CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

stephenjmcd

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-to-announce-extension-of-covid-19-restrictions-1.4225521?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Another 2 weeks as expected, possibly 3 until after May bank holiday and Gardai to have the current powers extended to cover this period. All to be announced tomorrow. Plans also have begun on the phased lifting of restrictions.

babybuilder

Wolf359f wrote: »

I honestly think every country went the test, test, test route, but as soon as they hit that steep curve, everything went out the window and all resources went to try save as many lives as possible.

Not every country. South Korea, Taiwan, China. Others closed borders and quarantined. Testing alone won't cut it. We need north south cooperation and identical approach. Agree about an antibody test. It's critical to getting some semblance of normality. I've reappraised my initial estimate that some restrictions could be lifted in end may/June, more like July August.

bekker

Wolf359f wrote: »

I don't know, just going by stats and of 1765 Healthcare workers, 27% should be hospitalized.... which yes, you would expect some deaths. Maybe they are younger, more fit/healthy so it's less.

It's certainly a good question for a journalist to ask. Hearing some are hospitalized and some in ICU would certainly be a shock for people to hear.

To make it simpler,

257 died in hospital, 230 admitted to CPU 257-230 = 27 died in hospital without being admitted to CPU.

263 total deaths, 257 died in hospital, 263-257 = 6 died without being admitted hospital.

There is no means of deriving healthcare workers hospitalized from the figures published today.

Larbre34

Expect 5 to 6 more weeks of it, according to my information.

GeorgeBailey

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-to-announce-extension-of-covid-19-restrictions-1.4225521?mode=amp&__twitter_impression=true

Another 2 weeks as expected, possibly 3 until after May bank holiday and Gardai to have the current powers extended to cover this period. All to be announced tomorrow. Plans also have begun on the phased lifting of restrictions.

I'd imagine they'll announce 2 weeks. What it'll end up being is anybody's guess.

Wolf359f

babybuilder wrote: »

Not every country. South Korea, Taiwan, China. Others closed borders and quarantined. Testing alone won't cut it. We need north south cooperation and identical approach. Agree about an antibody test. It's critical to getting some semblance of normality. I've reappraised my initial estimate that some restrictions could be lifted in end may/June, more like July August.

Sorry I meant all counties in the west who never experienced anything like this before. The countries you mentioned have had experience with SARS, so it's not new to them. The west adopted an attitude that it won't affect them.

Roger_007

Wolf359f wrote: »

I honestly think every country went the test, test, test route, but as soon as they hit that steep curve, everything went out the window and all resources went to try save as many lives as possible.

It is pointless to try and compare statistics between countries. Each country is doing the reporting in it’s own way. This is where the WHO should be more proactive in insisting that there is a standard method for doing this. These numbers are of interest to the public because very important decisions are based on them. The public should have confidence that what is being reported is accurate and consistent and not being ‘doctored’ for political reasons.

Richard Hillman

I have been keeping an eye on the numbers from Slovenia and Croatia throughout this whole thing.

Croatia have 1 million less people than Ireland and Slovenia a population of 2 million but have a border with Italy and Croatia is practically beside Italy. Both countries have large cultural connections with Italy and also have a lot of seasonal workers that work in the Italian Ski Resorts.

Combined their population is 6 million. 1 million more than Ireland. Yet their case numbers are
Croatia - Cases 1407, Deaths 20
Slovenia - Cases 1124, Deaths 41

Combine them and you have 2531 Cases and 61 deaths for a joint population of 1 million more than us and both are right beside Italy, with a lot of movement between the countries.

So why do we, a country of 5 million, an island on the edge of Europe have 6574 Cases and 263 Deaths.

Slovenia shut their borders to Italy on the 10th of March. A few days later, Croatia shut their borders to Slovenia. Austria then shut their borders to Slovenia.

Slovenia and Croatia have got this absolutely bang on. No road entries and flights are very, very limited.

We only started to man out border up north today (obviously its a contentious issue) and flights are still arriving willy nilly. The only thing that slowed the flights were the airlines.

AtomicHorror

Larbre34 wrote: »

Expect 5 to 6 more weeks of it, according to my information.

I'm just surprised that there seems to be a significant cohort on social media who believe we'll start lifting restrictions this weekend. I can only assume they don't know how to read graphs, and I guess that's a more common thing than I thought.

stephenjmcd

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

I'd imagine they'll announce 2 weeks. What it'll end up being is anybody's guess.

I'd guessed a phased lifting from after May bank holiday. Wouldn't make sense to lift them before then. Gradually lifting more throughout May and finally into June.

These form of restrictions wouldn't last long if they left them in place into May. They've been pretty open about that

Wolf359f

bekker wrote: »

To make it simpler,

257 died in hospital, 230 admitted to CPU 257-230 = 27 died in hospital without being admitted to CPU.

263 total deaths, 257 died in hospital, 263-257 = 6 died without being admitted hospital.

There is no means of deriving healthcare workers hospitalized from the figures published today.

There is actually a figure of people who died outside of hospital, I thought it was about 12%, I could be wrong. But yes, it's impossible to know how many healthcare workers are hospitalized or in ICU.

easypazz

Larbre34 wrote: »

Expect 5 to 6 more weeks of it, according to my information.

There are a lot saying gradual ease late April through month of May.

speckle

bekker wrote: »

Can anyone fill in the ???



Taken form HSE table 'Hospital statistics'

might this help

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0409/1129667-covid-19-figures/

syngindub

Larbre34 wrote: »

Expect 5 to 6 more weeks of it, according to my information.

Are you for real ?

AtomicHorror

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I have been keeping an eye on the numbers from Slovenia and Croatia throughout this whole thing.

Croatia have 1 million less people than Ireland and Slovenia a population of 2 million but have a border with Italy and Croatia is practically beside Italy. Both countries have large cultural connections with Italy and also have a lot of seasonal workers that work in the Italian Ski Resorts.

Combined their population is 6 million. 1 million more than Ireland. Yet their case numbers are
Croatia - Cases 1407, Deaths 20
Slovenia - Cases 1124, Deaths 41

Combine them and you have 2531 Cases and 61 deaths for a joint population of 1 million more than us and both are right beside Italy, with a lot of movement between the countries.

So why do we, a country of 5 million, an island on the edge of Europe have 6574 Cases and 263 Deaths.

Slovenia shut their borders to Italy on the 10th of March. A few days later, Croatia shut their borders to Slovenia. Austria then shut their borders to Slovenia.

Slovenia and Croatia have got this absolutely bang on. No road entries and flights are very, very limited.

We only started to man out border up north today (obviously its a contentious issue) and flights are still arriving willy nilly. The only thing that slowed the flights were the airlines.

Well, part of it may be testing rates. Ireland is currently testing at a rate of about 10,000 tests per million people. Croatia is about 3,300/mil. Slovenia's doing more though, about 15,000/mil, albeit with a population less than half of ours.

BanditLuke

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I have been keeping an eye on the numbers from Slovenia and Croatia throughout this whole thing.

Croatia have 1 million less people than Ireland and Slovenia a population of 2 million but have a border with Italy and Croatia is practically beside Italy. Both countries have large cultural connections with Italy and also have a lot of seasonal workers that work in the Italian Ski Resorts.

Combined their population is 6 million. 1 million more than Ireland. Yet their case numbers are
Croatia - Cases 1407, Deaths 20
Slovenia - Cases 1124, Deaths 41

Combine them and you have 2531 Cases and 61 deaths for a joint population of 1 million more than us and both are right beside Italy, with a lot of movement between the countries.

So why do we, a country of 5 million, an island on the edge of Europe have 6574 Cases and 263 Deaths.

Slovenia shut their borders to Italy on the 10th of March. A few days later, Croatia shut their borders to Slovenia. Austria then shut their borders to Slovenia.

Slovenia and Croatia have got this absolutely bang on. No road entries and flights are very, very limited.

We only started to man out border up north today (obviously its a contentious issue) and flights are still arriving willy nilly. The only thing that slowed the flights were the airlines.

People who called for the borders to be shut here around the start of March where called racists, weirdos, anti open borders and all other kinds of sh1t.

I said it then and I'll repeat it now, that mistake will cost us dearly in fact we might not have seen the level of restrictions we have now and may have saved many businesses from going to the wall not to mention the amount of lives saved.

But yeah racism etc...

easypazz

syngindub wrote: »

Are you for real ?

That is about right. Gradual easing through May.

Sky said tonight Whitehall is planning their process, they just won't be releasing it yet.

speckle

bekker wrote: »

On the basis of that table 27 have died in hospital without being admitted to ICU, and 6 have died without being admitted to hospital.

yeh I wanted to know where the 6 died because it wasnt a hospital or nursing home

easypazz

BanditLuke wrote: »

People who called for the borders to be shut here around the start of March where called racists, weirdos, anti open borders and all other kinds of sh1t.

I said it then and I'll repeat it now, that mistake will cost us dearly in fact we might not have seen the level of restrictions we have now and may have saved many businesses from going to the wall not to mention the amount of lives saved.

But yeah racism etc...

It takes time to repatriate everybody, all the people to get home from Cheltenham, Spain, Italy etc., this took time.

You can't just dump Irish families in Tenerife, for example.

speckle

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Well for starters, they've been reassigning the public sector to contact tracing and COVID-related work. Health department, but also people from completely unrelated offices- arts, libraries, immigration.

I would suggest lecturers in ucd ucc maynooth etc who have studied antropology or ethnology. They have the needed skills

alwald

What is a gradual ease? Does it mean opening some shops and allowing more people to go to work? If yes then how social distancing will apply to the shops, workplaces and public transport??

babybuilder

easypazz wrote: »

That is about right. Gradual easing through May.

Sky said tonight Whitehall is planning their process, they just won't be releasing it yet.[/QUOTE
Gradual easing through month of May gives the impression, a false one, that everything will be hunky dory by June.
Not a hope. Wishful thinking on their part.

BanditLuke

easypazz wrote: »

There are a lot saying gradual ease late April through month of May.

No chance. They just doing this to prevent widespread unrest. We in this for the long term.

Best case is 6 weeks more

Worst case is 12 weeks but even that depends on many things going our way.

Wolf359f

speckle wrote: »

yeh I wanted to know where the 6 died because it wasnt a hospital or nursing home

We do include anyone who tests positive with Covid before or after death into the stats. Could be natural causes, heart attack or anything.
I assume it's a notified disease, so has to be added to the death cert.

GeorgeBailey

Larbre34 wrote: »

Expect 5 to 6 more weeks of it, according to my information.

My information says your information is made up. Who to believe.

easypazz

babybuilder wrote: »

easypazz wrote: »

That is about right. Gradual easing through May.

Sky said tonight Whitehall is planning their process, they just won't be releasing it yet.[/QUOTE
Gradual easing through month of May gives the impression, a false one, that everything will be hunky dory by June.
Not a hope. Wishful thinking on their part.

What are you predicting, lockdown until at least July?

AtomicHorror

BanditLuke wrote: »

People who called for the borders to be shut here around the start of March where called racists, weirdos, anti open borders and all other kinds of sh1t.

I just remember them being called people who were ignoring the advice of the WHO, EU and the CMO.

I think we'll find in time that there were lots of mistakes made by experts and people in power through this whole process, but please let's not pretend that the the random angry reactionaries were on to some common-sense truth which will be vindicated.

There will be lots of idiots who got something right by blind luck. That does not mean we should listen to the idiots next time.

BanditLuke

easypazz wrote: »

It takes time to repatriate everybody, all the people to get home from Cheltenham, Spain, Italy etc., this took time.

You can't just dump Irish families in Tenerife, for example.

Why not? They made their bed. It was obvious to anyone with an IQ higher than a goldfish we where in the verge of a worldwide pandemic not seen in over 100 years. Government should have been warning people from mid February to not travel and return home.

Maestro85

BanditLuke wrote: »

No chance. They just doing this to prevent widespread unrest. We in this for the long term.

Best case is 6 weeks more

Worst case is 12 weeks but even that depends on many things going our way.

12 more weeks and I am going to look like cousin IT from the Addams family.

easypazz

BanditLuke wrote: »

No chance. They just doing this to prevent widespread unrest. We in this for the long term.

Best case is 6 weeks more

Worst case is 12 weeks but even that depends on many things going our way.

6 weeks is earlier than I am saying.