Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

is_that_so

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Yeah, leaves very bad taste in your mouth once you've flattened the curve government wants you to nearly beg to open up and be very afraid of going back into lockdown if cases rise..

Also, why isnt our government talking about any initiatives to get businesses back to work and back to increasing diminished sales? Why isnt Vienna's voucher idea for local businesses being discussed?

Phase 1 is really a test phase to see how we might live with the virus being around and to see where it goes. Ideas like vouchers are for much later. We do have that new business grants measure.

Conte..

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah but the designated people arent HSA people they're assigned by the workplace.

In terms of enforcement it seems like a very small number of inspectors.

Was to be expected

Sure it isn't it us doing all the work,. government did fukk all apart from shutdown and open up

No thinking outside the box whatsoever

KrustyUCC

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Day one of phase 1 and already all we are hearing is that if things go anyway wrong we will be going back into lockdown.
We are no more going to go back than the man in the moon. No EU country has gone back yet and they are way ahead of us in terms of lifting restrictions. I wish they (Harris and Holohan especially) would stop taking to us like bold children.

Harris is very bad for doom and gloom

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

Iran loosened their restrictions on April 20th while still getting 1300 new cases a day, and having dropped by only just over 50% from peak. Is it any surprise 2 weeks later cases started to rise again.

Loose restrictions can only lead to increasing numbers, Iran is an interesting example. Europe eventually will have a second wave too due to loose restrictions, hopefully immunity will play a hey role

hmmm

FishOnABike wrote: »

They've previously said reducing the stages to less than three weeks wasn't something they'd see happening.

Given the incubation period and time potentially needed for test and trace and the time needed to see the impact of lifting restrictions in each stage there isn't much scope to reduce the length of each stage.

They have indicated things could be moved from one stage to another. If all goes well it's more likely that some things will be moved to an earlier stage than any stage getting shorter.

Agreed. The phased approach is great, but it's a point-in-time document and will be revised as we learn more about the virus, and as we learn from the experience in other countries. Wouldn't fancy being a politician right now, it will mean that every interest group is going to be parked at their door for the next few weeks asking whether they can go next.

If admitted to ICU, there is roughly a 50% chance of dying from COVID-19 irregardless of sex, age etc. This is what is factoring into slow relaxing of restrictions. Do I think they are going through the process too slowly? Perhaps.

But their plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

It's easy to be a hurler on the ditch.

MrDavid1976

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0517/1138961-100-days/

Meanwhile, the government that has been making decisions of enormous import is headed by a Taoiseach who, just weeks before the virus struck here, had tendered his resignation to the President. It includes three ministers who lost their seats.

Does this mean there are questions around the legitimacy or authority of the government?

"Constitutionally there is not, but politically there is," said Prof Murphy.

"We have a mandate for the 160 TDs in the Dáil and literally nobody else. Although, constitutionally, ministers who have lost their seats still hold their positions, I think it is not sustainable any longer."

The Constitution envisages that ministers and the Taoiseach stay in office until their replacements are appointed, Dr David Kenny of Trinity College, Dublin explained.

"But the problem seems to be that no one really envisaged it going on for this long or decisions of such magnitude being made by a government that has effectively lost its mandate and can't form a new mandate in the current Dáil," he said.

"The theory the Government has put out is that because they are an acting government, or acting minister, they don't and they don't have the same responsibility to account for themselves to the Dáil or to Dáil committees that they would usually have. They don't have any obligation necessarily to come in and answer questions.

"That means in some ways we have a government that is making some of the most significant decisions that have ever been made by a government in this State and they are doing it without a clear mandate and without Dáil oversight

All it needs is 80 members of the dail to elect a new Taoiseach

Goldengirl

CalamariFritti wrote: »

As I had to experience first hand that statement appears not to be true.

A member of AGS told me first hand that you can not go to any shop any distance from your home. Only if essential (whatever that means) and if you can't get your essential item closer to home.

Of course members of AGS are not infallible either but I must assume they have been briefed properly and not telling me stuff they make up on the spot.

Yes. That is what my husband was told when he went beyond 2 into get handwash earlier in the lockdown and a friend was turned back heading to a chemist outside her zone. They said go to chemist near you instead!
Granted people who live in the country may find that an issue so Leo said , if you absolutely have to get essential shopping or medical supplies, but I don't think trips to other shops or garden centres would fall in to that category. Except for mental health reasons , maybe ?

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

Posters objected to using Belarus as an an example of a country that did well without a lockdown because it is a dictatorship without press freedom. In that case, why take reports from Iran at face value?

Are Belarus doing well? Just under 1,000 cases a day and growing steadily

LiquidZeb

bush wrote: »

Ye exactly, its all great now bumming around in the sun with the covid payment. They will change their tune when its the winter and they are trying to live off 200 euro cos their job is gone.

I'm actually shocked and people's refusal to look at things in the long term. They seem to think despite all the facts looking them in the face everything is as simple as just turning the lights back on. There's plenty of people who'll find out that catching covid will quickly be the least of their problems.

KrustyUCC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If admitted to ICU, there is roughly a 50% chance of dying from COVID-19 irregardless of sex, age etc. This is what is factoring into slow relaxing of restrictions. Do I think they are going through the process too slowly? Perhaps.

But their plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

It's easy to be a hurler on the ditch.

Wow 50% seems a very high number

I would have thought it would be far lower

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

If admitted to ICU, there is roughly a 50% chance of dying from COVID-19 irregardless of sex, age etc. This is what is factoring into slow relaxing of restrictions. Do I think they are going through the process too slowly? Perhaps.

But their plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

It's easy to be a hurler on the ditch.

Do you have a source for that? In Ireland.

KrustyUCC

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Wow 50% seems a very high number

I would have thought it would be far lower

I linked the audit paper released by ICNARC (critical care society in the UK) in a previous post.

growleaves

Are Belarus doing well? Just under 1,000 cases a day and growing steadily

Taking their figures at face value, yes. They've so far had 171 deaths out of a population of 9 million (if you believe them)

Another Communist dictatorship, Vietnam, reported 0 deaths. (They had a lockdown enforced by "loyal party cadres")

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

Do you have a source for that? In Ireland.

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/cbcb6217-f698-ea11-9125-00505601089b

Audit data hasn't been released from irish ICU's but from seeing internal figures in my hospital, we have broadly similar mortality rates in ICU.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

I linked the audit paper released by ICNARC (critical care society in the UK) in a previous post.

That's not what I asked.

bb1234567

If ICU survival is only 50% should we have reported at least 150 ICU deaths by now then? I believe there has only been around 60 ICU deaths but around 350 ICU admissions cumulatively. Only 63 currently still in ICU

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/cbcb6217-f698-ea11-9125-00505601089b

Audit data hasn't been released from irish ICU's but from seeing internal figures in my hospital, we have broadly similar mortality rates in ICU.

That's not my understanding. But as I cannot confirm it with figures I won't claim it to be the case. Can you confirm your understanding with figures?

bloodless_coup

What's the checkpoint situation these days? Planning on a long trip and would like to avoid being stopped at checkpoints having to tell fibs about my reasons for traveling.

Like being back in school coming up with excuses as to why my homework isn't done.

tobefrank321

What ongoing cases per day would be acceptable after restrictions are lifted?

I think if we are below 150 cases per day on average we will be doing well. Once it goes over 200 cases per day on a consistant basis, we could see restrictions re-imposed. I hope they are able to learn which sectors and industries are the major causes of new cases though, and they don't just impose blanket restrictions.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Loose restrictions can only lead to increasing numbers, Iran is an interesting example. Europe eventually will have a second wave too due to loose restrictions, hopefully immunity will play a hey role

Not really. If the number of infections are low, and the loosening can be done in a controlled manner, with good testing and contact tracing, R0 can be held close to or at 1. Sweden is good example of this in a way. They did introduce some level of control and stabilised the increase in cases and are now at about 6 weeks without any further increases - R0 about 1. The trouble with Sweden is that they have stabilised at about 500 deaths a week. Looks very good a few weeks ago when compared to similar countries, not so much going forward. But what other countries should aim for is to have the same level of control of increase that Sweden has demonstrated, but at a much lower level due to the impact of the tighter restrictions up to now

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

None!
I drove down using M1, M50 and N7 - no checkpoints at all.
Drove home via Kilcock, Trim, Navan and roads were clear.
The only Garda car was on the outskirts of Clane as I was getting near my sisters house, but not stopping cars, just driving.

My sister has just had to get a barring order against her husband so this was my genuine excuse if I needed one, she is vulnerable. Also I live alone and so does she. I didn't stop along the way either. People need to use common sense and get on with their lives. Fear is crippling people.

The worse thing that can happen is that you are stopped and told to go home. (and if that happened I would have just gone on to the back roads anyway and continued on my trip)

That was obviously an essential trip and nobody could say anything but that .
A lot of guards around Dublin even minor roads .

Ginger n Lemon

polesheep wrote: »

That's not what I asked.

I dont think he is serious poster btw, in case you had high hopes for getting meaningful data.

Unless, you are looking for covid impact on Brazil population, then he would be an expert.

polesheep

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I dont think he is serious poster btw, in case you had high hopes for getting meaningful data.

Unless, you are looking for covid impact on Brazil population, then he would be an expert.

Damn! And there was I using him as my go-to source.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I dont think he is serious poster btw, in case you had high hopes for getting meaningful data.

Unless, you are looking for covid impact on Brazil population, then he would be an expert.

So you are suggesting that ICNARC audits aren't meaningful data?

What happened to attack the post, not the poster?

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

So you are suggesting that ICNARC audits aren't meaningful data?

What happened to attack the post, not the poster?

I asked you for a source for Irish ICU figures.

KrustyUCC

On Sat there had been 389 cases treated in ICU up to that point

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/dfc259-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-saturday-16/

50% would be 194 deaths

I can't recall hearing things were that bad

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

I asked you for a source for Irish ICU figures.

If that data hasn't been publicly released, how am I supposed to source it?

I don't understand why people think that I can pull nationwide audit data out of a magical hat.

I think it's reasonable to consider the UK data in lieu of that.

setanta1984

Deleted User wrote: »

But there plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

Huh? All most people want is a reasonable time frame for the current plan.

I have issues with the ordering of items in certain phases, but the real problem is we are taking 3 months to execute our plan, when the rest of Europe have already eased things we are waiting until July and August for.
I think most people who want easing agree that our plan should be shorter and with some phases rolled into another. In line with the rest of Europe.

I still haven't seen a reasonable explanation why we are the only ones who need to drag it out to August when the rest of Europe are already at that stage now or by early June. Why are we different?

And saying "they locked down before us" is all well and good, but at the most anywhere was ahead was 2 to 3 weeks, it does not explain why our reopening plan is 2-3 months longer.

This thread seems to have veered more into the realm of whether the restrictions should have been imposed in the first place (maybe that could be it's own thread), this is a pointless argument as what's done is done, and is irrelevant now - all that matters now is how we get back out of it.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

If that data hasn't been publicly released, how am I supposed to source it?

I don't understand why people think that I can pull nationwide audit data out of a magical hat.

I think it's reasonable to consider the UK data in lieu of that.

You made a claim and I asked you to back that claim with a source. Without a source your claim has no validity.