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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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EDit

Cyrus wrote: »

Interesting data here regarding excess mortality over expected over the past 4/5 years.

spoiler alert, we dont have any excess here, although others arent faring so well.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

Really interesting stuff. Would love to know theories as to why deaths are below normal for Ireland’s 65 yrs+ group. Is it simply because they are all safely tucked up at home?

seamus

joseywhales wrote: »

I dont know what the point of blaming the hse is, do you propose disbanding it mid-pandemic? Will we be in a better position then? they are struggling to get adequate testing numbers like many countries, are we to believe that is because they are not working hard or efficiently enough? Or is it more likely that there is massive global demand for the raw materials required for these tests?

Anyway, whatever our feelings about our institutions, the virus does not care, it will infect where possible, the same as the rain will fall.

Human sentiment is a factor here. Whether the virus cares about it is irrelevant. A lockdown fatigue spreads, more and more people will ignore the restrictions.

Pointing out that the virus doesn't care about people being bored, won't convince them to stick with the restrictions.

If we want people to stick with the restrictions, we need to give them something to aim for. For most people, they've been in lockdown with no end goal in sight. A further lockdown without solid reasoning will lead more people to say, "Feck this, what's the point if I'm being told it's not working?".
Whereas a clearer goal, coupled with a reason for solidarity, will give people a bump for another week; "We need more time, not because you haven't done enough, but because we're just not ready yet, the things we wanted to have in place, have been delayed by the global demand."

mandrake04

PMBC wrote: »

What does that mean in practical terms -POC?
Thanks for a very informative post.

Point of Care.

This is usually just a desktop instrument that you can only do 1 test at a time usually takes anything from 15-45 mins per test.

Your normal Molecular instrument using a Thermocycler or a light cycler can run a 96 well plate. You can do a batch 94 samples plus a Positive and a Negative control to check if it’s successful. Takes 90min for extraction and 90mins for Amplification but you have 94 patient results

The big high throughput Analysers can run several batches simultaneously.

Germany, S. Korea, UAE, NZ & Australia use these high throughput systems as they are a lot of firepower, like 30mm machine gun.

Your POC is like a spud gun in comparison

KrustyUCC

Erra a lot really don't care about the pubs

They will have a bigger issue stopping people travelling to see friends, family, those in relationships for another two months I think

easypazz

Phased open of pretty much of everything in Spain during May, with capacity reduced.

That includes bars and restaurants.

It will take some effort for the government to try and keep the bars and restaurants closed here in June.

Penfailed

Penfailed wrote: »

Can you explain the issues in residential hospitals/nursing homes in the UK, in Spain, in Germany? Or even closer to home, in Donegal where there was no transfer of patients? It's not solely down to HSE incompetence.

Is everyone that wants to open up just going to keep battering the HSE over the nursing/care homes? Is anyone going to address what I've pointed out above ^^^?

snotboogie

is_that_so wrote: »

Spain's 4 phase plan -clear path. Not absolutely set in stone on dates and there are some approximate dates in it.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135574-spain-details-four-phase-plan-to-ease-lockdown/

Phase 4 is still massively disruptive, are people really that eager to sit in a restaurant 2 meters away from another table or sit on a bar terrace at 30% capacity where you can't go near anyone else?

[Deleted User]

is_that_so wrote: »

They can't until they can agree to elect a new Taoiseach.

They can, by agreeing to elect a new Taoiseach

KrustyUCC

They've had two months to get things right and we're hugely off where we need to be regarding testing

We will still probably be far away from 100,000 tests per week by the 18th as well

Lack of testing is the justification being used for extending the lockdown

It's out of the hands of the general public who Leo and Holohan were blaming for an extension they knew they needed re testing

alwald

GazzaL wrote: »

R0 has been in the target zone for weeks and steadily decreasing. We never hit full ICU capacity, and both ICU occupancy and hospital admissions have been declining for weeks. They are where they need to be. Unless you're telling me they've lied about our R0 and ICU figures?

Do you have any idea about the current levels, the desired levels and the potential increase if we lift the restrictions??
My guess is you don't have a clue

[Deleted User]

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Any lengthening of them must be purely a health decision. Dr. Holohan knows more about this virus than any of us and his recommendations are fine by me.

Apologies in advance and not intending to cause any upset but tell Vicky Phelan and Emma Mhic Mathuna (RIP

) that .

joseywhales

I dont know what the point of blaming the hse is, do you propose disbanding it mid-pandemic? Will we be in a better position then? they are struggling to get adequate testing numbers like many countries, are we to believe that is because they are not working hard or efficiently enough? Or is it more likely that there is massive global demand for the raw materials required for these tests?

Anyway, whatever our feelings about our institutions, the virus does not care, it will infect where possible, the same as the rain will fall.

Cyrus

Interesting data here regarding excess mortality over expected over the past 4/5 years.

spoiler alert, we dont have any excess here, although others arent faring so well.

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps

GazzaL

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Just because we want an easing of restrictions doesn't mean it's a good idea.

If you think about it it's not in Ireland's interest economically to have these restrictions in place a day longer than necessary. They are costing a lot of money.

Any lengthening of them must be purely a health decision. Dr. Holohan knows more about this virus than any of us and his recommendations are fine by me.

He knows more about cervical checks than the rest of us too. He and the HSE are not above being questioned.

PMBC

Their main problem was lack of up to date instrumentation and having people who know how to work it. They increased testing around the country in something like 40 labs but a lot of these are POC or point of care even the gear in their main labs is only medium sized.[/QUOTE]

What does that mean in practical terms -POC?
Thanks for a very informative post.

Henry Ford III

Just because we want an easing of restrictions doesn't mean it's a good idea.

If you think about it it's not in Ireland's interest economically to have these restrictions in place a day longer than necessary. They are costing a lot of money.

Any lengthening of them must be purely a health decision. Dr. Holohan knows more about this virus than any of us and his recommendations are fine by me.

[Deleted User]

growleaves wrote: »

They're already adding in not only people who "died from" and "died with" Covid (i.e. the tested) but also "dying under suspicion of" having Covid. Untested deaths are a part of this total. Are you unaware of that? How many more can there be if they are already including people who might not even have had it.

False. You are assuming the success of the lockdown, and then using that as a retroactive justification for it.

The projections which estimated millions of deaths were revised downwards by the scientists who made them. The Fauci-Birx team, the Imperial College London team etc. predicted millions of deaths then retracted those predictions in the face of further evidence.

The evidence being the success of the lockdowns

Theboinkmaster

ChikiChiki wrote: »

What a pile of nonsense. Back up your last sentence with some facts please.

Which exact part is nonsense? what do you disagree with and why exactly?

polesheep

GazzaL wrote: »

It is a fact that the HSE have failed to meet their testing targets. They are the only numbers that jump off the page. We are where we need to be. The HSE are not where they need to be. But who wants yet another HSE scandal? So blame someone else or some other figures. We'll all be in our graves before the problems in the HSE are solved, so why should we allow them to destroy everyone's lives?

I think we have to stop thinking about 'problems in the HSE', because the problem IS the HSE. It should never have been established in it's current form. It needs to be broken down into a number of parts. I don't mean regionally, that was also a disaster, I mean functionally.

[Deleted User]

growleaves wrote: »

If deaths in non-locked down countries such as Sweden were substantially higher - in line with predictions given in the models by Fauci-Birx, Ferugson-Imperial Team or Prof Nolan, or with the more vague prediction that countries who didn't lock down would be 'like Italy' (meaning they would have a Lombardy or Madrid type crisis).

Then I would believe it.

Because so far the success of the lockdown is assumed - in which case it can't be (un)proven - against flawed projections of 100,000s of deaths with no lockdown.

We've seen that the people who have died are the elderly, vulnerable, very sick people who might have died during H1N1, Swine Flu or any similar disease. For the projections to even make sense, healthy able-bodied people should be well-represented within the current deaths, which of course they aren't.

Sweden have not done nothing. In addition they tend to comply with the directives that are there, have a good sense of social responsibility and there fore wont head to the bar when not feeling feel, and they tend to live alone a lot more than most places in Europe. The Swedish model is not a picture of what would have happened here if we did nothing

[Deleted User]

road_high wrote: »

Who are? If They’re not on the important list surely they can’t? And anyone selling is caught by the 2km roadblocks anyhow

I got a call yesterday from my water filtration suppliers (something I got 4years ago as I live in a very hard water area). They’re in my area next week and are wondering if I needed a service for this system. As I’ve always been working I’ve never yet got it serviced as someone needs to be home.

Delighted to be able to get this done at last, Service Engineer will be fully compliant with masking ,gloves, social distancing . I’ll stay out in the garden for the duration. I’m delighted to be able to give them some business too as it’s an Irish company.

Also had to buy a new washing machine as I’ve been 3 weeks without one. Got one today on Harvey Norman with extra 10% discount. Got a call from their sales manager 20 minutes after ordering to confirm delivery before the weekend, brilliant service!

Businesses are getting back into the game even if it’s a changed game . I for one applaud their positivity, customer service and courage. It sure beats the negativity of some posters here who would like to see the entire country locked up until next Winter.

FishOnABike

GazzaL wrote: »

I've been getting emails from companies this morning saying they're planning on re-opening on Tuesday.

What they're planning now and what happens may not be the same - "Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans."

polesheep

Concretejungle wrote: »

Why would you think that we are being told that we are not where we need to be.
Do you not think that the Govt. would be deligted to ease the restrictions if they thought that was a good idea. They know the public are fed up and wouldn't that be a great way to get brownie points by doing what the public want. They obviously know better and we have to respect that.

They are covering for the debacle in the nursing homes.

As for the bit in bold, there's a fine line between compliance and non-compliance.

KrustyUCC

Concretejungle wrote: »

So if the testing is not ready yet then we are not where we need to be, which will mean more deaths if the restrictions are lifted.
So which is the better way of destroying our lives, destroying them permanently by lifting the restrictions now or destroying them temporarily by waiting a bit longer. ?

How long is waiting a bit longer?

seamus

Rodin wrote: »

If the active cases is going up, having previously fallen, then that is because the new cases are increasing.
There is a direct correlation.

Active cases = Total Cases - Deaths - Recovered.

Because our Recovered figures are not gathered or updated day-to-day, our "active" figure has little merit.

It halved overnight last week. So in our case, our active cases number tells us nothing. It will only go down if more people die than are diagnosed. And that would be a very bad thing.

facehugger99

BillyBiggs wrote: »

Dr. Leo softening us up for more lockdown

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0429/1135508-restrictions-work/

What an absolute crock.

How many deaths and ICU admissions are due to the nursing homes fiasco?

Now they're using their own mismanagement to justify extending the current lockdown for further weeks.

GazzaL

Concretejungle wrote: »

So if the testing is not ready yet then we are not where we need to be, which will mean more deaths if the restrictions are lifted.
So which is the better way of destroying our lives, destroying them permanently by lifting the restrictions now or destroying them temporarily by waiting a bit longer. ?

They've been talking about 15000 tests per day since mid March if not before. How long will you give the HSE to pull the finger out? Another month and a half? Those incompetents may never hit that target. Meanwhile, people can't see their families, jobs and businesses are being permanently lost, and people aren't getting treatment for non-COVID illnesses.

cython

Rodin wrote: »

If the active cases is going up, having previously fallen, then that is because the new cases are increasing.
There is a direct correlation.

No such conclusion can be actually be drawn in Ireland due to the way they are counted. Nobody is tested to confirm a recovered status, and pretty much everyone that was diagnosed was assumed active until a few days ago when they seem to have just asserted as a once off that a cohort were recovered, which chopped the number, and since then they've just continued adding new ones, and not yet made another such assertion of recovery.

ChikiChiki

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

building providers, engineering firms.

Why wouldn't they open up? The risk on Tuesday is actually a lot less than what the risk will be in 3 months time when a lot more open.

Open today/open in 3 weeks - no difference.

lockdown is killing more people than CV-19 that's obvious.

What a pile of nonsense. Back up your last sentence with some facts please.

Rodin

GazzaL wrote: »

It is a fact that the HSE have failed to meet their testing targets. They are the only numbers that jump off the page. We are where we need to be. The HSE are not where they need to be. But who wants yet another HSE scandal? So blame someone else or some other figures. We'll all be in our graves before the problems in the HSE are solved, so why should we allow them to destroy everyone's lives?

What would you do if you were in charge ?
A few points....