Summer 2020 - General Discussion

Clonmel1000

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Seems to be getting even windier in Dublin

Dublin 5?

acequion

Graces7 wrote: »

Nooooooooooooooooooo! That would not be kind!

But it doesn't worry me. Mind you I don't have outside commitments as most of you do. I can stay in.

Lovely to see you back Graces7. Many of us really missed your posts and interesting updates from your western isle.

Gonzo

Very windy here in Meath too and not as mild as recent days, temperatures slowly ticking down day by day. No sign of anything dry, warm or settled between now and 1st of September. On the plus side at least we're starting to see spells of sunshine back on an almost daily basis after an incredibly cloudy July and first half of August.

Thelonious Monk

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Dublin 5?

Yes but there are many climates here. Some of the gusts are crazy right now.

daniel_t1409

was a lovely evening in wexford but clouded over now.

Artane2002

I thought it was a nice enough day after the last shower passed in the afternoon. The wind doesn't bother me personally but I can understand why someone would think today was a poor day.

daniel_t1409

Cleared up again here + nice sunset.

Gonzo

a dry day here in Meath, managed to avoid all the showers, hopefully the same tomorrow. cloudy most of today but there were some warmish sunny spells. Sky now fully clear.

Oscar Bravo

Tuesday could be interesting.... bit far out yet to start a thread.

bazlers

I think at this early stage we can count August as another disappointment.

Gaoth Laidir

Stayed dry in Celbridge yesterday, which allowed me to cut the grass after 4 weeks of growth. At least the farmers have had it good on that sense. I've never seen it so long.

bazlers

Im probably going to destroy this thread by showing my ignorance so maybe it needs a thread of its own?
My question is ( to me anyways) how come our forecasting of where a storm or hurricane is going to make landfall has such wide margins from such close times of arrival?
Just take for example a named hurricane. Forecasters may struggle if it will make land fall in Florida or Mexico. Why such a big margin?

Please no one take offence ye are all very intelligent and know your stuff. Just seems to me even since the 80,s we have not made great improvements. Improvements yes but just not there yet by a long stretch.
Is it funding or still just huge variables that are ever changing that we struggle with? Thanks.

HBC08

Thurs and yesterday were forecast to be washouts on the YR app here in Castlebar. There was one 5 min very heavy downpour on thurs but besides that it was 21 degrees and sunny,a couple more showers yesterday but generally nice,we could have been just lucky.
The forecast for today is mostly wet and so far it's correct.

kippy

bazlers wrote: »

Im probably going to destroy this thread by showing my ignorance so maybe it needs a thread of its own?
My question is ( to me anyways) how come our forecasting of where a storm or hurricane is going to make landfall has such wide margins from such close times of arrival?
Just take for example a named hurricane. Forecasters may struggle if it will make land fall in Florida or Mexico. Why such a big margin?

Please no one take offence ye are all very intelligent and know your stuff. Just seems to me even since the 80,s we have not made great improvements. Improvements yes but just not there yet by a long stretch.
Is it funding or still just huge variables that are ever changing that we struggle with? Thanks.

Nature.
Some things will never be improved upon.
There are many things humans have been trying to solve/improve on for generations that haven't gotten there.

daniel_t1409

Sunny in wexford this morning. Probably won't last long though.

Gaoth Laidir

The accuracy in forecasts has improved many times over since the '80s. It is not true to say it hasn't. Also, forecasters generally don't have a such a wide margin of error as to have Mexico and Florida as possible landfall points. That is also not true. Yes, their 5-day errors can be up to 200 miles, but in most cases nowadays it turns out to be less.

Reasons for forecast error are lack of observations (hurricanes are marine animals), subtle differences that grow over time, etc. It's not being helped this year due to less aircraft met reports.

bazlers

I didnt say it hasnt improved but compared to how technology has advanced and would have thought we could have used this to greater effect for more accuracy in forecasting closer to landfall.

Mexico and florida i was just prop exaggerating but 200miles 5 days out they have been alot more than that out GL. * with respect

Gaoth Laidir

In the very early stages of a system out in the east Atlantic, when it has not fully formed yet, it is possible that the final landfall is more than 200 miles, but in such a case that will normally be more than 5 days later anyway by the time it makes its way across the Atlantic.

But more back on topic, the recent increase in errors for our systens can no doubt be linked to reduced aircraft data over the Atlantic. Different models injest different data at different times, which then leads to inter-model differences, such as with Ellen. And finally, there are charlatans out there whose prime aim is to generate headlines, which only act to highlight the "errors" once those outlandish "forecasts" don't come to.pass (e.g. Ellen).

obi604

bazlers wrote: »

I think at this early stage we can count August as another disappointment.

Sure August is 70% gone. Hardly early stage:)

Gonzo

obi604 wrote: »

Sure August is 70% gone. Hardly early stage:)

it's been another poor August where once again we've had the worst and most forgettable August weather in the whole of Europe, but we've had worse. As poor as this August has been, it's still nowhere nearly as bad as July just gone.

Thelonious Monk

HORRIBLE in Dublin. Every time I go to leave the house it starts to bucket down. Ireland must have done something in a past life to deserve this weather.

Gonzo

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

HORRIBLE in Dublin. Every time I go to leave the house it starts to bucket down. Ireland must have done something in a past life to deserve this weather.

I thought i'd be able to cut the grass this morning after an entire week of soaking wet ground as yesterday was starting to dry out. The rain beat me to it so it's left again for another day. The speed/rate of grass growth has come on a lot over the past 4 days with the milder temperatures, spells of sunshine and bursts of heavy rain.

mcburns07

Feels like we’ve hardly an hour where there hasn’t been some form of rain in the last few weeks in Cork. A really poor summer overall.

SleetAndSnow

Drizzly, windy and gusty day on the west cork coast yet again

Gonzo

mcburns07 wrote: »

Feels like we’ve hardly an hour where there hasn’t been some form of rain in the last few weeks in Cork. A really poor summer overall.

same here in Meath/Dublin, even during the 'good' weather it was cloudy or misty and quite cool most of the time. The worst aspect of this summer has been the overall complete lack of sunshine although that has improved over the past few days with the Atlantic back in control oddly enough. We haven't had a sunny and settled spell since the 2nd of June so this summer is probably the worst summer since the 2007-2012 run of train wreck summers.

Oscar Bravo

Blustery, with persistent rain/ drizzle in Castlebar. Touch of Autumn in it today.

Clonmel1000

****e again. What an awful awful climate we have.

sryanbruen

New event thread on coming Tuesday's depression here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058106762

pad199207

Torrential showers in Kildare

Gonzo

rain has cleared here now and it's fairly bright and sunny but still rather breezy and feeling on the mild side.