Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Windmill100000

I live near a testing centre in the South East and it's on the route of my daily walk. The end of last week I saw no cars of people waiting to be tested. The same time of day weeks ago the queue was very long. Personally, I'm inclined to believe current lower numbers as a result of what I've seen. Also, what would be the benefit of releasing lower number that would result in people being less compliant?

prunudo

is_that_so wrote: »

Part of the answer is more tools, not more of the same. The assumption with that long term Level 3 is that we will not find more effective ways of managing it. We simply have to, otherwise it's all down to initial vaccines, with the risk that they may not do what we hope.

Thats another fear that i have and probably needs its own thread but how cosy are big pharma with those in nphet and the hse. Are they blowing smoke up their asses about these vaccines and how soon they'll be here and their effectiveness all the while they're taking their eye off the tools or procedures that are needed to live with the virus.

khalessi

Can I ask is no one here concerned that health officials have admitted what was known all along regarding schoolsthat public health officials are being deliberately conservative when it comes to who is deemed a close contact in a school setting?

That despite this being publically questioned numerous times and denied, with them saying nothing to see that they now feel safe admitting it as no one really cares

Clonmel1000

obi604 wrote: »

Are car washing services closed for Level 5?

Nope

Paddygreen

khalessi wrote: »

You are allowed form a social bubble with family member for contact and social, so I presume so.

It was so very gracious of our leaders and experts to allow that but personally I think they are far too soft on the peasantry. Sparing the whip might not work in the long run.

I Am The Law

funnydoggy wrote: »

I still have my suspicions you're a member of NPHET If so we have our Christmas plan right there folks!

I think he just loves the thesaurus in word.

The_Brood

khalessi wrote: »

Can I ask is no one here concerned that health officials have admitted what was known all along regarding schoolsthat public health officials are being deliberately conservative when it comes to who is deemed a close contact in a school setting?

That despite this being publically questioned numerous times and denied, with them saying nothing to see that they now feel safe admitting it as no one really cares

It's a total and complete outrage but nothing will ever be done about it, because parents who can't stand their own children that they chose to bring into this world are so many and form such a diverse and powerful lobby group that the government must abide by their will. If they tell the government to announce we are being invaded by aliens and vampires tomorrow, the government will also do that with a straight face.

ninebeanrows

I keep hearing people saying that Level 5 is working etc, we needed to it, we are bucking the trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


But it was level 3+ not level 5, people are so gullible

iamwhoiam

mloc123 wrote: »

That was not level 3... That was the tweaked level 3? Iirc level 3 was up to 6 people.in a house?

Could see them dropping the county limit from it too, since county level restrictions are done now.

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/ad569-level-3/


Social and family gatherings
In your home or garden

No visitors to home or garden, with the exception of visits for essential purposes (for example: family reasons such as providing care to children, elderly or vulnerable people, and in particular those who live alone).

Other settings outside your home or garden

In outdoor settings away from your home or garden, up to 6 people from a maximum of 2 households can meet while maintaining strict physical distancing – including for outdoor exercise and dining.

amadangomor

Paddygreen wrote: »

It was so very gracious of our leaders and experts to allow that but personally I think they are far too soft on the peasantry. Sparing the whip might not work in the long run.

Do you have any solutions of your own or did you just post that for an aul moan?

Charles Babbage

is_that_so wrote: »

The plan for now seem to be , 6 weeks of this, then Level 3 on Dec 1 and ideally Level 2 at or around Christmas. All subject to change of course.

Open shops in December and restaurants etc in the period between Xmas and the New Year would be a plan.

KrustyUCC

harr wrote: »

While I agree somewhat with the idea of filtering between level 2 and 3 depending on numbers but I would hate the idea of a prolonged level 3 approach , the idea of having to stay in your own County for months on end is a depressing taught.
It might work for people in the larger counties where services are better and have a city centre or larger towns but for people in a smaller county it would be a nightmare

Level three would be a nightmare for anybody with friends, family, partners in other counties

Already this year you've had March 12th - 29th June which is 15 weeks and 4 days and 7th October - 1st of December minimum which is a further 7 weeks and 6 days of being stuck in your county

That's national restrictions only not to mind the KOL restrictions or level three/4 in Dublin or Donegal

Long term any level that excludes travel to other counties isn't sustainable imo

ginoginelli

I Am The Law wrote: »

I think he just loves the thesaurus in word.

Hello. He has grown on me! He has an interesting take on the English language and the requesting of the mods to sticky his 'insightful posts' is a master stroke!

Paddygreen take note!!

MelbourneMan

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I keep hearing people saying that Level 5 is working etc, we needed to it, we are bucking the trend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


But it was level 3+ not level 5, people are so gullible

Hello.

There is an nuance to the dynamic that you are missing here, but it is readily explained :

New cases were probably decreasing before the move to L5, showing that L3+ as we might call it, was having a curtailing effect on the transmission rate. But it is incorrect - and I would like to be very clear on this point - for anyone to deduce from this that L3 was going to serve our purposes. It was not. Not because the cases were not going to be reduced, but because the absolute numbers were already too high, and the rate of increase was already too steep on the exponential curve, and was going to exceed the capacity of the HSE to handle the case load. A stronger action was necessary to increase the rate of reduction in cases in a short period. This will now come through very dramatically of the coming week I project.

Overall, I feel the controls implemented of the last two months will prove on analysis to have been very well judged.

Furthermore, I can add that the learning outcome for all from the trend in the virus here and overseas over the last 5 months, is that 'opening up' as it has been presented is not an option in the period prior to virus roll out.

We now need politicians, the informed influential media, and the people of Ireland themselves, to come to acceptance of the fact the Level three with some plusses and minuses is the real 'Living with Covid' for the foreseeable medium term. Levels 1 and 2 have no practical role to play and are an unfortunate tantalising misleading of the public, if we are to avoid yoyo lockdowns and openings. We need leadership now, to gain acceptance to the reality that pubs and cafes etc cannot really open at all, that crowds or gatherings of any sorts at sports events are on long term pause, and that theatre, concerts, opera, cinemas and such entertainments are simply not viable with the transmission character of SARS-CoV-2.

khalessi

ginoginelli wrote: »

Hello. He has grown on me! He has an interesting take on the English language and the requesting of the mods to sticky his 'insightful posts' is a master stroke!

Paddygreen take note!!

Yes indeed he is a cunning linquist.:D

Irishder

What do people think will happen on the first weekend in december?

For Dublin will

- Shops Open?
- Pubs open (Table service only)?
- Restaurants Open?
- Hotels back to normal?

Half thinking about booking a hotel in Dublin for that weekend, need something to look forward to

ninebeanrows

Irishder wrote: »

What do people think will happen on the first weekend in december?

For Dublin will

- Shops Open?
- Pubs open (Table service only)?
- Restaurants Open?
- Hotels back to normal?

Half thinking about booking a hotel in Dublin for that weekend, need something to look forward to

I think all of above but it'll be restaurants only, wet pubs closed.

prunudo

Irishder wrote: »

What do people think will happen on the first weekend in december?

For Dublin will

- Shops Open?
- Pubs open (Table service only)?
- Restaurants Open?
- Hotels back to normal?

Half thinking about booking a hotel in Dublin for that weekend, need something to look forward to

Keep your money in your pocket, I'll eat my hat if pubs or restaurants open in the first phase of reopening. Retail first, then 2 weeks later maybe if we're lucky we'll get more easing of restrictions.

Happydays2020

prunudo wrote: »

Keep your money in your pocket, I'll eat my hat if pubs or restaurants open in the first phase of reopening. Retail first, then 2 weeks later maybe if we're lucky we'll get more easing of restrictions.

I expect the same.

eagle eye

CDC study finds kids do pass on the virus.

Findings from a prospective household study with intensive daily observation for ≥7 consecutive days indicate that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among household members was frequent from either children or adults.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6944e1.htm?s_cid=mm6944e1_w

manniot2

prunudo wrote: »

Keep your money in your pocket, I'll eat my hat if pubs or restaurants open in the first phase of reopening. Retail first, then 2 weeks later maybe if we're lucky we'll get more easing of restrictions.

Remember when we couldn’t open the pubs because the schhols took priority. What utter nonsense will they come with for December I wonder.

Stheno

manniot2 wrote: »

Remember when we couldn’t open the pubs because the schhols took priority. What utter nonsense will they come with for December I wonder.

Increased visitors from abroad due to Christmas?

is_that_so

The Observer on increasing civil unrest in Europe.

Fears of civil unrest grow as people across the continent no longer trust leaders to protect them during the crisis

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/01/governments-lose-control-virus-revolt-civil-unrest-continent

hmmm

Level 3 until a vaccine I predict, unfortunately. Fully agree with MelbourneMan. We could lift the limit on outdoor dining, but indoor-anything is difficult.

Irishder

genuinely cant see an issue opening pubs and restaurants if you limit numbers and use table service, shutting down a whole sector of the economy for this length is nuts.

prunudo

manniot2 wrote: »

Remember when we couldn’t open the pubs because the schhols took priority. What utter nonsense will they come with for December I wonder.

Not saying i agree with it, just what i think nphet will do. At same time, if we open too early and cases start creeping around 18th Dec, don't want to see ramping up restrictions over the Christmas period.

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

CDC study finds kids do pass on the virus.



https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6944e1.htm?s_cid=mm6944e1_w

In households ,where a lot of transmission takes place anyway.

CalamariFritti

GT89 wrote: »

Ronaldo knows it's bs now too
https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/european/cristiano-ronaldo-coronavirus-test-positive-symptoms-pcr-juventus-vs-barcelona-b1397080.html

Cheers. Time for my weekly rant.

While the PCR test is not as BS as some of the really anti-restriction people will tell us it is far from without problems. It just detects something that matches the pattern, often through many many cycles of amplification. It then just gives a yes or no. It cannot quantify viral load or age or viability of it. It can not tell whether someone is sick or not or whether someone is infectious or not.

Its a bit like a speedometer that can only tell you whether you're moving or not but not the actual speed. So all we can do is go and say 'oh that one is moving, scary, isolate'. We dont know whether that someone is moving at 220 km/h or going at snails speed.

I guess that's one of the points the anti-restriction / anti-overreaction crowd (like me) are making. Between our inability to quantify actual spread, our inability to nail down means and locations of spread, our use of 'guesstimates' and sketchy models everywhere, our problematic test, our constantly changing and tinkered with response, between all these things we are so all over the place we dont know what we're doing half the time.

But we are happy to lock people to their homes for 6 weeks and close thousands of businesses all the same.

And just as Tony was going to settle smugly into his armchair practicing his 'I-told-you-so' grin it appears that level 5 was yet again another overreaction. Too bad. Now the spin machine has to be sent into overdrive again.

Its all so frustrating.

ninebeanrows

There will be a fear of the 12 pubs of Christmas malarky so I really dont think wet pubs will open.

It'll be restaurants at best.

I guess outdoor areas in wet pubs maybe but most wont bother.

kippy

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Cheers. Time for my weekly rant.

While the PCR test is not as BS as some of the really anti-restriction people will tell us it is far from without problems. It just detects something that matches the pattern, often through many many cycles of amplification. It then just gives a yes or no. It cannot quantify viral load or age or viability of it. It can not tell whether someone is sick or not or whether someone is infectious or not.

Its a bit like a speedometer that can only tell you whether you're moving or not but not the actual speed. So all we can do is go and say 'oh that one is moving, scary, isolate'. We dont know whether that someone is moving at 220 km/h or going at snails speed.

I guess that's one of the points the anti-restriction / anti-overreaction crowd (like me) are making. Between our inability to quantify actual spread, our inability to nail down means and locations of spread, our use of 'guesstimates' and sketchy models everywhere, our problematic test, our constantly changing and tinkered with response, between all these things we are so all over the place we dont know what we're doing half the time.

But we are happy to lock people to their homes for 6 weeks and close thousands of businesses all the same.

And just as Tony was going to settle smugly into his armchair practicing his 'I-told-you-so' grin it appears that level 5 was yet again another overreaction. Too bad. Now the spin machine has to be sent into overdrive again.

Its all so frustrating.

Unfortunately we are in the midst of an almost unprecedented global pandemic. **** is going to be frustrating.