Is The Property Market Unfair to First Time Buyers?

Dwarf.Shortage

mariaalice wrote: »

Yes but it is still on the border of Dublin and somewhat affordable for a single applicant especially with help to buy.

Yeah I don't disagree it's a viable option until you start a family. About an hours commute to town and you could build up some equity before trading up.

Dwarf.Shortage

mariaalice wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/new-priory-new-priory-hole-in-the-wall-road-clongriffin-dublin-13/4300831

Another new one-bed apartment for 205K and it's definitely in Dublin.

I've been looking at these and wondering what the catch is tbh, 3 bed apartment for 300k only about 10km out from town. The pricing is not in keeping with Dublin generally and developers aren't in the game for charity I assume there is a reason.

I won't be in a position to buy for another year or so but if I was ready to go I'd be taking a major look at these. I would be expecting some bad news regarding the area though. Not that that is insurmountable.

The Tetrarch

Taylor365 wrote: »

No mobile phones. Right I'll go with he 80s:
Average wage of £8,000-15,000 a year.
Dublin 3 bed cost about £30,000.

Now:
Average wage of €30,000-50,000 a year.
Dublin 3 bed cost about €400,000.

Early 1980s
Mortgage 3.1 times salary. Mortgage interest 17%. Mortgage repayment 52.7% of your gross salary (plus more for principal repayment).
The government stepped in when building societies were raising mortgage interest to 19%.
Houses are never cheap. You do not have high wages and cheap houses.
The people with high wages bid up house prices.

kippy

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

If you are on the average industrial wage in this country you can get a maximum mortgage of €133k, the average house price is €267,000.

Can you imagine how frustrating it is to need a €134,000 deposit to buy the average house, despite being on the average industrial wage, and to have people who bought in the 80s and pulled the ladder up after them tell you that your problem is that you have an iPhone?

It's f**king nonsense.

Single buyers, particularly those on average wages (no matter what decade we are in) would have ALWAYS found it extremely difficult to buy a house.
A lot of couples, even in the 80's who bought or build a house would have done so through council mortgages (something that really should be looked at again) and our rurally would have built on their own sites with the assistance of council mortgages.

A lot of the state intervention (indeed all) in the last few decades has really just increased the cost of building/buying houses instead of looking at the coal face of where the issue is.

Again, Id say a single buyer has ALWAYS found it extremely difficult to buy.
If you are intent on looking at houses you might need to move away from where the averages are as high as that.

_Brian

Bluefoam wrote: »

Jaysus calm down everyone, I'm not the enemy... I've just spent ten years getting back on my feet. Sold my home in the last recession and had to pay off that debt before competing with the government to buy a tiny house.... I'm not a high earner, just an average buyer.

My point is that it is possible. I gave up literally everything to get here, but that was my priority.

I probably agree with your point.

We got our first home on the mid 90’s.
We made massive lifestyle sacrifices to ensure we could do it while many of our friends were spending and spending. I regularly worked 25-30 sequential days to get the overtime pay to save up.

It’s always been tough to break into the property chain, sometimes I feel that people are unable to make even a short term (2-3 years) sacrifice to save enough to break in.

Dwarf.Shortage

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I've been looking at these and wondering what the catch is tbh, 3 bed apartment for 300k only about 10km out from town. The pricing is not in keeping with Dublin generally and developers aren't in the game for charity I assume there is a reason.

I won't be in a position to buy for another year or so but if I was ready to go I'd be taking a major look at these. I would be expecting some bad news regarding the area though. Not that that is insurmountable.

Quick Google and this is the priory hall complex that had to be evacuated and abandoned due to being complete deathtraps, as they are not new there is no HTB support.

If the retrofitting was done right they could now be great buys.

Dwarf.Shortage

kippy wrote: »

Single buyers, particularly those on average wages (no matter what decade we are in) would have ALWAYS found it extremely difficult to buy a house.
A lot of couples, even in the 80's who bought or build a house would have done so through council mortgages (something that really should be looked at again) and our rurally would have built on their own sites with the assistance of council mortgages.

A lot of the state intervention (indeed all) in the last few decades has really just increased the cost of building/buying houses instead of looking at the coal face of where the issue is.

Again, Id say a single buyer has ALWAYS found it extremely difficult to buy.
If you are intent on looking at houses you might need to move away from where the averages are as high as that.

I understand all of this. My issue is with people who ignore all of the structural factors that go against FTBs on average incomes and instead paint them as spendthrifts who could buy a house if they wanted it enough.

For many people it is genuinely undoable.

Bluefoam

Is The Property Market Unfair to First Time Buyers?

Yes, but it always has been... This converation has been going on for donkeys years!

My parents still reminisce about how they would have liked the corner house, but it was an extra £200, which they just couldn't stretch to...

Geuze

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Average industrial wage is €38k.

Given that AIW isn't published anymore, where are you getting this figure?

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/elca/earningsandlabourcostsannualdata2019/

Mean annual earnings were 38,871 in 2018, is that what you are referring to?

Dwarf.Shortage

Geuze wrote: »

Given that AIW isn't published anymore, where are you getting this figure?

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/elca/earningsandlabourcostsannualdata2019/

Mean annual earnings were 38,871 in 2018, is that what you are referring to?

I Google'd average industrial wage Ireland and whatever figure I got obviously wasn't actually the AIW.

It was 35,620 in 2015 when last published so I doubt the number is far off, coincidental though that may be.

Geuze

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

For many people it is genuinely undoable.

Correct, it is harder for young people to buy their first house nowadays, correct.

A couple paying Dublin rent and trying to save = extremely difficult

A couple aged 30 in Thurles, both with permanent jobs, say 45k each, not easy, but doable.

Geuze

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

If you are on the average industrial wage in this country you can get a maximum mortgage of €133k, the average house price is €267,000.

2019 Average earnings = 40,283

2019 Average earnings of FT workers = 48,946

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/elca/earningsandlabourcostsannualdata2019/





Even better, look at the average earnings of mortgage applicants:

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=5


FTB Dublin = 93k, with 80k deposit

FTB non-Dublin = 70k, with deposit of 47.5k

BrokenArrows

The question is a bit stupid. It has nothing to do with being "fair".

Its like asking "are we unfair to people with less money" or in the jobs market "are unfair to people with less experience".

Its a very simple situation. Salaries have not kept pace with inflation for decades and house prices have surpassed inflation for decades which leaves us with an unfortunate gap between salaries and house prices.

There is no quick fix. Its all about supply and demand.
Unfortunately those that are capable of creating supply know that its in their best interests not to build too much and the government couldnt organise a pissup in a brewery so we are where we are.

Dwarf.Shortage

Geuze wrote: »

2019 Average earnings = 40,283

2019 Average earnings of FT workers = 48,946

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/elca/earningsandlabourcostsannualdata2019/





Even better, look at the average earnings of mortgage applicants:

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/household-credit-market-report/household-credit-market-report-2020.pdf?sfvrsn=5


FTB Dublin = 93k, with 80k deposit

FTB non-Dublin = 70k, with deposit of 47.5k

Looking at the average salary of mortgage applicants just side steps the actual issue. The people we are talking about aren't in that pool because they can't afford to buy, that's the point.

The salary of a mortgage applicant being high enough to afford a home is a self evident truth, that is why they applied.


The mean is also much higher than the median because of small numbers of ultra high earners.

brisan

Donald Trump wrote: »

You would also have to adjust for tax rates there as well. It might not make a huge difference, but it might make a bit of a difference!

Add in 16% and higher Mortgage interest rates as well
I was that soldier but it does not fit the agenda
It was always hard to buy a house ,you always had to sacrifice ,some are not prepared to
Others have a skewed view of what sacrifice means

Donald Trump

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

The address is wrong, the apartment is in Meath. This is not subjective in any way.

What is wrong with the address? It's closer to the city centre than Malahide or Swords

brisan

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

If you are on the average industrial wage in this country you can get a maximum mortgage of €133k, the average house price is €267,000.

Can you imagine how frustrating it is to need a €134,000 deposit to buy the average house, despite being on the average industrial wage, and to have people who bought in the 80s and pulled the ladder up after them tell you that your problem is that you have an iPhone?

It's f**king nonsense.

WHats twice 133k ?
What's the average house price ?
It was always near impossible to buy a house as a single buyer .even during the 80s

brisan

The whole of the 80s was a recession
Emigration was high ,income tax was 58%
Someone had to pay for CJs yacht, island, horses and handmade shirts

Dwarf.Shortage

Donald Trump wrote: »

What is wrong with the address? It's closer to the city centre than Malahide or Swords

The claim was the apartment was in Dublin, the map view of the ad demonstrates that it isn't. I've turned my computer upside down, I've zoomed and and out, I closed the browser and re opened it and no matter what I try it is very much in Meath.

It may be closer as the crow flies but it's an hour on public transport into town, Dart from Malahide takes 25 mins. I don't think people are too worried about the actual length their commute is as the crow flies once it's quick.

And no, I don't think a ftb should harbour any expectation at all of living in Malahide unless they are a very high earner. But it is not comparable to Clonee (read: Dunboyne) as a commuting option.

brisan

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Do people on here actually believe that it's easy for someone to save 100k by the time they're 30?

Median gross income in Ireland is only around 35k a year. According to PWCs income tax calculator that gives you about 560 a week net.

Assuming you started saving at 22, in order to save 100k by the time they're 30 you actually need to save 240 euro a week, not 200. Say 250 a week for rent (assuming you don't mind living in a house share when you're 30), that would leave you a grand total of 70 quid a week for bills, food, transport costs and any discretionary spending. So yeah, if you graduated college at 22, walked into a job paying a median salary the minute you graduated, and lived like a hermit for 8 years you might just about save 100k. Good luck ever going on holiday, buying a car etc. though.

Of course though the idea that the average person graduates college at 22 and walks into a well paying job is a fantasy. Only half of the 25-34 age group are college graduates and by definition half of the workers in the country are earning below the median salary with newer entrants into the labour force over-represented in lower income brackets.

Me personally I graduated college in 2009, at the age of 23 with a STEM degree. I spent 6 months trying to find ANY job, without success before I gave up and decided to go back and do a masters. I graduated from my masters in 2011 at the age of 25, about 20 grand in debt, and despite finishing top of my class it still took me 6 months to get a job. I got my first real job at 26, and it wasn't until I was 28 that I had payed off my college debt. And I was one of the lucky ones, most of my friends from school and college still aren't making decent money.

EDIT: While overall median weekly wage is 560 a week, median wage for the 25-29 age group is actually only 470 according to the CSO. Totally realistic for the average person to save over half their income for 8 years in order to save for a house deposit.

Ever consider living at home

Donald Trump

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

The claim was the apartment was in Dublin, the map view of the ad demonstrates that it isn't. I've turned my computer upside down, I've zoomed and and out, I closed the browser and re opened it and no matter what I try it is very much in Meath.

It may be closer as the crow flies but it's an hour on public transport into town, Dart from Malahide takes 25 mins. I don't think people are too worried about the actual length their commute is as the crow flies once it's quick.

And no, I don't think a ftb should harbour any expectation at all of living in Malahide unless they are a very high earner. But it is not comparable to Clonee (read: Dunboyne) as a commuting option.

Well then, how about Balbriggan for the FTB?


Balbriggan being further out. Admittedly on the train line if you live close to the centre but if you are in one of the newer estates then it's a bit of a trek to try to walk to the train. Swords is not on the train. Regular Dublin bus must be the guts of 50 mins or an hour to city centre from Swords



That's much further than Clonee - regardless of which side of the county border you are on in Clonee

brisan

mariaalice wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-bedroom-apartments-summerseat-clonee-dublin-15/4355868

That is a new apartment in Dublin for 205K.

I am not saying it is for everybody.

You will do a lot better in Dublin ,actually in Dublin


https://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/property-for-sale?maxprice=225000

brisan

jrosen wrote: »

I dont think its unfair, I think buying your first home or indeed subsequent homes is challenging and difficult but something that we all generally get through.
It takes determination and sacrifice which imo not everyone has.

I also think people have to let go of the idea that they need to live in a certain area, or that they deserve too almost. You live where your pay check says you live. People need to be realistic

That should be a sticky in every property thread
Lads on 40k wanting to live in DLR is unrealistic

brisan

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I've been looking at these and wondering what the catch is tbh, 3 bed apartment for 300k only about 10km out from town. The pricing is not in keeping with Dublin generally and developers aren't in the game for charity I assume there is a reason.

I won't be in a position to buy for another year or so but if I was ready to go I'd be taking a major look at these. I would be expecting some bad news regarding the area though. Not that that is insurmountable.

The catch is in the name
Priory Hall and all the baggage that comes with it
However they were built and inspected by the council at every stage
Lot of social housing but everything on your doorstep
DART 10 min walk ,bus on your doorstep
Swimming pool across the road with a leisure center and bar attached
More schools than you can mention within walking distance
Shopping Centre 10 min walk away
Major park on your doorstep
10 min drive to the coast
if you want an apartment these are a great buy
no major anti social activity in the area and Donaghmede is well settled .50 yrs going at this stage

brisan

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Quick Google and this is the priory hall complex that had to be evacuated and abandoned due to being complete deathtraps, as they are not new there is no HTB support.

If the retrofitting was done right they could now be great buys.

hey were stripped back to bare concrete and every stage was inspected by council engineers
New wiring ,new plumbing new lifts everything was stripped
They are of a higher quality build than the vast majority of new build apartments in Dublin

Padre_Pio

brisan wrote: »

WHats twice 133k ?
What's the average house price ?
It was always near impossible to buy a house as a single buyer .even during the 80s

Of course assuming your partner is on average wage or better, which may not be the case. Plus needing 2 years continuous, full time employment between you. Throw in any sort of sickness payment, health issue, mat leave etc, and you're back at square one.

If the average house is x2 the average wage, then even a basic, crap house is usually out of reach for most people.

brisan

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I understand all of this. My issue is with people who ignore all of the structural factors that go against FTBs on average incomes and instead paint them as spendthrifts who could buy a house if they wanted it enough.

For many people it is genuinely undoable.

it always was undoable for some people
As a single person it was always undoable
As a couple with average wage it is doable .but sacrifices have to be made
A lot of young people will not make those sacrifices
Would be buyers complain about rent
What's wrong with living at home for 2 years

brisan

Donald Trump wrote: »

Well then, how about Balbriggan for the FTB?


Balbriggan being further out. Admittedly on the train line if you live close to the centre but if you are in one of the newer estates then it's a bit of a trek to try to walk to the train. Swords is not on the train. Regular Dublin bus must be the guts of 50 mins or an hour to city centre from Swords



That's much further than Clonee - regardless of which side of the county border you are on in Clonee

Swords is 35mins by bus to the quays


https://www.eirebus.ie/swords-express

Padre_Pio

brisan wrote: »

it always was undoable for some people
As a single person it was always undoable
As a couple with average wage it is doable .but sacrifices have to be made
A lot of young people will not make those sacrifices
Would be buyers complain about rent
What's wrong with living at home for 2 years

The commute from Sligo to Cork is a bit much for me:rolleyes:

Dwarf.Shortage

brisan wrote: »

it always was undoable for some people
As a single person it was always undoable
As a couple with average wage it is doable .but sacrifices have to be made
A lot of young people will not make those sacrifices
Would be buyers complain about rent
What's wrong with living at home for 2 years

I am at home and have been for a year, also lucky enough to be in a well remunerated profession so by late 2021 I will have all my ducks in a row to be able to spend 325-340k as a single applicant. I’ve taken on cash work evenings and weekends to put 100-150 into my hand and keep me away from ATMs.

But this whole process has just opened my eyes to how narrow the goalposts are. If I couldn’t live at home or wasn’t pulling a very high salary for my age I wouldn’t have a hope.

And I know enough people who don’t fit this “won’t make the sacrifices” prototype that I get annoyed when I see them dismissed as the “unhoused because they spend it all on iPhones and avacados” crowd.

They are unhoused because houses are impossible to afford for those on average incomes, often even as dual applicants. Whether that has always been the case or not it is the case now and that is the argument I have been making since I got involved in this thread.

I don’t expect anyone on an average income to be able to buy a house wherever they want to live, but I will argue against the nonsense reasons put forward as to why they can’t.