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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

7.30 Chelmsford Essgee Nics 6/1 win

Last 2 runs over C & D were okay, but from high enough draws. Is drawn lower today. Another one that has seen money today, but still at a fair price. Is current third favourite, and I at least prefer him over the 2 ahead of him in the market.

[Deleted User]

8.00 Chelmsford Valletta Sunset 10/1 e/w

A few in this that cases can be made for. This one is a bit of value; as I feel on form, and price, that he has solid win and place credentials. Latest run; which was at Lingfield over 2fs shorter, was his first on the AW. I feel he has some scope for improvement. First time blinkers too, and I only view this as a positive, though the pundits generally like to differ - they can't hurt anyway.

[Deleted User]

1.50 Newcastle Notre Ami 14/1 e/w , Madam Scully 40/1 e/w

Notre Ami is topweight and down in grade, and could be capable of a bold showing.

Madam Scully is the bottomweight, and a big price, but is not out of this imo. Mare has only had 9 outings over hurdles, and her run at Catterick in January could well see her go close here.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

5.30 delayed - Zahirah win 4/1

[Deleted User]

6.30 Chel Invincible Larne win

Only 5 in this. Think this fella will be favoured to win here; provided the step up to a Class 4 isn't too high a grade, - has only won 2 Class 5s before - as he's been running well at the course lately. I think he's capable of putting in the fastest time today. Price smaller than I normally put up, but I think he wins today.

5/2 and bigger currently - might wait a bit to see if he goes a bit higher. Still counts for stats tho :pac:

[Deleted User]

7.00 Chel Global Art 9/2 e/w . Lucky's Dream 12/1 e/w

A trappy affair with only 6 going to post, so I'm going to chance 2 in a race where the topweight and fav Power of States could be vulnerable. Not for stats, but a combi forecast with jolly as well

[Deleted User]

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

Some more each way hopefuls

12.40 Chelt Rowland Ward 16/1
1.15 Chelt Jubilympics 12/1
3.00 Chelt Beau Du Brizais 13/2
3.35 Chelt Agrapart 12/1 Come On Teddy 11/2

5.15 Southwell Free Love 15/2
6.15 Southwell Mostallim 14/1
7.45 Southwell Trulove 22/1

[Deleted User]

10/12

Running P & L + 36.8pts

Invested 19pts

Returns:

Donald Dux 11.45 (done win at 7/2) wins returning 4.5pts
Madam Scully 1.50 places at 50/1 a fifth the odds returning 11pts
Lucky's Dream 7.00 places at 18/1 a quarter the odds returning 5.5pts

Total at play 19pts - returns 21pts

Profit for the day 2pts

Running invested total 542pts

Total P & L + 38.8pts

[Deleted User]

3.25 Doncaster Cathal's Star 25/1 e/w , Zafarshan 33/1 e/w , Frau Georgia 22/1 e/w

Also, to add; I'm not liking the fav Bushypark here. Ground supposedly goodish. Races he won impressively recently were on soft and heavy going. That would make him a solid place lay for me at somewhere around 1.25, but I'm not on the exchanges, so won't be doing him myself.

I hope the ground stays the way it currently is described as good to soft, as that would favour my selections.

[Deleted User]

12.32 Don Casa Tall 10/3 win , Peur De Rien 5/1 win

[Deleted User]

2.17 Doncaster Doctor Dex 20/1 e/w

[Deleted User]

2.52 Donc Oh Land Abloom 8/1 win

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already

:pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12.32 Don Casa Tall 10/3 win , Peur De Rien 5/1 win

So close... Thought I had that coming to the last

but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

raging, all me money on brogan in chelt horse didnt run, didnt get the money back in time!!

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

GO ON YA DANCCCCEEEEEERR!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don't listen to em on S TV - Done their best to put everyone off - "don't know why etc.... Back the favourite" :eek: :eek: :eek:

YAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.17 Doncaster Doctor Dex 20/1 e/w

Ran okay - looked like threatening about 4-5fs out; but faded alas in the last 2 1/2fs, or so.... Got a bit of a run though, so there's that.. 'A run for our money' is part of this craic too - won't be collecting, but I don't expect any returns from at least half the selections... Many more to come, and hopefully get a few shouts (albeit muted :pac: - damn apartments and looney neighbours :mad:

:P ) in; plus might get a winner again yet...

Come on Baratineur!

[Deleted User]

Thirteen horse race here in Bangor 2.40; but the 10/11 fav "will take a lot of beating"

:pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Third - so close

Was ahead jumping the last - good ride, but the odds on jolly just got up; was hoping at least he'd be beat :pac:

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

3.25 Doncaster Cathal's Star 25/1 e/w , Zafarshan 33/1 e/w , Frau Georgia 22/1 e/w

Also, to add; I'm not liking the fav Bushypark here. Ground supposedly goodish. Races he won impressively recently were on soft and heavy going. That would make him a solid place lay for me at somewhere around 1.25, but I'm not on the exchanges, so won't be doing him myself.

I hope the ground stays the way it currently is described as good to soft, as that would favour my selections.

Couldn't have been any more wrong there

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Some more each way hopefuls

12.40 Chelt Rowland Ward 16/1
1.15 Chelt Jubilympics 12/1
3.00 Chelt Beau Du Brizais 13/2
3.35 Chelt Agrapart 12/1 Come On Teddy 11/2

5.15 Southwell Free Love 15/2
6.15 Southwell Mostallim 14/1
7.45 Southwell Trulove 22/1

A winner

And Agrapart comes 4th at a fifth... Not too bad...

[Deleted User]

11/12

Running P & L + 38.8pts

Invested 33pts. Jubilympics 1.15 NR @ 2pts, Cathal's Star 3.25 NR @ 2pts, 7.45 Trulove NR (meeting abd) @2pts. 27pts in play.

Returns:

Knocknamona 12.55 (done e/w at 20/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 26pts
Baratineur 2.40 places at 5/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2pts
Geography Teacher (done e/w at 10/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 20p rule 4 returning 2.6pts
Come On Teddy 3.35 (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8.6pts
Agrapart 3.35 places at 14/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 3.8pts

Total at play 27pts - returns 43pts

Profit for the day 16pts

Running invested total - 569pts

Total P & L + 54.8pts

[Deleted User]

A few at Wolves each way to keep it going. Quite a few in a couple of races :pac:

4.15 Bruyere 16/1
5.15 Bird For Life 9/1
5.45 Snow Ocean 15/2 , Goddess Of Fire 14/1
7.15 Melodic Charm 9/1 , El Hombre 15/2 , Kapono 20/1
7.45 Storm Over 9/2 , Iconic Knight 11/2 , Sepahi 40/1 , Bombastic 15/2 , Glorious Charmer 28/1
8.15 Heer We Go Again 8/1

At the prices I think Bruyere, and Heer We Go Again are the picks of the bunch. Goddess Of Fire in the 5.45 is the most interesting one; especially if she sees any money.

ref this one for future: 1056rkbrdld

Hopefully can collect on 1 or 3

Gluck

[Deleted User]

A couple at Donny

12.55 Theatre Legend 9/1 , Shantaluze 22/1

Each way on t'brace; hopefully one wins, and t'other comes placed. Soft ground and following pace could be the key in this ere race

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

I see Micky's at it again - another Hammond plunge in the 4.45 Wol with Burnage Boy into 14s from 40s... Am not seeing the angle myself - very poor form, and I think it's the jockey's first ever ride.

Was trying to make a case for Al Ozzdi myself, but couldn't.

Had another look, and at a big price I went for AMOR FATI 16/1 e/w. This one is a bit hit and miss, but is a 3 time course winner, and can get involved here with a decent late run. Gina Mangan; who claims 7, takes the ride. Trainer David Evans is in form as well. The combo have had a recent winner with Siavash (who goes in the 5.45 under Charles Bishop this time) last month. Can make a case for a few in this from an each way perspective, but apart from Amor Fati, they are too short imo...

[Deleted User]

12/12

Running P & L + 54.8pts

Invested 32pts. Melodic Charm 7.15 NR @ 2pts. 30pts in play.

Returns:

Snow Ocean 5.45 (done e/w at 15/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.5pts
Kapono 7.15 (done e/w at 20/1) places at a fifth the odds a place with a 5p rule 4 returning 4.8pts
Iconic Knight 7.45 (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8.6pts
Storm Over 7.45 places at 5/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 2pts

Total at play 30pts - returns 17.9pts

Loss for the day 12.1pts

Running invested total - 599pts

Total P & L + 42.7pts

[Deleted User]

2.30 Southwell Dame du Soir 22/1 e/w

Bit of a punt this one. I think the second and third favourites are vulnerable; either owing to the ground, which is soft (Nordica Bleue) , and the trip which may be too short at 2m (Shantung). The selection is mainly a chaser, and, in her few hurdles bids she has only prevailed once. I'm hoping she can take a lead, and at least be still in contention before the taps are turned on.

Not at all confident about this one's chances, but at the prices I can't resist having a bet all the same :P Saying that though, if one or two at the top of the market don't run as well as expected the door could be left open for a bigger priced one to get a place.

[Deleted User]

A poor day yesterday, and the majority of races I'm not liking the look of for trying to find a few darts. Hopefully the above can at least put up a bold showing. It's her second hurdles outing in a row on the back of her most recent two runs prior to that over the larger obstacles; where she unseated the rider in one, and fell in the other.

Has had 1 win in both chase and hurdles, and they were over 2 miles, so it's interesting that Dame du Soir's latest outing over hurdles was over 2 1/2 miles. Could be the trainer was trying to get her to drop a few pounds to give her a chance in a race like today's, and thus give her confidence if and when she tackles the larger obstacles again.

Her trainer David Bridgwater has a very good strike rate at the course with 13 winners from 62 runners over the past 10 years.

[Deleted User]

12.55 Southwell Joly Maker 9/2 win , Nobel Leader 11/1 e/w

Think Jonjo's is a massive price at 9/2; although it has drifted from 5/2. On form it has the best chance here no doubt. Am not understanding the drift at all.

Nobel Leader at 11/1 I can't resist going each way on, as he's won at this distance before on soft ground. As well as that; 8 of the 9 horses have ran here before, and the 2 I've gone for are the only ones to have won at Southwell - both with a strike rate of 1 from 3.

Also done a reverse forecast - just sayin....

Gluck