Why is it so complicated to daily find out the ages of those who passed?

normanoffside

ShineOn7 wrote: »

That Conor lad on Twitter's bio

Nothing Medical in there

Perhaps his number crunching needs to be looked into more before we say it's gospel?

Rule number one of all stats: check your sources

He's a data guy.
I don't think anyone who is a statistician needs health care qualifications?

He quotes HSPC data as the source of all his graphs

ShineOn7

Norman caught this from today's briefing

I find it a lot more worrying that when Dr Ro Ro was asked about numbers of deaths in Nursing homes of late he 'didn't have those figures in front of him'.

How could Glynn not expect a question about this?

Thierry12

Thierry12 wrote: »

Walk into any hospital in Ireland right now and they'll put that RTE photo controversy to shame

Coffees together on breaks, eating in canteens, maskless in corridors talking

Its like they don't realise virus is airborne

Heard the exact same thing from a friend who had a terminally ill family member (non COVID) in one of Dublin's main hospitals that he wasn't allowed to visit, and who sadly passed recently.

He was in hospital to find out their latest status. No masks, no social distancing, no hand sanitising, nothing.... except when they went in to wards. He was totally horrified. The same guy runs a business that has lost 80% of it's trade due to COVID and would fire anyone on the spot behaving like the staff of this hospital.

ShineOn7

ShineOn7 wrote: »

That Conor lad on Twitter's bio




Nothing Medical in there

Perhaps his number crunching needs to be looked into more before we say it's gospel?

Rule number one of all stats: check your sources

That's the thing about data - you can independently check if he is talking rubbish or not. And medics aren't the best people when it comes to stats. Some people seem to think you need a doctor to advise on the best type of rubbish bag to use in a hospital bin, or the best plunger for a hospital toilet.

spookwoman

Looks like the daily epi reports are back

here is the latest

spookwoman

ShineOn7

Sad to see a recent passing aged 55-64


That's still young by today's standards

ShineOn7

A good few mortalities in today's figures sadly

Spookwoman/Bodran Dude: when can we find out the ages of those people mentioned in today's briefing?

Is there a delay or a day or two and then it's on the Hub/HSPC.ie?

spookwoman

ShineOn7 wrote: »

A good few mortalities in today's figures sadly

Spookwoman/Bodran Dude: when can we find out the ages of those people mentioned in today's briefing?

Is there a delay or a day or two and then it's on the Hub/HSPC.ie?

Will see them appear on https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

The numbers in todays report is Summary characteristics of confirmed COVID-19 cases notified in Ireland up to midnight 02/12/2020

The nxt report will be tuesday they dont do them on Sundays or mondays.

brisan

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Norman caught this from today's briefing




How could Glynn not expect a question about this?

He did expect the question
That’s why he made sure the figures were not in front of him
That’s purely my opinion

ShineOn7

Of the 51 deaths reported today

• 49 occurred in January
• Median age: 80
• Age range: 58-103
• Total deaths reported this month: 532

bb1234567

Mad how often there are centarians in the stats many of the days, there's only 456 people over 100 in all of Ireland! (as of 2019)
Odds of a centenarian dying in a given year are 50:50

spookwoman

Epi 2 week reports- Number of deaths in all covid-19 cases by age group notified in Ireland between dates https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_WEB%20report_20200120.pdf

date|25-54|55-64|65-74|75-84|85+
04/01/21-16/01/21|6|10|37|77|85
05/01/21-18/01/21|8|14|40|98|103
16/01/21-19/01/21|8|14|43|108|108

sporina

is there an actual known reason on here as to why they don't give us the stats on the deceased? 90 today (RIP) but no other information

Geuze

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcasesseries20/

Data up to 15-Jan.

ShineOn7

Of the 48 deaths reported today

• 45 occurred in January
• Median age:
• Age range: 30-99

30 is too young


No info - as fcuking always - in the Presser about if they had underlying symptoms or not

ShineOn7

Of the 101 deaths reported today

• 83 occurred in January
• 13 occurred in February
• Median age: 85
• Age range: 19-103

Spookwoman:

Any data on if the younger people who recently passed had underlying symthoms?

ShineOn7

Via a usually reliable poster on the Reddit Ireland daily thread

That's the 3rd person in the 0-24 range to die out of ~47,000 cases in that group.

So a rate of 1 death per 15,000-16,000 cases and that's only confirmed cases so the real ratio is probably even better than that.

I wouldn't be too concerned, it's a massive outlier.

average_runner

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Of the 101 deaths reported today

• 83 occurred in January
• 13 occurred in February
• Median age: 85
• Age range: 19-103

Spookwoman:

Any data on if the younger people who recently passed had underlying symthoms?

A person with under lying issues can live well into their 80's. Do doesn't matter

spookwoman

Epi reporting gone to sh*te lately cso wont be out till next latest cso wont be out till next week.

Their reporting now is 2 week so amount between 2 dates and done daily.

Todays report 18/01/2021 to 31/01/2021 has 7 deaths in the 25-64 age group and yesterdays 17/01/2021 to 30/01/2021 has 10 deaths. The ages groups are 25-64 65-74 85-84 85+.

polesheep

average_runner wrote: »

A person with under lying issues can live well into their 80's. Do doesn't matter

And a person with underlying conditions might not even make it out of the neonatal unit. It all depends on the type of condition. I for one think it's important to know how Covid affects those with underlying conditions.

bb1234567

polesheep wrote: »

And a person with underlying conditions might not even make it out of the neonatal unit. It all depends on the type of condition. I for one think it's important to know how Covid affects those with underlying conditions.

It also depends on the severity of the type of condition. Some potentially dangerous underlying conditions can be managed well enough to attain long life expectancy but a more advanced form of the illness can have their life dramatically shortened even with good healthcare.

So really people dismissing all COVID deaths as 'would have died anyway' with or without covid because they had an underlying condition is a lot of bull****. A case by case analysis is absolutely necessary to say with much certainty but I guess we can get a better idea by judging life expectancy based on the most common underlying conditions.

An interesting report analysing the underlying conditions of all COVID deaths in Ireland up until january 22nd was recently reported.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-majority-of-fatalities-had-underlying-conditions-1.4471443

So, 17%(460) of the 2706 victims by January 22nd had no underlying condition.
45%(1212) had one underlying condition.
25% (678) had two underlying conditions/
13% (355) had 3 or more.

6 most common underlying conditions:

967/2706 deaths had chronic heart disease.
This has low life expectancy after diagnosis. (Well, if somebody could just confirm, the IT article specifically mentions 'chronic heart disease' but when I google that, everything that comes up is about heart failure. So I assume they are the same thing?)

About 50%[of those with heart failure] have an average life expectancy of less than five years. For those with advanced forms of heart failure, nearly 90% die within one year.

771/2706 had dementia.
No major impact on life expectancy. Average age of diagnosis is 80 and life expectancy after diagnosis is 8-12 years.

520/2706 had hypetension.
Can cut years. Very hard to get an average because of how massively the height of people's blood pressure varies by and there's large variation on effect on health depending on the number . But life threateningly high blood pressure is pretty uncommon, usually just cuts a few years off if it's uncontrolled and a bit on the high side.

450/2706 had Chronic respiratory disease, again massive variation in lifespan of sufferers.

The five-year life expectancy for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) ranges from 40%-70%.

389/2706 had diabetes.
Doesn't specify if T1 or T2. But in a first world country life expectancy is generally pretty normal if looked after properly, which considering the age of the victims we can assume it was.

450/2706 had kidney disease. Again, massive variation depending on stage of illness. I guess considering most victims were in their 70's and 80's they would have died of kidney disease within the next couple of years, as they would hve been too old to be eligible for kidney transplant.

Without a transplant, if you are between 70 and 75 years, life expectancy is 4 years for both men and women

And just to complicate things further, it must be remembered that just over 1/3 of all victims had at least two of the above conditions simultaneously. Although you could probably guess ,some are common couplings, rather than a random unlucky mix of failing kidneys and COPD :P Probably huge overlap between heart disease and hypertension numbers. And a large number of the people with 3+ conditions probably suffer metabolic syndrome.

Either way, it's likely that the people with heart disease, and kidney disease, did not lose a lot of life.
But among the victims with no condition and suffering from the other conditions(not HD,or KD), it's likely quite a lot of years of life were lost, among those suffering from just one of those alone at least.

But as you can see from this analysis how ridiculous it is to say all COVID victims were very ill or would have died anyway given the tremendous variation in severity of types of illnesses.

polesheep

bb1234567 wrote: »

It also depends on the severity of the type of condition. Some potentially dangerous underlying conditions can be managed well enough to attain long life expectancy but a more advanced form of the illness can have their life dramatically shortened even with good healthcare.

So really people dismissing all COVID deaths as 'would have died anyway' with or without covid because they had an underlying condition is a lot of bull****. A case by case analysis is absolutely necessary to say with much certainty but I guess we can get a better idea by judging life expectancy based on the most common underlying conditions.

An interesting report analysing the underlying conditions of all COVID deaths in Ireland up until january 22nd was recently reported.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-majority-of-fatalities-had-underlying-conditions-1.4471443

So, 17%(460) of the 2706 victims by January 22nd had no underlying condition.
45%(1212) had one underlying condition.
25% (678) had two underlying conditions/
13% (355) had 3 or more.

Most common underlying conditions:

967/2706 deaths had chronic heart disease.
This has low life expectancy after diagnosis. (Well, if somebody could just confirm, the IT article specifically mentions 'chronic heart disease' but when I google that, everything that comes up is about heart failure. So I assume they are the same thing?)


771/2706 had dementia.
No major impact on life expectancy. Average age of diagnosis is 80 and life expectancy after diagnosis is 8-12 years.

520/2706 had hypetension.
Can cut years. Very hard to get an average because of how massively the height of people's blood pressure varies by and there's large variation on effect on health depending on the number . But life threateningly high blood pressure is pretty uncommon, usually just cuts a few years off if it's uncontrolled and a bit on the high side.

That wasn't my intention. I just feel it's important to know as much as possible.

bb1234567

polesheep wrote: »

That wasn't my intention. I just feel it's important to know as much as possible.

I was not referring to you specifically. It is a commonly held perception throughout much of society and is a bit superficial.

ShineOn7

Of the 66 deaths reported today

• 41 occurred in February
• 8 occurred in January
• 7 occurred in December
• 9 occurred in November or earlier
• Median age: 84
• Age range: 39-98

NIMAN

Why are deaths in November and December getting reported in Feb?

TimeToShine

Would it be so difficult for them to put up a bar chart or distribution chart of the deaths by age whenever they report, it takes about 30 seconds in Excel for God's sake. A university student could do it for them.

The fact that this thread exists is a testament to how useless releasing "median" and "range" data alone is.

Richard Hillman

They know the age ranges. They know the underlying illnesses. They have all the statistics. They just don't want us to know.

The J Stands for Jay

TimeToShine wrote: »

, it takes about 30 seconds in Excel for God's sake. A university student could do it for them.

I don't think we need to start hiring people to press F11.

spookwoman

For December deaths to date is about 206
Jan from the 11th day before they started really putting the so many deaths in this month and so many in that is a terrible 1,170 to date.
Feb is 383