Aer Lingus Fleet/ Routes Discussion Pt 2 (ALL possible routes included)

donkey balls

Regarding connectivity for freight anything that went out on our freighters was delivered the next day across the USA, Sometimes the heavy weight pallets be bumped for the higher priced express freight.
Not sure what the likes of EI charged for a PMC pallet compared to the 3 intergraters.

kona

Graham wrote: »

Not how I'd see the landscape but there you go.

has there been some news involving aer lingus which has stated different?

kevinandrew

The idea that management at Aer Lingus need to be creative and explore new opportunities instead of supposedly blaming everyone else is a bizarre narrative to adopt. The latter isn’t even happening.

The crisis is here and now, any action taken to protect the business must have a near immediate effect. Thinking about cargo conversions or attempting to enter completely new markets at a time when the industry is on its knees will only accelerate cash burn.

I’m afraid the medicine of the day will be job losses, a drastically smaller network and an even leaner operation. Anything else is pie in the sky for at least the next 2-3 years.

imfml

EI staff have begun a social media campaign that those who read here might be interested in signing and sharing.

https://www.change.org/p/minister-for-transport-tourism-and-sport-save-our-shamrock?recruiter=445998562&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&utm_term=share_email_responsive&recruited_by_id=91ba4900-a0ce-11e5-9955-f9694e64df94&utm_content=fht-23838036-en-gb%3A3

Phen2206

kona wrote: »

has there been some news involving aer lingus which has stated different?

What do you expect Aer Lingus to do? There is next to ZERO public demand for air travel right now and very likely for the rest of this year at least. Ireland's strict travel guidance compared to a lot of other European countries puts Aer Lingus at a distinct disadvantage to other carriers not to mention the 'flight-shaming' going on that is deterring some people who would otherwise like to travel even to green-list countries (e.g. school principals saying children are not welcome back at school if they have recently travelled abroad).

Tinkering around with one or two A330s for cargo ops is not going to solve their problems. You are critical of their response thus far - but if you were CEO it sounds like you would have the answers - what would you suggest they do that the management hasn't already considered?

donkey balls

imfml wrote: »

EI staff have begun a social media campaign that those who read here might be interested in signing and sharing.

https://www.change.org/p/minister-for-transport-tourism-and-sport-save-our-shamrock?recruiter=445998562&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&utm_term=share_email_responsive&recruited_by_id=91ba4900-a0ce-11e5-9955-f9694e64df94&utm_content=fht-23838036-en-gb%3A3

Seen that Yesterday my friend that works for EI had put it up on FB.

Inquitus

Listening to the news earlier they said Aer Lingus has so far lost €361m due to Covid-19. Huge money!

Graham

imfml wrote: »

EI staff have begun a social media campaign that those who read here might be interested in signing and sharing.

https://www.change.org/p/minister-for-transport-tourism-and-sport-save-our-shamrock?recruiter=445998562&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=psf_combo_share_initial&utm_term=share_email_responsive&recruited_by_id=91ba4900-a0ce-11e5-9955-f9694e64df94&utm_content=fht-23838036-en-gb%3A3

Has EI suddenly been re-nationalised and put under immediate thread of winding-up?

Tenger

Graham wrote: »

Has EI suddenly been re-nationalised and put under immediate thread of winding-up?

Well the latter is correct.

Irish Govt restrictions (as well as the **** show in the US) is hitting EI very hard.
Ryanair are also affected but at least they have their EU/UK operations to generate cash flow.
At this point most (if not all) other Euro airlines have received cash/loans from Govts.
EG. Ryanair and Wizzair availed of the UK aviation aid scheme.

billy few mates

Tenger wrote: »

Well the latter is correct.

Irish Govt restrictions (as well as the **** show in the US) is hitting EI very hard.
Ryanair are also affected but at least they have their EU/UK operations to generate cash flow.
At this point most (if not all) other Euro airlines have received cash/loans from Govts.
EG. Ryanair and Wizzair availed of the UK aviation aid scheme.

Why were a company who regularly boast about having a €4 billion cash balance allowed to borrow €600 million to further shore their position while airlines they've previously tried to buy up or put out of business are left to struggle for survival?
Are there any conditions as to what this funding can be used for or could they use it to snap up other struggling airlines..?

Tenger

kevinandrew wrote: »

.................
.......................
I’m afraid the medicine of the day will be job losses, a drastically smaller network and an even leaner operation. Anything else is pie in the sky for at least the next 2-3 years.

I disagree.
I think this situation is something that no amount of cost cutting/streamlining is going to help.
-4 months of virtually no revenue.
-Irish Govt restrictions stifling their attempts to restart flight operation in July/August.
-Forward bookings are close to nil.
-Most staff on 30% (and the TWSS is paying that)
-The US health chaos means that market is lost for at least 6 months.
-Brexit becomes a hard reality in 5 months.
-The uncertainty over Europe's economy going forward.
-And a highly probable change to previous patterns in aviation.

Job losses and become leaner are a certainty in 2021 and beyond, but EI have to survive that long for those changes to take place.

Graham

What assistance are Aer Lingus looking for?

I don't recall any mention of threats to wind the airline up (outside of the Unions). Are there others?

Irish Steve

Looking at all the different comments that are being made by governments and medical advisers across the world, it would be a brave man that expects any of the airlines that are at present operating limited services to be able to continue to do so for much longer.

Belgium, Spain, Australia, India, China, Brazil, the US, the UK, South Africa, all of them are seeing increases in the numbers infected and dying, we can see the reasons why for some of them, but others have been doing what was perceived as "the right thing" to control Covid-19, but for reasons that are not completely clear, even the "good" countries are seeing a return of the pandemic, and on that basis, I am thinking that Ryanair and others are likely to be unable to continue their level of operation for much longer.

Personally, I just wish that a lot more people would cop on to what's happening, and drop the attitude that it's Government control, and the rest of the garbage they are coming out with, and recognise that this pandemic is massively dangerous to life and economic futures, and not about to quietly go away and stop causing problems.

I'm tired of people trying every wriggle and wrinkle they can to massage and evade the rules, like the local pubs buying in food to get round the rules that say they should be closed, and large indoor house parties, and the bad attitude towards wearing masks "because it's not law", were people always this mean and selfish?

The financial and economic implications of this pandemic are beyond massive, a lot of the economic rules and systems that have evolved over centuries are gone, it just hasn't been recognised yet, and the future shape of a lot of economies are going to be very different from what has been happening over the last few decades, and the consequences are unimagineable in so many ways. None of us can safely predict what is going to happen over the next couple of years, or what systems and structures will survive. And while it's slightly off topic, I am not talking about the differences between FF/FG/Green or SF and others, the end outcome of Covid is going to bring seismic change to a lot of how the world operates, both short term and long term.

The problems being faced by the airlines is only the beginning of the changes, and it will very much hang on how soon a viable and affordable vaccine takes to emerge, and if that vaccine becomes widely available. Locally, the health service is going to have to be massively changed, in terms of how it operates, and spacing in wards, even the suitability of some of the older buildings being used needs to be looked at, and eventually, there will be a massive bill to be paid for all of this, worldwide, and that is a very uncertain future for so many things.

If it's a choice between airlines or a health service, however emotionally we as a country might be attached to Aer Lingus, if we have to start making that level of choice going forward, I suspect I know which will get the popular vote, and no level of lobbying in this forum will change it.

Nijmegen

billy few mates wrote: »

Why were a company who regularly boast about having a €4 billion cash balance allowed to borrow €600 million to further shore their position while airlines they've previously tried to buy up or put out of business are left to struggle for survival?
Are there any conditions as to what this funding can be used for or could they use it to snap up other struggling airlines..?

I would imagine because state aid rules (which the UK are still abiding by) wouldn't allow you to offer a loan scheme generally and exclude specific companies like Ryanair? Taking cheap cash makes sense for them and companies with cash piles often also still have loans outstanding.

smurfjed

So time is of the essence - the government needs to support Aer Lingus if it wishes to continue with its current non-essential travel advice. If it doesn’t, this government will go down in history as the one that presided over the wind-up of Aer Lingus.

Taken from the petition, regardless of the government presently pumping money into EI (PUP), does anyone think that the present manpower levels and fleet size can be maintained into 2021?

Graham

As a large chunk of the EI fleet has just been canned, returned or mothballed, its probably safe to conclude the previous levels of manpower just aren't necessary.

MoeJay

Irish Steve wrote: »

...

If it's a choice between airlines or a health service, however emotionally we as a country might be attached to Aer Lingus, if we have to start making that level of choice going forward, I suspect I know which will get the popular vote, and no level of lobbying in this forum will change it.

But this exactly the issue, this is not a binary choice between a health system and an airline, it is a binary choice about either helping the entirety of what is under threat (as you point out) or accepting the fallout of not doing it. In helping the “entirety” as I put it does of course include the health system...not for this forum though.

What is quite worrying is the total absence from any policy of anything to do to support aviation in any sense. It’s not the just support of the 4500 jobs in Aer Lingus that makes the difference, it’s the many more jobs that are created by the size of that operation based here in Ireland that where the fallout will also be felt.

What’s the point of supporting a supplier if there is no business to supply to?

This is not about lobbying on a forum, it is more about clarifying that what is going on, and has yet to become apparent, is much more fundamental and needs a massive effort across all sectors to get through. Apparently airlines right now don’t seem to be worthy of assistance.

I said it before, people who apply previous thinking to the problems that are going on right now misunderstand the scale of what is happening.

It is really, really bleak.

Graham

What financial assistance are EI looking for?

imfml

Irish Steve wrote: »

.....

If it's a choice between airlines or a health service, however emotionally we as a country might be attached to Aer Lingus, if we have to start making that level of choice going forward, I suspect I know which will get the popular vote, and no level of lobbying in this forum will change it.

But it is not a question of either or. We are an island and it is in everybody's interest to avoid reduced connectivity here, we need profitable Irish airlines in the future. To assist Aer Lingus makes economic sense, whatever form it takes post Covid it can grow again from that base.

In the context of requesting Government aid, it is worth noting that the reason the airline is crippled is the Government advice which we are all asked to adhere to. This advice has disregard the advice given to them by the European Commission, EASA and their own task force. Do as we say etc.

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/8298b-aviation-recovery-task-force-records-of-meetings-12th-and-19th-june/

Van.Bosch

Historically EI and FR have had similar passenger numbers at Dublin. If you look at the arrivals/departures board these days Ryanair flights outnumber Aer Lingus by about 7 or 8 to 1 I’d guess. Seems to me that Ryanair are trying to stimulate demand in an effort to fight their way through this crisis. EI are taking a more prudent approach and flying very selective routes only.

Hard to know which approach will work best - I suspect neither is pretty but I don’t think the typical Ryanair approach of basically creating demand through low prices can work in a situation like this. If that doesn’t work, what hope has any airline got in the medium term?

Irish Steve

MoeJay wrote: »

But this exactly the issue, this is not a binary choice between a health system and an airline, it is a binary choice about either helping the entirety of what is under threat (as you point out) or accepting the fallout of not doing it. In helping the “entirety” as I put it does of course include the health system...not for this forum though.

What is quite worrying is the total absence from any policy of anything to do to support aviation in any sense. It’s not the just support of the 4500 jobs in Aer Lingus that makes the difference, it’s the many more jobs that are created by the size of that operation based here in Ireland that where the fallout will also be felt.

What’s the point of supporting a supplier if there is no business to supply to?

This is not about lobbying on a forum, it is more about clarifying that what is going on, and has yet to become apparent, is much more fundamental and needs a massive effort across all sectors to get through. Apparently airlines right now don’t seem to be worthy of assistance.

I said it before, people who apply previous thinking to the problems that are going on right now misunderstand the scale of what is happening.

It is really, really bleak.

We're very much in agreement, the issue is that the industries affected right now are (in no particular order) aviation, public transport, hospitality, which includes hotels, B&B's, pubs restaurants, tourist attractions of all sorts, car hire, brewing. There's more, but this list represents a very significant part of the economy of this country, and others.

All of these are massively threatened, and they could be more so if the trends of the last few days continue. If all these industries are out of action, the ones that are left are providing the tax inputs to pay for all the people who need support, and remember that as well as the shut downs, there are things like a rates amnesty for a large number of businesses, and the list gets longer.

Yes, I mentioned the health service in particular as EVERYONE could be very much in need of that part of the economy if things get really bad, but all the other industries are equally important in the global scale of things, but some, perhaps many will not survive, and that will have long term consequences.

The Government is struggling to get its head around this, and the absence of people from real aviation (perhaps I should say real business) in government and the civil service, and the preponderance of publicans, solicitors and barristers, and people who've never worked in the private sector and had to answer for their decisions means that the entire decision making system is skewed and doesn't operate for much of the time in the real world, and right now, many of them are more worried about maintaing their share of the votes for the next election than they are about making sure that Ireland INC actually survives.

I was involved in various areas of aviation over a significant part of my working life, and I am very unhappy to see where this could end up going, but I'm even unhappier to see the massive damage that Covid is causing to areas of life that people haven't even realised yet, and there are so many people who are getting really nasty about trivia, and missing the real point of where we are now, let alone where we could end up, it's scary to even try to think about it in depth for any length of time.

kona

Phen2206 wrote: »

What do you expect Aer Lingus to do? There is next to ZERO public demand for air travel right now and very likely for the rest of this year at least. Ireland's strict travel guidance compared to a lot of other European countries puts Aer Lingus at a distinct disadvantage to other carriers not to mention the 'flight-shaming' going on that is deterring some people who would otherwise like to travel even to green-list countries (e.g. school principals saying children are not welcome back at school if they have recently travelled abroad).

Tinkering around with one or two A330s for cargo ops is not going to solve their problems. You are critical of their response thus far - but if you were CEO it sounds like you would have the answers - what would you suggest they do that the management hasn't already considered?

What would i have done? I wouldnt have prioritised working practice agreements and coming up with ways to get people to work for free. Id have given them their fair dues and made them redundant in the hope they could be rehired in the future. I wouldnt have waited months burning cash to do it either.
I was suggesting that they use cargo as a means to generate money, its was never a ****in hail mary that will save every job. There are still going to be 100s of people laid off.

Qprmeath

The South Korea PPE gig seems to have gone to another airline.

EchoIndia

Qprmeath wrote: »

The South Korea PPE gig seems to have gone to another airline.

What are you basing that on?

goingnowhere

The reason airlines have large cash holdings is down to forward commitments on fuel hedges and leases, they have to demonstrate ability to pay.

So while it looks good on paper that cash is just in transit really

Qprmeath

EchoIndia wrote: »

What are you basing that on?

https://twitter.com/michaelkelly707/status/1289898206378123264?s=21

Qprmeath

Qprmeath wrote: »

https://twitter.com/michaelkelly707/status/1289898206378123264?s=21

He’s not a reliable source.

omega man

Most likely to be transported by land/sea in future as cheaper. Also the demand is not urgent, thankfully.

kona

Deleted User wrote: »

He’s not a reliable source.

Hes half right.

WishUWereHere

Irish Steve wrote: »

Looking at all the different comments that are being made by governments and medical advisers across the world, it would be a brave man that expects any of the airlines that are at present operating limited services to be able to continue to do so for much longer.

Belgium, Spain, Australia, India, China, Brazil, the US, the UK, South Africa, all of them are seeing increases in the numbers infected and dying, we can see the reasons why for some of them, but others have been doing what was perceived as "the right thing" to control Covid-19, but for reasons that are not completely clear, even the "good" countries are seeing a return of the pandemic, and on that basis, I am thinking that Ryanair and others are likely to be unable to continue their level of operation for much longer.

On South Africa, and off topic ( apologies) anyone have any idea when all this CV19 uncertainty is over, who will replace SAA? Easy for BA ( assuming they are still around ) to cover the Ldn/Jnb/Ctn/DBN routes, but the others originating in Jo'burg?