Relaxation of restrictions Part II

JRant

GazzaL wrote: »

There's a huge number of businesses that can implement better social distancing than supermarkets and other "essential" ones. That's not a criticism of supermarkets either.

I think people need to start stretching the definitions of what is and isn't essential and start re-opening. Some businesses have already done this.

Exactly right. While different supermarkets/shops seem to have implemented slightly different measures, on a whole they have been successful in looking after their customers and staff. It's a model an awful lot of other businesses could implement. What I've noticed is that compared to the early days of the restrictions, people are far more conscious of others now and will leave space etc.

NegativeCreep

What is our current ICU capacity? Think Holohan said yesterday there were 130-odd people in ICU and that was too many but I thought we massively increased our capacity?

Discodog

We should know by now where all the new cases are originating from. According to a German study supermarket workers aren't getting infected in any numbers. My anecdotal experience via friends who work in supermarkets backs this up yet they should be most likely to get it.

Unfortunately the critical job of contact tracing & testing is in the hands of a hopeless organisation. Might be better to put the Army in overall control.

JRant

pjohnson wrote: »

The Gardai aswell.

Its gone full conspiracy with people claiming the daily numbers are just made up.

Another stellar contribution. Some day you might even have an original thought and post something constructive.

Nobody on this thread is claiming the numbers are made up. Some have asked are they being "managed" ie. Releasing numbers as it suits them rather than just the plain facts.

snotboogie

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

And which government turns a blind eye to the cultural norms of a section of it's citizens and allows wet markets to operate?

The country that tells lies to the world all the time.

I'm not going to say any more on it because I think we all have a right to be ballistic about where we are.

I'm confident that the world will turn on China for this and correct the imbalance of the last 30 - 40 years. A pandemic and the biggest recession probably in history coming.

There is going to be consequences one way or another.

I think the point is that outsourcing of manufacturing to China has nothing to do with wet markets or Chinese totalitarianism, both existed long, long before any Western business arrived on their shores.

cmac2009

JRant wrote: »

Another stellar contribution. Some day you might even have an original thought and post something constructive.

Nobody on this thread is claiming the numbers are made up. Some have asked are they being "managed" ie. Releasing numbers as it suits them rather than just the plain facts.

Thought there was a conspiracy forum for this nonsense?

Benimar

I’m all for the Government giving some form of ‘timeline’ but surely it has to be metric based rather than time based?

The problem with saying that on May 18th X will happen, and on May 25th Y will happen is obvious. What if by May 22/23 the numbers start to spike? People will lose their sh1t because they were ‘promised’ more easing on the 25th.

We have to hit metrics - ICU admissions, total testing capacity etc. Not some date on a calendar.

kippy

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

We're in this because of some bloke eating a bat.

Also, New Zealand appears close to opening.

You'd want to clarify what you mean by 'opening' least you confuse some people.

average_runner

Discodog wrote: »

We should know by now where all the new cases are originating from. According to a German study supermarket workers aren't getting infected in any numbers. My anecdotal experience via friends who work in supermarkets backs this up yet they should be most likely to get it.

Unfortunately the critical job of contact tracing & testing is in the hands of a hopeless organisation. Might be better to put the Army in overall control.

The number of people allow at one time in a supermarket is low. The rate of transmission in the community is now low. They said last night out of 377 new cases, only 176 of them was outside the health sector.

People where I live are observing the social distancing in the supermarkets and the plastic shields at the tills are making a big difference.

average_runner

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What is our current ICU capacity? Think Holohan said yesterday there were 130-odd people in ICU and that was too many but I thought we massively increased our capacity?

Yes we have but we need to get it down lower to deal with other incidents also

JRant

JRant wrote: »

Another stellar contribution. Some day you might even have an original thought and post something constructive.

Nobody on this thread is claiming the numbers are made up. Some have asked are they being "managed" ie. Releasing numbers as it suits them rather than just the plain facts.

Any data or evidence to back up that assertion?

FintanMcluskey

gozunda wrote: »

Hi Confused.

Still dont get if after so many posts - no? Short answer - no it's not just about "people over 70" dying

The current restrictions are there to prevent medical services been overrun by keeping the rate of infection below a certain level.

Looking at the data from 26th April for example* when there was 19,383 confirmed cases

- approx 72% of all cases of Covid-19 were under 65. With those aged over 65 making up the remainder

Of the confirmed cases for all those under 65 - approx 8.5 % (1217) were in Hospital

Of the confirmed cases for those over 65 for the same date approx 10% (1418) were in Hospital

So yes this disease is affecting both young and old. Both young and older people are contracting the disease and of these a fairly significant proportion are being admitted to hospital.

Without restrictions those figures would be a lot higher.

It's really not that difficult to understand tbh ...

*https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

No figures exist for real time in hospital. 20k cases are since March. This is primarily affecting terminally ill and end of life. Seasonal influenza effects young people in fare greater numbers. We have no evidence lockdown works.
Your sign of statement is ironic tbh

appledrop

Of 377 new cases yesterday half where in nursing homes.

It's getting a joke now. Coming out + saying no no cant relax restrictions until numbers come down. The nursing home situation is scandalous. The whole country cant continue to be held on lockdown because they have messed that up.

The numbers in community are way down. They need to cop on + easy up on restrictions + stop bull****ing us.

drunkmonkey

average_runner wrote: »

The number of people allow at one time in a supermarket is low. The rate of transmission in the community is now low. They said last night out of 377 new cases, only 176 of them was outside the health sector.

People where I live are observing the social distancing in the supermarkets and the plastic shields at the tills are making a big difference.

No sign of the chap controlling numbers in my local Tesco in the last week or more, back to a free for all. Same with Aldi, the chap in Lidl is just loitering. No crowd control in any of them now.
That says numbers will go up not down in a couple of weeks.

NegativeCreep

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What is our current ICU capacity? Think Holohan said yesterday there were 130-odd people in ICU and that was too many but I thought we massively increased our capacity?

We increased our capacity, but at the expense of wide sections of the public and private healthcare system. One of things we need is the ability to return our healthcare system to a semi normal footing

pjohnson

JRant wrote: »

Another stellar contribution. Some day you might even have an original thought and post something constructive.

Nobody on this thread is claiming the numbers are made up. Some have asked are they being "managed" ie. Releasing numbers as it suits them rather than just the plain facts.

Thanks but managed = altered/made up/false/the truth is out there/fake news. Its all conspiratorial rubbish.

This isnt really the thread for constructive thoughts as any thought/plan is met by shrieks of "the people" wont take it.

lawrencesummers

Its pretty clear that restrictions can be lifted around the country with the exception of the Dublin Metropolitan area.

The Gardai should focus their attention on Dublin, staff all the access and exit routes, main roads south, east and north, police the on and off ramps of the M50 with major 24 hour check points for the next week actively turn people around who don't have a valid reason for travel and then that can then be reviewed in 5-7 days

There are large areas of the country that are rural with no cases and if travel is restricted from the most infected areas then these areas which are long forgotten about then they can be left forgotten about.

The HSE should then publish all the information in relation to positive tests, and the locations of these tests, along with the date of the positive test allowing places where no positive tests, or patients that are no longer contagious have occurred to move into the first stage of opening up.

There is no reason a golf course / cafe / school / pub in Connemara cant open for the immediate community ONLY and a big reason why a golf course / cafe / school / pub in Dublin cant. Its obvious that as it stands a local soccer / Gaa club in rural areas can return to training without physical contact where it would be foolish to do so in the greater infected Dublin Area.

The idea that these rural uninfected areas and Urban infected areas need to be treated the same with regards lifting restrictions is ridiculous

JRant

Discodog wrote: »

We should know by now where all the new cases are originating from. According to a German study supermarket workers aren't getting infected in any numbers. My anecdotal experience via friends who work in supermarkets backs this up yet they should be most likely to get it.

Unfortunately the critical job of contact tracing & testing is in the hands of a hopeless organisation. Might be better to put the Army in overall control.

And that's why the numbers are "still not where we want". They've shifted testing to residential and nursing homes. We will see high rates here because they've been ignored up to this week. They also still have a lot of these places left to test.

drunkmonkey

JRant wrote: »

And that's why the numbers are "still not where we want". They've shifted testing to residential and nursing homes. We will see high rates here because they've been ignored up to this week. They also still have a lot of these places left to test.

There so far behind isn't there an argument to say it's been and gone in a lot of cases.

JRant

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any data or evidence to back up that assertion?

It's not my assertion, so no.

average_runner

appledrop wrote: »

Of 377 new cases yesterday half where in nursing homes.

It's getting a joke now. Coming out + saying no no cant relax restrictions until numbers come down. The nursing home situation is scandalous. The whole country cant continue to be held on lockdown because they have messed that up.

The numbers in community are way down. They need to cop on + easy up on restrictions + stop bull****ing us.

You should really listen more. They said cant relax the restrictions because the numbers in ICU is too high

And Austria are only relaxing now when their cases are below 10

JRant

pjohnson wrote: »

Thanks but managed = altered/made up/false/the truth is out there/fake news. Its all conspiratorial rubbish.

This isnt really the thread for constructive thoughts as any thought/plan is met by shrieks of "the people" wont take it.

Absolutely not, managed does not mean made up or fake news or false. Take, for instance, the fact they have stopped giving the median age of those that have died. Why suddenly stop? Well, if you want to manage the numbers it takes the focus off the fact that the majority of deaths are very old people. It's doesn't mean anyone is peddling fake news or lies but more so changing the narrative.

Doesn't seem like it's the thread for you, yet here you are.

yosemitesam1

gozunda wrote: »

Hi Confused.

Still dont get if after so many posts - no? Short answer - no it's not just about "people over 70" dying

The current restrictions are there to prevent medical services been overrun by keeping the rate of infection below a certain level.

Looking at the data from 26th April for example* when there was 19,383 confirmed cases

- approx 72% of all cases of Covid-19 were under 65. With those aged over 65 making up the remainder

Of the confirmed cases for all those under 65 - approx 8.5 % (1217) were in Hospital

Of the confirmed cases for those over 65 for the same date approx 10% (1418) were in Hospital

So yes this disease is affecting both young and old. Both young and older people are contracting the disease and of these a fairly significant proportion are being admitted to hospital.

Without restrictions those figures would be a lot higher.

It's really not that difficult to understand tbh ...

*https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

If you allow for the virus travelling a minimum of 5 to 10 times further than originally thought, can those hospitalisation rates of 1-2% not be sustained if we have some opening up of the economy?
Flu hospitalisation rates average over 1% of cases and we have much more capacity than a standard flu season.
Even allowing for a potentially greater percentage of the population getting infected (which is by no means guaranteed) we can still cope with much more infections than are currently happening, unless the HSE hasn't actually increased the capacity of beds to the level they said they would.

appledrop

average_runner wrote: »

You should really listen more. They said cant relax the restrictions because the numbers in ICU is too high

And Austria are only relaxing now when their cases are below 10

Irish Times reporting that opposition told that the number of cases would have to be on a continuous downward trend before restrictions lifted.

That's never going to happen. We cant get rid of this virus we have to learn to live with it.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No figures exist for real time in hospital. 20k cases are since March. This is primarily affecting terminally ill and end of life. Seasonal influenza effects young people in fare greater numbers. We have no evidence lockdown works.
Your sign of statement is ironic tbh

Do you have any evidence lockdown (which is not what we are doing anyway) or restrictions do not work? You do realise that with an R0 of 2, which is lower than the R0 of this virus, given we were having 20 recorded cases a day, which is far lower than what now know there actually was, when we introduced our first restriction, there should now be 2,500 cases every day and doubling every week until we run out of people. That's called evidence. Where is yours?

drunkmonkey

The way the numbers were announced yesterday would have taken a matamaticisn not a journalist to disipher them quick enough to ask critical questions. Tony trotted out a lot of numbers and percentages in a short space of time, the journalists are also asking dumb questions a lot would have been known answers from the previous day.

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1255763072964313088?s=19

Big drop in ICU numbers yesterday

NegativeCreep

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The way the numbers were announced yesterday would have taken a matamaticisn not a journalist to disipher them quick enough to ask critical questions. Tony trotted out a lot of numbers and percentages in a short space of time, the journalists are also asking dumb questions a lot would have been known answers from the previous day.

I’ve noticed that he speeds through the numbers. Very hard to keep up

facehugger99

average_runner wrote: »

You should really listen more. They said cant relax the restrictions because the numbers in ICU is too high

And Austria are only relaxing now when their cases are below 10

You should really think more, ICU numbers are high because it's rampant in nursing homes - absolutely nothing to do with restrictions.

PatrickSmithUS

I hope they say that an antibody test and constantly decreasing deaths will lead to a quicker easing of restrictions.

Pinning everything on confirmed cases seems pointless when it's dependent on the number of tests that are actually carried out.