Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

UrbanFret

Goldengirl wrote: »

What difference does it make whether they did or not ?
Apart from the obvious disappointment and distress to both the patients, their families and the hospital staff involved .
These are people infected who are already vulnerable and now are 4 times more at risk of complications than they were now they have Covid .
These people still have to counted whether they got it in hospital or not!
They are doubly sick , and are taking up hospital beds .
There is too much concentration on numbers here.
It has always been stressed that if numbers in the community are rising it is more difficult to prevent those vulnerable in nursing homes from getting it .
Hospitals are the same risk as a very high percentage of those in hospital are elderly or vulnerable.

The pont I was making was in regard to the sensational headlines surrounding the dramatic increase in Covid cases in Cavan general. The implication being that they had been admitted in the last couple of days because of covid which simply isn't true.

Messi19

Messi19 wrote: »

In terms of track and trace are they still only covering the previous 48 hours pre symptoms or are they actually trying to trace the source?

The resources required to trace the source would be immense given it could have been anytime in the previous 14 days

Rayne Wooney

I was in the city centre the other day around lunch time, and there were approx 50-60 14-18 year olds littered around the immediate vicinity of a Tesco, eating breakfast rolls, in groups of 15,10, 6 no masks obviously.

I just don’t see how we won’t need stop-start lockdowns for another year at least at this rate, but the country will be in financial ruin. What is the plan?

Away With The Fairies

Funsterdelux wrote: »

A good read if one is unsure on airbourne transmission.

The coronavirus is airborne -- what that means for you

I think the HSE is being positive with this one. They don't seem to think it's airborne and won't update their website on how covid is spread.

Away With The Fairies

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I think the HSE is being positive with this one. They don't seem to think it's airborne and won't update their website on how covid is spread.

Exact quote from article:

“According to the CDC, the coronavirus mainly spreads through direct and close contact, such as talking to someone without a mask in close quarters. It sometimes spreads through airborne transmission and occasionally spreads through indirect contact, such as touching infected surfaces and then touching your nose, mouth or eyes.“


Why focus more on where it sometimes spreads rather than where it mainly spreads? Airborne is a red herring, it happens, but it mainly spreads through close contact, and controlling the virus involves eliminating as many of the opportunities for transmission as we can, and the biggest opportunity to do so is with measures to address close contact

igCorcaigh

The airborne issue is an academic thing, has no impact on public health advice.

igCorcaigh

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The airborne issue is an academic thing, has no impact on public health advice.

It has implications for any indoor gathering, schools, offices, restaurants etc. Which is why i believe the Government won't want to admit it. If they do how could they tell teachers and pupils to go spend the day in classrooms.

caveat emptor

Well SAGE committee think schools and universities closing has the largest impact on reducing numbers and the R number.

Very good document detailing what the NPHET equivalent in UK think the impact of various measures has on the epidemic.

No easy options.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf



https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1316137945594822656?s=20

lolie

spookwoman wrote: »

I'll post the numbers here in case people miss em on the old thread if ok.

Sorry if its been posted already but has anyone a link for the site where these images are from?

speckle

lolie wrote: »

Sorry if its been posted already but has anyone a link for the site where these images are from?

That is a boards e state secret.... Spookwoman does a lot of the amazing work collating and doing up these nice and easy charts to read. I know the sources were posted way back but If you ask, maybe again they will magically be re posted.:)

nah have a look down the headings on the left side... you see briefing, testing hub and epidemiological reports etc..

owlbethere

NHPET highlighted a cluster of cases that would highly indicate this virus is airborne. An couple infected with the virus went out socialising a lot. They went to a restaurant and a table of 4 or 6 people that was nearby became infected. I forget the number of people at the next table. 4 staff members also became infected. In some places tables are not spaced out far enough and social distancing measures are poor. The 4 staff members becoming infected is the one that jumps out the most to me. Staff usually have minimal contact with a customer/table. Their interactions are usually brief in nature, yet 4 staff became infected.

ACitizenErased

owlbethere wrote: »

NHPET highlighted a cluster of cases that would highly indicate this virus is airborne. An couple infected with the virus went out socialising a lot. They went to a restaurant and a table of 4 or 6 people that was nearby became infected. I forget the number of people at the next table. 4 staff members also became infected. In some places tables are not spaced out far enough and social distancing measures are poor. The 4 staff members becoming infected is the one that jumps out the most to me. Staff usually have minimal contact with a customer/table. Their interactions are usually brief in nature, yet 4 staff became infected.

Menus? Cutlery, plates, napkins, taking the order, etc. You can't really deduce 'airborne' from that.

speckle

owlbethere wrote: »

NHPET highlighted a cluster of cases that would highly indicate this virus is airborne. An couple infected with the virus went out socialising a lot. They went to a restaurant and a table of 4 or 6 people that was nearby became infected. I forget the number of people at the next table. 4 staff members also became infected. In some places tables are not spaced out far enough and social distancing measures are poor. The 4 staff members becoming infected is the one that jumps out the most to me. Staff usually have minimal contact with a customer/table. Their interactions are usually brief in nature, yet 4 staff became infected.

You also need to look at the ventillation/aircon system too. In fact what I would want is a film of the whole meal etc.

speckle

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Menus? Cutlery, plates, napkins, taking the order, etc. You can't really deduce 'airborne' from that.

That reminds me of, was it a salt shaker very early on in germany?

eagle eye

Well there is a mid-term for schools coming shortly.
We'll see what the numbers are like at the end of that mid-term break and it'll tell a story.
Wouldn't surprise me one bit if the government decide on a lockdown for that period to keep hiding the problem with schools.

Messi19

eagle eye wrote: »

Well there is a mid-term for schools coming shortly.
We'll see what the numbers are like at the end of that mid-term break and it'll tell a story.
Wouldn't surprise me one bit if the government decide on a lockdown for that period to keep hiding the problem with schools.

If the numbers do start to drop it'll be packaged as level 3 finally having an effect and nothing to do with schools being off for a week i.e nothing to see here

douglashyde

MelbourneMan wrote: »

It might be helpful here also perhaps to take a slightly different view of this. There is a general tendency to over simply virus spread into having an impact/not having an impact, or safe/unsafe, or this is safer than that therefore we should not be be prevented from doing this. etc.
But it cannot be looked at in this black and white manner.

The chain of transmission has many many links, and all contribute to the overall spread and R0. Individual factors have greater or lesser contributions, and also have different levels of importance to society in general. It is never true to say schools or pubs are or are not having an impact. Whereever people interface, there is an impact.

The task of the politicians is to weigh up the sum of all factors contributing to spread, and weigh up the the impact on society, health, and the economy of curtailing these activities to varying degrees, and balancing those two elements with the capability of the health service to handle the caseload. The data and advice on the virus element is provided to them by NPHET.

It is not easy I can assure you.

Nobody is 'blaming' pubs as you state it. They are simply a very strong case of the benefits of limiting/closing them, overwhelmingly outweighing the cost.

I hope this clarifies.

Tony?

RGARDINR

Northern Ireland circuit breaker news

douglashyde

Purely anecdotical example. Evidence would suggest schools are not the cause of the spread of this relatively mild virus. Then again, contact tracing is currently appalling, if we are hoping to use such data in a meaningful way.

My girlfriend has two nieces and a cousin (all Northern Ireland), all between the ages of 5-10 and none having any interaction with each other. Two of them have tested positive for COVID because after a close contact test referral (staff members were the spreader and they were told this). Neither children present any symptoms and are both at approx 10 days now since the positive test.

You of course need large data sets but I wouldn't be surprised if kids are highly likely to be asymptomatic and acting as spreaders.

For the record. I'm very much against lockdowns.... just an anecdotical example for 2.24AM on a Tuesday.

JP Liz V1

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Well if someone knows.... are betting shops open and is horse racing still going ahead. Just wondered.

Gyms? Not that I ever crossed their sweaty smelly doors anyway lol.

Listowel Races in Kerry went ahead, wonder how many cases from that, is that where the Gardai and Fire Brigade meet up

fritzelly

RGARDINR wrote: »

Northern Ireland circuit breaker news

And then you read the actual news report and not much changing and basically what's happening here - hardly a circuit breaker

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-northern-ireland-set-to-impose-circuit-breaker-lockdown-for-four-weeks-12103640

(could you not just post the link?)

s1ippy

fritzelly wrote: »

And then you read the actual news report and not much changing and basically what's happening here - hardly a circuit breaker

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-northern-ireland-set-to-impose-circuit-breaker-lockdown-for-four-weeks-12103640

(could you not just post the link?)

They're closing schools.

marno21

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Listowel Races in Kerry went ahead, wonder how many cases from that, is that where the Gardai and Fire Brigade meet up

Nothing to do with the Listowel Races. The cases in the past few weeks have been in the south of the county, there's definitely been an outbreak in Kenmare and it was the worst of the county in the past few weeks.

I don't know where the new hotspots are in the past week or so but they are far too recent to have anything to do with the Listowel Races.

Smegging hell

fritzelly wrote: »

And then you read the actual news report and not much changing and basically what's happening here - hardly a circuit breaker

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-northern-ireland-set-to-impose-circuit-breaker-lockdown-for-four-weeks-12103640

(could you not just post the link?)

Churches can stay open for services, unlike the south - no doubt that was a condition to the DUP agreeing.

Jack1985

s1ippy wrote: »

They're closing schools.

Yep two weeks at midterm, won't be over in four weeks either not long enough.

Goldengirl

Jack1985 wrote: »

Yep two weeks at midterm, won't be over in four weeks either not long enough.

And will be just in time for Halloween parties and Bonfire night parties etc ...might be worse off afterwards?

fritzelly

s1ippy wrote: »

They're closing schools.

For a whole 2 weeks

Isn't the circuit breaker idea a hard sharp lockdown? That's not what they are doing

Ficheall

Any restrictions on them venturing across the border while they're in their circuit breaker? The Gardai won't/can't do anything at all to them, whatever little they might do about Irish residents..

patnor1011

caveat emptor wrote: »

I think that's a good idea but would only work if we enrolled Bill Gates as supreme leader for a period of no more than 2 years. Kinda like that fella George Mitchell. :pac:

That guy? So he can sell our island from underneath our feet? Possibly with us included?
I do not understand this affection with rich people. He is just another billionaire who found loophole how to get even more rich. Instead of paying taxes on money he makes he donate them to companies he outright own or where he is shareholder so in the end he practically donate money to himself. When companies come with product he is making sure it sells so he make multiple times more he "donated". And the circle of fun repeats itself year after year.

https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/bill-gates-investments-covid/

manniot2

Rayne Wooney wrote: »

I was in the city centre the other day around lunch time, and there were approx 50-60 14-18 year olds littered around the immediate vicinity of a Tesco, eating breakfast rolls, in groups of 15,10, 6 no masks obviously.

I just don’t see how we won’t need stop-start lockdowns for another year at least at this rate, but the country will be in financial ruin. What is the plan?

Anyone that trusts that our politicians have a plan is deluded. It’s kick the can down the road, spend billions and then blame someone else when the country is in ruins in a years time.

Wanderer78

patnor1011 wrote:

That guy? So he can sell our island from underneath our feet? Possibly with us included? I do not understand this affection with rich people. He is just another billionaire who found loophole how to get even more rich. Instead of paying taxes on money he makes he donate them to companies he outright own or where he is shareholder so in the end he practically donate money to himself. When companies come with product he is making sure it sells so he make multiple times more he "donated". And the circle of fun repeats itself year after year.

He's trying to make the foundation self sustaining, particularly for after he's gone!

Funsterdelux

caveat emptor wrote: »

Well SAGE committee think schools and universities closing has the largest impact on reducing numbers and the R number.

Very good document detailing what the NPHET equivalent in UK think the impact of various measures has on the epidemic.

No easy options.


https://twitter.com/itosettiMD_MBA/status/1316137945594822656?s=20

Whoops Caveat, didnt see the twitter post as the link didnt expand at first.

caveat emptor

patnor1011 wrote: »

That guy? So he can sell our island from underneath our feet? Possibly with us included?
I do not understand this affection with rich people. He is just another billionaire who found loophole how to get even more rich. Instead of paying taxes on money he makes he donate them to companies he outright own or where he is shareholder so in the end he practically donate money to himself. When companies come with product he is making sure it sells so he make multiple times more he "donated". And the circle of fun repeats itself year after year.

https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/bill-gates-investments-covid/

You are right demote him to health minister. Our plan is clearly not working and is leading to a lot of unemployed people etc and severe strain on hospitals. Couldn't care who was in charge as long has they had the following

• integrity,
• accountability
• an ability to make hard decisions
• empathy for people

Our leaders are in the positions precisely because they don't have these qualities. When asked who is responsible for the impact of a decision they respond "It's the virus' fault".

We have had time, we had a lull but we failed to prepare adequately. Failure to plan, prepare to fail. We are not really making any decisions and approaching our second lockdown. Saying schools will remain open no matter what is extremely fool hardy.

Northern Ireland didn't want to lockdown but when hospitals get overwhelmed your degrees of freedom in what decisions you can make are severely reduced.

Kermit.de.frog

France the latest European country today to announce new measures including likely city curfews. Macron addressing the country later.

On NI it seems half assed, close schools but churches and gyms stay open. That makes no sense to me.

WoollyRedHat

I am fairly confident in predicting that the mid-term break will be extended for 2-3 weeks in Ireland.

kingshankly

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I am fairly confident in predicting that the mid-term break will be extended for 2-3 weeks in Ireland.

Closing Friday up the north

Golfman64

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

France the latest European country today to announce new measures including likely city curfews. Macron addressing the country later.

On NI it seems half assed, close schools but churches and gyms stay open. That makes no sense to me.

In what context does it seem 'half assed'?...perhaps the professionals have reviewed the data from contact tracers and discussed experience in other countries with their international counterparts and determined that churches and gyms do not pose a significant risk of transmission? For example, in the Republic, gyms can only open for individual training and outdoor classes. Additionally, there has been (in the gym I attend anyway) significant investment in staff and products to ensure continual cleaning of all equipment as well as increased distancing between machines and limits on the number of people in weights rooms. Compliance, anecdotally at least, looks to be very high as those there are keen to ensure it can stay open and wipe down equipment diligently after every use. Add all of this to the benefits both physically and mentally of gyms remaining open and their decision actually seems very considered and smart, in my opinion.

Given this pandemic will likely continue into 2021, I think it is important that nuanced and specific restrictions are applied based on facts and research into where the virus is likely to spread as opposed to applying an economic and mental health destroying sledge hammer. After all, we need to learn to 'Live with Covid', right?

copeyhagen

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I am fairly confident in predicting that the mid-term break will be extended for 2-3 weeks in Ireland.

hang on Nostradamus, this was going around watsapp about a month ago.

and i thought they already confirmed they wouldnt be extending. .although that has never stopped the idiots from changing decisions right after making them..

Cluedo Monopoly

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I am fairly confident in predicting that the mid-term break will be extended for 2-3 weeks in Ireland.

You can bet on it. Despite all the denials from the department of Education, it will happen.
It's the worst run department in government. I don't blame the minister for that, it has always been that way.

is_that_so

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

I am fairly confident in predicting that the mid-term break will be extended for 2-3 weeks in Ireland.

Is this a wish, wanting to be proved right or driven by some form of logic? Schools closures are off limit in our COVID strategy so far and the break is a week and a half away anyway. There will be cases but data suggests they are a small part of the current numbers.

is_that_so

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

You can bet on it. Despite all the denials from the department of Education, it will happen.
It's the worst run department in government. I don't blame the minister for that, it has always been that way.

It's a MM/Donnelly/government call. She's just a face and a title.

Eod100

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40064525.html?type=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

is_that_so

Eod100 wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40064525.html?type=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

It's important to flag the possibility nice and early. Being less populated regions makes it a slightly easier decision to make.

Cluedo Monopoly

is_that_so wrote: »

It's a MM/Donnelly/government call. She's just a face and a title.

I know but the story very leaked from the Dept of Education I believe. People thought it was another kite.

Eod100

is_that_so wrote: »

It's important to flag the possibility nice and early. Being less populated regions makes it a slightly easier decision to make.

NPHET are meeting tomorrow. They could in theory reccomend more restrictions then and maybe have them from Friday night when NI may have them from too. Not a huge amount of notice either way. Think Varadkar just wants to be the one breaking the news.

GT89

One of the best speeches I have ever heard. Everything he speaks is the truth. Say what you want about him it's not relevant as all he speaks in this speech are bare facts.
https://youtu.be/EcTZYiId0W4

mloc123

GT89 wrote: »

One of the best speeches I have ever heard. Everything he speaks is the truth. Say what you want about him it's not relevant as all he speaks in this speech are bare facts.
https://youtu.be/EcTZYiId0W4

:rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

In the UK Liverpool ICU use now at capacity so why not...

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1316138659758960641

https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1316289970760568832

Actually 95% as of this morning.

s1ippy

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/many-covid-19-infections-could-be-missed-by-inefficient-swabbing-1.4380013

Great

Boggles

GT89 wrote: »

One of the best speeches I have ever heard. Everything he speaks is the truth. Say what you want about him it's not relevant as all he speaks in this speech are bare facts.
https://youtu.be/EcTZYiId0W4

Is that the little cosplay Nazi?