoping she can take a lead, and at least be still in contention before the taps are turned on.

Not at all confident about this one's chances, but at the prices I can't resist having a bet all the same :P Saying that though, if one or two at the top of the market don't run as well as expected the door could be left open for a bigger priced one to get a place.

2nd

Delighted with that - Nordica Bleue withdrawn at start left just two places with only 7 runners. Was touch and go if she'd get placed coming to the last.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

1.15 Comeatchoo 10/1 e/w

No joy - never have much luck backing Hollie; at least she's not a crook, unlike J O'Neill jnr and esp senior. fqerrs

[Deleted User]

1.15 Comeatchoo 10/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12.55 Southwell Joly Maker 9/2 win , Nobel Leader 11/1 e/w

Think Jonjo's is a massive price at 9/2; although it has drifted from 5/2. On form it has the best chance here no doubt. Am not understanding the drift at all.

Nobel Leader at 11/1 I can't resist going each way on, as he's won at this distance before on soft ground. As well as that; 8 of the 9 horses have ran here before, and the 2 I've gone for are the only ones to have won at Southwell - both with a strike rate of 1 from 3.

Also done a reverse forecast - just sayin....

Gluck

:mad:

Rancid - jockey never gave him a chance. A pure crookery combo. What can ya do when a horse is almost twice the price he should be... drifters win too :mad:

:mad::mad:

[Deleted User]

pottokblue wrote: »

Good luck with Jolymaker I have it in my placepot. I also have a WIN bet on Mocremehas. I think that JP might have a couple of Sunday winners and Limerick to win the Liam Cup

Yeah, that Mocacreme Has looks the likely winner... Not for me at 5/4 though.. His first run over the sticks was promising..

The one I'd like to be on each way; as I only just looked at the race, and he is still a nice price is Balleticon at around 9/2. Might back him yet. Was a good run at Bangor lto in a Bumper, where he came a respectable 5th, not beaten far in a good time. First run over the sticks, and a long absence though.

Not liking the second fav The Hoax at all, as he ran no sort of race on heavy in his bumper, but he did come 2nd lto in a hurdles race, but that was on good ground.

Maybe back Balleticon e/w, or w/o jolly, or both

Decisions decisions :pac:

Edit to add I have done Balleticon win at 4/1 just now - for stats purposes

Good luck all

pottokblue

Good luck with Jolymaker I have it in my placepot. I also have a WIN bet on Mocremehas. I think that JP might have a couple of Sunday winners and Limerick to win the Liam Cup

[Deleted User]

12.55 Southwell Joly Maker 9/2 win , Nobel Leader 11/1 e/w

Think Jonjo's is a massive price at 9/2; although it has drifted from 5/2. On form it has the best chance here no doubt. Am not understanding the drift at all.

Nobel Leader at 11/1 I can't resist going each way on, as he's won at this distance before on soft ground. As well as that; 8 of the 9 horses have ran here before, and the 2 I've gone for are the only ones to have won at Southwell - both with a strike rate of 1 from 3.

Also done a reverse forecast - just sayin....

Gluck

[Deleted User]

A poor day yesterday, and the majority of races I'm not liking the look of for trying to find a few darts. Hopefully the above can at least put up a bold showing. It's her second hurdles outing in a row on the back of her most recent two runs prior to that over the larger obstacles; where she unseated the rider in one, and fell in the other.

Has had 1 win in both chase and hurdles, and they were over 2 miles, so it's interesting that Dame du Soir's latest outing over hurdles was over 2 1/2 miles. Could be the trainer was trying to get her to drop a few pounds to give her a chance in a race like today's, and thus give her confidence if and when she tackles the larger obstacles again.

Her trainer David Bridgwater has a very good strike rate at the course with 13 winners from 62 runners over the past 10 years.

[Deleted User]

2.30 Southwell Dame du Soir 22/1 e/w

Bit of a punt this one. I think the second and third favourites are vulnerable; either owing to the ground, which is soft (Nordica Bleue) , and the trip which may be too short at 2m (Shantung). The selection is mainly a chaser, and, in her few hurdles bids she has only prevailed once. I'm hoping she can take a lead, and at least be still in contention before the taps are turned on.

Not at all confident about this one's chances, but at the prices I can't resist having a bet all the same :P Saying that though, if one or two at the top of the market don't run as well as expected the door could be left open for a bigger priced one to get a place.

[Deleted User]

12/12

Running P & L + 54.8pts

Invested 32pts. Melodic Charm 7.15 NR @ 2pts. 30pts in play.

Returns:

Snow Ocean 5.45 (done e/w at 15/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.5pts
Kapono 7.15 (done e/w at 20/1) places at a fifth the odds a place with a 5p rule 4 returning 4.8pts
Iconic Knight 7.45 (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8.6pts
Storm Over 7.45 places at 5/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 2pts

Total at play 30pts - returns 17.9pts

Loss for the day 12.1pts

Running invested total - 599pts

Total P & L + 42.7pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

I see Micky's at it again - another Hammond plunge in the 4.45 Wol with Burnage Boy into 14s from 40s... Am not seeing the angle myself - very poor form, and I think it's the jockey's first ever ride.

Was trying to make a case for Al Ozzdi myself, but couldn't.

Had another look, and at a big price I went for AMOR FATI 16/1 e/w. This one is a bit hit and miss, but is a 3 time course winner, and can get involved here with a decent late run. Gina Mangan; who claims 7, takes the ride. Trainer David Evans is in form as well. The combo have had a recent winner with Siavash (who goes in the 5.45 under Charles Bishop this time) last month. Can make a case for a few in this from an each way perspective, but apart from Amor Fati, they are too short imo...

[Deleted User]

A couple at Donny

12.55 Theatre Legend 9/1 , Shantaluze 22/1

Each way on t'brace; hopefully one wins, and t'other comes placed. Soft ground and following pace could be the key in this ere race

[Deleted User]

A few at Wolves each way to keep it going. Quite a few in a couple of races :pac:

4.15 Bruyere 16/1
5.15 Bird For Life 9/1
5.45 Snow Ocean 15/2 , Goddess Of Fire 14/1
7.15 Melodic Charm 9/1 , El Hombre 15/2 , Kapono 20/1
7.45 Storm Over 9/2 , Iconic Knight 11/2 , Sepahi 40/1 , Bombastic 15/2 , Glorious Charmer 28/1
8.15 Heer We Go Again 8/1

At the prices I think Bruyere, and Heer We Go Again are the picks of the bunch. Goddess Of Fire in the 5.45 is the most interesting one; especially if she sees any money.

ref this one for future: 1056rkbrdld

Hopefully can collect on 1 or 3

Gluck

[Deleted User]

11/12

Running P & L + 38.8pts

Invested 33pts. Jubilympics 1.15 NR @ 2pts, Cathal's Star 3.25 NR @ 2pts, 7.45 Trulove NR (meeting abd) @2pts. 27pts in play.

Returns:

Knocknamona 12.55 (done e/w at 20/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 26pts
Baratineur 2.40 places at 5/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2pts
Geography Teacher (done e/w at 10/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 20p rule 4 returning 2.6pts
Come On Teddy 3.35 (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8.6pts
Agrapart 3.35 places at 14/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 3.8pts

Total at play 27pts - returns 43pts

Profit for the day 16pts

Running invested total - 569pts

Total P & L + 54.8pts

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Some more each way hopefuls

12.40 Chelt Rowland Ward 16/1
1.15 Chelt Jubilympics 12/1
3.00 Chelt Beau Du Brizais 13/2
3.35 Chelt Agrapart 12/1 Come On Teddy 11/2

5.15 Southwell Free Love 15/2
6.15 Southwell Mostallim 14/1
7.45 Southwell Trulove 22/1

A winner

And Agrapart comes 4th at a fifth... Not too bad...

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

3.25 Doncaster Cathal's Star 25/1 e/w , Zafarshan 33/1 e/w , Frau Georgia 22/1 e/w

Also, to add; I'm not liking the fav Bushypark here. Ground supposedly goodish. Races he won impressively recently were on soft and heavy going. That would make him a solid place lay for me at somewhere around 1.25, but I'm not on the exchanges, so won't be doing him myself.

I hope the ground stays the way it currently is described as good to soft, as that would favour my selections.

Couldn't have been any more wrong there

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Third - so close

Was ahead jumping the last - good ride, but the odds on jolly just got up; was hoping at least he'd be beat :pac:

[Deleted User]

Thirteen horse race here in Bangor 2.40; but the 10/11 fav "will take a lot of beating"

:pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.17 Doncaster Doctor Dex 20/1 e/w

Ran okay - looked like threatening about 4-5fs out; but faded alas in the last 2 1/2fs, or so.... Got a bit of a run though, so there's that.. 'A run for our money' is part of this craic too - won't be collecting, but I don't expect any returns from at least half the selections... Many more to come, and hopefully get a few shouts (albeit muted :pac: - damn apartments and looney neighbours :mad:

:P ) in; plus might get a winner again yet...

Come on Baratineur!

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

GO ON YA DANCCCCEEEEEERR!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don't listen to em on S TV - Done their best to put everyone off - "don't know why etc.... Back the favourite" :eek: :eek: :eek:

YAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

raging, all me money on brogan in chelt horse didnt run, didnt get the money back in time!!

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12.32 Don Casa Tall 10/3 win , Peur De Rien 5/1 win

So close... Thought I had that coming to the last

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already

:pac:

[Deleted User]

2.52 Donc Oh Land Abloom 8/1 win