Sweden avoiding lockdown

niallo27

Gary kk wrote: »

Your right Niall dont let anyone tell you other wise

Well they did, it was 36 six days ago and 14 yesterday. That's a 60% drop.

STB.

niallo27 wrote: »

Well they did, it was 36 six days ago and 14 yesterday. That's a 60% drop.

Which means nothing. You cannot look at those figures that's its a 60% drop over a day. There are loads in ICU in a bad way.


Since the 1st of April we have went from 85 to 334 deaths. The deaths are going UP and UP.

biko

Why are you guys discussing Irish numbers in this Sweden thread?

Gary kk

To compare

STB.

biko wrote: »

Why are you guys discussing Irish numbers in this Sweden thread?

They cannot even get the Swedish numbers right. You've someone quoting figures as if Sweden are doing something spectacular. Their rates spiked twice in last week.

And, Sweden are doing feck all testing. Their death rate is 8%.

They have 900 in ICU in a critical condition.

Their numbers of infection are unknown. They are currently following an unknown herd immunity plan!

Bit cynical

STB. wrote: »

They are currently following an unknown herd immunity plan!

I don't think there's much of a problem with the concept of herd immunity. Most people who get the disease develop antibodies and some sort of immunity. If the number with immunity gets above a certain level, then R0 number falls below 1 and eventually dies out since their aren't enough hosts to infect.

The problem is that as a strategy on its own without other measures it leads to the medical services being overrun. Hence most countries have some sort of social distancing, restrictions or lockdown to try to "flatten the curve". Sweden has some of these too but leans towards a light touch relying more on the commonsense of its population to do this flattening.

The risk Sweden is taking is that this reliance on the population may not be enough and their services will not be able to cope. The benefit, however, is that they will reach herd immunity before other countries maintaining stricter lockdown and with much less damage to the Swedish economy.

Our strategy here, with our much stricter measures, also contains risks. We can't afford to maintain lockdown for the much longer period it takes to develop herd immunity so we are dependent on vaccines being developed soon or at least anti-viral drugs which will keep people out of hospital and allow some sort of normality for the rest. I've got a feeling that a drug will be approved in a couple of months but really we have no idea when that will be and certainly vaccines are a long way off.

Widdensushi

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think there's much of a problem with the concept of herd immunity. Most people who get the disease develop antibodies and some sort of immunity. If the number with immunity gets above a certain level, then R0 number falls below 1 and eventually dies out since their aren't enough hosts to infect.

The problem is that as a strategy on its own without other measures it leads to the medical services being overrun. Hence most countries have some sort of social distancing, restrictions or lockdown to try to "flatten the curve". Sweden has some of these too but leans towards a light touch relying more on the commonsense of its population to do this flattening.

The risk Sweden is taking is that this reliance on the population may not be enough and their services will not be able to cope. The benefit, however, is that they will reach herd immunity before other countries maintaining stricter lockdown and with much less damage to the Swedish economy.

Our strategy here, with our much stricter measures, also contains risks. We can't afford to maintain lockdown for the much longer period it takes to develop herd immunity so we are dependent on vaccines being developed soon or at least anti-viral drugs which will keep people out of hospital and allow some sort of normality for the rest. I've got a feeling that a drug will be approved in a couple of months but really we have no idea when that will be and certainly vaccines are a long way off.

excellent post, sums it up nicely, it will be a long time till it can be definitively called a success or failure

ILoveYourVibes

Swedens whole approach is testing.

Every country that has testing and better yet testing WITH lockdown is doing better than just lockdown.

IMO the best approach is lockdown and aggressive testing.

STB.

Bit cynical wrote: »

I don't think there's much of a problem with the concept of herd immunity. Most people who get the disease develop antibodies and some sort of immunity. If the number with immunity gets above a certain level, then R0 number falls below 1 and eventually dies out since their aren't enough hosts to infect.

The problem is that as a strategy on its own without other measures it leads to the medical services being overrun. Hence most countries have some sort of social distancing, restrictions or lockdown to try to "flatten the curve". Sweden has some of these too but leans towards a light touch relying more on the commonsense of its population to do this flattening.

The risk Sweden is taking is that this reliance on the population may not be enough and their services will not be able to cope. The benefit, however, is that they will reach herd immunity before other countries maintaining stricter lockdown and with much less damage to the Swedish economy.

Our strategy here, with our much stricter measures, also contains risks. We can't afford to maintain lockdown for the much longer period it takes to develop herd immunity so we are dependent on vaccines being developed soon or at least anti-viral drugs which will keep people out of hospital and allow some sort of normality for the rest. I've got a feeling that a drug will be approved in a couple of months but really we have no idea when that will be and certainly vaccines are a long way off.

You don't test out unproven concepts live on your population.

Herd Immunity (or Just do nothing as its more widely known) is not a vaccine. There are reinfection/reactivated virus cases now in South Korea. Immunity is not a given.

Sweden have the same ICU capacity we have. The UK started off with this nonsense and they are in serious trouble with stupid assumptions that coronavirus behaves like the flu. Sweden will soon change their tune when the ICU's become overwhelmed.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Swedens whole approach is testing.

Sweden's problem is testing. They have been doing feck all! Why do you think their death rate is 8% of cases ?

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

And, Sweden are doing feck all testing.

They are testing.

They are even sending people self test kits to see if it works.

Danzy

Problem with herd immunity is that this disease puts so many in hospital that the medical system collapses quickly.

So is it even possible without seeing a mass casualty event.

ILoveYourVibes

Danzy wrote: »

Problem with herd immunity is that this disease puts so many in hospital that the medical system collapses quickly.

So is it even possible without seeing a mass casualty event.

Sweden has 10k cases a population of 10 million and 900 deaths.

We have a populations of 6 million 10k cases and about 365 deaths

Their health system was ruled by the global health security index to be one of the most prepared countries for a pandemic though.

They ranked 7th overall.

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

You don't test out unproven concepts live on your population.

Herd Immunity (or Just do nothing as its more widely known) is not a vaccine. There are reinfection/reactivated virus cases now in South Korea. Immunity is not a given.

Sweden have the same ICU capacity we have. The UK started off with this nonsense and they are in serious trouble with stupid assumptions that coronavirus behaves like the flu. Sweden will soon change their tune when the ICU's become overwhelmed.



Sweden's problem is testing. They have been doing feck all! Why do you think their death rate is 8% of cases ?

They have not been doing feck all. They have almost twice the population we do and they got their first case the same time as us but have roughly the same amount of cases as we do.

duffman13

They've not updated there figures for 3 days, their own PM said they've made mistakes that need to be addressed and their death rate is twice ours most likely cause they aren't testing so skewing the mortality rate.

ILoveYourVibes

duffman13 wrote: »

They've not updated there figures for 3 days, their own PM said they've made mistakes that need to be addressed and their death rate is twice ours most likely cause they aren't testing so skewing the mortality rate.

Our govt is doing the same thing. They refuse to add the german no of positive tests of irish people to the daily tally.

STB.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They are testing.

They are even sending people self test kits to see if it works.

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They have not been doing feck all. They have almost twice the population we do and they got their first case the same time as us but have roughly the same amount of cases as we do.

They are ONLY testing people with severe respiratory symptoms or who belong to a risk group. This was introduced on 22 March.

They are leaving community infection and contact tracing alone. IE Not doing it unless you fall into one of those two categories above. They are pursuing a herd immunity approach!

That's why their death rate is 8% whilst Denmark's is 4% and Norway's 2% (who enforced restrictions before their first death)

So to go back to what you said which was "Swedens whole approach is testing." Please read up before you post inaccurate information.

Thanks!

ILoveYourVibes

STB. wrote: »

They are ONLY testing people with severe respiratory symptoms or who belong to a risk group. This was introduced on 22 March.

They are leaving community infection and contact tracing alone. IE Not doing it unless you fall into one of those two categories above. They are pursuing a herd immunity approach!

That's why their death rate is 8% whilst Denmark's is 4% and Norway's 2% (who enforced restrictions before their first death)

So to go back to what you said which was "Swedens whole approach is testing."

I stand corrected.

But my main point is ...lockdown isn't enough.

Gary kk

I was sure you were making different point

Danzy

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Our govt is doing the same thing. They refuse to add the german no of positive tests of irish people to the daily tally.

They add them to the total, no point in adding resolved cases to daily new cases.

Joe_ Public

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Sweden has 10k cases a population of 10 million and 900 deaths.

We have a populations of 6 million 10k cases and about 365 deaths

Their health system was ruled by the global health security index to be one of the most prepared countries for a pandemic though.

They ranked 7th overall.

The Global Health Index ranked the top 3 as USA, UK and the Netherlands. Not even sure Germany was in top 10. Think they might have to revise their criteria by the time all this is done.

biko

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They are testing.

They are even sending people self test kits to see if it works.

Since you provide no source I searched it myself, and assume you mean the 1000 tests sent to people in Stockholm by researchers to check for antibodies?

Two KTH Royal Institute of Technology professors have decided to post serological self-test kits to 1,000 random addresses in a bid to ascertain what percentage of metropolitan Stockholm’s 2.3 million inhabitants have gained immunity to the coronavirus.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200410/swedish-researchers-send-1000-self-test-kits-in-the-post-to-trace-spread-of-covid-19-antibodies-in-stockholm

duffman13

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Our govt is doing the same thing. They refuse to add the german no of positive tests of irish people to the daily tally.

You need to do a bit of reading because you are not well versed in either the Irish or Swedish response to testing.

All German tests are added to totals, for the last few days we've been getting two figures, one for current cases coming back and one for historical backlog that went to Germany. BOTH are add to the the overall total.

Sweden on the other hand, have/had a head in sand philosophy.

KiKi III

KiKi III wrote: »

They have twice our population but almost four times as many deaths as us so far.

We are going to have the same number of deaths as them, just stretched out over a much longer period. And we'll have a lot more deaths on top due to the destruction of our economy.
Now they are saying we need to stay in lockdown for all of 2020. This just isn't realistic or viable.

Gary kk

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We are going to have the same number of deaths as them, just stretched out over a much longer period. And we'll have a lot more deaths on top due to the destruction of our economy.
Now they are saying we need to stay in lockdown for all of 2020. This just isn't realistic or viable.

Who said we have to stay in lockdown until the end of the year

sydthebeat

Gary kk wrote: »

Who said we have to stay in lockdown until the end of the year

No one.....

Two KTH Royal Institute of Technology professors have decided to post serological self-test kits to 1,000 random addresses in a bid to ascertain what percentage of metropolitan Stockholm’s 2.3 million inhabitants have gained immunity to the coronavirus.

In other words, an actual scientific approach to testing.

If Sweden's health system can deal with the surge, which it probably can as it's excellent - then their approach is perfectly reasonable.

I can't believe the amount of people whinging on social media about their tests. The tests only tell you if you were infected when you were tested - you could easily get infected the next day, and then what? You are going around spreading the virus like crazy because you "tested negative" 2 weeks ago.

The testing we have should only be used for contact tracing. If we have an antibody test, then we can use THAT reliably to see who is infected. All the rest is a waste of money and totally unscientific.

iamwhoiam

Deleted User wrote: »

We are going to have the same number of deaths as them, just stretched out over a much longer period. And we'll have a lot more deaths on top due to the destruction of our economy.
Now they are saying we need to stay in lockdown for all of 2020. This just isn't realistic or viable.

Who are the they

Joe_ Public

No one said it, but they might as well have with the way it's circulating around social media. What happens when you have garbage thats passed off as journalism.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

No one.....

First sentence of this article :

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/coronavirus-ireland-no-end-to-restrictions-until-vaccine-for-covid-19-is-found-39126119.html

Ireland is likely to remain in virtual lockdown for much of 2020 to fight the coronavirus, it has been starkly warned.

You are all so smart and know everything. I suppose this will be dismissed as "fake news".

It makes sense with our current approach - we have to "flatten the curve" to almost zero because of our poor health system. That means pushing this out for several months at least.

The reward for succeeding with a lockdown with this is a much longer period in lockdown - plus no immediate excess deaths from an overwhelmed health service. Just excess deaths later from the fallout.

Italy, Spain and the UK can reopen in a few weeks as they are fully infected anyway at this point.

What do people think is going to happen?

sydthebeat

Again.... This time answer the question

"who" has said that we will be in lockdown for the rest of 2020

Name and quote the person !!!

If you cannot, then do not post this crap again