Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

Non solum non ambulabit

SortingYouOut wrote: »

You can tell from looking at them that they were unemployed well before Covid. If we were being told not to wear masks, they'd be about chanting for their use. They just want to cause disturbance and crave a sense of meaning in their empty, lonely lives.

Sad but true. These sad souls have nothing in their lives and raging against masks has given them as sense of belonging and purpose.

It's a real shame they can't channel their desperation in a positive way.

Dr. Bre

alentejo wrote: »

A good beating might do the trick for those Dubs!

You might get infected

CIARAN_BOYLE

AdamD wrote: »

Providing a negative test and still needing to restrict movements for 5-7 days is complete overkill (and won't be followed).

Unfortunately the test doesn't detect cases before viral shedding begins.

Maybe we should just ban travel?

Non solum non ambulabit

Deleted User wrote: »

Great charts - thanks again Raind

MonkstownHoop

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Sad but true. These sad souls have nothing in their lives and raging against masks has given them as sense of belonging and purpose.

It's a real shame they can't channel their desperation in a positive way.

That would require effort and intelligence

Loafing Oaf

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

If it doesn't respond to level 5, what other plan is there?

Close the schools

Failing that

mr zulu

Hospital
307
44

Thierry12

mandrake04 wrote: »

That's probably true with 20/20 Hindsight. Calling it is heck of a gamble, there's still 500-600 cases per day and 4 weeks to get that below 100... even with L5 not out of the woods yet.

Yeah hard to blame them

Jim_Hodge

OwenM wrote: »

We had a fraction of their incidence and they still don’t have anything like an Irish level 5 in place, 4 people allowed to visit a house, weddings with 40 people, they had 19k cases on the day we went to level 5 with twice our population, we had 1,300.

Any wonder they're up the creek so. Maybe they should have followed our lead.

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

Providing a negative test and still needing to restrict movements for 5-7 days is complete overkill (and won't be followed).

And this is in essence is one of the reasons why a large number of incidents of transmission still occur. Some people just don't understand that a negative test doesn't necessarily mean you don't have the virus.

Three separate incidents of misunderstanding guidelines I have heard about in the last 10 days.

- A neighbour of a relative got the text alert that they were a close contact of a confirmed case. They had only one contact outside the home. This individual was someone they worked with part time. This individuals wife had got symptoms, got tested, tested positive, they went for a test, tested positive and kept working part time throughout, including after the testing positive, "shur I felt fine, I didn't need to isolate"

-Work colleague told me about their sister who is an Optician. A couple of weeks ago the assistant in the shop was going through covid questionnaire with a customer prior to consultation when the customer tell them "I went for test yesterday, shur it will be negative though, I get a cough like this every year". They were pretty much ran from the shop, in the nicest possible way. Turns out they were positive, but luckily no one in the shop caught it

-Friend of mine told about his neighbour who's kid was sent for test as close contact. Neighbour called him up at the weekend to come around for a few scoops in the little bar he had setup in the backroom. "Shur the kids are all gone to bed anyway"

Stheno

Deleted User wrote: »

And this is in essence is one of the reasons why a large number of incidents of transmission still occur. Some people just don't understand that a negative test doesn't necessarily mean you don't have the virus.

Three separate incidents of misunderstanding guidelines I have heard about in the last 10 days.

- A neighbour of a relative got the text alert that they were a close contact of a confirmed case. They had only one contact outside the home. This individual was someone they worked with part time. This individuals wife had got symptoms, got tested, tested positive, they went for a test, tested positive and kept working part time throughout, including after the testing positive, "shur I felt fine, I didn't need to isolate"

-Work colleague told me about their sister who is an Optician. A couple of weeks ago the assistant in the shop was going through covid questionnaire with a customer prior to consultation when the customer tell them "I went for test yesterday, shur it will be negative though, I get a cough like this every year". They were pretty much ran from the shop, in the nicest possible way. Turns out they were positive, but luckily no one in the shop caught it

-Friend of mine told about his neighbour who's kid was sent for test as close contact. Neighbour called him up at the weekend to come around for a few scoops in the little bar he had setup in the backroom. "Shur the kids are all gone to bed anyway"

Is it misunderstanding or wilful ignoring of the advice though?

OwenM

is_that_so wrote: »

Have you a time limit on this or will we just stick with it indefinitely as a precaution? We need other tools for this, none of which seem to be forthcoming from those who make such decisions. We also need far better predictions from them.

True, this logic would have us trying to eradicate the common cold or locking down forever because somebody might get meningitis.

Eod100

AdamD wrote: »

Providing a negative test and still needing to restrict movements for 5-7 days is complete overkill (and won't be followed).

I wouldn't say it's overkill as can take 14 days for incubation plus could pick it up on flight over say. I agree it likely won't be followed in a lot of cases unfortunately.

Loafing Oaf

Eod100 wrote: »

I wouldn't say it's overkill as can take 14 days for incubation plus could pick it up on flight over say. I agree it likely won't be followed in a lot of cases unfortunately.

If you were going to actually enforce it, surely it would put most people off coming to Ireland

OwenM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Unfortunately the test doesn't detect cases before viral shedding begins.

Maybe we should just ban travel?

Yeah and while we are at it why not just stay in lockdown forever, people can grow vegetables in their back gardens and never come out.

is_that_so

Some observations on long term plans, or lack of them in Europe.

Most countries are reacting without a long-term plan, simply trying to avoid the worst. Officials differ about the best way to bring the numbers down again, and how low a level they should strive for. And no one knows what comes next.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/europe-locking-down-second-time-what-its-long-term-plan

Eod100

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If you were going to actually enforce it, surely it would put most people off coming to Ireland

Well I'm not sure people should be travelling here for non-essential reasons for now either way but can't see it being enforced.

That said mandatory 14 day quarantine was seen as heavyhanded but apparently locking down the country for a second time isn't. I know which I'd prefer if there was a choice!

seamus

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

If it doesn't respond to level 5, what other plan is there?

I don't accept Holohan's doom and gloom about Dublin based on a single day's figures. It's apparent at this stage that Dr. Holohan only understands the finger-wagging form of communication, and goes by the ethos that, "If you can't say something negative, then say nothing at all". Which would not be rare in doctors of his tenure.

It would be reasonable to suggest that given the population of Dublin and the amount of inbound and outbound travel for work, that there's a dragging effect on Dublin cases from the rest of the country.
We saw at the start of October that skyrocketing cases in the rest of the country began to drag Dublin numbers up. Likewise on the way back down, Dublin's reduction has to be "dragged" down by the rest of the country and we won't see number properly drop in Dublin until they massively drop in other counties. Meath & Westmeath in particular.

In the spirit of turning around the curve being like "turning an oil tanker" (I think Tony said it), it would make sense that a single county making up 1/4 of the country would turn much slower than any of the others.

mandrake04

Eod100 wrote: »

I wouldn't say it's overkill as can take 14 days for incubation plus could pick it up on flight over say. I agree it likely won't be followed in a lot of cases unfortunately.

yep look at Belgium they reduced their isolation to 1 week on October the 1st, I know most of Europe is in the Toilet but compared to their neighbours Belgium is in the sewer

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

And this is in essence is one of the reasons why a large number of incidents of transmission still occur. Some people just don't understand that a negative test doesn't necessarily mean you don't have the virus.

I'm not misunderstanding anything. The likelihood of somebody having Covid at any given moment of time is extremely low. The likelihood of somebody who has just tested negative for covid actually having it is negligable. That's why this policy is overkill. We're not talking about close contacts or people we actually have reason to suspect for having it here, just anyone who's been on a flight.

caveat emptor

mandrake04 wrote: »

yep look at Belgium they reduced their isolation to 1 week on October the 1st, I know most of Europe is in the Toilet but compared to their neighbours Belgium is in the sewer

Eod100

AdamD wrote: »

I'm not misunderstanding anything. The likelihood of somebody having Covid at any given moment of time is extremely low. The likelihood of somebody who has just tested negative for covid actually having it is negligable. That's why this policy is overkill. We're not talking about close contacts or people we actually have reason to suspect for having it here, just anyone who's been on a flight.

I'd prefer travelers to have this mild inconvenience then risk importing virus in large quantities especially if coming from a high risk country. It's also better for them than having to restrict movements for full 14 days.

suicide_circus

wadacrack wrote: »

It can be done in Africa with little resources. Europe need to beat this virus after this winter

https://twitter.com/ImogenFoulkes/status/1323306736334327810

That tweet mentions Sierra Leone, a country where life expectancy is 54 years. 54!!! Africa is dealing well with covid because populations are very young and the very old are already dead.

owlbethere

Stheno wrote: »

Is it misunderstanding or wilful ignoring of the advice though?

It's ignorance and selfishness bending the guidelines to suit themselves.

Eod100

NPEHT at the Transport Committee now on off chance anyone is interested:

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/oireachtas-tv/cr3-live/

bb1234567

You'd think that Lombardy would have gotten a break due to high immunity but no, it is yet again the epicentre of Italy's outbreak. It is one of 4 regions of Italy deemed 'Scenario 4' where the current situation could "could quickly lead to a high number of cases and clear signs of overload of welfare services, without the possibility of tracing the origin of new cases."

https://www.thelocal.it/20201103/coronavirus-what-is-italys-scenario-4-and-which-regions-are-already-in-it

Would be interesting to know which parts of Lombardy are recording most new cases, 65% of people in Bergamo had antibodies in May so if places like this which had widepread outbreaks in the first wave are recording thousands of new cases then that is worrying as it means the herd immunity threshhold is extremely high or that reinfection is likely occurring

screamer

is_that_so wrote: »

I have no idea but somebody had better have one anyway!

Lockdown Italy or Spain style. Only allowed out to buy groceries or medicines or to exercise within I think it was 2kms of home, needed a letter on you at all times when out and about. We think our level 5 is bad, there’s was way way worse. I had a colleague in Spain at that time and he told me about the severity of the restrictions.

screamer

owlbethere wrote: »

It's ignorance and selfishness bending the guidelines to suit themselves.

And probably a good dose of, sure I’ll be grand, I won’t catch it.....

owlbethere

caveat emptor wrote: »

Particular kind of stupid.

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1323308792193470464?s=20

They are pure filthy scumbags.

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

I'm not misunderstanding anything. The likelihood of somebody having Covid at any given moment of time is extremely low. The likelihood of somebody who has just tested negative for covid actually having it is negligable. That's why this policy is overkill. We're not talking about close contacts or people we actually have reason to suspect for having it here, just anyone who's been on a flight.

Its based on a risk assessment. The likelihood of someone tested randomly returning a negative result and having covid that is not yet detectable is very low. The likelihood of someone who is a household contact of a confirmed case returning negative result and subsequently testing positive is relatively high. In the middle is the myriad of other potential scenarios, and it is not unreasonable to suggest travel is a higher risk than average