To Mask or not to two - Mask Megathread cont.

CalamariFritti

I disagree tbh. There was a very strong political element to the mandate and then to the debate about them too. And like it is every time when politics gets involved things get murky and dogmatic. Before we knew it people who questioned were branded selfish and deniers and Trumpists and off we went. Which was a hallmark of all things covid. You either followed unquestionably or you were one of them arseholes, very polarised in no time.

Fathom

A few observations at this point of thread comments.

More than one poster has used the word “proof,” along with its variations. There is no proof in the scientific method, only suggestions from the analysis of data, often informed by theories. These suggestions and theories may be useful towards informing COVID-19 remedy policies (e.g., mask wearing, social distancing, vaccinations, personal hygiene, etc) so long as they continue to receive a preponderance of statistical support that suggests their efficacy and practicality.

A major problem with drawing conclusions at this point, as so many have in this thread, regarding COVID-19 (including mask wearing for Covid in particular) is that there has only been time for short, and now midterm scientific studies. In five and more years from late 2019 there will have been enough time for longitudinal studies to have occurred, hopefully several for comparison purposes to estimate their reliability and validity.

Such longitudinal studies may also be able to suggest potential remedies for evolving virus variations, whereas short and midterm studies may be problematic due to time limitations.

For these reasons, and other methodological considerations (some cited above by other posters), I would be very cautious about using the above meta analysis to suggest that masks may be useful, or not, towards the mitigation of COVID-19. There has not been enough time to longitudinal study COVID-19 in particular.

dalyboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333382#Comment_120333382

At the end of last month a report was concluded by one of the most respected medical organisations. The Cochrane collaboration. Their testing the usefulness of masks in regards to both covid and influenza involved many hundreds of thousands of living subjects.

Below is a link showing their findings.

https://www.city-journal.org/new-cochrane-study-on-masks-and-covid

Btw . The masks testing was in phase well before covid (over 5 years ago).

This subject is now no longer debatable. All that remains is deep apologies and concessions made by anyone who falsely advocated “scientifically” the usefulness of masks (all the way down to 2 year old children in some countries).

dolanbaker

I posted that report a few days ago here and elsewhere, social media censorship has flagged it as "false information".

So there is still no willingness to admit that the mask mandates were useless!

dalyboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333955#Comment_120333955

Yeah. (I’m admittedly late to the party haha) I’ve only just saw it last night. Doctor John Campbell has apologised for advocating the masks during the pandemic (that demonstrates rare humility) in the light of the report.

An amazing scientific study and It’s an outstanding demonstration of base testing.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334050#Comment_120334050

You mean the study that was debated here very recently on the thread? I think it's premature (that's a diplomatic word for it) to jump into a thread, ignoring recent posts, demanding apologies and calling the debate closed.

Here's some of the responses:

One of studies cited showed there was no benefit if staff in a hospital wore a reusable cloth mask as PPE versus flu.

We knew that already. How is that relevant to covid mask mandates?

One of the other studies showed regular mask wearers in Denmark had fewer cases than non mask wearers but due to low level of covid significant case numbers were not hit in the study.

The advice from health authorities was always not to rely on such masks as PPE.

Mask mandates were about reducing transmission from an infected person.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120316906#Comment_120316906

dalyboy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334246#Comment_120334246

I glanced through this thread and noticed a study was conducted and published and discussed here but was unaware of the magnitude of the study.

The Denmark “study” you refer to sounds extraordinary vague , so much so that it comes across as here say.

Have you read the Cochrane report ?

Where is the ambiguity regarding its findings ?

Would you be in any way willing at this stage to even slightly pivot your stance in light of these scientifically population wide findings ?

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334364#Comment_120334364

Not in light of these findings no, for the reasons already mentioned on the thread.

The mask studies referenced in the Cochrane report have almost all been discussed and debated on the thread over its history.

How about engaging with some of the actual comments discussing the relevance of the Cochrane report to mask mandates, both directly on the thread and in the linked article?

For example the Denmark study is listed in the Cochrane report. Yet you think it is 'extraordinary vague'. What does that say about the Cochrane report?

And:

One of studies cited showed there was no benefit if staff in a hospital wore a reusable cloth mask as PPE versus flu.

We knew that already. How is that relevant to covid mask mandates?

Sconsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334364#Comment_120334364

You watched Campbells video on youtube, are you aware that he has been widely discredited and has repeatedly misrepresented data, his opinions are highly suspect.

The Cochrane review has also been questioned, certainly the validity of it in terms of determining if masks reduce the risk of transmission https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/do-masks-work#%C2%A7then-the-cochrane-review-was-published-and-took-social-media-by-storm

Fathom

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120333903#Comment_120333903

To reiterate, I was discussing COVID-19 “in particular” and masking. When doing so, studies conducted before COVID-19 (i.e., before late 2019) would not specifically pertain to COVID-19. Consequently, there has only been time for short and midterm studies of this unique virus, not longitudinal studies of 5 or more years. Such longitudinal studies are necessary, especially for a virus that has continued to evolve with multiple variations.

Consequently, the Cochrane meta analysis of masking you cited did not include a longitudinal study of COVID-19 and masking “in particular,” as there has not been enough time to do so. Therefore, caution should be exercised when attempting to draw conclusions about the efficacy of masking for COVID-19 today.

Furthermore, did the Cochrane meta analysis include some studies of masking that examined influenza and not include COVID-19? Further, did some of these studies occur before the discovery of COVID-19?

Contemporary scientific categorization suggests that COVID-19 is not an influenza, and that there may be some difference in vectors of transmission. To what extent may these differences affect mask efficacy for COVID-19 “in particular?” Once again, caution should be exercised before the results of longitudinal studies have been made available for COVID-19 in particular.

Additionally, your conclusively stated comment that “This subject is no longer debatable.” This statement fails one of the most important protocols of the scientific method codified by Karl Popper, et al. Scientific theories and methods must always be subject to falsifiability. Must always be subject to scientific challenge, and may be considered useful so long as the preponderance of evidence suggests support. Anything less may exhibit an act of faith, and not science.

Beasty

TomSweeney threadban lifted

dolanbaker

Great to see the ending of a mandate that was only symbolic at best " to be seen to be doing something", even the article acknowledges that they were mostly a complete waste of time.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451129#Comment_120451129

What the article actually says:

Lead author Dr Ben Patterson said this did not mean masks are worthless against Omicron.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451129#Comment_120451129

It's not symbolic, and it's on a case by case basis for hospitals. I suspect many will keep masks as they reduce the spread of (respiratory) diseases that are predominantly spread by aerosols and droplets from the mouth/nose. Which makes sense in a hospital environment.

On a side note, it's very telling and I'm not the slightest bit surprised to see you also harbour these views.

Gael23

staff might but patients can no longer be forced to.

Why not until April 19th though?

corcaigh07

The HSE are a law upon themselves, there is no legal requirement to wear a mask in a hospital, right now. They have been playing dress up since the mandate was dropped and we just go along with it.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451656#Comment_120451656

Does the HSE need such a legal requirement in only to enforce such rules in its own hospitals? I would imagine they are a law unto themselves and do not necessarily need a government mandate in order to require masks, or visitor restrictions etc etc

CalamariFritti

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120338705#Comment_120338705

Regardless the Cochrane meta study concludes that it could not find any conclusive evidence that masks had any measurable effect in the public realm.

There were attempts in finding contradictions in that and even claims that this core message of Cochrane was later retracted - which it was not.

No conclusive evidence could be found.

Which is not the same as saying masks may not work to some degree in certain scenarios. But it certainly is a far cry from 'masks work, case closed' which seemed to be sponsored consensus in here for a long time. In fact quite the opposite.

dolanbaker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451249#Comment_120451249

On another side note, I am also not in the least surprised that you are still standing up for the draconian measures that have since been shown to have been mostly useless, like most of the other anticovid measure.

But anyway, they're soon to be gone! better late than never!

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451763#Comment_120451763

Wearing masks during a pandemic of a infectious virus is not "draconian", it's basic common sense.

I suspect many hospitals will probably keep mask rules, to reduce infection within the hospital and to better protect at-risk patients in general.

greencap

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120317272#Comment_120317272

Because there was no real downside, and society was taking a swing at a helpful goal.

The only people who I saw being called arseholes were not those who just happened to not have a mask to hand, but rather it was those who made a grand theatrical production out of a non issue. Those comparing being asked to wear a mask during a pandemic to various massively tragic historical dictatorships.

There are parallels between covid masks and an authoritatian reign in the same way there are parallels between a kinder egg and dinner at the ritz.

Everybody above 14 could see those laughably lame parallels and dismiss them.

It was the ego driven clowns who thought that they alone could see something that nobody else could, and then went on to use this nonsense as their soapbox, that were called arseholes by those few who could be bothered.

dolanbaker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451818#Comment_120451818

If we were talking about a virus like the "Spanish Flu" or MERS, Ebola etc, then I would agree, but covid was nothing like as deadly for healthy people.

So I stand by what I said.

Sconsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451676#Comment_120451676

You either did not really look at the Cochrane study or you are incapable of basic comprehension. Do you agree or disagree that masks can reduce the risk of transmission of the Corona virus? Cochrane was looking at 'can a mask protect me', not 'do they reduce the risk of transmission', and even in that limited respect the data it used is still dodgy.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451988#Comment_120451988

Covid appears to be far more infectious than any of them. Which is why masks were mandated to protect vulnerable people from infectious 'healthy' people.

Sconsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451129#Comment_120451129

Am really glad that masks have done their job reducing the risk of spread of the virus, and helped get us to where we are now.

Dohnjoe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451988#Comment_120451988

Covid killed over 6 million people in just two years and it's estimated to have killed 80,000 health professionals. The key concern was not so much the deaths, which were still serious, but more the critical strain it was putting on national health systems and staff. ICU's were filling up, city hospitals in certain countries were having to ship patients to country hospitals, in India they ran out of oxygen resulting in deaths.

You're just looking at the situation now and applying hindsight. In 2020, it was a new disease, it was spreading rapidly and people were dying. We didn't have the information we have now, we didn't have the resistances, we didn't have the vaccines we have now.

Therefore we took measures, such as masks, which were a no-brainer and a pretty minor inconvenience.

Sconsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120451988#Comment_120451988

Jumps for the mask if he thinks there is something floating around that might directly impact him.....claims masks are 'symbolic' if he's happy that he won't get too sick from Covid. Kind of all about you really isn't it?

CalamariFritti

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120452055#Comment_120452055

You must be kidding me. You go to the studie's 'frontpage' and read the clarifying statement by Cochrane's editor in chief and it literally says the exact opposite of what you're throwing at me. That it tried to attempt finding evidence about effects on spread in the public realm and couldn't. But can make no statement about individual effects and risks.

Next time before you come all high and mighty and pontificate about people's ability for 'basic comprehension' you better get your own in order.

I mean how did you even get to the conclusion? It makes no sense whatsoever if you think about it for a second even. How could a meta study that essentially collates studies on case spread in masked scenarios vs non-masks scenarios make statements or even attempt to make statements about individual risk? It always had to be about wider effects in the public realm. And then to throw 'comprehension' at me. Some neck on you, I give you that.

Sconsey

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120453744#Comment_120453744

I will ask the same question again that you seem to be avoiding: Do you agree or disagree that masks can reduce the risk of transmission of the Corona virus?

How did I get to my conclusion? Well it is assessing how effective masks are at preventing infection, not how effective masks are at reducing the risk of transmission. There is a big difference and the main reason I can't understand why people point to Cochrane and say 'masks don't work', most don't even know what they mean when they say 'dont work'.

Another reason is it is based on Influenza trials, which is a less transmissible virus than Covid so is going to skew the results. A less infectious virus is harder to detect than a highly infectious one. The results are completely different if you remove the influenza trials from the study. Quote from the front page of the study that you read:

Many studies were conducted during non‐epidemic influenza periods. Several were conducted during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and others in epidemic influenza seasons up to 2016. Therefore, many studies were conducted in the context of lower respiratory viral circulation and transmission compared to COVID‐19.

Two is the number, only two of the nine trials were for Covid, and both of those trials are weighted towards reduced risk (a measurable effect). Add in the other seven influenza trials and the overall weight goes down which is what the Cochrane study is concluding. So Cochranes conclusions are heavily weighted to Influenza outbreaks, not a Covid pandemic, two very different scenarios.

Thats how I got to my conclusion. Happy to hear your thoughts.

odyssey06

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120453744#Comment_120453744

How does the wearing of cloth masks by healthcare support staff to as PPE protection versus flu have anything to say about 'wider effects in the public realm'? It wasnt tracking case spread in the public realm. It wasnt setup to track transmission from infected people which is why masks were mandated.

Its one of the studies Cochrane included.

Yet you seem to think that but dont explain how. Or you are deliberately misrepresenting its findings.