The UK response - Part II - read OP

Seth Brundle

Interesting reaction - not really surprising though...

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1405644416077938691

josip

It would be nice if the UK could get a lid on the case numbers.



I had thought 2 days ago that cases had plateaued, but it still doesn't seem to be fully under control.

Timberrrrrrrr

josip wrote: »

It would be nice if the UK could get a lid on the case numbers.



I had thought 2 days ago that cases had plateaued, but it still doesn't seem to be fully under control.

Case numbers are not that important, case numbers will always go up when restrictions are eased, its hospital numbers and deaths that count most.

josip

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Case numbers are not that important, case numbers will always go up when restrictions are eased, its hospital numbers and deaths that count most.

Agreed, but France/EU will probably continue to impose travel restrictions on those entering from the UK until they get their case numbers down.

A Dub in Glasgo

Hospitalisations lag cases so hopefully the vaccination programme has broken that link (or made it much smaller)

Two graphs below - first one shows hospitalisations over the whole pandemic and the second one focuses on the last month as the numbers are still very small when compared to the other two waves (graphs taken from https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/). They are creeping up, I suppose what would be useful is the case numbers superimposed onto the graphs

deeperlearning

The case numbers are really getting out of hand in the UK.

The worry is that Ireland will also find itself red-listed as well.

robinph

deeperlearning wrote: »

The case numbers are really getting out of hand in the UK.

The worry is that Ireland will also find itself red-listed as well.

I wouldn't panic just yet. Whilst the case numbers are increasing, the rate at which they are increasing isn't. So even though there are more cases in the wild each day they are not then infecting more people.

The number of people available for the vaccine to infect is reducing every day, although there is still going to be a significant number of 18-24 year olds that haven't been vaccinated or have only been jabbed very recently. Now it's open to all to get jabbed, by the time the next relaxation of restrictions occurs there will be enough within that age group such that although they are not all protected, enough will be to significantly slow any further spread.

The media is making out that impending doom is upon us, but the actual numbers don't show that even though they are increasing... Slowly....and getting slower.

Wolf359f

robinph wrote: »

I wouldn't panic just yet. Whilst the case numbers are increasing, the rate at which they are increasing isn't. So even though there are more cases in the wild each day they are not then infecting more people.

The number of people available for the vaccine to infect is reducing every day, although there is still going to be a significant number of 18-24 year olds that haven't been vaccinated or have only been jabbed very recently. Now it's open to all to get jabbed, by the time the next relaxation of restrictions occurs there will be enough within that age group such that although they are not all protected, enough will be to significantly slow any further spread.

The media is making out that impending doom is upon us, but the actual numbers don't show that even though they are increasing... Slowly....and getting slower.

Cases are still increasing. Only a few days ago we heard they were plateauing and hospital admission were not increasing etc...
Then it was the increase in cases was expected, not it's not increasing as much etc.... This was after the Delta variant was increasing day on day and the Alpha was reducing (masking the Delta increase)

Cases are rising in the age group who are unvaccinated, thankfully also the age group least at risk. So cases will increase, hospitalizations also but slower, but the deaths should be minute. The only thing though is apart from opening the vaccinations to 18+ and delaying the final reopening, there's nothing else being done to mitigate the spread.

S.M.B.

robinph wrote: »

The media is making out that impending doom is upon us,...

I see very little of this to be honest. Unless simply using the term Third Wave implies impending doom which I don't think it does.

Lumen

It's not complicated. When restrictions are relaxed, the virus spreads amongst the unvaccinated.

robinph

Lumen wrote: »

It's not complicated. When restrictions are relaxed, the virus spreads amongst the unvaccinated.

The most pleasing part of those charts is the 30-39 one where you can see the virus hitting its limit of more people to infect already.

josip

Almost 16,000 cases yesterday, an increase of over 4,000 on the previous day.
As expected, EU countries are starting to restrict travelers from the UK.
Bloody annoying.

FlubberJones

josip wrote: »

Almost 16,000 cases yesterday, an increase of over 4,000 on the previous day.
As expected, EU countries are starting to restrict travelers from the UK.
Bloody annoying.

Agreed, I need to get over in a few weeks and this is just going to generate hassle for me.. Hoping things balance out but the hangover of these situations tends to drag on

josip

I've just bitten the bullet and instead of landbridging to France via the UK in early July I'm going to go direct.
Costs more time and money, but less uncertainty.

BonnieSituation

FlubberJones wrote: »

Agreed, I need to get over in a few weeks and this is just going to generate hassle for me.. Hoping things balance out but the hangover of these situations tends to drag on

In a similar boat. Thankfully I'm fully vaccinated so that should help matters.

brickster69

josip wrote: »

Almost 16,000 cases yesterday, an increase of over 4,000 on the previous day.
As expected, EU countries are starting to restrict travelers from the UK.
Bloody annoying.

Don't for get they are testing 1 million people a day. A good way to look at things is deaths to cases.

Take today for example

77 new cases and 11 new deaths in Austria

UK yesterday 16K cases 19 deaths

Where would you be more nervous about going ?

josip

brickster69 wrote: »

Don't for get they are testing 1 million people a day. A good way to look at things is deaths to cases.

Take today for example

77 new cases and 11 new deaths in Austria

UK yesterday 16K cases 19 deaths

Where would you be more nervous about going ?

I'm nervous about neither

I'm trying to plan our usual summer overland across Europe.
The increasing cases in the UK and the resulting changes in travel restrictions in EU countries, makes it nearly impossible to plot a viable route that way.
It is normally our preferred route.

brickster69

josip wrote: »

I'm nervous about neither

I'm trying to plan our usual summer overland across Europe.
The increasing cases in the UK and the resulting changes in travel restrictions in EU countries, makes it nearly impossible to plot a viable route that way.
It is normally our preferred route.

It's a bit crazy that fine thing for leaving like, it has to go surely ?

brickster69

Wembley variant next ?

https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1408056832854163466

brickster69

Test test test

The UK tested 912,441 yesterday and this resulted in 16,134 positives, so 1.77%

France tested 53,739 which resulted in 2,320 positives, so 4.32%

If France tested 912,441 and assuming the same percentage, then their new cases are 39,391

Wolf359f

brickster69 wrote: »

Test test test

The UK tested 912,441 yesterday and this resulted in 16,134 positives, so 1.77%

France tested 53,739 which resulted in 2,320 positives, so 4.32%

If France tested 912,441 and assuming the same percentage, then their new cases are 39,391

Trumping Trump there! Test, test, test.
I'll bet the UK positivity rate is alot higher if you exclude antigen testing.

And that's not how positivity rate works. Using your logic the UK would have reached herd immunity a year ago in 3 short days, when they had 30% positivity.

A Dub in Glasgo

brickster69 wrote: »

Test test test

The UK tested 912,441 yesterday and this resulted in 16,134 positives, so 1.77%

France tested 53,739 which resulted in 2,320 positives, so 4.32%

If France tested 912,441 and assuming the same percentage, then their new cases are 39,391

Where is the UK data from?

Here is the test positivity rate for Scotland and you can clearly see the surge in delta variant over the last couple of weeks (not helped by the Euro football championships)





https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

ShineOn7

brickster69 wrote: »

Test test test

The UK tested 912,441 yesterday and this resulted in 16,134 positives, so 1.77%

France tested 53,739 which resulted in 2,320 positives, so 4.32%

If France tested 912,441 and assuming the same percentage, then their new cases are 39,391

A million percent agree and I've been saying it for ages

We need even more testing capacity

UAE today:

• Tests - 282,345
• Cases - 2161
• % - 0.77

Not a one off either as they've been testing at scale for at least a year now

Joe_ Public

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Where is the UK data from?

Here is the test positivity rate for Scotland and you can clearly see the surge in delta variant over the last couple of weeks (not helped by the Euro football championships)





https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/

They could just include all the rapid lateral flow antigen tests in the charts and they'd soon get that positivity rate right down!

brickster69

ShineOn7 wrote: »

A million percent agree and I've been saying it for ages

We need even more testing capacity

UAE today:

• Tests - 282,345
• Cases - 2161
• % - 0.77

Not a one off either as they've been testing at scale for at least a year now

Common sense isn't it.

If UAE did 28K tests they would of found 220 cases and 1900 people would now be running around passing it on. And that's just in one day.

Christy42

brickster69 wrote: »

Common sense isn't it.

If UAE did 28K tests they would of found 220 cases and 1900 people would now be running around passing it on. And that's just in one day.

Not quite. You test the most likely first so the more you test the lower you expect the positivity rate to be. Certainly more testing is good but you would expect a lot more than 220 cases with 28k tests since you would focus on those who have symptoms/contacts etc.

mick087

brickster69 wrote: »

Test test test

Yes i agree 100% Test Test Test.

You can bet that new variant is here already.
Lots of cases in the UK but few deaths.

We need to speed up here jab jab jab the vaccines are working.

brickster69

Christy42 wrote: »

Not quite. You test the most likely first so the more you test the lower you expect the positivity rate to be. Certainly more testing is good but you would expect a lot more than 220 cases with 28k tests since you would focus on those who have symptoms/contacts etc.

We are talking about random tests being carried out in a whole Country. Are you trying to say the earlier you get tested in a day the more likely you are to be positive ?

A Dub in Glasgo

brickster69 wrote: »

Test test test

The UK tested 912,441 yesterday and this resulted in 16,134 positives, so 1.77%

I note you did not answer the UK data source so I went and had a look and needless to say you have totally got it wrong regards testing and positive cases

The positive case numbers are PCR positive test numbers therefore you can only percentage that against the PCR test total

23/06/21
16,135 positive cases from 373,878 PCR tests which gives a positivity rate of 4.3%

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

Christy42

brickster69 wrote: »

We are talking about random tests being carried out in a whole Country. Are you trying to say the earlier you get tested in a day the more likely you are to be positive ?

Why are they random? Surely you test people with symptoms/contacts first? Or are those figures being held separate (I may have missed that in the conversation if so).