Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

MelbourneMan

blowitupref wrote: »

This time last week there was 349 in hospital.

I would still be concerned, about Dublin in particular. It it is important that a general sense that numbers are falling does not mean we can lower our guard. I urge all to maintain maximum diligence in following the guidelines. Any early relaxation will only delay the move back to Level 3 that is our hope and goal.

spookwoman

3 Deaths in Critical care
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-20-00-2-november-2020.pdf

hmmm

Sounds desperate in Belgium
https://amp.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750

mandrake04

El Sueño wrote: »

I think they need to stop publishing the swab numbers, just announce the cases and leave it at that, it's very frustrating to see less than 400 swabs and then nearly 800 cases announced when there didn't appear to be much of a backlog

I agree this is all laughable, thinking about it and knowing how Molecular/Micro testing and Lab workflow works there is no real correlation between positive swabs and positive cases in a real time sense. You have to take into account batch runs and re-tests especially when samples are pooled, POC and Private testing that's outside the labware capability and then results have to compared with existing cases and determine if they are a new case or a query on an existing case. Positive results can not be truly released within that time frame, there's just too many factors... it doesn't work like everyone thinks.

This is just BS by armchair analysts and has the chromosomally challenged foaming at the mouth about backlogs, where is the HSE stats on backlogs? unless the HSE are saying there x results backlogged for what ever reason then there is no backlogs, the results of positive cases are what they are... just accept it.

The Guard

Hospitals have been stable at the 300-340 mark for 7 or so days, just need to see discharges like today a bit more often now.
Rip to the 3 people who died in Critical care..

Throwing this question out there. Back in the first wave, people who were seriously ill with or because of COVID, some or not the majority were not brought into icu and ventilated.. would I be correct in saying that we are doing that now hence the more frequent deaths in icu?

Polar101

Arghus wrote: »

I'm still amazed that in all these press conferences not one journalist has ever asked about the discrepancy between swabs and reported cases. Not one question ever.

I haven't seen the swabs reported in the media, maybe it's just the people in here who actually look at that those numbers?

Stheno

hmmm wrote: »

Sounds desperate in Belgium
https://amp.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750

Jesus. Thats as bad or worse than Lombardy earlier this year.

God love them

Stheno

The Guard wrote: »

Hospitals have been stable at the 300-340 mark for 7 or so days, just need to see discharges like today a bit more often now.
Rip to the 3 people who died in Critical care..

Throwing this question out there. Back in the first wave, people who were seriously ill with or because of COVID, some or not the majority were not brought into icu and ventilated.. would I be correct in saying that we are doing that now hence the more frequent deaths in icu?

Deaths in the spring something like 63% were residents of nursing homes, many of whom may not have met the criteria to go into ICU or may have had DNRs in place

Think NHS now account for less than 40% of deaths so that's a factor possibly

Our survival rate in ICU last spring was about 60% the HSE said its now 80%

You'd probably have to compare the numbers then and now in terms of deaths to tease it out further

Thierry12

Stheno wrote: »

Jesus. Thats as bad or worse than Lombardy earlier this year.

God love them

Fair stupidity though

Takes a long long time for Covid to go unchecked to get to that level

bb1234567

hmmm wrote: »

Sounds desperate in Belgium
https://amp.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750

Case growth has started to slow down slightly in Belgium which is some positive news though
https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/138816/belgiums-rapid-rise-in-covid-19-infections-begins-to-slow-down-sciensano-steven-van-gucht-brussels-flemish-walloon-brabant-hospital-admissions-icu-deaths-safe-zone/

ICU admissions will continue to grow until Mid November when it looks like national capacity will be exceeded but will be clearer trend in the morning after weekend lull

MrMusician18

I'm not sure if it's been mentioned in thread yet but RTE has reported that the lady that featured in their "letters from lockdown" about looking forward to holding her new grandson has died. I have to say I found that particular tv short very moving...

Arghus

I've been reticent enough to get too excited by the seeming good - or at least better news - about cases, based on the question marks about the reliability of contact tracing and the at times relatively lower amounts of daily testing, but falling hospital numbers does auger well for the moment at least

wes

hmmm wrote: »

Sounds desperate in Belgium
https://amp.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750

My manager is in Belgium and I honestly couldn't believe the figures she was telling. I taught she must have made a mistake. Things are very bad there.

Stheno

Thierry12 wrote: »

Fair stupidity though

Takes a long long time for Covid to go unchecked to get to that level

I wouldn't go so far as to call it stupid, but they did live what to us with our ongoing restrictions was a very normal life compared to us for the last few months (I'm in Dublin)

Still can't help but feel enormous sympathy for countries like Belgium and other badly affected European States.

I work on a global team, on calls with European colleagues the past couple of weeks its been grim the amount of them who have family affected tbh

auspicious

Thierry12 wrote: »

Fair stupidity though

Takes a long long time for Covid to go unchecked to get to that level

That's unfair.
Belgium has a central position within Europe and is a major logistics hub. There is a large amount of travel in and out of the region.
Extending your logic I could say Europe failing to follow China's approach to the outbreak was fair stupidity.

Widdensushi

hmmm wrote: »

Sounds desperate in Belgium
https://amp.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750

Terrible, the introduction is cringey, 'from the hottest of hotspots', it's terrible that it has got to that stage, Ireland really doing well overall, hopefully numbers will continue to stay manageable, it will be the longest winter.

Thierry12

auspicious wrote: »

That's unfair.
Belgium has a central position within Europe and is a major logistics hub. There is a large amount of travel in and out of the region.
Extending your logic I could say Europe failing to follow China's approach to the outbreak was fair stupidity.

You'd be right

China has made the West look like a pack of fools, absolute idiots in comparison, that cant be argued

Its not unfair btw

We had no sympathy for Trumps US, Belgium went and did the same thing, unlike US the Belgians have Ze Germans next door with 4000 ICU beds they can use

It would.have to get real bad for the Germans to fill up those 6000 ICU beds

bb1234567

Yeh but even with things like central location and higher density to their disadvantage, based on our own experiences in Dublin of case growth when society was most relaxed during late summer I think demonstrates what must have been complete neglect of the potentially serious situation on the continent. COVID really isn't that big of a problem until it is at unchecked exponential growth stage, and it's really not all that difficult to put road blocks in place to prevent it excalating to that point.They must have ignored seriously deteriorating stats to let it get that far. Ireland will have minimal excess deaths 2020, Belgium's will probably be 50% higher than last year's by January

mandrake04

Thierry12 wrote: »

Fair stupidity though

Takes a long long time for Covid to go unchecked to get to that level

Trying to learn to live with it, learning their lesson

23/9/20 Masks will no longer be required outdoors, except for at locations that are so crowded that social distancing is not possible, Belgian Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès announced at a National Security Council meeting. The period of time people will be required to quarantine if they are potentially exposed to the virus or have tested positive will be reduced from two weeks to one, starting October 1

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-coronavirus-measures-rising-infection-rate/

23/9/20 She said Belgians will need to learn to live with the virus but warned against a "widespread slackening" of basic social-distancing rules. "We are a risk management phase," Wilmes said, adding that people who have had contact with an infected person would only have to quarantine for seven days.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-belgium-to-scrap-face-mask-rules/a-55033830

auspicious

Thierry12 wrote: »

You'd be right

China has made the West look like a pack of fools, absolute idiots in comparison, that cant be argued

Its not unfair btw

We had no sympathy for Trumps US, Belgium went and did the same thing, unlike US the Belgians have Ze Germans next door with 4000 ICU beds they can use

It would.have to get real bad for the Germans to fill up those 6000 ICU beds

Unfair but you're not wrong. It is a terrible balancing act.
China had the recent experience of SARS outbreak and hence recognised the immediate risk posed to soceity and the economy.
We can reckon in future any potential global spanning outbreak , with our newfound education, we will ( should ) sure as hell lockdown early to avoid the deaths and general upheaval that a lax approach entails.

Goldengirl

Thierry12 wrote: »

You'd be right

China has made the West look like a pack of fools, absolute idiots in comparison, that cant be argued

Its not unfair btw

We had no sympathy for Trumps US, Belgium went and did the same thing, unlike US the Belgians have Ze Germans next door with 4000 ICU beds they can use

It would.have to get real bad for the Germans to fill up those 6000 ICU beds

Is it 4000 or 6000 ?

You are being unfair .

If we had not restricted when we did ( which I remember you thought was totally unnecessary, btw ) we would be looking at that scenario now .

Arghus

Polar101 wrote: »

I haven't seen the swabs reported in the media, maybe it's just the people in here who actually look at that those numbers?

It probably is to be honest. I genuinely suspect the reason no jouno ever asks is because they don't even know about it. But I find it hard to believe that nobody in the press pack is looking at that data, if people on boards are then surely someone in a newsroom somewhere is too.

Like I said earlier I don't believe it's a conspiracy, it looks like some sort of administrative quirk. But no-one knows for sure - it would be great if it could actually be explained and we were given greater insight into how the daily totals are arrived at.

The figures are announced each day and the narrative is kind of shaped by whether they are good or bad and we know they often aren't the exact figures for that 24 period. That discrepancy has never been adequately explained and it's never even talked about. I find that odd.

Goldengirl

Arghus wrote: »

It probably is to be honest. I genuinely suspect the reason no jouno ever asks is because they don't even know about it. But I find it hard to believe that nobody in the press pack is looking at that data, if people on boards are then surely someone in a newsroom somewhere is too.

Like I said earlier I don't believe it's a conspiracy, it looks like some sort of administrative quirk. But no-one knows for sure - it would be great if it could actually be explained and we were given greater insight into how the daily totals are arrived at.

The figures are announced each day and the narrative is kind of shaped by whether they are good or bad and we know they often aren't the exact figures for that 24 period. That discrepancy has never been adequately explained and it's never even talked about. I find that odd.

Mandrake 04 has pretty much explained it well a few posts back and it has been discussed before. No offence Arghus.
I think the fact that numbers are lower one day and higher another is just down to confirmation of cases and ruling out the tests of hospital staff and other work related testing .
I just go on the average over a few days or even the week which is what has been said before .

Arghus

Goldengirl wrote: »

Mandrake 04 has pretty much explained it well a few posts back and it has been discussed before. No offence Arghus.
I think the fact that numbers are lower one day and higher another is just down to confirmation of cases and ruling out the tests of hospital staff and other work related testing .
I just go on the average over a few days or even the week which is what has been said before .

I see that explanation now. Seems fair enough, but it can be hard for lay people such as myself to make sense of it at times and then, it being Boards, you can become swayed by people banging on about it all the time where you can begin to wonder what's the deal with it and is actually as big a deal as people say. People who are just guessing and speculating come in to fill the void of information. Even if it is totally explainable I'd like to hear something about one of the days in the press briefings. You can appreciate people's curiosity.

Thanks to mandrake 04 for his insight.

caveat emptor

pjohnson wrote: »

Jaysus just saw the latest anti restrictions movement on the luas.

Ridiculous the guards arent allowed stop them.

Particular kind of stupid.

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1323308792193470464?s=20

caveat emptor

caveat emptor wrote: »

Particular kind of stupid.

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1323308792193470464?s=20

What a gang of absolute pricks

Funsterdelux

caveat emptor wrote: »

Particular kind of stupid.

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1323308792193470464?s=20

Good to see Giovanni Trapattoni back in Dublin

Wanderer78

caveat emptor wrote:

Particular kind of stupid.

Maybe covid is a good thing, maybe we do need a cul!

Solli

hmmm wrote: »

Sounds desperate in Belgium
https://amp.dw.com/en/belgiums-covid-19-health-care-collapse-it-will-happen-in-10-days/a-55451750

Their PM Sophie Wilkes is just out of ICU after contracting the virus. She spent 6 days there. She’s 45 years old

Wanderer78

Solli wrote:

Their PM Sophie Wilkes is just out of ICU after contracting the virus. She spent 6 days there. She’s 45 years old

Disturbing to hear they're running out of staff, and have been forced to bring back in staff, not fully recovered from covid

amadangomor

Deleted User wrote: »

What a gang of absolute pricks

Hardly a braincell between them I'd say.

SortingYouOut

amadangomor wrote: »

Hardly a braincell between them I'd say.

You can tell from looking at them that they were unemployed well before Covid. If we were being told not to wear masks, they'd be about chanting for their use. They just want to cause disturbance and crave a sense of meaning in their empty, lonely lives.

SeaBreezes

caveat emptor wrote: »

Particular kind of stupid.

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1323308792193470464?s=20

Theres no cure for stupid, unfortunately.

mandrake04

I seen there was some chat over the weekend on Ct values.

I was chatting to an ex-colleague who works over in the UK and asking him about the platform he works on and he said that Ct of 35 is deemed as fully recovered in a high risk setting. Anything above 35 and its dismissed as negative.

This was similar to my opinion of Ct 34 Here

He sent me a link from Welsh Health which is accessible on the net so free to post https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2020-08/technical-advisory-group-consensus-statement-on-recommended-testing-criteria-for-discharge-of-asymptomatic-patients-to-care-homes.pdf

He said that the average Ct for someone in hospital was around 27, but once they hit 32 they were good to go home as deemed recovered. He sent me some other documents which were really interesting, although they are a bit sensitive and I wont post them here as its a bit close to home.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

What a gang of absolute pricks

They are and they know they are but confrontations are never wise and can go very badly. Not giving them oxygen is the best way forward.

harr

Will we see a spike late next week with schools being back and the amount of gatherings over the Halloween weekend.

pjohnson

caveat emptor wrote: »

Particular kind of stupid.

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1323308792193470464?s=20

And people were asking why there was no "proper legal challenge". When THAT is the standard of the anti-restrictors is it any wonder.

wadacrack

https://twitter.com/pathogenomenick/status/1323387932225449991

Thierry12

Goldengirl wrote: »

Is it 4000 or 6000 ?

You are being unfair .

If we had not restricted when we did ( which I remember you thought was totally unnecessary, btw ) we would be looking at that scenario now .

4000 free

6000 total

Level 5 was unnecessary

Widdensushi

harr wrote: »

Will we see a spike late next week with schools being back and the amount of gatherings over the Halloween weekend.

I don't know of any Halloween activity in my area, where did you see this?

is_that_so

Goldengirl wrote: »

Is it 4000 or 6000 ?

You are being unfair .

If we had not restricted when we did ( which I remember you thought was totally unnecessary, btw ) we would be looking at that scenario now .

Given that we are nowhere near a disaster in hospitals people are fully entitled to question how we came up with the predicted numbers to justify Level 5. Level 3 was not allowed to complete a cycle, yet our current decline in numbers is courtesy of Level 3 measures.

OwenM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Is it 4000 or 6000 ?

You are being unfair .

If we had not restricted when we did ( which I remember you thought was totally unnecessary, btw ) we would be looking at that scenario now .

We had a fraction of their incidence and they still don’t have anything like an Irish level 5 in place, 4 people allowed to visit a house, weddings with 40 people, they had 19k cases on the day we went to level 5 with twice our population, we had 1,300.

mandrake04

Thierry12 wrote: »

Level 5 was unnecessary

That's probably true with 20/20 Hindsight. Calling it is heck of a gamble, there's still 500-600 cases per day and 4 weeks to get that below 100... even with L5 not out of the woods yet.

quokula

I fail to understand how people can have such a limited understanding of simple logic and cause and effect that they see COVID ravaging other countries with fewer restrictions, and see that Ireland isn’t suffering as much with more restrictions, and come to the conclusion that Ireland didn’t need restrictions because it’s number of cases is lower, apparently for some other unidentified reason.

bennyl10

Thierry12 wrote: »

4000 free

6000 total

Level 5 was unnecessary

how can someone look the the number everywhere, not see them happening here (thankfully) and not think L5 was necessary.
Even as a precaution!

wadacrack

Great article

https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/1323320169444347906

is_that_so

quokula wrote: »

I fail to understand how people can have such a limited understanding of simple logic and cause and effect that they see COVID ravaging other countries with fewer restrictions, and see that Ireland isn’t suffering as much with more restrictions, and come to the conclusion that Ireland didn’t need restrictions because it’s number of cases is lower, apparently for some other unidentified reason.

I'd avoid the limited understanding dig given you claim to have or choose to have limited understanding yourself here.

harr

Widdensushi wrote: »

I don't know of any Halloween activity in my area, where did you see this?

No organised events in my area and and most decent people stuck to guidelines and it’s the first year ever we had no kids calling.
What I am talking about is the hundreds of youths who gathered for bonfires and fireworks.
A larger midlands town near me nearly had to draft in all available guards in Laois to disperse a huge amount of troublemakers.
Guards in nearest town to me had to break up a house party with nearly 100 teenagers at it and came under a hail of bottles when they got to house. The same scenario was played out in many parts of other city’s around the country.

is_that_so

bennyl10 wrote: »

how can someone look the the number everywhere, not see them happening here (thankfully) and not think L5 was necessary.
Even as a precaution!

Have you a time limit on this or will we just stick with it indefinitely as a precaution? We need other tools for this, none of which seem to be forthcoming from those who make such decisions. We also need far better predictions from them.