Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

As per below census 2016, there’s no future demand from the domestic population. All projected housing demand is based on their net migration projections and they still didn’t include the 90,000 vacant homes (Geodirectory survey 2020 or 180,000 vacant homes as per census 2016, take your pick) just sitting there waiting to re-enter the market.

They assume they don’t exist, will disappear or the investment funds who own many of them will not allow them to ever re-enter the market.

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

The 0 - 34 bracket here might just be going up very very soon as there is lots of commentary about corona baby boom. As history has proven when there is a a recession people have no money to do anything so they just stay in and have sex and with corona stopping simple things like going outside for months on end I reckon they were probably like rabbits.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-baby-boom-may-be-on-the-cards-according-to-holles-street-1014275.html

https://www.irishpost.com/news/ireland-braced-for-post-lockdown-baby-boom-191084

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/a-little-baby-boom-that-s-catching-everyone-out-1.194350

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

The 0 - 34 bracket here might just be going up very very soon as there is lots of commentary about corona baby boom. As history has proven when there is a a recession people have no money to do anything so they just stay in and have sex and with corona stopping simple things like going outside for months on end I reckon they were probably like rabbits.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-baby-boom-may-be-on-the-cards-according-to-holles-street-1014275.html

https://www.irishpost.com/news/ireland-braced-for-post-lockdown-baby-boom-191084

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/a-little-baby-boom-that-s-catching-everyone-out-1.194350

It’ll be 25 years before they hit the property market
Plus contraception is widely available 😂
It’s the pregnancies from the drunken one night stands after coppers that will fall 😂

brisan

brisan wrote: »

.........
People assume WFH will disappear but it won’t
It’s proved it can work and work successfully
It may not be full time WFH but it’s here to stay

Yes, I'm saying that for the last 5 months ish even though I rarely WFH myself.

Cantstandsya

brisan wrote: »

It’ll be 25 years before they hit the property market
Plus contraception is widely available ��
It’s the pregnancies from the drunken one night stands after coppers that will fall ��

Not by fliball's logic.

They'll be part of the demand side of the equation as soon as they eye their first Wendy house.

fliball123

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Not by fliball's logic.

They'll be part of the demand side of the equation as soon as they eye their first Wendy house.

Well when a girl gets pregnant and not working and the daddy does a runner she is bumped up to the top of the housing list so there is an impact on the demand side smart a$$. Sure some girls see this as a way to get housed for free

brisan

Just seen KBC fined 18 m for their part in the tracker scandal
Not really going to affect anything just thought I’d share

cubatahavana

They set aside 14 million for this a while ago
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/kbc-ireland-sets-14m-aside-for-expected-tracker-fine-1.4082694?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Fkbc-ireland-sets-14m-aside-for-expected-tracker-fine-1.4082694

"The penalty is the second-largest levied by the Central Bank. Permanent TSB was fined €21 million in May last year for its involvement in the tracker scandal. Four other lenders, including Bank of Ireland, AIB and its EBS unit, and Ulster Bank remain under investigation. All have set aside provisions for likely fines."

Seems they are not the only ones

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I'm in a knot laughing at this article in the Indo,

"The biggest problem with working from home is the feeling of being disconnected from colleagues and clients. We usually rely on team-spirit to get us through tough times but the pandemic itself makes that difficult."

In the commercial property section

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/team-spirit-is-needed-to-stay-positive-in-these-tough-times-39557601.html

Obviously been told to push the back to the office agenda
WFH is here to stay
Maybe not full time but a hybrid of a few day a month in the office and the rest WFH
It’s the middle managers who do no actual work but supervise and collect work who are most in danger here
I’ve yet to meet anyone who WFH who wants to give it up
The loss of a few Friday evening pints ( when the pubs are open ) is easily compensated by the shorter working day , less commute , less expense and flexibility
I know a couple of lads who are saying they are getting more done in less time because they are more focused with less distractions
They want to stay WFH and do not want to mess it up
FaceTime and zoom are their office interactions.

Leozord

Sheeps wrote: »

Almost every survey shows that people would happily pay more tax for better public services. In particular housing. O'Broin is a large part of the reason Sinn Féin did so well in the last election. An increase on the tax you'd pay towards having a proper public housing stock is nothing on what you're paying in rent to private landlords at the moment. Young people looking into the oblivion of the current housing and rental market can see that very clearly.

Yeah but honestly, Ireland tax rate for individuals is not much different from Scandinavian countries, which in theory, are the model when it comes to public investment and balanced government budgeting.

Aside, it seems that Ireland is improving alright. If we follow the HDI list, Ireland is the 3rd best in the world. Maybe a small increase in taxes will put the country on the top of the list.

Or everything will fall apart.

optogirl

fliball123 wrote: »

Well when a girl gets pregnant and not working and the daddy does a runner she is bumped up to the top of the housing list so there is an impact on the demand side smart a$$. Sure some girls see this as a way to get housed for free

Yes, being responsible for the raising of a human is definitely an easy way to get housed :rolleyes:

thefridge2006

brisan wrote: »

As I said it’s hypothetical
If my brother or anyone bought late last year for 400 k with a BTL mortgage and the property price drops and his potential rent drops then they are in trouble
As I said it does not make a blind bit of difference to me as at 60 and retiring soon I’m a couple of years out of the property game
I’ve one family home now and the price of it is inconsequential
A price drop may suit my kids if they wish to trade up but the 2 out of 3 that may will not be in a position to do so for a few years
However I can see prices dropping over the next couple of years for various reasons
Covid 19 and the changes to society it has brought( WFH , Lockdowns, retail hospitality, tourism education ) and will continue to bring
A major recession coming on stream further fuelled by Brexit
A world wide recession of varying lengths and depths with our nearest neighbour and biggest trading partner being hardest hit
Property being already overpriced and out of reach of a good percentage of our young people
Just my thoughts and I cannot see any other scenario
By how much and how quick no one knows
5-40% over 6-36 months and anything in between

Spot on. Add Trump into the mix also.

If this doesn't happen there is something extremely messed up going on.
I personally can't see anything other than a major crash. Companies are being propped up at the moment and job losses have been huge already. When the life support is switched off its game over and nobody can tell how bad it will be

fliball123

optogirl wrote: »

Yes, being responsible for the raising of a human is definitely an easy way to get housed :rolleyes:

Well it is what happens I know its not intentional in a lot of cases but I think it crazy there is not much emphasis on getting daddy to pay his share for his kid in this country

dor843088

brisan wrote: »

Yes if rents stay the same
But if you want 4% gross yield off a property you have to charge 1600 a month for a 400k property
If that property drops to 300k then 1200 will cover the gross yield
So if someone buys a similar property for 300k he can rent it out for 1200
My brothers rental drops and maybe the property won’t wash its face regarding mortgage etc
Just hypothetical figures

4% gross yield . Lol. Its "investors" like yourself and your brother who brought the property market to its knees last time. 4% gross yield wow .

thefridge2006

dor843088 wrote: »

4% gross yield . Lol. Its "investors" like yourself and your brother who brought the property market to its knees last time. 4% gross yield wow .

Do you think a 4% yield is good or bad? what should he have looked for in your opinion?

MacronvFrugals

optogirl wrote: »

Yes, being responsible for the raising of a human is definitely an easy way to get housed :rolleyes:

Its mad logic that stems from our Catholic past.

Looking after single mothers now goes a little way in fixing the horrors of our past.

Browney7

dor843088 wrote: »

4% gross yield . Lol. Its "investors" like yourself and your brother who brought the property market to its knees last time. 4% gross yield wow .

I'd expect investors in Dublin are getting approx 6 to 7% gross yields at present. One bed rent is in the 1400 per month ball park for a one bed with a purchase price of 250k and 1800 per month for two beds with purchase prices in the low 300s. Whether these rents will be sustained is another question

dor843088

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think a 4% yield is good or bad? what should he have looked for in your opinion?

At 4% he does not have an investment . He has a second job and a second mortgage and a pile of risk.

thefridge2006

dor843088 wrote: »

At 4% he does not have an investment . He has a second job and a second mortgage and a pile of risk.

What should they have aimed for in your opinion?

thefridge2006

Commission ready to clamp down on sweetheart corporate tax deals
- Irish times.

This could be huge for Ireland and i would imagine have a massive knock on affect on the housing market.

It was only a matter of time before this happened to be fair. Why would some countries struggle to attract outside investment while Ireland get special treatment?

I would imagine this is the perfect time for Europe to level the playing field. Everyone will be in the same boat

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Commission ready to clamp down on sweetheart corporate tax deals
- Irish times.

This could be huge for Ireland and i would imagine have a massive knock on affect on the housing market.

It was only a matter of time before this happened to be fair. Why would some countries struggle to attract outside investment while Ireland get special treatment?

I would imagine this is the perfect time for Europe to level the playing field. Everyone will be in the same boat

Why do you think it could be huge for Ireland? What sweetheart deals do you think we have?

What do you mean "it was only a matter of time". The Commission literally spent 4+ years investigating Ireland and Apple in particular, and Ireland and Apple were both found to have done nothing wrong by the European courts only a few months ago.

MacronvFrugals

The commission found Ireland didn't give Apple a favorable deal that no other company got.

So it was perfectly legal for apple to pay 0.05% tax in Ireland, of course this raised many eyebrows within the commission so although we won the case how does it look that companies are paying essentially zero tax.

The fact that they were found to have done nothing wrong opens up a whole other can of worms.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The commission found Ireland didn't give Apple a favorable deal that no other company got.

So it was perfectly legal for apple to pay 0.05% tax in Ireland, of course this raised many eyebrows within the commission so although we won the case how does it look that companies are paying essentially zero tax.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40022267.html

explains it very well. Poorly constructed case by the commission topped off by plenty of misinformation on their part.

(I'm not trying to deny there are questionable tax practices going on but it is important to look at facts and not listen to idiot politicians in ireland harping on about this.)

thefridge2006

awec wrote: »

Why do you think it could be huge for Ireland? What sweetheart deals do you think we have?

What do you mean "it was only a matter of time". The Commission literally spent 4+ years investigating Ireland and Apple in particular, and Ireland and Apple were both found to have done nothing wrong by the European courts only a few months ago.

Because its not very good when you're being singled out for an unfair advantage in a recession (where everyone is expected to chip in to get us out of it) and it specifically targets our ace up our sleeve.... our corporation rate is 90% the reason these companies are here IMO

"The commission has previously identified the Republic among member states whose tax rules are used by companies engaging in aggressive tax planning."

When the Brits leave, they can make their own rules and the fact they are rightly screwed at the moment i can see them doing what it takes to make Brexit a success. There will be no limits to what they will do i think.

thefridge2006

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The commission found Ireland didn't give Apple a favorable deal that no other company got.

So it was perfectly legal for apple to pay 0.05% tax in Ireland, of course this raised many eyebrows within the commission so although we won the case how does it look that companies are paying essentially zero tax.

The fact that they were found to have done nothing wrong opens up a whole other can of worms.

Exactly

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40022267.html

explains it very well. Poorly constructed case by the commission topped off by plenty of misinformation on their part.

(I'm not trying to deny there are questionable tax practices going on but it is important to look at facts and not listen to idiot politicians in ireland harping on about this.)

Of course Coffey would say that he was chair of FAC, his job is to peddle everything finance wise in the state, akin to Ronan Lyons telling us Airbnb properties dont really affect supply at all, these people know where their bread is buttered.

The commission will recoup and start poking further thats my worry.

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Of course Coffey would say that he was chair of FAC, his job is to peddle everything finance wise in the state, akin to Ronan Lyons telling us Airbnb properties dont really affect supply at all, these people know where their bread is buttered.

The commission will recoup and start poking further thats my worry.

Oh ok. Ignore the facts of the case and discredit the writer.

Geuze

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The commission found Ireland didn't give Apple a favorable deal that no other company got.

So it was perfectly legal for apple to pay 0.05% tax in Ireland, of course this raised many eyebrows within the commission so although we won the case how does it look that companies are paying essentially zero tax.

The fact that they were found to have done nothing wrong opens up a whole other can of worms.

Apple paid 12.5% CT, on the share of its profits attributable to Ireland.

There is no 0.05% rate

MacronvFrugals

Geuze wrote: »

Apple paid 12.5% CT, on the share of its profits attributable to Ireland.

There is no 0.05% rate

"It said the multinational, whose headquarters are in Cupertino, California, had been able to use two shell companies incorporated in Ireland, with the agreement of the local tax authorities, to report Europe-wide profits at effective rates well under 1% – and as low as 0.005% in 2014."

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/15/apple-does-not-need-to-pay-13bn-irish-tax-bill-court-rules

Am i correct in saying they paid 12.5% on Irish profits while simultaneously paying nothing on Europe wide profits?

Amirani

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Am i correct in saying they paid 12.5% on Irish profits while simultaneously paying nothing on Europe wide revenue?

Most companies typically don't pay tax on their revenues.

brisan

dor843088 wrote: »

4% gross yield . Lol. Its "investors" like yourself and your brother who brought the property market to its knees last time. 4% gross yield wow .

Did you read the post ,obviously not
When you have read the post properly and fully comprehended it come back and post
Warning
There are words with five or more letters in my post so you may need help,