Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

Boggles

normanoffside wrote: »

So if our stats remain the same or similar (or even improve) you'd be in favour of the restrictions being eased a bit quicker?

If so we are on the same page.

If someone in power could just say this, then I think everyone would be happy.

President Leo has been going off on tangents about it the past 2 weeks, shoot from the hip and all that.

Personally I think it is better that fúcking clown keeps his off the cuff opinions to himself and let the data and science guide us forward.

Making empty promises is dangerous, as people become complacent, as they all ready have done since the Bank Holiday weekend.

normanoffside

Boggles wrote: »

President Leo has been going off on tangents about it the past 2 weeks, shoot from the hip and all that.

Personally I think it is better that fúcking clown keeps his off the cuff opinions to himself and let the data and science guide us forward.

Making empty promises is dangerous, as people become complacent, as they all ready have done since the Bank Holiday weekend.

You haven't answered my question.

growleaves

Boggles wrote: »

President Leo has been going off on tangents about it the past 2 weeks, shoot from the hip and all that.

Personally I think it is better that fúcking clown keeps his off the cuff opinions to himself and let the data and science guide us forward.

Making empty promises is dangerous, as people become complacent, as they all ready have done since the Bank Holiday weekend.

Sorry but there's no such thing as data and science guiding us forward. The meaning of data has to be interpreted by someone, and there is no completely neutral interpreter and, despite waffle to the contrary, no reason to expect 'consenus' on this or any matter.

The WHO are not a neutral, dispassionate source of guidance and even if they were there would still be other ways and methods for making a determination.

How mad that you're saying the leader of our country should keep his opinions to himself on how the country should be run.

I think the longer this goes on, the more likelihood that scientists will lose their high status in society which seems to be based on the idea that they are a source of absolute and singularly objective knowledge about reality and the material universe.

Gael23

Pressure growing on many fronts to relax 2m rule

Strazdas

Gael23 wrote: »

Pressure growing on many fronts to relax 2m rule

I think it's starting to dawn on people just how unviable it would be to operate social distancing in many businesses. Fine for large premises like supermarkets, big department stores, homeware stores, warehouses etc but next to impossible for much smaller places with seating like cafes and restaurants, bars etc

Plumbthedepths

Strazdas wrote: »

I think it's starting to dawn on people just how unviable it would be to operate social distancing in many businesses. Fine for large premises like supermarkets, big department stores, homeware stores, warehouses etc but next to impossible for much smaller places with seating like cafes and restaurants, bars etc

Even the HSE has said it would make things easier in an ER setting.

Stheno

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Even the HSE has said it would make things easier in an ER setting.

Colm Henry (chief clinical officer HSE) came out in the same press conference and said no chance in the near future

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/hses-chief-clinical-officer-says-no-immediate-change-to-2-metre-social-distancing-rule-39230114.html

Gael23

Stheno wrote: »

Colm Henry (chief clinical officer HSE) came out in the same press conference and said no chance in the near future

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/hses-chief-clinical-officer-says-no-immediate-change-to-2-metre-social-distancing-rule-39230114.html

Only until the same pressure mounts on NPHET

Strazdas

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Even the HSE has said it would make things easier in an ER setting.

The way I see it, relaxing the rule could be worth the gamble. If cases started to rise again, then they could immediately take action.

Also, you could have different rules for different sectors. Two metre rule for large premises, 1 metre rule for smaller places that rely on seating customers / clients and take it from there.

Charles Babbage

podgeandrodge wrote: »

For me anyway, I was happy to hear that supermarket staff were/are not catching the virus in any great numbers whatsoever despite lack of masks. I have friends/family that are very concerned about doing a shop, mainly because of all of those lap experiments showing the virus creeping over aisles and infecting everyone.

That does not appear to have happened at all, pointing to ad hoc contact for short amounts of time being pretty much safe.

How do you know there weren't another dozen who had the virus and didn't let on but who gave it to a customer nonetheless?

jackboy

Gael23 wrote: »

Pressure growing on many fronts to relax 2m rule

As someone here said yesterday 2 meters means 1 meter and 1 meter means the end of social distancing.

Plumbthedepths

Stheno wrote: »

Colm Henry (chief clinical officer HSE) came out in the same press conference and said no chance in the near future

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/hses-chief-clinical-officer-says-no-immediate-change-to-2-metre-social-distancing-rule-39230114.html

I probably have read this piece wrong.

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5464157/coronavirus-ireland-social-distancing-one-metre-talks-paul-reid-hse/

Strazdas

Stheno wrote: »

Colm Henry (chief clinical officer HSE) came out in the same press conference and said no chance in the near future

https://m.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/hses-chief-clinical-officer-says-no-immediate-change-to-2-metre-social-distancing-rule-39230114.html

'Near future' could mean the next few weeks. It might be a different story in July or August.

One massive problem coming down the tracks is the reopening of schools and colleges. There must be close to 1m Irish students in education. Sticking to the 2m rule could cause the most horrendous difficulties going forward from September onward.

normanoffside

Charles Babbage wrote: »

How do you know there weren't another dozen who had the virus and didn't let on but who gave it to a customer nonetheless?

https://www.thejournal.ie/tony-holohan-community-transmission-5102798-May2020/

“WE HAVE EFFECTIVELY” extinguished Covid-19 from the community, according to Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan.

Plumbthedepths

Charles Babbage wrote: »

How do you know there weren't another dozen who had the virus and didn't let on but who gave it to a customer nonetheless?

Unless you were tested you wouldn't know you had the virus. Considering the self isolation payment of €350 would be on a par with average Supermarket pay I couldn't see someone willingly passing on the virus if they knew they were infected. You'll just have to accept that Supermarkets are fairly safe.

ACitizenErased

4 new deaths RIP

57 new confirmed cases

Strazdas

Today's stats : four new deaths and 57 new cases

Be right back

Glad to see such low numbers. May they rest in peace.

normanoffside

This is a long piece but worth a read, talking about the source of spread.
It effectively come to the conclusion that apart from the spread withing households, you are in most danger of picking it up if you spend long periods of time in densely packed indoor areas with poor air circulation.


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/coronavirus-covid19-exposure-risk-catching-virus-germs

When assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store (workers - all day; customers - an hour). Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low. But, for the store worker, the extended time they spend in the store provides a greater opportunity to receive the infectious dose and therefore the job becomes more risky.

So effectively if Supermarket workers aren't getting it, they are very unlikely to be passing it on to customers who only spend small amount of times in there.

Tippex

Flickerfusion wrote: »

Most of the large scale events that are already cancelled will not be running until 2021. There's no way you could reorganise most of them at short notice. There's a lot of logistics, preparation, getting sponsors, marketing, booking venues, getting licences and then you have to be sure you'd actually sell tickets.

You're looking at an absolute minimum of 4 to 6 month lead time, so any decisions made were made back in March for events that would have been running in June, July, August, Sept. Normally they'd be planned at least 6 months if not a year ahead. Even if announcements came later, those events were likely already suspended / written off.

So, unfortunately, even if it were safe to do so, very few big events could be fired back up at the drop a hat like that. It would bode well though for maybe late this year and 2021.

There's a certain lack of reality in the commentary. This stuff doesn't switch on / off like a light switch. If you've called for the cancellation of events this summer, most of them will simply not be able to restart. They're gone for 2020.

Personally, I'm aware of events that may even struggle to come back next year unless there's certainty about risk. It's impossible to plan into a scenario where you might spend a lot of money and have something cancelled at short notice.

I'm not trying to be gloomy, but without certainty and clarity those kinds of things just won't work and I don't think the Government or anyone else right now can provide that, particularly if there's an unknowable unknown with a risk of a second wave. Basically those are questions nobody can answer and I think asking the state to look into a crystal ball is a bit ridiculous too.

Hopefully things will calm down over the months ahead and we can get back to some semblance of normality and plan.

Economically the focus needs to be on safely re-opening the stuff that's easy to open and can respond quickly and that will get maximum benefit.

I had a call with a client on Friday and their clients are not expecting any gigs etc to happen until March at the earliest.

Peanut Butter Jelly

So if my understanding is right, if people are developing symptoms 5 to 7 days after exposure, allowing the 3 days for sampling and testing, we should begin to see any potential spike from tomorrow onward right? Given it would be the 8th day of the new restrictions

owlbethere

normanoffside wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/tony-holohan-community-transmission-5102798-May2020/

“WE HAVE EFFECTIVELY” extinguished Covid-19 from the community, according to Chief Medical Officer Tony Holohan.

It's fantastic news but I don't want to see people become lax because 'ah sure, community transmission is nil'. We will probably have to be on guard going into the future and continue with the measures in place:

Hand hygiene
Good Respiratory etiquette
Social distancing
Don't go into large crowds of people

Gael23

jackboy wrote: »

As someone here said yesterday 2 meters means 1 meter and 1 meter means the end of social distancing.

In some settings yes your correct but in others where rules will be followed to the letter not so much

Harry Palmr

Be right back wrote: »

Glad to see such low numbers. May they rest in peace.

It's Sunday, the numbers are meaningless other than as part of a rolling tally over 5 days.

wadacrack

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's Sunday, the numbers are meaningless other than as part of a rolling tally over 5 days.

Cases as on Friday, 22 May 2020, theirs a 2 day lag.

jobeenfitz

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's Sunday, the numbers are meaningless other than as part of a rolling tally over 5 days.

Stíl 5 on a Sunday is better than 55 on a Sunday.

Assetbacked

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's Sunday, the numbers are meaningless other than as part of a rolling tally over 5 days.

Meaningless. Right. It's over, let's get on with life.

Harry Palmr

You sure? Anyway it's nonetheless true to say that one days stats are fairly useless and a rolling 5 day is a better guide to what's happening.

The five day tally is 47.

The first five days of May was 107 dead so it's roughly halved in three and a half weeks.

Meaningless. Right. It's over, let's get on with life.

Calm down, I didn't say that and I'm not on that side of the argument I'm on the side of contextualised statistics

normanoffside

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It's Sunday, the numbers are meaningless other than as part of a rolling tally over 5 days.

For at least the last 2 weeks running our Sunday numbers have actually been on average higher than the subsequent Monday and Tuesday numbers:

Sunday May 10th: 236 Cases/12 Deaths (followed by 139/9 and 107/21)

Sunday 17th May: 64/10 (Followed by 88/4 and 51/14)

So for us, unlike other countries there has never appears to be a weekend Lag.

Assetbacked

Harry Palmr wrote: »

You sure? Anyway it's nonetheless true to say that one days stats are fairly useless and a rolling 5 day is a better guide to what's happening. The five day tally is 47.



Calm down, I didn't say that and I'm not on that side of the argument I'm on the side of contextualised statistics

57 new cases in a population of 4m+. It is not even worth mentioning at this stage.