General Chat 2020/21

Green&Red

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

Crikey there was A LOT in that. So much so I skipped half of it.

The key takeaway, however, remains that Talismen should be high on our agenda when deciding who to buy in at any point because the data shows that focusing on these guys in how we build our teams should help maximise your FPL point gain throughout the season.

Is this not ALWAYS the case? I.e Grealish at Villa? Pukki at the start of last season another. I don't think they provided any information people didn't already know.

Even allowing for the concept that the best player is the one you should go for, what in the name of jebus does all the data have to do with it? They scored 15% of their teams total as opposed to someone else having 30% of their total, so what?
And what’s the rationale for taking out the CS and appearance points? It’s nonsense
They said on the podcast that this was for teams outside the top 6. Other than this year the last time Arsenal were out of the top 6? 1995

Glad to see I wasn’t the only one who thought it was rubbish

CSF

Aren’t there a lot of people who go for the cheaper secondary guys at big teams for coverage though?

Rashford and Ziyech seem like examples this year. Bergwijn last year.

Shanotheslayer

CSF wrote: »

Aren’t there a lot of people who go for the cheaper secondary guys at big teams for coverage though?

Rashford and Ziyech seem like examples this year. Bergwijn last year.

I plan to have Ziyech in my team

CSF

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

I plan to have Ziyech in my team

He’s probably not the talisman. I haven’t read the article yet, was just disputing the notion that it’s what we all do anyway. Very often there are numerous viable entries into a team.

Shanotheslayer

CSF wrote: »

He’s probably not the talisman. I haven’t read the article yet, was just disputing the notion that it’s what we all do anyway. Very often there are numerous viable entries into a team.

I think Pulisic is generally but rumours he's out start of the season so hoping Zi pops off at the start

Mr.Nice Guy

I saw some stuff on the talisman theory on social media before last season (2019/20) started. I copied it down at the time. Here is who they were recommending back then, excluding the promoted sides. (Wish I could properly credit who wrote it but I don't have their name):

Arsenal - Aubameyang - 22% of club score. Lacazette second with 17%.
Bournemouth - Callum Wilson - 23% of score. Fraser second with 21%.
Brighton - Murray - 23% of score. Duffy second with 13%.
Burnley - Wood - 18% of score. Barnes second with 17%.
Chelsea - Hazard - 26% of score. Pedro second with 9%.
Crystal P - Milivojevic - 16% of score. Zaha second with 16% of score.
Everton - Sigurdsson - 19% of score. Richarlison second with 16% of score.
Leicester - Vardy - 26% of score. Maddison second with 14%.
Liverpool - Salah - 20% of score. Mane second with 17%.
Man City - Sterling - 17% of score. Aguero second with 16%.
Man Utd - Pogba - 19% of score. Martial second with 13%.
Newcastle - Rondon - 24% of score. Perez second with 19%.
Southampton - Redmond - 15% of score. Ings second with 13%.
Spurs - Kane - 17% of score. Son second with 16%.
Watford - Deulofeu - 16% of score. Deeney second with 13%.
W. Ham - Anderson - 16% of score. Arnautovic second with 14%.
Wolves - Raul Jimenez - 26% of score. Jota second with 17% of score.


Looking at this, we see the following:

Brighton, Cardiff (depressingly for Bluebirds, their ‘keeper was far and away their talisman), Chelsea, Leicester and Wolves are the teams who really stand out as Talismanic sides.

In contrast, Wilfried Zaha is unlucky to lose out to Milivojevic by just 3 points for Palace, as is Kun to Sterling by just 13 – this might be explained by positional impacts (i.e. one more point for a goal for midfielders), though I’d expect (if he stays) the former situation to be sorted by Zaha’s reclassification.
Ayoze Perez‘s move to Leicester, as well as James Maddison being more settled in the Foxes’ set up under attacking manager Brendan Rodgers, will be interesting in terms of how it impacts Jamie Vardy’s huge Talismanic output from last year. I wonder if there will be a slight dilution of his Talisman margin with more players able to provide end product there (also reinforced by the permanent signing of Youri Tielemans), though it remains to be seen how big a dilution this will be.

On the Wilson/King point from the “Exit Velocity” analysis, Fraser is the Riker to Wilson’s Picard, not Josh King. In fact, the difference was quite stark between the two English strikers, as King scored 72 individual points to Wilson’s 109. This is a significant difference, and could fuel a bit of anxiety in terms of the near ubiquity of King being selected over his more expensive strike partner, though of course Value For Money plays a role.

Kane and Son also jostled for Spurs’ Talisman role. The two Spurs stars effectively traded blows during the course of the season – when one was unavailable, the other took the mantle – which led to just a 1.46% difference between the duo. Son is suspended for the first two games, but Kane is now back fit and has had a full summer off for the first time in yonks. I wonder if that will herald the return of the Kane who was such a Must Own in seasons past?

Fulham and Huddersfield were utterly dire, as underlined by the fact that January arrivals Ryan Babel and Karlan Grant were the Sloppy Seconds for those sides.

Evaluation

Value forwards were great last season in terms of this measure (NOT VALUE). The season before last, midfielders ruled the roost with the top 5 (Shaqiri, Mahrez, Salah, Gross and Arnautovic (then a mid)) all in the midfield spot. Despite not offering value per se (we’ll discuss this in another article), they do nonetheless represent strong options for many of the mid sized clubs, with Leicester’s Vardy a hero of this analysis in providing a great example of how this kind of individual can be key to both a side’s fortunes and scoring FPL points.

Leicester and Wolves were therefore classic Talismanic sides. Both relied heavily on one individual at the sharp end to create the end product to score them points. Chelsea (considered below) are more of an anomaly, having an A* player within a generally B+ attack. Things may of course change with extra firepower being added to both teams, so there’s a case to consider not quite focusing on those two once more (i.e. don’t plan for last season), but trying to identify when other teams provide this Talismanic individual.

Vardy and Jimenez were therefore last year’s Talisman heroes. Both were so close to Eden Hazard and rightfully had their feet on the figurative podium. It’s worth considering context, though. Jimenez may be superseded by the Europa League and Jota’s (who performed better in H2 last season on many metrics) emergence as his strike partner. However, you’d imagine Vardy – despite being no spring chicken – mostly occupying the lone forward role for a Leicester side free of European concerns; if anything, this analysis shows me that Vardy should be strongly considered despite the awkward 9.0 price point.

Is Wilson worth the money? A big outtake here is how much better Wilson fared than his cheaper counterpart Josh King. Despite playing 435 fewer minutes (i.e. almost 5 games) less than his fellow Englishman, Wilson’s productivity at the sharp end pings on the radar throughout this analysis. This should be food for thought for those (including me) who have defaulted to King due to cheaper price point as this analysis does not necessarily support that – maybe one for Value to examine.

If one emerges, the Talisman is the man to own. We said it last year, but it remains true: pinpointing these individuals in certain teams should probably be our priority in terms of our team composition when it comes to spots on our roster, because they are the likeliest to return you points week in, week out. In terms of sides like Leicester and Wolves, the power of owning the Talisman is clear: you have the player who will score those “added value” points within those sides clearly identified, who should be high in your consideration set if form and fixtures align. This is also worth keeping an eye on if a player from a newly promoted or lower reaches side seems to be hauling in winnable games – Mitrovic is another example of a type of Talisman you should consider purchasing if fixtures are good (Wesley? Teemu Pukki?).

Talisman theory again wasn’t as relevant to the bigger clubs. Though Mo Salah was undeniably the Talisman at Liverpool, points were shared far more given the breadth of quality in the frontline that could contribute and cannibalise points from our Egyptian King as you can see in the “Sloppy Seconds” data. The proportionally lower points percentages for the Talisman (with defensive points removed) for clubs like Man United, Man City and Arsenal should also be noted. The spread of points at the bigger clubs shows how we need to take a more case-by-case approach to their key men: where some (like Salah) are perhaps an auto-include due to ownership and/or performance, in other instances (e.g. which City man/men you buy) it’s who you judge will score you the most points in the current context.

The exception to this big clubs point was Chelsea: what happens there will be very interesting indeed. Their numbers look an anomaly based on the fact that they had one exceptional individual. Could the points disperse to a wider range of players chipping in, such as we see happening at the likes of Manchester City? In terms of Eden Hazard’s departure, the shoes that need to be filled are positively ginormous: without him, they could have really struggled. With the transfer ban in place for them, they’ll have to make do with what they’ve got for a “season in transition” under Frank Lampard. I wonder who will emerge there, but my money is on it being a “group effort” rather than a case of the Talisman mantle being passed onward to a standout option – maybe someone like Pulisic could prove me wrong though, and at the cheap prices that would be amazing in terms of the Talisman analysis.

Not all clubs have a Talisman. Season on season, this changes – where in 2017/18 the now Shanghai-based Marko Arnautovic scored 17% of West Ham’s individual points and was the Talisman, his replacement as Talisman last season, arch troll Felipe Anderson, had a much less effective performance by this metric. This points to how this can shift year on year – last season’s Talisman isn’t necessary the next’s.

Conclusion

The Talismen should continue to be our prime targets for purchase, although this emphasis on individuals is less important for the bigger clubs.
In the case of clubs outside of the traditional “top 6”, whose players will probably occupy one spot in our starting elevens, it seems a good strategy to focus on acquiring the Talisman. It’s all well and good to own a James Maddison-type and save money, and I understand if you have to in order to fit in firing premiums elsewhere; but if you have a chance to own a Vardy-type Talisman then prioritise it.

This analysis will be followed up with an article looking at emergence data, which may aid our understanding further. This will highlight how this theory can be best applied to making decisions for your team – especially surrounding that non-premium midfielder or striker slot.

As per last year, this opens up all sorts of interesting questions surrounding its natural counterpart Value in the context of player price.
For example: is Talismanic status more important than Value in terms of making player v player or team structure decisions?

We’ll tackle these in our upcoming article on price’s relationship with cost (again, at the expense of any creativity from me this’ll probably replicate last year’s analysis).

But the key takeaway remains that Talismen should be high on our agenda when deciding who to buy in at any point.

This seems is particularly true when looking to maximise value for the price you pay in the non-premium bracket, meaning Talisman Theory should be top of mind when you’re deciding whether to buy in a Talisman or gamble on a differential.

dasa29

liamoreilly wrote: »

... What are peoples breakdown of money spent per position... Right now I'm looking at

GK - £8.5m
Defence. £25.5m
Midfield. £46.5m
Forward £19.5m

... But having looked at a few different things today, I'm thinking of being closer to £31m for defence and a lighter midfield...

At Present I am looking this way

GK - £10m
Defence. £23.5m
Midfield. £41.5m
Forward £25m

But it could change between now and the start of the season.

nullObjects

dasa29 wrote: »

At Present I am looking this way

GK - £10m
Defence. £23.5m
Midfield. £41.5m
Forward £25m

But it could change between now and the start of the season.

Thinking of going 4-3-3 but same boat, will probably change it as soon as I start tinkering when the fixtures come out

GK - 9.5 (Pope, 4.0)
DEF - 25.5 (TAA and four 4.5s - Lamptey, Taylor, Walker-Peters, Vinagre)
MID - 36.0 (Salah, Ziyech, Foden, Soucek, Gordon)
FWD - 28.5 (Werner, Kun, Jim)

Total - 99.5 (.5 in the bank)

Green&Red

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I saw some stuff on the talisman theory on social media before last season (2019/20) started. I copied it down at the time. Here is who they were recommending back then, excluding the promoted sides. (Wish I could properly credit who wrote it but I don't have their name):

From the style its the same guy


Reading I see a load of generic stuff and a couple of open ended questions, nothing useful and no real recommendations

If you don't mind me asking what did you take out of it to copy it down?

joeyboy11

Pogue eile wrote: »

Pulisic and Martial or Werner and Greenwood? Leaning towards the latter.

I would go Werner and Greenwood. I have both in my team.

Markx

I've always found the Talisman Theory to be a bit of a head-scratcher to be honest. The only real response to it is "erm....OK".

What I will say for it is that it's a perfect theory in hindsight. The players who got the most points for their teams last season are indeed the players who got the most points for their teams last season.

Mr.Nice Guy

Green&Red wrote: »

If you don't mind me asking what did you take out of it to copy it down?

It was quite lengthy so I took it down to read it when I had more time. I'm not sure what to make of it really. As you say a lot of it is quite generic. I wonder is it just a complicated way of arriving at what most of us would call common sense.

jaykay74

I'm hoping Werner takes the penalties for Chelsea.


https://twitter.com/FPLSecrets/status/1295731853278818315?s=20

bmorrissey

For 5.5, Bamford is a cheap option, i dont see him hanging in well in the premier league however, he missed waaaay too many chances in championship last year. Mitrovich for the extra 0.5 is way less risky

dr.kenneth noisewater

Harry Wilson at 5.5 could be a nice 4th/5th MF if he gets a decent loan move

Shedite27

bmorrissey wrote: »

For 5.5, Bamford is a cheap option, i dont see him hanging in well in the premier league however, he missed waaaay too many chances in championship last year. Mitrovich for the extra 0.5 is way less risky

Going off track records, I can't make a case for any striker under 6.5

I'm sure some will break out, but there's no one there you think "bargain".

I'm gonna start with two 6.5m strikers with a view to switching to whoever is the new Ings/Pukki

Green&Red

Shedite27 wrote: »

Going off track records, I can't make a case for any striker under 6.5

I'm sure some will break out, but there's no one there you think "bargain".

I'm gonna start with two 6.5m strikers with a view to switching to whoever is the new Ings/Pukki

I think Robbo +bench fodder is the way I’ll go

Wolves signing a new wing back isn’t ideal for vinagre

bmorrissey

Shedite27 wrote: »

Going off track records, I can't make a case for any striker under 6.5

I'm sure some will break out, but there's no one there you think "bargain".

I'm gonna start with two 6.5m strikers with a view to switching to whoever is the new Ings/Pukki

True, I probably will have Mitrovic starting on the first gameweek (depending on who fulham are playing), 26 goals for fulham last year and has played in PL before so hopefully he'll be a handy earner.

Shanotheslayer

For those that forgot like I did

''The Premier League have said the fixtures for the new season will be confirmed between Wednesday, August 19 and Friday, August 21.''

Not sure if a set date was confirmed since but August 21st is sticking out.

The real mccoy 91

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

For those that forgot like I did

''The Premier League have said the fixtures for the new season will be confirmed between Wednesday, August 19 and Friday, August 21.''

Not sure if a set date was confirmed since but August 21st is sticking out.

The west ham itk did say they were due to be released today but it was put back because some clubs weren't happy when they had been shown the fixtures by the premier league. Apparently there is no set release date now until these issues are fixed

CSF

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

The west ham itk did say they were due to be released today but it was put back because some clubs weren't happy when they had been shown the fixtures by the premier league. Apparently there is no set release date now until these issues are fixed

I can’t understand how they have a choice

nullObjects

There's a few people tweeting that the fixtures are to be announced at 9am tomorrow

https://twitter.com/DaleJohnsonESPN/status/1296049258873982976?s=20
(He's an editor at ESPN, couldn't see anyone else reputable)

CSF

Seeing a lot of conversation online about 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 being the way to go this year.

Am I the only one who thinks that 3 strikers is all the more viable with so many pricey midfield options this year?

My current draft is a 4-3-3

Dearg81

CSF wrote: »

Seeing a lot of conversation online about 3-5-2 or 4-4-2 being the way to go this year.

Am I the only one who thinks that 3 strikers is all the more viable with so many pricey midfield options this year?

My current draft is a 4-3-3

I thought I'd definitely be going 352 but most good midfield options are expensive and there are some potential value fowards like Wood, Antonio, Mitovic, Adams and maybe Nkietah if Lacazette is going. I don't see as many good options in midfield at that price bar maybe Foden and Saint Max. I'm waiting for the fixtures though before I pick a team through so haven't looked at all the options.

Mr.Nice Guy

I think I'll have to have at least 4 starting midfielders. There are so many great options that I want to try and get on board. Salah/Mane, Sterling/KDB, Auba, Bruno/Rashford/Greenwood, Ziyech/Pulisic etc.

I've normally been a 3-4-3 guy but I'd like to try 3-5-2 this time. When I do my drafts though I keep coming back to 4-4-2.

dr.kenneth noisewater

Until we see fixtures is hard to decide, someone like Mitrovic is a great 3rd striker if Fulham get decent opening fixtures or likewise a cheap 5th MF or cheap 4th DEF with good opening fixture will affect your strategy.
Currently on 4-4-2 myself which I never started out with before

Shedite27

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think I'll have to have at least 4 starting midfielders. There are so many great options that I want to try and get on board. Salah/Mane, Sterling/KDB, Auba, Bruno/Rashford/Greenwood, Ziyech/Pulisic etc.

I've normally been a 3-4-3 guy but I'd like to try 3-5-2 this time. When I do my drafts though I keep coming back to 4-4-2.

YEah I'll be looking for 3 big midfielders (Salah or Mane, KDB or Sterling, PEA), 1 medium (Greenwood or Foden), and 1 cheap (Soucek) who may rotate with a defender

Shanotheslayer

No love for the 4-5-1?

I might lean towards that given the midfield choices. Messed around with the thoughts of it and I got the following:

Steer

TAA//Robbo // Mee // Rotate Branthwaite/Ferugson


Aubameyang// KDB // Salah // €9M // Gordon

Antonio

Bench: Nyland, Wickham , Davies

Could downgrade Robbo to Gomez and upgrade Gordon then also. Could even downgrade Mee to Bardsley

Father Hernandez

Shanotheslayer wrote: »

No love for the 4-5-1?

I might lean towards that given the midfield choices.

I think I'm going for 4-5-1

My thinking is Auba is a FW OOP so 'technically' playing 4-4-2

Defensive options are decent at 4.5 too and going big on the mids. Salah, KDB, Auba, Greenwood, Soucek.

kilburn

Shanotheslayer wrote:

Aubameyang// KDB // Salah // €9M // Gordon

Can you do Lundstrum/Grealish over 9m/Gordon

Or have Pulisic for 8.5 and upgrade Gordon