Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

ACitizenErased

Turtwig wrote: »

It's generally very well established that during a crisis you have one expert, whomever that may be, that becomes the public face to that crisis. Too many cooks...
Message needs to be clear, concise and as consistent as reasonably possible. Having everyone and their mother voice their opinions on public broadcasts leads to more confusion and less effective actions by the public.

You have a scientist, yes. Dr Fauci in the US, Dr. Van Tam in the UK.
Not the CMO. Witty in the UK isn't even rolled out some days.

Peter Flynt

seamus wrote: »

None of that supports your conspiracy theory. The fact that some countries are having issues in schools and some countries are choosing to close them, does not logically require that our schools are the same.

No experts in other countries have done a study on schools in the Republic of Ireland and come to the conclusion that they are spreading the virus.

The problem with clinging onto this belief that schools are a problem is that you have prop it up with a whole framework of conspiracies and assumptions..

I'll trust the studies, experts and research done in other countries and not a bunch of paddies lying their arses off in NPHET. . . thanks very much.

seamus

Peter Flynt wrote: »

I'll trust the studies, experts and research done in other countries and not a bunch of paddies lying their arses off in NPHET. . . thanks very much.

Confirmation bias it is.

Keep your fingers in your ears, Peter, that'll work.

If you think the Irish are so incompetent, you know where you can go.

MOR316

Allinall wrote: »

When did Holohan say that? Any link?

Paraphrasing.

He said that the correct action would be for Harris to announce that he had asked Tony Holohan to do the report instead of an outsider, no need for that as the public wouldn't like that and that there was no evidence it wasn't up to standard.

It's in the email/letter that was published at the time

Westernworld.

eagle eye wrote: »

We have plateaued, there's something out there preventing us getting to where we were in July.
We need to figure out we can change to get there. One if the major differences is schools being open.

We already know

Bottom line is we want schools and business operational

Dampen down the virus elsewhere while we await vaccines

Turtwig

AltGrp0 wrote: »

Covid vaccine trials specifically exclude everyone with serious underlying health conditions.
95% of covid deaths have at least one of these conditions. How the hell can they be declared safe for use?

That is what you do.
Generally it's :
Phase 1 small very healthy prescreened population to see if drug safe.
Phase 2 healthy population mixed with placebos to see if drug works
Phase 3 target population of drugs. Still prescreened to avoid severe illness but targeted to provide a reasonable indication of drugs effectiveness in the population most likely to use the drug.

You're not going to test any drug or vaccine on someone in ICU recovering from a car crash. Why on earth would you do similar for severe illness???

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We actually haven't plateaued. Cases notified have, cases by epi date haven't.

I'd normally be cautious reading that, mainly, if testing isn't up to scratch you would be getting big differences between the 2 lines. (As seen clearly in the peaks, where testing was struggling). But as cases reduce, you would expect testing to then catch up. One would assume the epi date excludes denotifications, as there has been quite alot this month so far.
But going by epidate, there's nothing to suggest a levelling off at all. It's strange, I'd have expected to see that by now, unless testing and tracing is still struggling.

Stateofyou

seamus wrote: »

None of that supports your conspiracy theory. The fact that some countries are having issues in schools and some countries are choosing to close them, does not logically require that our schools are the same.

No experts in other countries have done a study on schools in the Republic of Ireland and come to the conclusion that they are spreading the virus.

The problem with clinging onto this belief that schools are a problem is that you have prop it up with a whole framework of conspiracies and assumptions.

If schools are a major spreader, but cases are going down, then the only logical conclusion is that cases derived from schools are not being reported.

If cases are not being reported, then one of the following must be true;

- GPs have been told to stop sending school children for tests, or to not report cases in school children
- Contact tracers have been told to not do contact tracing on confirmed cases in school children

Since either of these activities would result in the data popping up elsewhere (high GP referrals, high GP contacts, high swab numbers), you also need teams elsewhere to catch and hide this data to ensure that everything looks above board. Not to mention the fact that we would have hundreds of GP sounding the alarm about it.

So you can see that in order to support your original assertion that schools are a major problem area being covered up, you've had to construct a whole house of cards consisting of sub-conspiracies.

When the conclusion which requires no conspiracies and no assumptions, is that schools are not a major source of transmission.

I think you've forgotten the fact that what defines a close contact has changed and is very different in the school sector unlike anywhere else. This is deliberate.

MOR316

seamus wrote: »

None of that supports your conspiracy theory. The fact that some countries are having issues in schools and some countries are choosing to close them, does not logically require that our schools are the same.

Just to interject on this point...

That's like saying "Well, some other countries are wearing masks but, that doesn't mean we should logically be required to do the same" which is pretty much what NPHET said back some months ago so...I don't trust them at all, especially Holohan and that's based off his previous.

For the record, I don't care anymore. I don't have the energy.
Just playing Devil's Advocate for the sake of it really. Sorry

ACitizenErased

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'd normally be cautious reading that, mainly, if testing isn't up to scratch you would be getting big differences between the 2 lines. (As seen clearly in the peaks, where testing was struggling). But as cases reduce, you would expect testing to then catch up. One would assume the epi date excludes denotifications, as there has been quite alot this month so far.
But going by epidate, there's nothing to suggest a levelling off at all. It's strange, I'd have expected to see that by now, unless testing and tracing is still struggling.

The barely noticeable increase in positivity rate suggests that testing and tracing isn't struggling though

Peter Flynt

seamus wrote: »

Confirmation bias it is.

Keep your fingers in your ears, Peter, that'll work.

If you think the Irish are so incompetent, you know where you can go.

Not incompetent, just corrupt and few do corruption as well as Official Ireland.
It's in their DNA.

Turtwig

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You have a scientist, yes. Dr Fauci in the US, Dr. Van Tam in the UK.
Not the CMO. Witty in the UK isn't even rolled out some days.

All of whom are in countries that have seriously fcked up on the communication front. (Well all fronts really.)

It's such a basic principle of crisis management. Incidentally, it was the US who principally wrote the book on it and then their current administraton took a major dump on it.

ACitizenErased

Turtwig wrote: »

All of whom are in countries that have seriously fcked up on the communication front. (Well all fronts really.)

It's such a basic principle of crisis management. Incidentally, it was the US who principally wrote the book on it and then their current administraton took a major dump on it.

The UK has been top of the game with regards to the public awareness of vaccines. I recommend you watch it.
We should be hearing from the (only, ironically) epidemiologist on NPHET, Cillian De Gascun at ALL of the briefings.

MOR316

Turtwig wrote: »

All of whom are in countries that have seriously fcked up on the communication front. (Well all fronts really.)

It's such a basic principle of crisis management. Incidentally, it was the US who principally wrote the book on it and then their current administraton took a major dump on it.

Heh heh

Major Trump more like

heh heh

AdamD

ACitizenErased wrote: »

You have a scientist, yes. Dr Fauci in the US, Dr. Van Tam in the UK.
Not the CMO. Witty in the UK isn't even rolled out some days.

Does it really matter which one it is..? CMO makes more sense if anything

ACitizenErased

AdamD wrote: »

Does it really matter which one it is..? CMO makes more sense if anything

There should be an epidemiologist present at all the briefings. It's a virus ffs.

MOR316

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The UK has been top of the game with regards to the public awareness of vaccines. I recommend you watch it.
We should be hearing from the (only, ironically) epidemiologist on NPHET, Cillian De Gascun at ALL of the briefings.

Depends though...

He might ruin the lighting for Tony's close up

funnydoggy

It's like having a mechanic warning us about road accidents.

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The barely noticeable increase in positivity rate suggests that testing and tracing isn't struggling though

I'm convinced Nolan said yesterday the positivity rate in the community (non hospital) was 8% and increasing.
But there was ~8000 non hospital tests done yesterday (or the day before) 8% would be 640.
Maybe he meant the positivity rate of close contacts.
Can't see how that would differ though over time, unless people are letting their guard down (not wearing masks).
Again, funeral and workplace outbreaks would skew that way high.

Turtwig

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The UK has been top of the game with regards to the public awareness of vaccines. I recommend you watch it.
We should be hearing from the (only, ironically) epidemiologist on NPHET, Cillian De Gascun at ALL of the briefings.

You want them to preach about a coming potential vaccine rather than the immediate hygiene, social distancing, reducing contacts etc???

I'm sorry but I find your mentioning, praise even, of vaccines PR absurd.

Side note: don't think the UK been all that great here either but not really relevant. Even if they were idyllic perfection it still doesn't offset the rest of their sh1t show.

eagle eye

ACitizenErased wrote:

HPSC, daily report. "14 day incidence rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population notified in Ireland by notification* and epidemiological date** to midnight 17/11/2020"

Our positivity rate on November 9th was 3.9% on November 16th it was 3.8%.
I haven't time right now to get the numbers for the last couple of days but I suspect it hasn't dropped.
I'm expecting on the 26th that it'll be somewhere between 3.7 and 4.0.

Hellrazer

Amirani wrote: »

Public health doctors should absolutely be giving public health messages. It happens in every country.

But then he needs to stick to health advice and not get involved with the public debate on outdoor drinking, heavier traffic in the mornings. His remit is to give medical advice - end of.

I don't have faith in politicians to properly relay public health advice. They can stick to deciding on regulations, not being doctors.

I dont have faith in this elected bunch giving any advice.

He proposed an internal review ahead of an external one (largely to maintain confidence in screening - which has significantly reduced cervical cancer deaths to date). That's not being "against a review". Regardless, it was decided that an external one would be done instead.

Some would argue that trying to have an "internal review" is covering up the truth.

You're correct, you do have a short memory (or possibly interpretation difficulties).

No real need for that now. I could say the same about your opinion.

Wolf359f

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The UK has been top of the game with regards to the public awareness of vaccines. I recommend you watch it.
We should be hearing from the (only, ironically) epidemiologist on NPHET, Cillian De Gascun at ALL of the briefings.

Pfizer CEO has stated they will be ready to ship vaccines within hours of approval.
Why do I think as soon as they start shipping, Ireland will be saying.... Hang on a few days, we need to sort out logistics first.
I'd have a little confidence if the HSE published their plan, assuming they have one!

ACitizenErased

eagle eye wrote: »

Our positivity rate on November 9th was 3.9% on November 16th it was 3.8%.
I haven't time right now to get the numbers for the last couple of days but I suspect it hasn't dropped.
I'm expecting on the 26th that it'll be somewhere between 3.7 and 4.0.

Positivity Rate yesterday: 2.6%
Positivity Rate the day before: 3%
Day before that: 3.6%


I'd love to know how it's going to reach a weekly average of 4 with positivity rate decreasing, but you're the mathematician I guess.

paw patrol

Turtwig wrote: »

That is what you do.
Generally it's :
Phase 1 small very healthy prescreened population to see if drug safe.
Phase 2 healthy population mixed with placebos to see if drug works
Phase 3 target population of drugs. Still prescreened to avoid severe illness but targeted to provide a reasonable indication of drugs effectiveness in the population most likely to use the drug.

You're not going to test any drug or vaccine on someone in ICU recovering from a car crash. Why on earth would you do similar for severe illness???

only one problem with this as it relates to covid
they have rushed the vaccines - for noble reasons but have skipped a large part of the animal trials and went straight into human trials.


one thing animal trials are really good for is - animals will have a shorter natural lifecycle than humans - so they will get an indication of the long term effects of the vaccine as in years down the line.


With human only trials they can only say what the effect is months down the line.



Like it or not , letting any of these vaccines out into the population is a form of guinea-pig -ism (did i create a new word?)



No HSE blurb, ciara kelly or even if they wheel out Bono - can gloss over that



https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7291183/

As various models for SARS-CoV-2 are under testing phase, biotech companies have bypassed animal studies and moved to Phase I clinical trials.

hmmm

paw patrol wrote: »

only one problem with this as it relates to covid
they have rushed the vaccines - for noble reasons but have skipped a large part of the animal trials and went straight into human trials.

No they haven't.

ACitizenErased

paw patrol wrote: »

only one problem with this as it relates to covid
they have rushed the vaccines - for noble reasons but have skipped a large part of the animal trials and went straight into human trials.


one thing animal trials are really good for is - animals will have a shorter natural lifecycle than humans - so they will get an indication of the long term effects of the vaccine as in years down the line.


With human only trials they can only say what the effect is months down the line.



Like it or not , letting any of these vaccines out into the population is a form of guinea-pig -ism (did i create a new word?)



No HSE blurb, ciara kelly or even if they wheel out Bono - can gloss over that



https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7291183/

You know they didn't skip animal trials? You can literally view the papers on the animal trials.

• Immunization of non-human primates (rhesus macaques) with BNT162b2, a nucleoside-modified messenger RNA (modRNA) candidate that expresses the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein, resulted in strong anti-viral effects against an infectious SARS-CoV-2 challenge

• BNT162b2 immunization prevented lung infection in 100% of the SARS-CoV-2 challenged rhesus macaques, with no viral RNA detected in the lower respiratory tract of immunized and challenged animals. The BNT162b2 vaccination also cleared the nose of detectable viral RNA in 100% of the SARS-CoV-2 challenged rhesus macaques within 3 days after the infection

• The BNT162b2 vaccine candidate induced SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in rhesus macaques, pseudovirus neutralizing antibodies in mice, and strong, antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in mice and macaques

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-data-preclinical-studies-mrna

ZX7R

Peter Flynt wrote: »

The Irish are claiming that schools are safer than general society as other countries are either closing schools, admitting that schools open contribute to R value by up to 0.3/0.4 or going online.

In Northern Ireland one school was identified with 48 students with the virus.

But we know different.

We're a corrupt country, that's why.

The evidence is there and is conclusive on schools.
It is been established by experts in other countries. . . and not spoofers like NPHET

Re closure of schools
In Poland 3rd class right up to university have been online nearly 6 weeks now.
Juniors to 2 classes 3 and a half weeks ,
Mandatory mask wearing indoor plus outdoor 6 weeks plus.
School opening were believed to be a major factor in the rising positive numbers.
Numbers peaked around 28000 they have now plateaued between 1900 and 24000.
The medical council tasked with covid 19 response, when questioned why numbers were not dropping, they simply replied that closure of schools have not met the projected figures
That were expected and when asked what was causing the numbers of covid they replied we don't know.

ACitizenErased

Some breaking news this afternoon: Pfizer have submitted for FDA approval

Amirani

MOR316 wrote: »

No, he didn't.

Harris wanted an external review, Holohan said, "No, don't do that! Go with my report! No one else needs to see what's happening, there's no evidence that it's not up to standard. It says so here in the report I done. Here pick mine"

Doing an "internal report" is the same thing as doing an "internal review".

The report/review hadn't been done when he suggested one be done instead of an external review. He offered his advice as CMO, the Minister opted not to take it and go with an external review. There's no scandal when a senior civil servant's advice isn't taken, it happens regularly.

All detailed here: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30910324.html