Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Birdy

Tony Holohan has become very arrogant. He's on a right old power trip at the moment and pushing continually to maintain as much control as possible.

Did you see them sneering at the journalist who suggested he was being downbeat?

yosemitesam1

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The real hospitalisation rate is less than 2%, I think the majority of people could live with that. Flu is circa 1% hospitalisation

And the full recovery rate for Covid is 84%.

The people not doing well have diabetes, blood pressure, cardio and respiratory issues and are obese (not everybody has ALL of these obviously)

MrDavid1976

seamus wrote: »

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113416810&postcount=3015

There is what is on paper and then there is the reality.

There is also the constitution not to mention the Public Service Management Act.

LiquidZeb

LiquidZeb wrote: »

You were wrong. One of the Google scholar links you sent said that it had a rate of 0.011-0.33% chance of occuring in infected children. Also the British Kawasaki foundation have said they've noticed a decrease in cases so far this year.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31103-X/fulltext

There you go. I'm sure you will find some way to ignore the evidence now. It is a concerning trend and I pointed out the flaws in the Kobe paper where you got the 0.11-0.33% from.

stephenjmcd

Italian journalist who's had some excellent updates from the Milan region over the last few months. Update including opening of shops etc to be decided today and could go ahead from Monday. Bars, restaurants etc start of June
https://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/1260637394501537792?s=19

Doctor Jimbob

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I think we'll work through the measures a lot more quickly than indicated as long as the shít doesn't completely hit the fan in other countries where restrictions are being eased.

I’d really like to think this , but I’m worried arrogance is leading this now and Tony Holohan doesn’t seem to like any challenges to his way of thinking and his plans. It might be a like a personal failure if he had to ease these restrictions sooner.

Nobody is seriously challenging him. The 20km rule only coming in on 20th July is crazy!!! My sister and daughter in the UK have no mileage restrictions right now! They can go anywhere while observing social distancing

pjohnson

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Italian journalist who's had some excellent updates from the Milan region over the last few months. Update including opening of shops etc to be decided today and could go ahead from Monday. Bars, restaurants etc start of June
https://twitter.com/tancredipalmeri/status/1260637394501537792?s=19

Christ Tancredi is branching out with no transfer window. First breaking F1 news and now breaking general news :pac:

LiquidZeb

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31103-X/fulltext

There you go. I'm sure you will find some way to ignore the evidence now.

I literally quoted an article you yourself quoted on Google scholar. Just a minute ago you mixed up average age of infection with amount of people hospitalized. You haven't a clue what you're doing.

is_that_so

Birdy wrote: »

Tony Holohan has become very arrogant. He's on a right old power trip at the moment and pushing continually to maintain as much control as possible.

Did you see them sneering at the journalist who suggested he was being downbeat?

He's done well not to sneer at their collective dumb questioning over these last 10 weeks or so. It's his way of not giving any information up nor pre-empting decisions and he's really good at it. Sadly our journalists could barely be relied not to turn "hopeful" into Freedom Monday!

RandomName2

There has been some mention that if we play our cards right, and stay super paranoid, that in two weeks we may see the virus fizzle out here altogether



That's possibly a bit overoptimistic, but if that is the case we will have to ensure that we don't have another large outbreak.

Thankfully NI seems to be taking a slightly different approach to England. Either way we will have to be vigilant in relation to people coming into the country (unlike the first time). We will also need to have a robust system of contact tracing and faster testing in place, neither of which is at the moment.

FintanMcluskey

is_that_so wrote: »

He's done well not to sneer at their collective dumb questioning over these last 10 weeks or so. It's his way of not giving any information up nor pre-empting decisions and he's really good at it. Sadly our journalists could barely be relied not to turn "hopeful" into Freedom Monday!

Do you know what a democracy is?

uli84

So it starts, people are being asked to return to work but don’t have anywhere/anyone to take care of the kids. i’m on a single mums fb group and same question every day... what a mess up

RandomName2

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Do you know what a democracy is?

It is a dictatorship of the majority.

pjohnson

pjohnson wrote: »

Christ Tancredi is branching out with no transfer window. First breaking F1 news and now breaking general news :pac:

Dont know whether to take his reporting seriously after some of his shocking transfer rumours :pac:

LiquidZeb

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I literally quoted an article you yourself quoted on Google scholar. Just a minute ago you mixed up average age of infection with amount of people hospitalized. You haven't a clue what you're doing.

Care to actually comment on the evidence provided rather than attacking me. Show some critical analysis! Also, this was the paper I linked to which was a case study.

https://www.cesm-cv.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/kwasaki-y-covid19.pdf No mention of "rates". It was another poster who posted the study that you are referring to. But yeah, have a pop at me.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

I’d really like to think this , but I’m worried arrogance is leading this now and Tony Holohan doesn’t seem to like any challenges to his way of thinking and his plans. It might be a like a personal failure if he had to ease these restrictions sooner.

Nobody is seriously challenging him. The 20km rule only coming in on 20th July is crazy!!! My sister and daughter in the UK have no mileage restrictions right now! They can go anywhere while observing social distancing

Look what they are doing in other places is not an argument, this is how we are doing it. Let's not hold the UK up as an example of anything good. Oh, he's been challenged, very weakly in most cases, and they have acknowledged issues. They have moved to address them as a crisis management response, as it should be. Who knows what will happen over the next 12-15 weeks. On thing is sure, we will be switching to political over public health decisions quite soon.

is_that_so

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Do you know what a democracy is?

This post has all the hallmarks of the start of a rant. Go on then, let it loose! Remember though, all of this "anti-democratic" activity comes courtesy of the 1947 Health Act and its amendments.

LiquidZeb

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Care to actually comment on the evidence provided rather than attacking me. Show some critical analysis! Also, this was the paper I linked to which was a case study.

https://www.cesm-cv.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/kwasaki-y-covid19.pdf No mention of "rates". It was another poster who posted the study that you are referring to. But yeah, have a pop at me.

For the third time I quoted an article you attached a couple of days ago that said there was a rate of Kawasaki occurrence of 0.011-0.33% of cases. I fail to see how I'm attacking you unless you're the most sensitive soul who ever lived.

Tenger

Deleted User wrote: »

This is actually reasonable.

For the record, I actually do think the lockdown is too slow in relaxing. It's just some posters have absolutely lost the run of themselves calling themselves the "pro-economic brigade" or whatnot. Many of them have little or no understanding of the virus or how things could have gone a lot worse for Ireland. They seem to think that just because the hospitals weren't overrun, the lockdown was an over-reaction and dictatorial. When it was those steps we took in lockdown preventing it.

100% agree here. I have family in HK and Covid-19 was on my radar back in early/mid January. ABout 2 months ago I was explaiing the theory of the restirctions and tried to get the point across that if it is successful then the nation will not see any effects (from a health perspective) So far this seems to be the truth.
But I do feel that the 5 phases of 3 weeks each is too slow and cautious. 3 phases of 3 week or maybe 5 phases of 2 weeks each would be better. I dont think we can go back to 'normal' but at least have it before mid August!!

As an aside my nieces and nephews in HK go back to school next Monday. Their lockdown started end on January. But they have a population that already practised correct handwashing and mask wearing after 2 previous epidemics.

Another aside, 2 siblings (seperately) got infected and tested positive. Both were essentially bed ridden for 3 weeks.

MrDavid1976

is_that_so wrote: »

He's done well not to sneer at their collective dumb questioning over these last 10 weeks or so. It's his way of not giving any information up nor pre-empting decisions and he's really good at it. Sadly our journalists could barely be relied not to turn "hopeful" into Freedom Monday!

He was asked a question on Monday about people with Covid symptoms who tested negative. There has been a lot of discussion and evidence of false negatives yet he said that if the test was negative then it is negative. That is irresponsible. What he should have said is that those with symptoms should be isolating (as they should with any virus).

tobefrank321

Deleted User wrote: »

Literally, the person I quoted suggested it. It may not kill many young people but there have been many young people (IE <55 tears old) hospitalised due to COVID-19. If you are admitted to hospital, there is likely a lay off of 1-3 months before fully recovering.

People here are actually really underestimating the effect that COVID-19 can have on a normal young person. But it suits some agendas to pretend that only a tiny minority of people under 55 have any ill effects due to COVID-19.

Boris Johnson was off work for about 3 weeks in total, although he did work in isolation for a week. For those who don't go to ICU, its about a month off. Not the end of the world. For those who end up in ICU its longer. This latter group represents a miniscule number of the workforce and many were probably not in work already due to underlying conditions.

is_that_so

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

He was asked a question on Monday about people with Covid symptoms who tested negative. There has been a lot of discussion and evidence of false negatives yet he said that if the test was negative then it is negative. That is irresponsible. What he should have said is that those with symptoms should be isolating (as they should with any virus).

Way back during the hypochondriac phase when it was 3% positive De Gascun pointed out that people had other things. Having symptoms or thinking you have symptoms and getting a negative result suggests you have something else.

Please define lots of evidence.

In Ireland, we don't like to give an age breakdown of the deaths. Its not really clear why we are not doing this.
Tony was pushed on this last week and when he did provide a breakdown, almost 1000 deaths were in the over 80's category.
And most already had very serious underlying issues - terminal cancer, late stages of COPD etc.

Only 389 cases have been admitted to ICU. How is that possible when we have more deaths?

The only explanation is that most of these people are so sick that ICU is a waste of time. For example, they're already on their deathbed.

Somebody above said that over 10% of ICU admissions were younger people. Well, possibly... but that figure would only amount to 30 or 40 people.

Project fear needs to end. There is very little risk of anybody below 65 dying of Covid.

MrDavid1976

is_that_so wrote: »

Way back during the hypochondriac phase when it was 3% positive De Gascun pointed out that people had other things. Having symptoms or thinking you have symptoms and getting a negative result suggests you have something else.

Please define lots of evidence.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/expert-covid-19-false-negatives-not-a-failure-of-the-hse-but-rather-science-catching-up-with-new-virus-993997.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-13/false-negatives-raise-more-questions-about-virus-test-accuracy

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86047

I would think (particularly after the smear test scandal) that there would be an abundance of caution. At the very least a response should encourage isolation, if someone is ill they should go to their GP, and of course retesting could be done if symptoms remain. Rather it was dismissive.

seamus

uli84 wrote: »

So it starts, people are being asked to return to work but don’t have anywhere/anyone to take care of the kids. i’m on a single mums fb group and same question every day... what a mess up

If you don't have anyone to mind your kids, you can't go back to work.

People need to take a hard line on this and push back on their employers. I know an essential worker who had to do this; they literally have nobody to mind their kids, no parents or siblings. So they've been at home since the end of March.

They cannot be fired for this, it's a breach of the equal status act. It would be prudent though for the government advice to include a note that employees must not be pressured to return to work if they do not have access to assistance for children or other dependents, or if they do not have access to transport.

is_that_so

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/expert-covid-19-false-negatives-not-a-failure-of-the-hse-but-rather-science-catching-up-with-new-virus-993997.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-13/false-negatives-raise-more-questions-about-virus-test-accuracy

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86047

I would think (particularly after the smear test scandal) that there would be an abundance of caution. At the very least a response should encourage isolation, if someone is ill they should go to their GP, and of course retesting could be done if symptoms remain. Rather it was dismissive.

Link 1 100 cases here and not false negatives, nothing was found but a system error glitch flagged their status as negatives.
Link 2 US testing - enough said.
Link 3 Spain and way back.

MrDavid1976

is_that_so wrote: »

Link 1 100 cases here and not false negatives, nothing was found but a system error glitch flagged their status as negatives.
Link 2 US testing - enough said.
Link 3 Spain and way back.

So you are saying no issues on false negatives? And if someone has symptoms and tests negative then happy days? No need to isolate.

seamus

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

He was asked a question on Monday about people with Covid symptoms who tested negative. There has been a lot of discussion and evidence of false negatives yet he said that if the test was negative then it is negative. That is irresponsible. What he should have said is that those with symptoms should be isolating (as they should with any virus).

The existence of symptoms does not follow that there is an infection.

If the advice was to isolate regardless of whether your test was positive or negative, then lots of people wouldn't even bother trying to get tested.
You'd also have a massive issue with essential workers and people awaiting other treatments - these people need a negative test to proceed. If we went with "a negative isn't a real negative" all of those people would have to continue isolating.

The reality is that the odds of a false negative are so small that it can be disregarded.

Rodin

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

So you are saying no issues on false negatives? And if someone has symptoms and tests negative then happy days? No need to isolate.

Of course there's been false negatives.
People in ICU who are clearly sick have had a negative test only for it to be positive later.

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

Only 389 cases have been admitted to ICU. How is that possible when we have more deaths?

The only explanation is that most of these people are so sick that ICU is a waste of time. For example, they're already on their deathbed.

The median age of deaths is above life expectancy.