Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

nacho libre

Unless this split that has just occurred in the strat vortex somehow shakes things up in our favour, we are unlikely to see major upgrades next week . The fall out from the SSW have been factored into the model output at this stage, if we were going to do well out of it we would be clearly seeing it in the output by now, but we are not.
As per the UKMO guidance, the best we can hope for is the cold to push far enough south at times for us to get snow from northerlies, or frontal situations.

Reversal

The only thing that is certain is uncertainty and that is truer now than ever.

What we do know, is that the tropospheric pattern is modelled to be very disturbed and amplified over the northern hemisphere as a whole, as far as the medium range NWP models can show. The NH pattern as a whole is actually all over the place from run to run, HLBs popping up everywhere, bits if vortex going east to west and west to east. It's a mess, with very little consistency in the predicted long wave pattern.

No deep cold consistently modelled at the moment. And mild/cool is always more likely than deep cold than Ireland. But I wouldn't rule out anything in the next 6 weeks.

Honestly this place has been worse than netweather with the amount of toys and towels being thrown this week. I'm certainly not going to say a big freeze is definitely on the way, but the overall predicted pattern leaves many doors open.

I'm not sure if it's just temper tantrums, but the certainty that some on here are speaking with, is just foolish.

nacho libre

Reversal wrote: »

The only thing that is certain is uncertainty and that is truer now than ever.

What we do know, is that the tropospheric pattern is modelled to be very disturbed and amplified over the northern hemisphere as a whole, as far as the medium range NWP models can show. The NH pattern as a whole is actually all over the place from run to run, HLBs popping up everywhere, bits if vortex going east to west and west to east. It's a mess, with very little consistency in the predicted long wave pattern.

No deep cold consistently modelled at the moment. And mild/cool is always more likely than deep cold than Ireland. But I wouldn't rule out anything in the next 6 weeks.

Honestly this place has been worse than netweather with the amount of toys and towels being thrown this week. I'm certainly not going to say a big freeze is definitely on the way, but the overall predicted pattern leaves many doors open.

I'm not sure if it's just temper tantrums, but the certainty that some on here are speaking with, is just foolish.

I assume this is directed at me. I think it's more so about being realistic. There are changes from run to run, but we are not seeing any outputs that suggest we are going in the freezer. All I see is what the UK Met office has generally predicted; an ebbing and flowing between competing airmasses with England and Scotland most likely being the right side of the boundary. We , if we are lucky, could tap into colder air at times which could bring about frontal snow situations. I want a deep freeze as much as anyone here, but it looks very unlikely within the next 12 days. Who knows after that.

I can't wait for Joe Bastardi's update video tomorrow on weatherbell.

nacho libre

Just looking at some old epic forecasts on you tube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LB0IsvJlXVk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6DuebHliY

Good old Ian,he was one of my favourite forecasters, but marks must be taken off him for not being a snow fan. He should be saying the best of the snow, not the worst:D

bosco12345

nacho libre wrote: »

I assume this is directed at me. I think it's more so about being realistic. There are changes from run to run, but we are not seeing any outputs that suggest we are going in the freezer. All I see is what the UK Met office has generally predicted; an ebbing and flowing between competing airmasses with England and Scotland most likely being the right side of the boundary. We , if we are lucky, could tap into colder air at times which could bring about frontal snow situations. I want a deep freeze as much as anyone here, but it looks very unlikely within the next 12 days. Who knows after that.

I think people need to lower their expectations a little. When do we ever go into a deep freeze? It's very rare and is becoming increasingly rarer. The last proper cold spell we had was BFTE 3 years ago and before that was march 2013

Slashermcguirk

Not a great winter by any stretch but it has already delivered a few days of lying snow for most counties. Plenty of very cold days, much better than last couple of winters

Gonzo wrote: »

It's been the best since 2018 without a doubt in terms of interest but has failed to deliver anything noteworthy to Ireland up to now. Hopefully the models will be changed in 3/4 days to something much more interesting, unstable and longer term in terms of cold and snow. Next week's cold spell has all the similarities of the last week of December in that it will be mostly dry once we get the push of mild and wet weather out of the way early next week. Showers will be mainly of cold rain and some hill snow mainly for Northern Ireland. After a few days we get the push of mild air from the south-west again so we do need some major upgrades in the models over the next week.

Nqp15hhu

I have snow showers down for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday!

sryanbruen

bosco12345 wrote: »

I think people need to lower their expectations a little. When do we ever go into a deep freeze? It's very rare and is becoming increasingly rarer. The last proper cold spell we had was BFTE 3 years ago and before that was march 2013

I continue to lower them every year so my rate of disappointment isn't as high although a lot of the time the weather seems to even go below those expectations (looking at you Summer 2020 :rolleyes: ).

As for the winter itself of what we've seen thus far, certainly not one I'll reminisce about to my grandchildren or talk about for years to come but for what it has brought, it has given some good moments like I quite enjoyed the early December northerly with snow in the mountains followed by a day of freezing fog on 6th December (my favourite winter day in a while) and freezing rain on 7th albeit not a lot. Had good sunshine during the mild spell so wasn't all bad. Christmas Eve was fabulous. Waking up to a dusting on New Year's Eve was a nice surprise and another dusting on 7 January. The morning of 9 January was fantastic too.

The one moment I'll take away from this winter is 6th December. In recent years, I have noted quite a lack of foggy days or even mornings here and it was unique to see the fog persisting all day. In fact, I seen a fair few fog outbreaks in late November and early December that I enjoyed. It was the most fog outbreaks I had seen in a long time - more a reflection of how lacking fog has been I think because it wasn't anything notable.

I'd love a severe cold spell with guaranteed decent covering of snow to sea level as much as the next guy but I like almost all kinds of weather and make the most of any interesting weather we get now. It hasn't been the best winter in the world neither has it been the worst.

Nqp15hhu

bosco12345 wrote: »

I think people need to lower their expectations a little. When do we ever go into a deep freeze? It's very rare and is becoming increasingly rarer. The last proper cold spell we had was BFTE 3 years ago and before that was march 2013

Usually I receive at least a few days of 5cm + lying snow.

So that’s what I expect and I don’t think that, that is unrealistic.

Gonzo

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I have snow showers down for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday!

you might get lucky but it is looking extremely marginal and limited to coastal parts of the north and west.

Wednesday looks mostly rain/sleet showers.



Perhaps more wintry on Thursday but a wet mix near the coasts.



Friday looks a mix of cold rain, sleet and hill snow showers.



After Tuesday's rain clears it looks mostly dry for much of the country aside from some showers along western and northern coasts. Looks more like rain showers for the west. The Donegal hills may see some snow at times.

Saturday looks the coldest day but it looks like it will be mostly dry everywhere by then.

Milder weather takes over again from Sunday with lows in off the Atlantic.

Temperatures generally between 3 and 7C during this cold spell, mildest nearest the coasts along the west and north.







This looks even more marginal than the first half of the recent cold spell and once again precipitation looks limited from current GFS output.

Tyrone212

I had a bit of snow first week of December or around then? And since the 27th December I've had snow falling on 5 6 different days and a covering for a couple of days. Nothing spectacular but always nice to see.

Slashermcguirk

Important to note that while summer 2020 was poor, March to early June was phenomenal!! When we had a run of 3 months of consecutive dry and sunny weather it was always going to be a tall order to have it last into summer too. May and early June in particular was stunning

sryanbruen wrote: »

I continue to lower them every year so my rate of disappointment isn't as high although a lot of the time the weather seems to even go below those expectations (looking at you Summer 2020 :rolleyes: ).

As for the winter itself of what we've seen thus far, certainly not one I'll reminisce about to my grandchildren or talk about for years to come but for what it has brought, it has given some good moments like I quite enjoyed the early December northerly with snow in the mountains followed by a day of freezing fog on 6th December (my favourite winter day in a while) and freezing rain on 7th albeit not a lot. Had good sunshine during the mild spell so wasn't all bad. Christmas Eve was fabulous. Waking up to a dusting on New Year's Eve was a nice surprise and another dusting on 7 January. The morning of 9 January was fantastic too.

The one moment I'll take away from this winter is 6th December. In recent years, I have noted quite a lack of foggy days or even mornings here and it was unique to see the fog persisting all day. In fact, I seen a fair few fog outbreaks in late November and early December that I enjoyed. It was the most fog outbreaks I had seen in a long time - more a reflection of how lacking fog has been I think because it wasn't anything notable.

I'd love a severe cold spell with guaranteed decent covering of snow to sea level as much as the next guy but I like almost all kinds of weather and make the most of any interesting weather we get now. It hasn't been the best winter in the world neither has it been the worst.

bosco12345

sryanbruen wrote: »

I continue to lower them every year so my rate of disappointment isn't as high although a lot of the time the weather seems to even go below those expectations (looking at you Summer 2020 :rolleyes: ).

As for the winter itself of what we've seen thus far, certainly not one I'll reminisce about to my grandchildren or talk about for years to come but for what it has brought, it has given some good moments like I quite enjoyed the early December northerly with snow in the mountains followed by a day of freezing fog on 6th December (my favourite winter day in a while) and freezing rain on 7th albeit not a lot. Had good sunshine during the mild spell so wasn't all bad. Christmas Eve was fabulous. Waking up to a dusting on New Year's Eve was a nice surprise and another dusting on 7 January. The morning of 9 January was fantastic too.

The one moment I'll take away from this winter is 6th December. In recent years, I have noted quite a lack of foggy days or even mornings here and it was unique to see the fog persisting all day. In fact, I seen a fair few fog outbreaks in late November and early December that I enjoyed. It was the most fog outbreaks I had seen in a long time - more a reflection of how lacking fog has been I think because it wasn't anything notable.

I'd love a severe cold spell with guaranteed decent covering of snow to sea level as much as the next guy but I like almost all kinds of weather and make the most of any interesting weather we get now. It hasn't been the best winter in the world neither has it been the worst.

Absolutely agree with this. It's been a great winter so far, all that was missing was a decent snow event but I'm certainly not complaining

Tyrone212

Does anyone know if met eireann have a data base were you can check how many yellow etc warnings they have issued for each weather type since it launched?

Donegal Storm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Not a great winter by any stretch but it has already delivered a few days of lying snow for most counties. Plenty of very cold days, much better than last couple of winters

Last winter had about 10-14 days with some degree of lying snow here in Letterkenny, this year there's been one morning with a brief dusting (that I wasn't even here for!) so no comparison so far. Plenty of time ahead still but so far other than a few nice frosty days it's been a totally forgettable winter.

Still, I'd be surprised if there's not at least a minor snow event or two between now and late February

Tyrone212

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Last winter had about 10-14 days with some degree of lying snow here in Letterkenny, this year there's been one morning with a brief dusting (that I wasn't even here for!) so no comparison so far. Plenty of time ahead still but so far other than a few nice frosty days it's been a totally forgettable winter.

Still, I'd be surprised if there's not at least a minor snow event or two between now and late February

I saw snow pics in donegal over the last couple of weeks. Did letterkenny miss out?

Billcarson

Think this winter up to this point so far is on par with what winter 08/09 was at this point aswell. Not great but definitely better them many recent winters as was the case that winter too.
Now can we get a cold spell to beat the first week of feb 09.

Nqp15hhu

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I saw snow pics in donegal over the last couple of weeks. Did letterkenny miss out?

When looking at pictures of snow on forums, keep in mind that many of the Northern Irish members On Netweather live at 100m+, that guy from the Sperrins is almost 200m. He always going to have snow.

As a 200 metre of 800 feet rise can have temps as much as 3c lower than sea level.

Gonzo

I would certainly rate this winter better than the last two which wouldn't be difficult. However if you look at all the charts over the past month, all that blocking, negative NAO and AO and we just can't tap into proper cold and snowy weather which is extremely frustrating due to all the pieces not aligning properly, namely the Greenland high and that stubborn Iberian high.

December 6th is still out on it's own as the coldest day of this winter so far with a high of -1C and freezing fog. The last 3 days of the recent cold spell was also nice with a dusting of snow and lots of ice/frost.

What I haven't enjoyed is all that cold rain we've had, wind, soggy garden and the let down in the models.

Still it's a lot better than 2019/2020. There is still hope that February may yet deliver.

appledrop

If we never got snow again in Ireland it wouldn't bother me in the slightest but my 4 year old would strongly disagree!

I hate it because in Ireland we can't deal with it and everything shuts down. I also have a long commute which is a nighmare in snowy or very ice weather. I went off road due to black ice years ago + I am always nervous when roads are very bad. Thankfully this year up to Dec very mild.

Now I suppose since most of us can't really go anyway or do anything at moment and most of us wfh, maybe now is the time for it to snow! I might even enjoy it, well long enough to build a snowman anyway.

Donegal Storm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

I saw snow pics in donegal over the last couple of weeks. Did letterkenny miss out?

Plenty in the hills, errigal was white for over 2 weeks but nothing much at low levels. Last winter we had plenty of snowy days in late Jan/early February and another good event in late February that dumped about 5-10cm overnight

Emme

I live in South Kildare. Apart from a few days of frost and snow I am sick of the wall to wall rain this winter and last winter as well. The fields have been waterlogged for months and the flooding gets worse with every wet day. Some roads are impassable due to flooding and disintegration on account of non-stop rain since late 2019 with a brief respite in April and May 2020.

nacho libre

bosco12345 wrote: »

I think people need to lower their expectations a little. When do we ever go into a deep freeze? It's very rare and is becoming increasingly rarer. The last proper cold spell we had was BFTE 3 years ago and before that was march 2013

Before that was 2010. We do seem to get decent cold spells every 10 years or so. What's frustrating people this time around is that we are very close to getting a severe cold spell. However, what you say is ultimately true, as long as we have the North Atlantic Drift to deal with, severe cold will be rare here. We can talk about the MJO not being in the correct phase to aid a proper HLB(what we currently see isn't a proper Greenland high), or the vortex displacement not working to our advantage till the cows come home but it's not the real issue.

I remember the 1990's being much, much milder, or at least there was many years in the 90's that were very mild in Winter, sure there were some cold years but overall I remember it being a lot milder than we have had in the last good few years on average.

I remember some decent lightning too and we had a lot more dry lighting something I rarely see today, that is lightning storms without thunder or rain.

nacho libre

bosco12345 wrote: »

Absolutely agree with this. It's been a great winter so far, all that was missing was a decent snow event but I'm certainly not complaining

I disagree that it has been a great winter. It has certainly been better than last year, but that wouldn't be too hard. I have enjoyed the cold and dry days, but there has been too much cold rain overall for my liking.

Humberto Salazar

The deep cold pooling over Scandinavia and Western Russia gets blasted back to Siberia on latest runs. All pretty uninspiring for next week.

Gonzo

The Iberian high looks like it's going to strengthen alot over the next 10 days as well. Fair chance the Atlantic will start to become more active as well, particularly for us.

nacho libre

To be honest if it's going to become wet i'd sooner it got mild. 4c and heavy rain is absolutely pointless.

Oneiric 3

nacho libre wrote: »

I disagree that it has been a great winter. It has certainly been better than last year, but that wouldn't be too hard. I have enjoyed the cold and dry days, but there has been too much cold rain overall for my liking.

I think meteorological dejection has set in completely because I can't even remember the weather of last winter. Clearly, it wasn't even worth remembering.

Someone mentioned the 90s. Imagine if this forum had existed back then, and in the 60s, 70s and 80s as well. We'd be fondly reading up on the first hand accounts of the big events of those various eras, and wondering how it was even possible to get them in the first place.