Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

MelbourneMan

seamus wrote: »

I think it's important that this point is focussed on quite strongly.

What will happen, without a doubt whatsoever is that anyone who arrives back for Xmas, will not observe their restriction requirements. One of the major outbreaks in July or August occured because someone arrived in the country and "went to see their family before going into isolation". And of course, spread it to them.

Nobody is going to land on 20th December and isolate. Even if they nominate their parents' house as the place where they isolate, there will be a host of visitors.

So, unless we're willing to accept Xmas-related covid spread as a thing and deal with it, we need a stricter travel regime. Whether that's a closing the airports for the month of December, mandatory quarantine in the Citywest hotel, or a rapid test regime, something is going to have to be done.

Hello. I see this misreading of risk and travel happening frequently, and mean to write a fuller explanation on it to facilitate a more correct understanding.

But briefly, travel in itself has very little indeed to do with transmission of the virus. People irrationally overestimate the risk of the 'outsider'. The key element is the number of interactions of people. Certainly, reducing international travel reduces interactions. But so too does closing cinemas, shoe shops, or gyms.

I shall come back to this point, and shall include it in the 'Key Points' posting I mean to put together to close off many of the recurring issues raised and, in many cases, poorly or erroneously answered.

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

Not exactly news but Dr de Gascun saying hoping some reports from 3rd stage of clinical trails due out by end of this month but cautious that it will work 100% or 100% of people will take it up so measures in place for forseeable future.

No vaccine works 100%. A lot of the caution is down to the fact that the early release of the data means the the sample is not large enough to draw a conclusion that 90% are protected, even if it is the case that they are. The released results may state something like "Based on results vaccine is effective in providing immunity in 66% of subjects". This does not mean it is ineffective in 34%. It means its at least 66% effective. Such a result would be generated if after 34 people who took part in the trial got covid, 30 had received the placebo and 4 the vaccine.

At a later stage in the trial once we reached 340 infections, 300 in the placebo and 40 in the vaccine group, the effectivity could be stated as at least 85%. Same raw proportion, but because of the larger sample size, you have increased confidence in the true proportion.

By reporting earlier in the trial, we sacrifice the power of the study to detect a very large effect. It does not mean that the is only a small effect however.

GazzaL

seamus wrote: »

I think it's important that this point is focussed on quite strongly.

What will happen, without a doubt whatsoever is that anyone who arrives back for Xmas, will not observe their restriction requirements. One of the major outbreaks in July or August occured because someone arrived in the country and "went to see their family before going into isolation". And of course, spread it to them.

Nobody is going to land on 20th December and isolate. Even if they nominate their parents' house as the place where they isolate, there will be a host of visitors.

So, unless we're willing to accept Xmas-related covid spread as a thing and deal with it, we need a stricter travel regime. Whether that's a closing the airports for the month of December, mandatory quarantine in the Citywest hotel, or a rapid test regime, something is going to have to be done.

There's already been some fantastic solutions proposed on here:
1. Make the visitors stand at the end of the garden.
2. Awnings and heaters. Get those installed before Christmas and you can have Christmas dinner with the extended family outside with the pissing rain blowing in on you.

TonyMaloney

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. I see this misreading of risk and travel happening frequently, and mean to write a fuller explanation on it to facilitate a more correct understanding.

But briefly, travel in itself has very little indeed to do with transmission of the virus. People irrationally overestimate the risk of the 'outsider'. The key element is the number of interactions of people. Certainly, reducing international travel reduces interactions. But so too does closing cinemas, shoe shops, or gyms.

I shall come back to this point, and shall include it in the 'Key Points' posting I mean to put together to close off many of the recurring issues raised and, in many cases, poorly or erroneously answered.

Yes. I too will one day return and eviscerate all of my opponents with facts.

I just can't be arsed right now.

seamus

MelbourneMan wrote: »

But briefly, travel in itself has very little indeed to do with transmission of the virus. People irrationally overestimate the risk of the 'outsider'. The key element is the number of interactions of people. Certainly, reducing international travel reduces interactions. But so too does closing cinemas, shoe shops, or gyms.

I suspect you'll probably find a considerable degree of crossover between "people coming home for Xmas" and "people with a high number of interactions with people".

MelbourneMan

seamus wrote: »

I suspect you'll probably find a considerable degree of crossover between "people coming home for Xmas" and "people with a high number of interactions with people".

Exactly. That aspect seems to be overlooked by many of the wider population though, and people miss that travel itself can certainly be facilitated if counterbalanced by interactions elsewhere.

caveat emptor

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Exactly. That aspect seems to be overlooked by many of the wider population though, and people miss that travel itself can certainly be facilitated if counterbalanced by interactions elsewhere.

So like a lockdown in the new year? Is that enough to counterbalance it? Making over 100 thousand people unemployed and making people stay 5 km from their house but anyone can come in from an international destination or indeed travel to that location and return no bother.


Clear as mud.

GazzaL

caveat emptor wrote: »

So like a lockdown in the new year? Is that enough to counterbalance it? Making over 100 thousand people unemployed and making people stay 5 km from their house but anyone can come in from an international destination or indeed travel to that location and return no bother.


Clear as mud.

Go away for a holiday and you can go wherever you like when you come back.

wadacrack

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Hello. I see this misreading of risk and travel happening frequently, and mean to write a fuller explanation on it to facilitate a more correct understanding.

But briefly, travel in itself has very little indeed to do with transmission of the virus. People irrationally overestimate the risk of the 'outsider'. The key element is the number of interactions of people. Certainly, reducing international travel reduces interactions. But so too does closing cinemas, shoe shops, or gyms.

I shall come back to this point, and shall include it in the 'Key Points' posting I mean to put together to close off many of the recurring issues raised and, in many cases, poorly or erroneously answered.

You are under estimating the risk of travel. It leads to new chains of transmission and is ultimately countries like Taiwan and New Zealand who had strict protocols in place are in a much better position than many countries. If we put in similar protocol's in place in June/July we would be in a far better position. China have been picking up loads of cases at their airports

SleetAndSnow

Contact traced at 7 on Sunday while the positive case was still on the phone, very fast. Test 11:30 Yesterday, result at 9:30 this morning so under 24 hours which I thought was very quick, same with 2 other members of my family. Interestingly two of us got a text from the HSE saying our test was negative while the other got it direct from our GP?? Found that strange!

Still waiting on one result, hoping its not a bad sign!

OwenM

wadacrack wrote: »

You are under estimating the risk of travel. It leads to new chains of transmission and is ultimately countries like Taiwan and New Zealand who had strict protocols in place are in a much better position than many countries. If we put in similar protocol's in place in June/July we would be in a far better position. China have been picking up loads of cases at their airports

Everything except cowering in your home leads to new chains, you can't ask people to do this forever when the finish line is receding all the time.

Cluedo Monopoly

wadacrack wrote: »

You are under estimating the risk of travel. It leads to new chains of transmission and is ultimately countries like Taiwan and New Zealand who had strict protocols in place are in a much better position than many countries. If we put in similar protocol's in place in June/July we would be in a far better position. China have been picking up loads of cases at their airports

Yes and NZ is facing an economic depression in the years ahead.

Paddygreen

Eod100 wrote: »

Guess also if immunity diminishes over time might not be as effective after 3 months or 6 say. Assuming the risk of reinfection is low but this could also be an issue to less extent.

Some experts recommend we will have to get our shots every six months or so, so we can update our health passports so in turn we will be allowed do things, like socially distanced socialising for example. Masks, , working from home (if you still have a job) and social distancing will be permanent going forward of course, just in case, fingers crossed and a prayer to St Anthony (the patron saint of lost causes) before we light a candles in the window (preferably not real candles, just in case).. we have to do what we are told to stay safe guys.

is_that_so

wadacrack wrote: »

You are under estimating the risk of travel. It leads to new chains of transmission and is ultimately countries like Taiwan and New Zealand who had strict protocols in place are in a much better position than many countries. If we put in similar protocol's in place in June/July we would be in a far better position. China have been picking up loads of cases at their airports

It only creates the potential of new chains of transmission. As we've seen here it's the subsequent behaviour that does the damage. We couldn't unilaterally lock down our border, a matter of being in the EU.

caveat emptor

Wow, the jobless /unemployment figures are crazy.

From the guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/nov/03/coronavirus-live-news-france-sees-record-new-cases-who-warns-its-not-too-late-to-take-critical-action

SortingYouOut

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

Yes and NZ is facing an economic depression in the years ahead.

Well they'll have plenty of company, us included. The only thing that's good for a global depression is a world war.

owlbethere

That video posted this morning from Caveat Emptor from protestors gathering in a large crowd on the luas

The protestors like to prance around protesting about the lockdown pretending to care about other people shouting about peoples businesses locked down and peoples mental health. I saw pretending to care because the video shows just that.

Many people would have used the luas for genuine reasons to get from A to B around Dublin, perhaps to attend to hospital appointments, or go to work. I know many places are closed in lockdown bu there is still a lot of work going on and many places have online shopping and that will require some people to staff and package orders.

The protestors have put many people in jeopardy by carrying their protest into an inclosed environment. The very people they like to claim to represent.

Kermit.de.frog

I'd imagine every day is a bank holiday for those "protestors". A lockdown has minimal, if no, impact on them.

Paddygreen

Paddygreen wrote: »

Some experts recommend we will have to get our shots every six months or so, so we can update our health passports so in turn we will be allowed do things, like socially distanced socialising for example. Masks, , working from home (if you still have a job) and social distancing will be permanent going forward of course, just in case, fingers crossed and a prayer to St Anthony (the patron saint of lost causes) before we light a candles in the window (preferably not real candles, just in case).. we have to do what we are told to stay safe guys.

St Jude is the lost causes dept. (and hopeless cases too I think)

St. Anthony helps you locate something you have lost. He is my go-to man when that happens me.

St. Margaret is also the champion of the lowest wrung in societies ladder.

Thankfully I have not had the need to pray to St Jude or St Margaret, yet!

KrustyUCC

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd imagine every day is a bank holiday for those "protestors". A lockdown has minimal, if no, impact on them.

True

Funsterdelux

Paddygreen wrote: »

Some experts recommend we will have to get our shots every six months or so, so we can update our health passports so in turn we will be allowed do things, like socially distanced socialising for example. Masks, , working from home (if you still have a job) and social distancing will be permanent going forward of course, just in case, fingers crossed and a prayer to St Anthony (the patron saint of lost causes) before we light a candles in the window (preferably not real candles, just in case).. we have to do what we are told to stay safe guys.

Deleted User wrote: »

St Jude is the lost causes dept. (and hopeless cases too I think)

St. Anthony helps you locate something you have lost. He is my go-to man when that happens me.

St. Margaret is also the champion of the lowest wrung in societies ladder.

Thankfully I have not had the need to pray to St Jude or St Margaret, yet!

There you are Paddy, the source of all your woes, you've been praying to the wrong Saint for all those years!

ACitizenErased

ICU down to 42 - 4 discharges and 2 admissions

KrustyUCC

That's good news

you would have to wonder about how the world will be in about a year. New Zealand, Taiwan and parts of Eastern Canada will be like hermit states. The people from these places will not have had any exposure to covid19 so their immunity to the virus will be very low.

As for the rest of the world, we could be facing wave after wave of this thing, particularly if it mutates and becomes immune to vaccines.

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1323627051618807808

100 more in hospital with Covid in the North compared to South. They are probably missing lots of cases with their testing given that we have had similar numbers

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

you would have to wonder about how the world will be in about a year. New Zealand, Taiwan and parts of Eastern Canada will be like hermit states. The people from these places will not have had any exposure to covid19 so their immunity to the virus will be very low.

If they keep.up what they're at then their countries will be covid free so they won't have to worry about it.

Deleted User wrote:

As for the rest of the world, we could be facing wave after wave of this thing, particularly if it mutates and becomes immune to vaccines.

I'm pretty confident that all the scientists and other medical experts working on this will find a vaccine.It may be one you need every six or twelve months but it'll be found.
Also if nothing works I'm quite confident every country will follow the path of the countries you mentioned and eventually achieve covid free status.

seamus

Deleted User wrote: »

As for the rest of the world, we could be facing wave after wave of this thing, particularly if it mutates and becomes immune to vaccines.

There's a good chance we will face another couple of waves of this thing.

Virus epidemics tend to have a shelf-life of around two years (+/-) anyway unless they become endemic illnesses that continuously evolve like influenza.

"Immune to vaccines" isn't very likely. Like influenza, once we prove the efficiacy of a coronavirus vaccine, tweaking it to suit a new strain is a lot simpler and doesn't require massive long testing processes.

OwenM

seamus wrote: »

There's a good chance we will face another couple of waves of this thing.

Virus epidemics tend to have a shelf-life of around two years (+/-) anyway unless they become endemic illnesses that continuously evolve like influenza.

"Immune to vaccines" isn't very likely. Like influenza, once we prove the efficiacy of a coronavirus vaccine, tweaking it to suit a new strain is a lot simpler and doesn't require massive long testing processes.

Any of the reading I've done suggests mutations aren't of concern with this virus, don't fully understand this, I have read however that the WHO state it is endemic.

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

Any of the reading I've done suggests mutations aren't of concern with this virus, don't fully understand this, I have read however that the WHO state it is endemic.

I wonder how long it will take our immune system to evolve to be able to fight this virus, like we do with the flu.

I have heard that if we take vitamin C, vitamin D and Zinc regularly we will stand a better chance, same as the flu really (bar the zinc)

blowitupref

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/vincekearney/status/1323627051618807808

100 more in hospital with Covid in the North compared to South. They are probably missing lots of cases with their testing given that we have had similar numbers

Loads of cases missed in the NI, was a simliar situation in March, April in the ROI.

mloc123

blowitupref wrote: »

Loads of cases missed in the NI, was a simliar situation in March, April in the ROI.

I guess their positivity rate is now *only* 21%... improved slightly

stephenjmcd

391 positive swabs from 10,494.

3.73% positivity

seamus

10,494 tests. 391 Positive. 3.73% positivity. 7-day rate down to 4.74%

Waiting for Swabs

JDD

Well, had our first household Covid test today. The 3 year old has to go under a GA to get his two front teeth out on Thursday, and therefore had to have a covid test before being admitted for the surgery.

It wasn't the worst in the world - he's a grumpy f**ker at the best of times and certainly does not like dentists or doctors, so kicked up a big fuss the minute he got in the room for the test. So it was hard to know how uncomfortable the test was for him, or whether he was roaring for the very indignity of having a swab put in his mouth. Still, the swab was done in less than a second and he was grand about a minute later (once he got some crisps).

What I was confused about was that the creche won't let him come back until he gets the result of the covid test back. He has no symptoms, and is not being tested because he is a close contact. He simply got the test because that is a pre-requisite before having the surgery on Thursday. He wouldn't have had the test at all if it hadn't been because he had to have the dental surgery done. I rang the creche head office and they said they were a misunderstanding and he could go back tomorrow.

OwenM

OwenM wrote: »

Any of the reading I've done suggests mutations aren't of concern with this virus, don't fully understand this, I have read however that the WHO state it is endemic.

The mutation rate of the virus is quite low. Coronaviruses have a "proofreading" mechanism that reduces errors in the copying process. The virus has a rate about half that of Influenza and a quarter of that of HIV. It's quite stable

manofwisdom

seamus wrote: »

10,494 tests. 391 Positive. 3.73% positivity. 7-day rate down to 4.74%

Be nice to get a reported case number this evening close to that swab count than have 200 or 300 backlog cases added in.

Lowest 7 day positivity rate for 3 and a half weeks.

is_that_so

seamus wrote: »

10,494 tests. 391 Positive. 3.73% positivity. 7-day rate down to 4.74%

So now "under control" below 5%!

wadacrack

Amazing WHO have not declared the virus airborne. Ventilation in risky settings could help significantly mitigate the risks of transmission

https://twitter.com/covidisairborne/status/1323341763453587459

ACitizenErased

Looking at less than 400 so as long as they don't pull some swabs out of their back sides.

Non solum non ambulabit

is_that_so wrote: »

So now "under control" below 5%!

Until we add in the additional 400 cases later

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Looking at less than 400 so as long as they don't pull some swabs out of their back sides.

Last 21 day Swabs vs last 20 days Cases announced:
18621 vs 18760
That 139 more cases than swabs, I know there's been some cases denotified in the past 21 days, but hard to see where they are finding these extra cases.

I know some may be private testing, would be nice to know how many are and if the number of tests conducted by private operators is notified also, otherwise the positivity rate would be artificially high.

7 day average swab number below 600. In spring swabs fell from below 600 to below 100 in 4 weeks. Positive swabs falling just as fast now as then

Marty Bird

stephenjmcd wrote: »

391 positive swabs from 10,494.

3.73% positivity

1277 cases to be announced so :rolleyes:

Wolf359f

[Deleted User] wrote: »

7 day average swab number below 600. In spring swabs fell from below 600 to below 100 in 4 weeks. Positive swabs falling just as fast now as then

What's interesting is, back early in the year the positivity rate was nearly 4x the current peaks rate and we all agree many multiples of cases where missed back in March/April.
Many countries in Europe are reporting as high a positivity rate as we had first wave, meaning they have to be missing just as many cases second time around, but this time around they are reporting over 4x the case numbers, I fear it's going to be a grim winter for many European countries.

Rob A. Bank

Another blow to the GAA plan for the Football Championship...

Seven positive Covid-19 cases in the Sligo football panel and more players being tested.

iamwhoiam

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Another blow to the GAA plan for the Football Championship...

Seven positive Covid-19 cases in the Sligo football panel and more players being tested.

I genuinely don’t understand why they are allowed play . 15 sweaty hands touching the same ball and then going home to their families spreading it about

is_that_so

UK pilot in Liverpool with rapid tests.

The pilot will start this week and will include a mix of existing swab tests and new lateral flow tests, which can provide a result within an hour without the need to use a lab.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54786130

El Weirdo

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Another blow to the GAA plan for the Football Championship...

Seven positive Covid-19 cases in the Sligo football panel and more players being tested.

Speaking as a Sligo man, having them not being able to field a team in the championship is far from a blow.

eagle eye

Sweden, who many claimed had the right approach to dealing with the virus, have 10,177 new cases and 31 deaths since Friday.