Donald Trump Presidency discussion Thread VIII (threadbanned users listed in OP)

eire4

Foxtrol wrote: »

The US is now into its 3rd wave, when most other places are on their 2nd.

The main reason why the numbers in the US aren't higher is that Democrat governors (and to be fair a few responsible GOP ones) are ignoring what Trump is calling for. Those Dem states are seeing relatively low rates while those GOP led states that are following Trump's guidance are in terrible situations.

Unfortunately I think the numbers in the US will be going higher and likely quite a bit higher. Their daily new cases are up over 70,000 regularly now the deaths are back up to 900-1,000 a day and those numbers look very likely to go quite a bit higher. I would also say while some governors are doing their best I think there is only so long they can hold out when there is no national co-ordinated strategy and I think they all will end up suffering a really nasty time of it over the coming weeks.

banie01

looksee wrote: »

Apparently they turned up. Or something.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ups-said-found-lost-tucker-carlson-documents-sending-back-2020-10?r=US&IR=T

I was only joking when I said UPS, that said I'm not surprised it's them at all!

salmocab

banie01 wrote: »

I was only joking when I said UPS, that said I'm not surprised it's them at all!

If it was Dpd they’d have chucked it in a skip somewhere

listermint

salmocab wrote: »

If it was Dpd they’d have chucked it in a skip somewhere

But signed for it on your behalf.

robinph

Foxtrol wrote: »

The US is now into its 3rd wave, when most other places are on their 2nd.

The main reason why the numbers in the US aren't higher is that Democrat governors (and to be fair a few responsible GOP ones) are ignoring what Trump is calling for. Those Dem states are seeing relatively low rates while those GOP led states that are following Trump's guidance are in terrible situations.

There isn't a 3rd wave in the US. Its just some states have numbers rising for the first time whilst others are dropping or there is a first peak from one state that happens to fall on the graph in between the first and second waves of another state.

If the US is on a 3rd wave then Europe is on their 10th wave as you'd need to count a peak from Italy, then another separate one from Spain, then another separate one from France, then another separate one from the UK, then back to count the second wave from Italy as the 6th European wave or something and go round again.

Igotadose

Foxtrol wrote: »

Trump had hindsight for the last 6 months but has refused to take anything on board.

NYC was incredibly hard hit early in the pandemic and through learning from mistakes and following the latest science they have since kept cases extremely low.

Rather than following their model Trump has done the opposite, pushing for the rush back to normal life and this continues to lead to cases rising in states that listen to him.

Herself has been mining data from the NYC department of health for the last 6 months. If you dig deep enough, based on the commonly accepted chance of death and actual deaths, pretty much everyone in NYC has been infected by now. They reached herd immunity the hard way. We both believe the huge crush of people at the airports due to the European travel ban was the mega super spreader event in NYC in March

Christy42

robinph wrote: »

There isn't a 3rd wave in the US. Its just some states have numbers rising for the first time whilst others are dropping or there is a first peak from one state that happens to fall on the graph in between the first and second waves of another state.

If the US is on a 3rd wave then Europe is on their 10th wave as you'd need to count a peak from Italy, then another separate one from Spain, then another separate one from France, then another separate one from the UK, then back to count the second wave from Italy as the 6th European wave or something and go round again.

Which ones are rising for the first time? Texas seems pretty high at the moment but unless it is having a ridiculous wave it didn't hit 3% infected in one quick go.

Water John

Fauci says the US is still in the 1st wave.

rossie1977

valoren wrote: »

Fore more years! That he felt the need to provide an explanation is telling. Nicklaus a dedicated GOP donor ? Voting Republican? Voting for Trump with whom he has a working relationship with in Golf circles? What a shock.

Why the embarrassing guff about loving the country? Delivering on promises? Socialism bad? Why the ringing endorsement? I guess your charity getting $20 million towards a hospital might have something to do with Nicklaus, a dyed in the wool Republican, raising his head above the parapet. Seems like a quid pro quo and he owes Trump a favor with a public endorsement particularly in a swing state such as Florida where Nicklaus resides.

PGA is hardcore Republican so no shock a big name US golfer or fan would endorse Trump

L1011

There are reasons golfers would like Trump - owns courses, decent enough ones at that, plays, etc.

WWE fans being 'left' (for America) is something I didn't expect.

robinph

Christy42 wrote: »

Which ones are rising for the first time? Texas seems pretty high at the moment but unless it is having a ridiculous wave it didn't hit 3% infected in one quick go.

Have a look at the individual state by state charts and nowhere is having an actual third peak yet:
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/

There is a couple of states that might look slightly like a third peak, but nothing that isn't just due to the noise of the data. Switch the view to showing a uniform scale though and those states numbers are pretty insignificant on a national scale.

The three peaks nationally are peak 1 from NY, peak 2 a combination of California Texas and Florida, and peak 3 a combination of Texas and all other states.

Foxtrol

robinph wrote: »

There isn't a 3rd wave in the US. Its just some states have numbers rising for the first time whilst others are dropping or there is a first peak from one state that happens to fall on the graph in between the first and second waves of another state.

If the US is on a 3rd wave then Europe is on their 10th wave as you'd need to count a peak from Italy, then another separate one from Spain, then another separate one from France, then another separate one from the UK, then back to count the second wave from Italy as the 6th European wave or something and go round again.

I get where you're coming from but the US is one nation with one overarching government that can have an impact on the virus if they chose to. When you start looking at state by state it isn't like looking at each country in Europe individually, it is like looking at each county in Ireland separately. Even when you look at the data for many states, you can see multiple peaks from where restrictions are eased and the reverse when they are reimplemented.

Whatever number of waves you want to claim it has been, my overarching point is that there were lessons to be learned from the initial outbreak that Trump has refused to promote to other states. It isn't saying Biden now has hindsight with his approach, Trump has had it for months and refused to take the necessary steps.

aloyisious

Looking at the different USSC rulings being given on ballot extensions and the post-date marking on the envelope, can I take it each ruling is based on the vote law in the respective state? It seems that the Pennsylvania extension decision may be challenged after the election, though that surprises me as the comments on that decision reportedly came from 3 of the USSC judges.

In one state, the USSC ruled the envelopes with smudged or non-legible postmarks are to be accepted as valid by the vote counters and not discarded along with the contents while for another state, the decision was different.

Edit: I've just read an MSN report which seems to explain the USSC Pennsylvania decision but the reasoning of the conservative judges seems strange as the court they agreed with is a state, not federal, court & part of Pennsylvania's constitutional system. The USSC judges reportedly base their decisions on NOT liking lower federal courts interfering in individual states constitutional matters.


Copy of part of the MSN report: There also is a difference in how the justices act based on whether they are ruling on a lawsuit that began in state or federal court.

Conservative justices who hold a majority on the Supreme Court object to what they see as intrusions by federal judges who order last-minute changes to state election rules, even in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic. The power to alter absentee ballot deadlines and other voting issues rests with state legislatures, not federal courts, according to the conservative justices.

The court also is divided, but so far has been willing to allow state courts interpreting their own state constitutions to play more of a role than their federal counterparts.

Last week, four conservative justices would have put on hold a Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruling allowing three additional days to receive and count mailed ballots. Three justices in Wednesday's order about North Carolina's absentee ballots would have blocked a six-day extension.

The justices did not finally resolve the legal issues involved, but they could do so after the election. A more thorough examination could come either in a post-election challenge that could determine the presidential winner if, for example, Pennsylvania proves critical to the national outcome, or in a less tense setting that might not affect the 2020 vote, but would apply in the future.

CelticRambler

Foxtrol wrote: »

I get where you're coming from but the US is one nation with one overarching government ...

No, it's not. It's a collection of fifty "nations" - we'd call them "countries" but they're much bigger than ours - each with their own government, their own constitution, their own local rules and regulations, and a heck of a lot less harmonisation than our 27 states in Europe.

And besides, a certain Donald J. Trump very clearly shifted responsibility for managing this disease onto the individual governors, so you can't invoke "one overarching government" as an argument.

So robinph is right: these new spikes don't represent a third wave - they show the arrival of the virus in the more remote and less populated areas of the US, which (as a result of those two factors) are less well equipped to deal with a sudden increase in demand for intensive care facilities.

Trump has been bragging about sending their world-class ventilators to other countries to help those other places overcome the pandemic; meanwhile, he's leaving his own red-state voters struggling to breath with no access to the miracle cures he's so proud of.

Christy42

robinph wrote: »

Have a look at the individual state by state charts and nowhere is having an actual third peak yet:
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/USA-TRENDS/dgkvlgkrkpb/

There is a couple of states that might look slightly like a third peak, but nothing that isn't just due to the noise of the data. Switch the view to showing a uniform scale though and those states numbers are pretty insignificant on a national scale.

The three peaks nationally are peak 1 from NY, peak 2 a combination of California Texas and Florida, and peak 3 a combination of Texas and all other states.

Sure but that isn't some states only being hit now as you suggested either.

Christy42

CelticRambler wrote: »

No, it's not. It's a collection of fifty "nations" - we'd call them "countries" but they're much bigger than ours - each with their own government, their own constitution, their own local rules and regulations, and a heck of a lot less harmonisation than our 27 states in Europe.

And besides, a certain Donald J. Trump very clearly shifted responsibility for managing this disease onto the individual governors, so you can't invoke "one overarching government" as an argument.

So robinph is right: these new spikes don't represent a third wave - they show the arrival of the virus in the more remote and less populated areas of the US, which (as a result of those two factors) are less well equipped to deal with a sudden increase in demand for intensive care facilities.

Trump has been bragging about sending their world-class ventilators to other countries to help those other places overcome the pandemic; meanwhile, he's leaving his own red-state voters struggling to breath with no access to the miracle cures he's so proud of.

They are far less than countries. You don't see the power of the president on any one person in the EU for instance and it would be considered a massive hit to sovereignty if there was one. Similar for the national guard. Imagine an EU army deployed in Ireland against the wishes of the Irish government!!

Meh, Pence and Kushner were out in charge of something. They can get blamed with it. There is plenty of blame to go around at state level as well but the US government has a lot of responsibility in this area as well.

Edit: I would also add they themselves have counted themselves as an individual country for the purposes of comparison (generally against the worst EU countries). If we want to sum it up they will look horrific against the EU as a whole.

hirondelle

L1011 wrote: »

There are reasons golfers would like Trump - owns courses, decent enough ones at that, plays, etc.

WWE fans being 'left' (for America) is something I didn't expect.

Monster trucks completely threw me!

dogbert27

Donald Trump Jr. says the number dead in America due to Covid are almost nothing.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8896045/Donald-Trump-Jr-says-COVID-deaths-day-nearly-1-000-Americans-died.html

It's insane that this admin is even being considered for another 4 years

Foxtrol

CelticRambler wrote: »

No, it's not. It's a collection of fifty "nations" - we'd call them "countries" but they're much bigger than ours - each with their own government, their own constitution, their own local rules and regulations, and a heck of a lot less harmonisation than our 27 states in Europe.

States have the power but to imply the US president cannot guide them shows quite a lack of understanding of the politics at play. This is especially the case now, when it is red states that are on fire with COVID. Barely an elected official in the GOP has gone against Trump since he was elected, do you really believe the GOP governors would defy him if from day 1 he pushed for masks and shutdowns in areas where cases were rising?

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1321791942074732544?s=20

robinph

Foxtrol wrote: »

States have the power but to imply the US president cannot guide them shows quite a lack of understanding of the politics at play. This is especially the case now, when it is red states that are on fire with COVID. Barely an elected official in the GOP has gone against Trump since he was elected, do you really believe the GOP governors would defy him if from day 1 he pushed for masks and shutdowns in areas where cases were rising?

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1321791942074732544?s=20

Not disagreeing with that, just that to imply that there is currently a 3rd wave occuring within the same population that has already been hit twice isn't correct.

Igotadose

Oh goody. Something other than election stuff. Seems like the #IMPOTUS and his goon Barr, meddled in an investigation into a Turkish bank that was violating the Iran Sanction (i.e., loaning Iran money, so how odd the #IMPOTUS would be in favor of helping Iran.) Anyway, when Biden was asked about this case in 2016, he said "You can't do this as President, you'd be impeached." That's not how things work in this Administration, however.

As the article ends with, "If Trump gets reelected, the House should impeach." This is real smoking gun nasty stuff:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/trump-turkey-bank-scandal-corruption-erdogan-halkbank-conflict-interest.html

Detritus70

robinph wrote: »

Not disagreeing with that, just that to imply that there is currently a 3rd wave occuring within the same population that has already been hit twice isn't correct.

Isn't that arguing about the exact positioning of deckchairs on the Titanic?

All_in_Flynn

538 makes for good reading if you are in the anti Trump camp.

I still have this irrational lingering fear that the polls are wrong and he will manage to flip PA and win Florida and thus get over the line again. However, when I sit back and look at it properly, I have an inkling that if the polls are wrong, they will be wrong in favor of Biden.

Listened to that podcast on Vox with Nate Silver of 538. Very good and gives great insight into how it all works.

gmisk

dogbert27 wrote: »

Donald Trump Jr. says the number dead in America due to Covid are almost nothing.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8896045/Donald-Trump-Jr-says-COVID-deaths-day-nearly-1-000-Americans-died.html

It's insane that this admin is even being considered for another 4 years

It's also insane in recent polls Donald Trump junior is one of the front runners for the Republican candidacy in 2024....only behind Nikki Haley by a tiny amount

abff

I just read the entire text of Jack Nicklaus's message of support for Trump. Apart from the lies and exaggerations in what he said in support of Trump, which was bad enough, I found the following words, which came at the end of his message, particularly disturbing.

"But if we want to continue to have the opportunity to pursue the American Dream, and not evolve into a socialist America and have the government run your life, then I strongly recommend you consider Donald J. Trump for another 4 years. I certainly have and have already cast my vote for him!"

partyguinness

abff wrote: »

I just read the entire text of Jack Nicklaus's message of support for Trump. Apart from the lies and exaggerations in what he said in support of Trump, which was bad enough, I found the following words, which came at the end of his message, particularly disturbing.

"But if we want to continue to have the opportunity to pursue the American Dream, and not evolve into a socialist America and have the government run your life, then I strongly recommend you consider Donald J. Trump for another 4 years. I certainly have and have already cast my vote for him!"

"Old rich golf playing white guy supports Trump"


In other news the Pope is Catholic.

listermint

partyguinness wrote: »

"Old rich golf playing white guy supports Trump"


In other news the Pope is Catholic.

Could equally say that any rich southerner is highly likely to hear socialist now everytime democrats are mentioned. Something about coming to take their windows or remove the staff out of their homes. Maybe filling in their swimming pools and taking their first born...

Stallingrad

gmisk wrote: »

It's also insane in recent polls Donald Trump junior is one of the front runners for the Republican candidacy in 2024....only behind Nikki Haley by a tiny amount

Ah here, would you park that! We are potentially nearing the end to this Trump nightmare and you go mentioning there may be another one in the wings?! At least let us come up for air! :pac:

partyguinness

listermint wrote: »

Could equally say that any rich southerner I'd highly likely to hear socialist now everytime democrats are mentioned. Something about coming to take their windows or remove the staff out of their homes. Maybe filling in their swimming pools and taking their first born...

I don't think the old socialist/"Red Under the Bed" line washes anymore (if it ever did). It is not the 1950s plus anyone that might take notice is probably so far GOP it makes no difference.

Foxtrol

robinph wrote: »

Not disagreeing with that, just that to imply that there is currently a 3rd wave occuring within the same population that has already been hit twice isn't correct.

Again, it all depends how granular you want to look at it. You could say some counties in Ireland haven't even had their '1st wave' yet the general consensus is that Ireland is in its 2nd wave.

This is off topic at this point, if you have such an issue with the term waves then I can withdraw. My original point was that there have been several surges across the US at this point but the Trump team have learned nothing from them and nothing from states that have kept the levels low off previous peaks.