Fianna Fail on 14%

Eric Cartman

Edgware wrote: »

The Greens are being led to the slaughter but have two options.

1. Dont go into government now and be slaughtered in due course for "abandoning the country in a time of need"
2. Go into government and be slaughtered in a few years time.
Either way they are goners

F.F. options.

1. Go into government now with F.G. and Greens. Martin gets to be Taoiseach first in a revolving Taoiseach role with F.G. In two years time Martin hands over the job to F.G. and resigns as leader. F.F. elect a leader who will deal with S.F.

2. If the Greens walk away now F.F. still have options, some less likely than others
(a) FF FG and get a group of Independents together
(b) FF talk to S.F. (with or without Martin) and pull a government together with Soc Dems.
(c) Another election (also known as committing hari kari)

F.G.
Similar as F.F. except I cannot see F.G. dealing with S.F.

S.F. Options

Obviously wait and see. Also start shown a bit of belief in T.D.s other than the Dublin clique of McDonald O Broin and O Reilly
Brian Stanley in Laois Offaly did very good work last week highlighting the Covid issue in the meat factories. Matt Carthy is another good operator and less whinging from Pearse Doherty would help also.

Interesting times ahead

There wont be a FF leader who does a deal with the devil (SF) in my lifetime anyway, a lot of FF members and SF members have to be long dead and forgotten before the party will resoundingly support that coalition. SF’s best bet was MM and using his desperation to be taoiseach. He wont see another election as leader.

IAMAMORON

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Playing the gender quotas game was always going to produce a lot of losers, women pushed to the ballot too early and faultering and losing interest in ever running again , women getting elected through virtue signalling and burning out too early due to a lack of experience . The excercise has been a complete failure and has done more to hurt the development of women in politics. Its easy for the looney left to make quotas as with SF as they all read off a hymn sheet handed down from above and are managed , it doesnt work for the real parties.

I cannot really agree with this, you are being too dismissive with what female voters identify with. Sinn Féin have obviously recognised this and their policies have attracted a more involved female membership. Sinn Féin are over the national average as regards FG,FF and the Greens are not. The rest of the TD's are left wing or independents. In fact of the 34, 23 could identify with being left wing, that is open to debate given 5 independents and 2 greens.

I get what you are saying about toeing the party line, but that is politics. Sinn Féin have recognised this and have adopted policies which attract women, hardly surprising given the influence of Mary Lou and/or Michelle O'Neill. I get the distinct impression that Gender quotas were not on their minds when joining.

Eric Cartman

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I cannot really agree with this, you are being too dismissive with what female voters identify with. Sinn Féin have obviously recognised this and their policies have attracted a more involved female membership. Sinn Féin are over the national average as regards FG,FF and the Greens are not. The rest of the TD's are left wing or independents. In fact of the 34, 23 could identify with being left wing, that is open to debate given 5 independents and 2 greens.

I get what you are saying about toeing the party line, but that is politics. Sinn Féin have recognised this and have adopted policies which attract women, hardly surprising given the influence of Mary Lou and/or Michelle O'Neill. I get the distinct impression that Gender quotas were not on their minds when joining.

Some women. I think its roundly unfair to claim all women are attracted by left wing and giveaway policies , it does work for some but there are many women in this country who run businesses or are high earners and fiscal conservatism is more important to them than whats between a politicians legs, the issue being any woman who does run in politics to any degree right of centre is dogged by abuse from the left and marketed as a traitor to their gender... see avril power... theres no barriers to being a woman in politics, aslong as youre not a conservative woman...

IAMAMORON

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Some women. I think its roundly unfair to claim all women are attracted by left wing and giveaway policies , it does work for some but there are many women in this country who run businesses or are high earners and fiscal conservatism is more important to them than whats between a politicians legs, the issue being any woman who does run in politics to any degree right of centre is dogged by abuse from the left and marketed as a traitor to their gender... see avril power... theres no barriers to being a woman in politics, aslong as youre not a conservative woman...

I cannot disagree. But the majority of Irish Women are not entrepreneurs either. They want more child allowance, better maternity facilities, better tax breaks for childcare, more rights for women etc. This is fantastic for women but everyone knows that the provision of more tax breaks and maternity options to women costs businesses' millions. A contentious issue I respect, but it is the truth. Most shrewd women who want to share a career with raising a family are looking for public jobs because they are getting a bigger bite of the cherry and proper maternity etc. Women in the private sector are getting better money (sometimes) but their jobs and promotion prospects are always being jeopardised because private companies recognise that they can be a bad labour investment once they start having kids.

All things considered I understand why women are seeking a more left wing interventionist style of government which protects their workers rights and allows them to start families. It makes sense. If FF or FG continue to not recognise this it could cost them more votes down the line.

FrancieBrady

Michael is beginning to sound like an outsider in his own party. Smacks off desperation and frustration.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/martini-fianna-fail-government-1009926?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1588592140

blinding

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Michael is beginning to sound like an outsider in his own party. Smacks off desperation and frustration.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/martini-fianna-fail-government-1009926?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1588592140

Eamonn Ryan is looking very Wiggy in that Picture. Could he not get a Green One ? ?

First Up

pgj2015 wrote:

He talked like the world was about to end, zero hope, I wouldnt be surprised if people took their own life after hearing the paddys day speech.

Well the world has ended for a quarter of a million people worldwide (1,300 of them in Ireland).

And far from offering zero hope, he spelled out exactly what needed to happen. I'd call that leadership but you can vote for whoever's speeches cheer you up the most.

Cal4567

IAMAMORON wrote: »

If you got off your arse and looked into this you would find the opposite, it doesn't work that way.

FF dissenters go directly to SF, they identify with the nationalist ideals there. They also then do not transfer well, the bulk of the Sinn Fein increase has come from direct swing FF votes. Sinn Féin voters transfer to other left wing groups, they don't transfer to FF. Similarly FF voters don't transfer to SF either, but neither do they transfer to FG. Most FF voters have a hardline loyalty going on. There will be exceptions but not significant ones.

Any FF or FG transfers go to faffy independents or some to labour or other moderate socialists. But they tend to not transfer to left wing ideals. But FF and FG do not transfer well between each other, you are wrong there.

I'll disregard the cheap rude dig but in my opinion there is a large number of the voting electorate who drift between FF and FG. It adds weight to both parties being almost mirror images of each other and yes, these has really developed over the last 30 years. Voters don't give a toss about civil war politics.

LuasSimon

Eric Cartman wrote: »

There wont be a FF leader who does a deal with the devil (SF) in my lifetime anyway, a lot of FF members and SF members have to be long dead and forgotten before the party will resoundingly support that coalition. SF’s best bet was MM and using his desperation to be taoiseach. He wont see another election as leader.

Deserves an unlike for that siht , the devil you say ..give us a break ....the DUP and British government can move on whats wrong with dinosaurs like you ??
Back to your cave

Hamsterchops

Eric Cartman wrote: »

There wont be a FF leader who does a deal with the devil (SF) in my lifetime anyway, a lot of FF members and SF members have to be long dead and forgotten before the party will resoundingly support that coalition. SF’s best bet was MM and using his desperation to be taoiseach. He wont see another election as leader.

Totally agree, FF can't afford to get into bed with the Shinners until that faint whiff of sulphur has totally gone from under the duvet, and that won't be gone till Adams, Ferris, Ellis etc are pushing up the daisies.....

We might also get an acknowledgment from Mary Lou that the PIRAs campaign was nothing less than an unauthorised Terrorist campaign, and once SF acknowledge this, then there might be talks way in the future?

The reason Sinn Fein can't currently be considered by FF is mostly because of their refusal to admit to the above. We all need a bigger buffer between normal politics & the SF brand before either of the two main parties can talk to them.

FrancieBrady

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Totally agree, FF can't afford to get into bed with the Shinners until that faint whiff of sulphur has totally gone from under the duvet, and that won't be gone till Adams, Ferris, Ellis etc are pushing up the daisies.....

We might also get an acknowledgment from Mary Lou that the PIRAs campaign was nothing less than an unauthorised Terrorist campaign, and once SF acknowledge this, then there might be talks way in the future?

The reason Sinn Fein can't currently be considered by FF is mostly because of their refusal to admit to the above. We all need a bigger buffer between normal politics & the SF brand before either of the two main parties can talk to them.

Not that long ago it was...'not until Adams has relinquished the leadership'.
I see the bar has been raised even higher now...I wonder why?

Fann Linn

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Totally agree, FF can't afford to get into bed with the Shinners until that faint whiff of sulphur has totally gone from under the duvet, and that won't be gone till Adams, Ferris, Ellis etc are pushing up the daisies.....

We might also get an acknowledgment from Mary Lou that the PIRAs campaign was nothing less than an unauthorised Terrorist campaign, and once SF acknowledge this, then there might be talks way in the future?

The reason Sinn Fein can't currently be considered by FF is mostly because of their refusal to admit to the above. We all need a bigger buffer between normal politics & the SF brand before either of the two main parties can talk to them.[/quote

The way things are panning out it'll be FF that will be the junior party in any future talks with SF.

Muahahaha

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Although she was caught out voting for other TDs I still think Lisa Chambers was a big loss to FF, she was the FF version of Helen McEntee and would be the person who was always wheeled out to debate for the party.

Now all they have is Anne Rabbitte who isn't as good a debater.

Yeah Lisa Chambers was a big loss to FF. Martin invested a lot of time in her putting her front and forward as the female face of FF but then she lost her seat anyway. The FF front bench is definitely fitting the stereotype of male, stale and beyond the pale.

boardise wrote: »

MM has been lucky that there's no obvious successor in waiting.
Of the three 'front-joggers' -while all seem able ,they lack any modicum of charisma.
McGrath is rather wooden , Calleary on the dour side and O'Callaghan possible a little too academic.( I'm referring to media appearances and general ability to attract or enthuse an audience.)
O'Callaghan being from Dublin might swing it.

I think O'Callaghan would get it by default just because Calleary and McGrath are so uninspiring. Question is can a Dublin barrister energise rural FFers, thats another challenge in itself. Whoever gets it FF are in trouble, theres a real dearth of talent in the party right now. Them polling 14% yesterday will be setting off alarm bells- lets not forget even after they crashed the economy they still came back with 17% in the 2011 election. Now they're in danger of slipping below the level of their lowest ebb.

Galwayguy35

Martin seemed to be in favour of talks with SF when he was interviewed at the count centre after he was elected, he must have got his arse handed to him behind the scenes though shortly after.

IMO he should have been shafted to the back benches years ago, the party needed to clean house after what happened in 08 and having a leader who was a minister in the government who brought the country to its knees doesn't sit well with a lot of voters.

And they definitely won't be happy if he gets a turn in the bosses chair.

FrancieBrady

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Martin seemed to be in favour of talks with SF when he was interviewed at the count centre after he was elected, he must have got his arse handed to him behind the scenes though shortly after.

Other opinions, including mine suggest he thought at that stage that FF woul have a lot more seats and would have had a majority.
Things turned out different.

Eric Cartman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Not that long ago it was...'not until Adams has relinquished the leadership'.
I see the bar has been raised even higher now...I wonder why?

Because Mary Lou and her lot have continued perpetrating the same 'deny the obvious' tactics that had set that bar for Gerry, that and theres still evidence that the army council, under his command are still running the show.

Eric Cartman

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I cannot disagree. But the majority of Irish Women are not entrepreneurs either. They want more child allowance, better maternity facilities, better tax breaks for childcare, more rights for women etc. This is fantastic for women but everyone knows that the provision of more tax breaks and maternity options to women costs businesses' millions. A contentious issue I respect, but it is the truth. Most shrewd women who want to share a career with raising a family are looking for public jobs because they are getting a bigger bite of the cherry and proper maternity etc. Women in the private sector are getting better money (sometimes) but their jobs and promotion prospects are always being jeopardised because private companies recognise that they can be a bad labour investment once they start having kids.

All things considered I understand why women are seeking a more left wing interventionist style of government which protects their workers rights and allows them to start families. It makes sense. If FF or FG continue to not recognise this it could cost them more votes down the line.

I actually do agree here, and for women who want to mix a career and family, I absolutely 100% see the appeal, there are however many women who either do not want children or choose their career far above having a family, for whom many of these parties hurt. I don't actually know of any party that really advances the desires or assists childless couples and singles in any way.

It would be nice if some party was a little less patronising towards these women
"I have an issue with the high rate of tax"
"but sure we have tax breaks when you have your first and second child"
"but some of these workplace laws really stifle my business"
"but your husband can take a few weeks off now and let you get back to work away from the newborn"
"I really think USC needs to be removed and reformed"
"were looking to increase child benefit"

any of the parties targeting women really only want to give them one of three things : more time off their career so they never reach the c suite , their husband to get more time off so he doesn't get their either or open the door and say 'now you can be a full time mother and full time employee and nobody can stop you, but if you stop you're broke, enjoy your 150 hour working week'

Augme

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I cannot disagree. But the majority of Irish Women are not entrepreneurs either. They want more child allowance, better maternity facilities, better tax breaks for childcare.

Eh..... Why would men who are in relationships with these women not want the exact same?

FrancieBrady

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Because Mary Lou and her lot have continued perpetrating the same 'deny the obvious' tactics that had set that bar for Gerry, that and theres still evidence that the army council, under his command are still running the show.

You are expecting SF to call their struggle for a UI 'terrorism'?
That's a bit like asking FF and FG to call the men of 1916 terrorists...it isnt going to happen. They had no official mandate either.

Eric Cartman

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You are expecting SF to call their struggle for a UI 'terrorism'?
That's a bit like asking FF and FG to call the men of 1916 terrorists...it isnt going to happen. They had no official mandate either.

yeah but I'm not asking them to apologise for the acts of dead men in a time before Ireland became a republic. Im asking Sinn Fein to apologise for the actions of a man who is still alive, for acts carried out in the 80s and 90s that were little more than taking pot shots at protestants and the British government.

FrancieBrady

Eric Cartman wrote: »

yeah but I'm not asking them to apologise for the acts of dead men in a time before Ireland became a republic. Im asking Sinn Fein to apologise for the actions of a man who is still alive, for acts carried out in the 80s and 90s that were little more than taking pot shots at protestants and the British government.

Remind me never to recommend you for a job as a history teacher.

SF merely wanted for Northern Ireland what the forbears of FF and FG (some of whom's grandchildren are sitting TD's) wanted for Ireland. In fact during the the same 80's and most of the 90's the self same FF and FG laid claim to the same NI.

BTW, I can't speak for SF but I strongly suspect you will be waiting a long time for that apology.

IAMAMORON

Cal4567 wrote: »

I'll disregard the cheap rude dig but in my opinion there is a large number of the voting electorate who drift between FF and FG. It adds weight to both parties being almost mirror images of each other and yes, these has really developed over the last 30 years. Voters don't give a toss about civil war politics.

I recommend you analyse the transfers from the last few elections. The further you go back the more polarised the results will be. The parties do not transfer well with each other. It is not as simple as civil war politics. It is Garrett v Charlie and Bertie V Enda or Skullduggery v Sleeven politics ( choose a side ). A lot of FG voters will never forgive FF for the crash and the Guinness tent etc. Prejudices remain.

In fact the concept of FFG is one being orchestrated by left wing politics. But voters behave conversely. There is a direct swing vote from FF to SF, but they do not transfer well. That is the difference.

James Brown

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Call another election now Leo. It would be ridiculous in the extreme to allow Martin to swan in now as Taoiseach.

Shinners think they're going to gain seats but they may well go backwards if FG & FF collude/step aside for each other in certain constituencies.

In the election, the only poll that counts, Leo didn't fare well and you talk like he's some kind of authority, he's only in charge by default and because of a global pandemic. What ever your views it looks like the public don't want him calling any shots. MM has more right to be in charge FFS as does MLM.

Mortelaro

Bowie wrote: »

In the election, the only poll that counts, Leo didn't fare well and you talk like he's some kind of authority, he's only in charge by default and because of a global pandemic. What ever your views it looks like the public don't want him calling any shots. MM has more right to be in charge FFS as does MLM.

No
Not according to Bunreacht na h'Éireann
The only person with the right to be Taoiseach at the moment is Leo
When a majority of T.D's agree that may change but I can confidently say it wont be MLM as Taoiseach because the country didnt vote in enough T.D's for that kind of change

James Brown

Mortelaro wrote: »

No
Not according to Bunreacht na h'Éireann
The only person with the right to be Taoiseach at the moment is Leo
When a majority of T.D's agree that may change but I can confidently say it wont be MLM as Taoiseach because the country didnt vote in enough T.D's for that kind of change

I literally said he was 'in charge', what are you on about? I was pointing out the electorate don't seem to want him in charge. As far as the public are concerned, based on democratically cast votes, MM, MLM have more public backing, than Leo, despite, get ready....you ready? Leo being in charge currently in a caretaker role along with the other bright lights of the also ran party.

Junkyard Tom

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Totally agree, FF can't afford to get into bed with the Shinners until that faint whiff of sulphur has totally gone from under the duvet, and that won't be gone till Adams, Ferris, Ellis etc are pushing up the daisies.....

Martin John Corry (12 December 1889 – 14 February 1979) was a farmer and long-serving backbench Teachta Dála (TD) for Fianna Fáil. He represented various County Cork constituencies covering his farm near Glounthaune, east of Cork city. Corry stated he executed 27 people during the War of Independence.

The double standards of Irish people south of the border are quite something to behold - it's bordering on a sort of collective neurosis at this point. The GFA will have been signed a quarter of century ago soon.

Eric Cartman

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Martin John Corry (12 December 1889 – 14 February 1979) was a farmer and long-serving backbench Teachta Dála (TD) for Fianna Fáil. He represented various County Cork constituencies covering his farm near Glounthaune, east of Cork city. Corry stated he executed 27 people during the War of Independence.

The double standards of Irish people south of the border are quite something to behold - it's bordering on a sort of collective neurosis at this point. The GFA will have been signed a quarter of century ago soon.

It depends on if you see the troubles as a legitimate war, I and most reasonable people do not.

Junkyard Tom

Eric Cartman wrote: »

It depends on if you see the troubles as a legitimate war, I and most reasonable people do not.

The main difference between the War of Independence and the Troubles was that the British pulled out of the 26 counties after the former.

Edgware

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

The main difference between the War of Independence and the Troubles was that the British pulled out of the 26 counties after the former.

Whereas in the latter Gerry and the Peacemakers jumped on the Stormont gravy train which wasn't too difficult as Donaldson Stakeknife and other high ranking Belfast Shinners were on the payroll already.

Hamsterchops

So Junkyard, for some reason I sense from you more than a little hankering for the good old days, when the armalite, stakeknife, & semtex were king :cool:

So with this in mind, here goes, specially for you.

There is no argument amongst all Irish & British parties (bar Sinn Fein) that the actions of the PIRA during the Troubles were unauthorised, evil and without our consent, hence their actions were not carried out in our name!

The Provos delt with anybody who got in their way (Protestant, Catholic, Unionist or Nationalist), all victims either had with their knee caps blown off, or their legs shredded (semtex), or sometimes even their heads were taken off (semtex again), other victims were made disappear, sometimes found years later with an extra hole in their skull.

Thankfully Adams has left the stage, leaving his bloody footprints as he went, leaving Mary Lou to take the movement to a higher level, however...

Mary Lou must now admit, that Adams PIRA campaign was nothing less than an unauthorised Terrorist campaign, waged without any consent from the Irish people.

Once SF acknowledge this (unlikely), then there might be talks with Fianna Fail, at some point in the distant future?