Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

That's all true. The budget will be very interesting and we will finally see what the plans are for the next few years of this coalition. If they don't have any original and workable plans to solve the housing crisis, I can't see the younger generation staying silent.

I guess the main problem is that once someone buys a home, they will vote in any party that won't solve the housing issue as they want to see their homes increasing in value. It would take a serious event to bring both the home owners and non-home owners together.

But then again, SF did get a serious chunk of the vote last time and I doubt it was just the non-home owners voting for them.

No the home owners who are the parents of the non home owners voted SF as well
Nothing worse than having a 35 yr old son living with you and no way out
Never mind the son not having sex ,now the parents cant have noisy sex either

MacronvFrugals

awec wrote: »

Maybe, just maybe, the problem is not as simple to solve as Sinn Fein like to portray?

Its not as simple when stuck in the paradigm of market fundamentalism.

I have no confidence Sinn Fein would be any better tbh but the thing is for so many young people its the chance of maybe it could be better and thats enough for them to vote SF.

The_Conductor

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

maybe it could be better

Thanks- I needed a laugh........
I actually own Eoin O'Broin's book- I shelled out for it on Amazon- to see what in God's name his thoughts were.
If people honestly think that his wonderful model for bringing everything back into Public Ownership- and going on a spree of building LA housing schemes- is going to fly- they have another thing coming.

SF's plans are based on an unlimited tax and spend mantra.

Younger voters might cool very rapidly in their love affair with SF when they cop that they are going to be taxed through the nose to pay for their wonderous plans..........

Assetbacked

Again it comes back to "what is the alternative to SF?" - that is where the younger voters are coming from. It is not sufficient to attack and question SF when there is no viable mainstream alternative. That is how the younger voters see it.

MacronvFrugals

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thanks- I needed a laugh........

Younger voters might cool very rapidly in their love affair with SF when they cop that they are going to be taxed through the nose to pay for their wonderous plans..........

I'm not saying your're wrong in any way but we all have 200 billion debt to pay and SF cant be blamed on that.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thanks- I needed a laugh........
I actually own Eoin O'Broin's book- I shelled out for it on Amazon- to see what in God's name his thoughts were.
If people honestly think that his wonderful model for bringing everything back into Public Ownership- and going on a spree of building LA housing schemes- is going to fly- they have another thing coming.

SF's plans are based on an unlimited tax and spend mantra.

Younger voters might cool very rapidly in their love affair with SF when they cop that they are going to be taxed through the nose to pay for their wonderous plans..........

I kind of lost respect for him when he stated that 'affordable housing' would cost the person €230,000 and the person wouldn't even own the land underneath.

His plan bothered me as it's now well known that the state could easily build three-bed semis for c. €100k if they really wished and to state that a quarter of a million euro for a home is 'affordable' is an insult to most peoples intelligence.

He appears to also assume that most people don't get married, have children, that both partners will be in full employment for the full 30 years of their mortgage, won't ever get sick etc. etc.

He's actually made me come back in favour of the market as I can see the market bringing homes well below this 'affordable' price level within 5 years.

MacronvFrugals

Those Marina Village properties in Greystones must be not selling, Glenveigh running a banner ad on The Journal today

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Those Marina Village properties in Greystones must be not selling, Glenveigh running a banner ad on The Journal today

That's going to be one of the nicest local authority housing projects on the planet!

bluelamp

Assetbacked wrote: »

Again it comes back to "what is the alternative to SF?" - that is where the younger voters are coming from. It is not sufficient to attack and question SF when there is no viable mainstream alternative. That is how the younger voters see it.

I've no doubt ff/fg will do nothing for affordability, because what actually needs to happen is for them to intentionally cause house prices and rents to fall.

They would never do this, even though it would benefit the majority of society going forward.

Sinn Fein will sail through the next election. I wont be voting for them, but a part of me will enjoy the drama.

Assetbacked

bluelamp wrote: »

I've no doubt ff/fg will do nothing for affordability, because what actually needs to happen is for them to intentionally cause house prices and rents to fall.

They would never do this, even though it would benefit the majority of society going forward.

Sinn Fein will sail through the next election. I wont be voting for them, but a part of me will enjoy the drama.

We won't actively look to buy for another 2 years I'd say, after we get married. But by then, if it looks like SF will get into power, we end up waiting until after the election to buy.

Cue the next wave of BS reasons the housing market will be faltering "uncertainty caused by Brexit and Covid" will be replaced with "uncertainty following covid and likelihood of SF being elected spooking the market".

jill_valentine

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thanks- I needed a laugh........
I actually own Eoin O'Broin's book- I shelled out for it on Amazon- to see what in God's name his thoughts were.
If people honestly think that his wonderful model for bringing everything back into Public Ownership- and going on a spree of building LA housing schemes- is going to fly- they have another thing coming.

SF's plans are based on an unlimited tax and spend mantra.

Younger voters might cool very rapidly in their love affair with SF when they cop that they are going to be taxed through the nose to pay for their wonderous plans..........

If they're currently paying a good chunk of their zero hour contract earnings on "temporary" USC and most of the rest on rent then this is no threat at all.

SF are a party of last resort for many, but that's the lay of the land. A gazillion years of FFFG have left young Irish workers in an absolutely miserable position, there is no warning about SF having a lack financial of sense that will have any weight with them when they've been listening to stuff about co living and watching houses get knocked to build Airbnbs Student Accommodation while they're working full time to come home to Mam's house at 32.

They *already* have no money, no prospects and barely a place to live of their own. They're heading into their second recession now with almost literally nothing to lose, and SF offer at least a chance of something different to what the current shower will definitely keep doing, which they already know fails.

PropQueries

10 x Residential Houses, Ballagh, Co. Tipperary: €800,000

This is an interesting one. The houses actually look well maintained.

My question would be how many of these type of similar developments were purchased by the investment funds several years ago and how many will be coming back into the market in the next several months?

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10-x-residential-houses-ballagh-co-tipperary/4456806

awec

The fact they're up for auction as a lot rather than sale suggests there's something wrong with them.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

The fact they're up for auction as a lot rather than sale suggests there's something wrong with them.

I'd reckon absolutely nothing. The investment funds bought up literally tens of thousands of houses over the past several years and nobody, journalists or otherwise, has cared to ask what they were doing with them.

I don't believe all those empty properties recorded by various different reports over the years are wrong. I'd believe they're primarily owned by these investment funds and many of them may be about to flood the market in the next several months.

MacronvFrugals

Oldie from 2018 interview with IRES CEO David Ehrlich

"I feel bad for the Irish people"

"“It’s a great market,”

“We’ve never seen rental increases like this in any jurisdiction that we’re aware of.”"

The question is getting critical mass – if it wasn’t for Nama it would have been impossible for anyone like that, including ourselves, to come into the marketplace,” says Ehrlich. - You can say that again David

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/ireland-s-biggest-landlord-i-feel-bad-for-the-irish-people-1.2870230

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I'd reckon absolutely nothing. The investment funds bought up literally tens of thousands of houses over the past several years and nobody, journalists or otherwise, has cared to ask what they were doing with them.

I don't believe all those empty properties recorded by various different reports over the years are wrong. I'd believe they're primarily owned by these investment funds and many of them may be about to flood the market in the next several months.

What investment fund bought these and when?

They don't even have an address so it's hard to determine any history. They don't look like they were built in the last few years, there's a smell of tiger off them. Being auctioned off as a lot suggests there is something there that normal buyers will not like.

I'm wondering if these were built years ago, but never finished, and have been finished off recently. The kitchens and bathrooms look new. The windows and door look like old PVC stuff.

The location is... appalling? 12km northwest of Cashel, that sounds like they are literally in the arsehole of nowhere?

handlemaster

PropQueries wrote: »

I'd reckon absolutely nothing. The investment funds bought up literally tens of thousands of houses over the past several years and nobody, journalists or otherwise, has cared to ask what they were doing with them.

I don't believe all those

empty properties recorded by various different reports over the years are wrong. I'd believe they're primarily owned by these investment funds and many of them may be about to flood the market in the next several months.

This doesnt make any sense, so you think investment companies i.e. companies that are holding to their shareholders purchased property and left them empty !!!
Investment companies that did buy only bought in Dublin and perhaps Cork , they were only in interested in high demand areas. They certainly were not buying to have their asset sit there empty.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

What investment fund bought these and when?

They don't even have an address so it's hard to determine any history. They don't look like they were built in the last few years, there's a smell of tiger off them. Being auctioned off as a lot suggests there is something there that normal buyers will not like.

I'm wondering if these were built years ago, but never finished, and have been finished off recently. The kitchens and bathrooms look new. The windows and door look like old PVC stuff.

The location is... appalling? 12km northwest of Cashel, that sounds like they are literally in the arsehole of nowhere?

Of course they were built during the celtic tiger years. That was my point. Bought by investment funds between 2012 and 2016. Held for few years and now about to flood the market.

David McWilliams said a few years ago "Most vulture funds have a rule called the three-thirty rule. This means they buy and hold for a maximum of three years and once they make 30 per cent they are out."

We're well past that three year rule now. They will want to cash out very soon and they can significantly undercut every other seller in the market and still walk away with a significant windfall.

I would believe that by the time they're finished selling, all the the so-called demand in the market will be gone for many many years to come.

This is a quote from the RTE documentary back in 2016:

"the otherwise anonymous financial companies that now control 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans in the country"

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.2931597

awec

I guessed right. Here they are on Google maps in July 2019.



It would be absolutely bizarre for an investment fund to buy them in 2012 and leave them in that state for 7 years. Pretty crap investment.

Mic 1972

Augeo wrote: »

US companies that require a European HQ would have a huge preference for the European HQ to be in an English speaking country ....... the lads running the show in the US don't speak 75 languages, they don't need to.

How difficult is it to find English speaking people in Romania for example?
if anything, it's probably easier to find 75 difference languages living in a English speaking country than any other country

PropQueries

handlemaster wrote: »

This doesnt make any sense, so you think investment companies i.e. companies that are holding to their shareholders purchased property and left them empty !!!
Investment companies that did buy only bought in Dublin and perhaps Cork , they were only in interested in high demand areas. They certainly were not buying to have their asset sit there empty.

Not at all. When they bought all those property loans from the banks it included loans attached to developments in every part of the country. The way the loan sales were packaged was so the investment funds would have to buy the loans attached to property developments in rural areas as well as in cities. The government and NAMA didn't want to be left with just the properties in the rural areas.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I guessed right. Here they are on Google maps in July 2019.



It would be absolutely bizarre for an investment fund to buy them in 2012 and leave them in that state for 7 years. Pretty crap investment.

Not is they bought them for €10k. This development could have been attached to a development in Dublin and they would have had to take this if they wanted the loans attached to the Dublin development.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I guessed right. Here they are on Google maps in July 2019.



It would be absolutely bizarre for an investment fund to buy them in 2012 and leave them in that state for 7 years. Pretty crap investment.

And here's them today. They did a good job:

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Of course they were built during the celtic tiger years. That was my point. Bought by investment funds between 2012 and 2016. Held for few years and now about to flood the market.

David McWilliams said a few years ago "Most vulture funds have a rule called the three-thirty rule. This means they buy and hold for a maximum of three years and once they make 30 per cent they are out."

We're well past that three year rule now. They will want to cash out very soon and they can significantly undercut every other seller in the market and still walk away with a significant windfall.

I would believe that by the time they're finished selling, all the the so-called demand in the market will be gone for many many years to come.

This is a quote from the RTE documentary back in 2016:

"the otherwise anonymous financial companies that now control 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans in the country"

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.2931597

But they're being sold as a lot. The only people who will buy this are investors.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

And here's them today. They did a good job:

https://photos-a.propertyimages.ie/media/6/0/8/4456806/12e2ecc0-6472-4d03-9f9a-9a99ead7285b_l.jpg

I don't really know if they did a good job or not as I don't have the documentation to understand why they are being sold as a lot.

If you have it I'd love to see it.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

I don't really know if they did a good job or not as I don't have the documentation to understand why they are being sold as a lot.

If you have it I'd love to see it.

Well, between 2012 and 2016, the investment funds bought c. 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans in Ireland.

Most of these are all coming onto the market over the next several years (probably much sooner) and as the supply of homes already greatly exceeds demand for homes in Ireland, they will probably be sold at prices that will make 2011 prices look expensive. But, given what they bought them for, they will still most likely walk away with double their initial investment.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

10 x Residential Houses, Ballagh, Co. Tipperary: €800,000

This is an interesting one. The houses actually look well maintained.

My question would be how many of these type of similar developments were purchased by the investment funds several years ago and how many will be coming back into the market in the next several months?

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/10-x-residential-houses-ballagh-co-tipperary/4456806

bought for €152k in 2015. Could be a tidy profit if they get interest. others houses in that area have gone from €20k ish to €200k over the years so €80k per house could be the going rate?

smellyoldboot

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How difficult is it to find English speaking people in Romania for example?
if anything, it's probably easier to find 75 difference languages living in a English speaking country than any other country

Usually with the American lads it isn't just about English language. They want an entry point into Europe that isn't "too foreign" some cultural similarity. It's where we make hay with them tbh.

brisan

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thanks- I needed a laugh........
I actually own Eoin O'Broin's book- I shelled out for it on Amazon- to see what in God's name his thoughts were.
If people honestly think that his wonderful model for bringing everything back into Public Ownership- and going on a spree of building LA housing schemes- is going to fly- they have another thing coming.

SF's plans are based on an unlimited tax and spend mantra.

Younger voters might cool very rapidly in their love affair with SF when they cop that they are going to be taxed through the nose to pay for their wonderous plans..........

You honestly think young people are going to read that book
You honestly think young people won’t vote SF

brisan

awec wrote: »

The fact they're up for auction as a lot rather than sale suggests there's something wrong with them.

The fact they are in the back of beyond with nothing around them is the main issue I’d say