The UK response - Part II - read OP

Lumen

It means the receptor binding is more effective.

Chris_5339762

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

It seems to be (not an expert) that the transmissibility advantage of B117 (Kent) and B11672 (India) is out-competing the immune evasion of B1351 (South Africa), so the latter is not establishing.

I wonder too, when they say "more transmissible" what do they ACTUALLY mean. Do they mean that the virus has mutated in such a way that virus particles spread from person to person more effectively or latch onto ACE2 receptors more easily, or do they mean that more virus particles of the same spreading-power are coughed out by a person, making it more likely that enough of them will end up in a new person to cause an infection.

It's a combination of those things. One description I heard was that the Kent lineage causes the spike protein to become floppier, and this gives it a better chance to bind. More virus binds, this increases the viral load, and so you shed more virus and there is more of a chance of you passing it on. Early studies showed that there was a higher viral load detected in PCR tests that had the S-gene deletion.

Lumen

NHS boss says vaccines have ‘broken chain between Covid and serious illness’
Chris Hopson says hospitalisations with Delta variant are not increasing ‘very significantly’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/05/vaccines-have-broken-the-chain-between-covid-and-serious-illness

josip

Trajectory of case numbers is not good in the UK at the moment.
I understand that hospital cases are still ok, but from the point of getting the UK back on other countries' green lists, it's disappointing.
The 7 day average is increasing day on day and it will take a few weeks to turn around.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=UK+Covid+cases


They don't seem overly concerned about case numbers from the various news sites.
We need to landbridge across there in early July and it's frustrating looking at what's happening.

7,540 new confirmed covid cases over the past 24 hours in the UK. The highest daily figure since late February. BoJo has big choices to make come next Monday when he will decide whether to proceed with the "21st of June" plan that will broadly speaking unlock all remaining covid restrictions in England.

brickster69

Golf Crazy Guy wrote: »

7,540 new confirmed covid cases over the past 24 hours in the UK. The highest daily figure since late February. BoJo has big choices to make come next Monday when he will decide whether to proceed with the "21st of June" plan that will broadly speaking unlock all remaining covid restrictions in England.

7,540 cases from 800 K tests 6 deaths and 3 hospital admissions. Cases are only relative to the amount of testing going on.

Take Poland today 428 cases and 108 deaths. If they tested the same / population how many cases do you think they would find ?

S.M.B.

brickster69 wrote: »

7,540 cases from 800 K tests 6 deaths and 3 hospital admissions. Cases are only relative to the amount of testing going on.

And someone was pointing out that they are increasing relative to the amount of tests going on. No idea what Poland has to do with it.

Feels like merely acknowledging a rise in cases without even giving any opinion on what action should be taken as a result gets pounced upon.

JP Liz V1

The UK has recorded the highest increase in Covid cases since February, with 8,125 new infections reported on Friday.

Official figures also showed there had been 17 more deaths, a worrying uptick from the single figure numbers recently reported.

The number of new cases reported in the 24 hours to 9am on Friday is the highest since February 26 when 8,523 infections were reported - more than three months ago.

It comes as England’s R-rate rose again, and is now between 1.2 and 1.4. The number is up from last week’s estimate which was between 1.0 and 1.2.

The R rate represents the average number of people each Covid positive person goes on to infect.

When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially but when it is below 1, it means the epidemic is shrinking.

The latest figures from Public Health England (PHE), also published on Friday, show that 42,323 cases of the Delta variant first identified in India have been confirmed in the UK, up by 29,892 from last week.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-records-8-125-covid-151055647.html

Darc19

Four additional weeks of partial lockdown in the UK.

Boris bumbles again.

BonnieSituation

Darc19 wrote: »

Four additional weeks of partial lockdown in the UK.

Boris bumbles again.

Obviously the EU are at fault.

VinLieger

So who else saw exactly this coming after Boris made such a big deal about June 21st?

S.M.B.

I'm not going to complain about the u-turn. I'd be a lot more upset if they stubbornly went ahead with the initial plan.

As much as I have issue with their handling of things it seems harsh to deride their decision to postpone the lifting of all restrictions.

Timberrrrrrrr

Darc19 wrote: »

Four additional weeks of partial lockdown in the UK.

Boris bumbles again.

I would rather they extend the partial lockdown than just go ahead and open up fully. Wearing a mask and keeping social distancing really isn't that much of an inconvenience if it helps keep the numbers in hospital/deaths low.

I have multiple friends moving back to the UK next week. They timed it to coincide with the lifting of restrictions.

VinLieger

S.M.B. wrote: »

I'm not going to complain about the u-turn. I'd be a lot more upset if they stubbornly went ahead with the initial plan.

As much as I have issue with their handling of things it seems harsh to deride their decision to postpone the lifting of all restrictions.

It absolutely makes sense to extend, the issue is his pinning everyones hopes on the 21st in the first place. He has learned nothing from the last year which honestly isn't surprising really.

robinph

VinLieger wrote: »

It absolutely makes sense to extend, the issue is his pinning everyones hopes on the 21st in the first place. He has learned nothing from the last year which honestly isn't surprising really.

The 21st June was set out back in February (?) so it's not too bad a guesstimate from back then. To only miss the date by a couple of weeks in the end.

Not that it's down to Johnson of course.

Beasty

Should save me a few quid if it is delayed. Have tickets for the British GP and a number of other events pushed back from last year. If England was open, but we still had travel restrictions I would not be getting any refunds. If the UK are still limiting numbers at sporting events it's easy for me to give my tickets up or defer again to 2022.

Lumen

robinph wrote: »

Not that it's down to Johnson of course.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. The Indian variants were heavily seeded in the UK because Johnson delayed the red listing of India because he had a trip booked there.

igCorcaigh

I see they have delayed their "freedom day".

Hospitalisations are increasing with cases, will be interesting to see how uncoupled those metrics are.

robinph

Lumen wrote: »

I'm not sure what you mean by that. The Indian variants were heavily seeded in the UK because Johnson delayed the red listing of India because he had a trip booked there.

That Johnson didn't make the guesstimate of how things might be at the end of June back in February, that was other people with brains.

Without the Delta variant they got their guess pretty much bang on, even with the Delta variant they are not far off.

deeperlearning

After the destruction wreaked by the UK variant last Christmas, no leader should have been deceitful enough to make promises that they knew they couldn't keep.

But that didn't stop the bounder that is Johnson.

robinph

deeperlearning wrote: »

After the destruction wreaked by the UK variant last Christmas, no leader should have been deceitful enough to make promises that they knew they couldn't keep.

But that didn't stop the bounder that is Johnson.

Where has Johnson broken promises regarding the relaxation of lockdown restrictions? Each stage of the process stated "no earlier than...".

What is deceitful about setting out a plan to relax restrictions in February, and then having a new variant pop up in big numbers several months later?

S.M.B.

Roadmap out of lockdown
From 8 March, people in England will see restrictions start to lift and the government’s four-step roadmap offer a route back to a more normal life.

....... all the dates in the roadmap are indicative and subject to change.

.......

Only when the government is sure that it is safe to move from one step to the next will the final decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests:

- ....
- ....
- ....
- our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern

The Government were pretty clear from day one that a situation like the current one could result in a slight change of plan.

devnull

S.M.B. wrote: »

The Government were pretty clear from day one that a situation like the current one could result in a slight change of plan.

I'm far from a Tory or a Johnson lover, quite the opposite in fact.

But I'm also fair, and to beat Johnson and the Government with this brush is plain unfair. They said the dates were at the earliest dates all along.

Lumen

I don't dispute the epidemiology around the Delta variant, but there is an obvious coincidence of dates around reopening indoor activities on 17 May and a big uptick in case rates (ignoring the weird dinosaur feet).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/britain-england-scotland-wales-changing-coronavirus-restrictions-17-may

martingriff

Lumen wrote: »

I don't dispute the epidemiology around the Delta variant, but there is an obvious coincidence of dates around reopening indoor activities on 17 May and a big uptick in case rates (ignoring the weird dinosaur feet).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/britain-england-scotland-wales-changing-coronavirus-restrictions-17-may

Should read more slowly thought you were saying its a coincidence they were coming now close to reopen My apologize

S.M.B.

Is that what he/she is saying because that's entirely different to my reading of the previous post?

martingriff

S.M.B. wrote: »

Is that what he/she is saying because that's entirely different to my reading of the previous post?

My bad it is should read more slowly

Lumen

martingriff wrote: »

My bad it is should read more slowly

Your failure to understand is my failure to explain

Stheno

Lumen wrote: »

I don't dispute the epidemiology around the Delta variant, but there is an obvious coincidence of dates around reopening indoor activities on 17 May and a big uptick in case rates (ignoring the weird dinosaur feet).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/16/britain-england-scotland-wales-changing-coronavirus-restrictions-17-may

Eid was May 13th so id be factoring that in too