Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Beasty

Part XXI was the fastest moving thread since Part XV, but that was 4 months ago

Previous threads:

Thread I
Thread II
Thread III
Thread IV
Thread V
Thread VI
Thread VII
Thread VIII
Thread IX
Thread X
Thread XI
Thread XII
Thread XIII
Thread XIV
Thread XV
Thread XVI
Thread XVII
Thread XVIII
Thread XIX
Thread XX
Thread XXI

The daily numbers

Mod warnings:

1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
3. It is against site rules to seek or offer any medical advice. Please do not post here about your symptoms asking what to do. Contact your doctor by telephone and they can advise you as appropriate
4. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

In terms of thread content:

• Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
• Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
• Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
• Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
• If the likes of the HSE have a verified Twitter account we can assume what they post is accurate. Randomers on here or elsewhere cannot be considered "official" or "reliable" sources
• If people wish to flout the restriction rules that is up to them. They cannot complain at the consequences, be that direct action from the authorities, exposure in Social Media (not here) or being shunned by locals, friends, family etc. If they post about it here, or encourage others to flout the rules, trying to appear macho, or thinking they are above the rules or simply being a smart arse, posting privileges will be removed
• If you don't want to see discussion about Trump perhaps stay clear of this thread between the hours of 22:00 and 01:00. This is a thread for "breaking news" so please do not expect posters to discuss things happening "now" in other threads. It's not discouraged but equally posters expect to discuss such issues in this thread (added 14/04/20)

And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Beasty

In my life I've never stopped
to worry about a thing
Opened up and shouted out
and never tried to see
Wondering if I'd done wrong
Will this depression last for long
Won't you tell me
Where have all the good times gone
Where have all the good times gone
Where have all the good times gone

owlbethere

The other thread came to an end. I can't quote.

I'm still following the guidelines. Iamwhoiam sums it up well for me.

Hope to eventually see the following

It's good to see you
It's good to see you smile
It's good to see you
It's good to see you laugh
It's good to see you
It's good to see you talk
It's good to see you
It's good to see you laugh
It's good to see you smiling one more time
Here come the good times
For a change for a change

Gruffalux

Oh no. You should put in the good joke about what is in the mask.

harr

Just seen a post from a local politician or former counsellor that 40 Spanish students have flown into Ireland yesterday and are staying with local families in and around the Athy area as part of a student exchange.
This is absolutely crazy if true . Nearly sure Spain isn’t on green list and kildare on lockdown

celt262

harr wrote: »

Just seen a post from a local politician or former counsellor that 40 Spanish students have flown into Ireland yesterday and are staying with local families in and around the Athy area as part of a student exchange.
This is absolutely crazy if true . Nearly sure Spain isn’t on green list and kildare on lockdown

Wouldnt surprise me one bit.

Quantum Erasure

At this stage, nothing would surprise me.

khalessi

harr wrote: »

Just seen a post from a local politician or former counsellor that 40 Spanish students have flown into Ireland yesterday and are staying with local families in and around the Athy area as part of a student exchange.
This is absolutely crazy if true . Nearly sure Spain isn’t on green list and kildare on lockdown

Sure they will probably be popping into the local school for some school exchange experience.:rolleyes:

Fr_Dougal

harr wrote: »

Just seen a post from a local politician or former counsellor that 40 Spanish students have flown into Ireland yesterday and are staying with local families in and around the Athy area as part of a student exchange.
This is absolutely crazy if true . Nearly sure Spain isn’t on green list and kildare on lockdown

Athy? Those poor students.

Thierry12

harr wrote: »

Just seen a post from a local politician or former counsellor that 40 Spanish students have flown into Ireland yesterday and are staying with local families in and around the Athy area as part of a student exchange.
This is absolutely crazy if true . Nearly sure Spain isn’t on green list and kildare on lockdown

Politicans looking for a new headline

ninebeanrows

We have turned the corner

Jim_Hodge

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

We have turned the corner

And turned in to a cul de sac.

Micky 32

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

And turned in to a pul de sac.

But one can always turn around ;-)

harr

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Athy? Those poor students.

Of all places

SeaBreezes

https://twitter.com/nanogenomic/status/1297302459258474497?s=19

Interesting discussion between immunologists in regards immunity and Tcell function.

podgeandrodge

Thinking about the golf gate thing and the 80 people, am I right in saying any restaurant is limited to 50 people? Surely the size / sq.footage is relevant? If you have a large restaurant capable of holding 200 you're limited to 50 in same way as a smaller restaurant capable of holding 50 is limited to 50????

Oranage2

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Thinking about the golf gate thing and the 80 people, am I right in saying any restaurant is limited to 50 people? Surely the size / sq.footage is relevant? If you have a large restaurant capable of holding 200 you're limited to 50 in same way as a smaller restaurant capable of holding 50 is limited to 50????

Yeah that made no sense, a gym class using a sports hall should have the same as an exercise class in a living room.

Ger Roe

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Thinking about the golf gate thing and the 80 people, am I right in saying any restaurant is limited to 50 people? Surely the size / sq.footage is relevant? If you have a large restaurant capable of holding 200 you're limited to 50 in same way as a smaller restaurant capable of holding 50 is limited to 50????

Yes that contradiction has always applied - it is however irrelevant to the current Golfgate debate.

The rules are the rules and the rationale has been explained many times by DOH. The same argument has been put forward for sports events, but the low limit has been justified by highlighting the risks of association before and after events, if higher numbers attend.

You may have an issue with the rules, but you should not break them, especially if you have had any hand act or part in making them.

ACitizenErased

harr wrote: »

Just seen a post from a local politician or former counsellor that 40 Spanish students have flown into Ireland yesterday and are staying with local families in and around the Athy area as part of a student exchange.
This is absolutely crazy if true . Nearly sure Spain isn’t on green list and kildare on lockdown

International students continue as normal no? They have to quarantine like everyone else

Eod100

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Thinking about the golf gate thing and the 80 people, am I right in saying any restaurant is limited to 50 people? Surely the size / sq.footage is relevant? If you have a large restaurant capable of holding 200 you're limited to 50 in same way as a smaller restaurant capable of holding 50 is limited to 50????

Yes afaik with max tables of 6

Plumbthedepths

ACitizenErased wrote: »

International students continue as normal no? They have to quarantine like everyone else

Yes but if they are staying with host families wouldn't the restricting ones movement for 2 weeks also apply to the host family as they are a close contact.

Oranage2

I wonder what the government plan is after the schools open. The idea of reducing it to near zero is long sailed at this point. Is it just a hope that hospitalizations don't increase and cause havoc to our already poor health system?

ACitizenErased

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Yes but if they are staying with host families wouldn't the restricting ones movement for 2 weeks also apply to the host family as they are a close contact.

Yeah they should restrict their movements also. To be fair, they have to sign up for it, so whatever extra steps need to be taken is on their own back.

MD1990

Does anyone think the virus strength has waned?

I know it has hitting younger people mostly now but hospital cases around Europe are not really increasing in any way like back in March.

Maybe though more older people are cocooning

caveat emptor

I see Phil Hogan is really sorry as opposed to being half sorry yesterday. Must have been hard for him to increase his apology level. Fair play to him.

caveat emptor

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1297490954245615616?s=21

Micky 32

MD1990 wrote: »

Does anyone think the virus strength has waned?

I can hear the guns loading, asking that on here you’ll be sent to the gallows.....

Interestingly though the worldometer graphs deaths/cases seem to have peaked and showing signs of falling but i’m sure there’s a cohort that will be along shortly to do their best and pull something out of their asses to come up with an excuse as to why.

podgeandrodge

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1297490954245615616?s=21

All this being entirely wrong and all that, but I'm thinking that 80 people ain't having any more impact on the spread of virus than 50. It's all makey up stuff.

I see he is "reporting to the EU Commission on these matters" - but a lot of the other EU countries don't have a 80 limit. It's not consistent rules to be broken.

Renjit

ACitizenErased wrote: »

International students continue as normal no? They have to quarantine like everyone else

September intake. While I see many deferring the admit to next year but we will see influx of international students. Not a good time, Aug-Sep.

Polar101

MD1990 wrote: »

Does anyone think the virus strength has waned?

I know it has hitting younger people mostly now but hospital cases around Europe are not really increasing in any way like back in March.

Maybe though more older people are cocooning

It's a combination of things. Younger people affected, less nursing homes hit, more asymptomatic cases detected (didn't really detect any in March/April). And no exponential growth of cases.

The situation is different to March.

Plumbthedepths

MD1990 wrote: »

Does anyone think the virus strength has waned?

What have you done?

brickster69

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1297490954245615616?s=21

He does not even understand the meaning of a " fulsome apology " :eek:

is_that_so

brickster69 wrote: »

He does not even understand the meaning of a " fulsome apology " :eek:

Is that one that involves the word "resign"?!

bb1234567

MD1990 wrote: »

Does anyone think the virus strength has waned?

I know it has hitting younger people mostly now but hospital cases around Europe are not really increasing in any way like back in March.

Maybe though more older people are cocooning

Like obviously it appears that way at a very cursory glance .. but the exact same trend happened in the US and there was talk of the virus weakening and then the deaths rose to expected levels as occurred previously

BringBackMick

Jesus Jim OCallaghan on Radio 1 has just spoken sense!

I haven't heard a politician speak such common sense in yonks.

I am actually taken aback

seanb85

MD1990 wrote: »

Does anyone think the virus strength has waned?

I know it has hitting younger people mostly now but hospital cases around Europe are not really increasing in any way like back in March.

Maybe though more older people are cocooning

There are literally thousands of scientists across the world analysing samples and tracking mutations. Nothing scientific so far suggests the the virus has in any way weakened. The only significant mutation that I am aware of made it more infectious (but potentially more susceptible to a vaccine).

There will also be no hive mentality. If a mutation occurs that results in a weaker strain it will emerge at first in a certain geographic location, it will not suddenly weaken worldwide.

Micky 32

bb1234567 wrote: »

Like obviously it appears that way at a very cursory glance .. but the exact same trend happened in the US and there was talk of the virus weakening and then the deaths rose to expected levels as occurred previously

Also worth noting, deaths on their “second wave” never reached their daily 2500 like at the begining.

It seems that cases in the USA are dropping, good to see.

podgeandrodge

seanb85 wrote: »

There will also be no hive mentality. If a mutation occurs that results in a weaker strain it will emerge at first in a certain geographic location, it will not suddenly weaken worldwide.

Thanks for clearing that up Doc. I had read that there could be many mutations arising in many locations many of which may be weaker.

Plumbthedepths

BringBackMick wrote: »

Jesus Jim OCallaghan on Radio 1 has just spoken sense!

I haven't heard a politician speak such common sense in yonks.

I am actually taken aback

What did he say?

polesheep

seanb85 wrote: »

There are literally thousands of scientists across the world analysing samples and tracking mutations. Nothing scientific so far suggests the the virus has in any way weakened. The only significant mutation that I am aware of made it more infectious (but potentially more susceptible to a vaccine).

There will also be no hive mentality. If a mutation occurs that results in a weaker strain it will emerge at first in a certain geographic location, it will not suddenly weaken worldwide.

Yes, but it takes a long time to gather the data. It is likely that the effects will be seen before the proof.

polesheep

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up Doc. I had read that there could be many mutations arising in many locations many of which may be weaker.

Both of you are correct.

ACitizenErased

Was only in the news recently that the European strain was found in Malaysia - it’s more infectious but not necessarily as deadly

BringBackMick

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

What did he say?

To look at the bigger picture about Phil Hogan and not shoot ourselves in the foot.

To look at the bigger picture with COVID and put out a clear message that we must live alongside COVID and not have kneejerk reactions every evening when the COVID case numbers are released and to have a clear roadmap and objectives.

Micky 32

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up Doc. I had read that there could be many mutations arising in many locations many of which may be weaker.

Aye, we have so many experts on here.

polesheep

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Thanks for clearing that up Doc. I had read that there could be many mutations arising in many locations many of which may be weaker.

BringBackMick wrote: »

To look at the bigger picture about Phil Hogan and not shoot ourselves in the foot.

To look at the bigger picture with COVID and put out a clear message that we must live alongside COVID and not have kneejerk reactions every evening when the COVID case numbers are released and to have a clear roadmap and objectives.

I think we can expect to hear more comments such as this.

seanb85

Micky 32 wrote: »

Aye, we have so many experts on here.

Never claimed to be an expert, but there are lots of resources out there where the information can be found

https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-08-14

polesheep

BringBackMick wrote: »

To look at the bigger picture about Phil Hogan and not shoot ourselves in the foot.

To look at the bigger picture with COVID and put out a clear message that we must live alongside COVID and not have kneejerk reactions every evening when the COVID case numbers are released and to have a clear roadmap and objectives.

I wonder could we be seeing the beginning of a heave within FF?

is_that_so

polesheep wrote: »

I wonder could we be seeing the beginning of a heave within FF?

Not yet, in the second half of government.

Irish Times

Mass testing would allow us to fully reopen the economy
Get the whole population tested every two weeks, avail of the new saliva kits and invest in the science that allows for self-testing without the need for laboratory access

Chris Johns

Scientists rightly say say there is lots we don’t know about Covid-19. That doesn’t mean we know nothing or that we have learned nothing. For instance, something has changed between the first wave and the recent viral resurgence: fewer people are getting very sick, being admitted to hospital or dying.

We don’t know whether these better outcomes are permanent or why they have occurred. Leading causal candidate is the age-profile of people getting the disease: young people, typically, don’t get very sick.

Another factor seems to be “learning by doing” by the medics. Even if you get admitted to intensive care, recent research shows the chances of dying, in some countries, are reduced compared to last March and April - that’s a result across all age cohorts. Better treatment, including drugs, appears to help.

More speculatively, one or two scientists wonder whether the virus is mutating into something more benign. That’s a minority view, based on the observation that some viruses do become less lethal for good Darwinian reasons: pathogens don’t survive if they kill their hosts.

We know that some medics don’t like speculation. In response to the slightly better news, one prominent UK doctor was quoted saying he doesn’t want the ideas about young people, better healthcare or a possibly mutating virus to lull the public into a false sense of security.

Fair enough. We all need to be on our guard against reckless behaviour. Ireland’s 80-strong new members of the Dominic Cummings Other-People’s-Rules Club have provoked an understandable reaction. But there is a difference between sensible rules and moral high horses.

There is also a difference between information sharing and secrecy. Could it be that we won’t understand the science and therefore make bad decisions? Proper communication by experts to non-experts has an obvious role to play here. Do governments not want us to know that scientists disagree?

I have a suspicion that behind some of the scientific prognostications about how we should behave lies insufficient acknowledgement of the uncertainties and the alternatives. Lockdowns, whether local or national, will, it is true, suppress the virus but no economy, not even New Zealand, has been able to fully reopen in a completely sustained way. At least not without seeing the virus return.

One myth that I hope has been seen off is the idea that if we eliminate the virus completely via a four to six week total lockdown we can then go back to normal, at least economically.

One of the problems for behaviour, good or bad, occurs when we are denied access to the full scientific discussion. What is allowed into the public domain is a little data and a lot of instruction. The language from on high is often similar to that of a parent to a child. When the messages become confused - or even contradictory - and we know little about their scientific basis, it’s no wonder that many people decide to find out for themselves, possibly accessing fake news, and then make their own decisions. Good or bad.

Plenty of data suggests beaches, demonstrations and outdoor sport are not risky activities. They are not risk free, but just much less risky than indoor activities. The enclosed bar or house party afterwards represents a much higher risk. It makes more sense to share the science: tell us its OK to watch the game - appropriately distanced - but not to go to the party afterwards.

Our tendency to moralise, judge and curtain-twitch leads straight to lockdown. All kinds of behavioural restrictions are the only policies available to us. If they come at an economic cost then so be it. An important point, an important scientific truth, needs to be made here: one day, the money will run out.

There is more “free” money available to the government than we previously thought. We don’t know how much but it is not limitless. It would be a bad idea to try really hard to reach that limit. Shut down the economy again and we may well find it.

I cannot understand why there is not more scientific push for mass testing. Get the whole population tested every two weeks. Avail of the new saliva kits. Invest, massively, in the science that allows for self-testing without the need for laboratory access. Mass testing, with proper tracing and isolation, means more-or-less full economic reopening. At a fraction of the cost of lockdowns.

Mistakes have been made in many countries. In the UK, a hapless cabinet can be described as a collection of sandbags strategically placed to absorb the criticism heading towards Boris Johnson and Cummings. Years of austerity led to diminished state capacity to do anything.

A culture of secrecy contributes to systemic groupthink: too many careers have been built via agreeing with the boss. Socially well-connected amateurs run education quangos and public health agencies. Many countries have similar, overlapping pathologies.

Economics is about decision making under uncertainty. Good economic outcomes usually result when as much light as possible is shone at the uncertainty. And when people have enough information to make their own minds up - and to agree that public policy rules and recommendations make sense. Let’s see the full details of the scientific debate. Let’s do mass testing.

The above is probably many months/next year away. Like everything about this stupid virus