COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Panrich

Dionaibh wrote: »

Masks haven't exactly been a success in Spain or in France. Cases are through the roof in both. Now I think cases are meaningless, but if we're going to base the effectiveness of masks on falling cases then they are quite clearly not working in Spain and France. They've done nothing to stop the rise in cases in the Philippines either.

Masks won’t make up for people who ignore the dangers but they certainly are more effective than nothing for times when we have to be among others.

I see it now that people have got so much more lackadaisical in general this time around.

Gangs of school kids wandering around in big groups and nobody bats an eyelid. No more queueing to get into shops. It’s a free for all. The more we relax on social distancing the more important masks are but they won’t protect the careless.

Dionaibh

Panrich wrote: »

Masks won’t make up for people who ignore the dangers but they certainly are more effective than nothing for times when we have to be among others.

I see it now that people have got so much more lackadaisical in general this time around.

Gangs of school kids wandering around in big groups and nobody bats an eyelid. No more queueing to get into shops. It’s a free for all. The more we relax on social distancing the more important masks are but they won’t protect the careless.

But in the Philippines people are extremely law abiding and deferential to authority. Everyone has been wearing them since early April. No one dares not wear a mask. They even have to wear a visor in addition to the mask on public transport. And they still have extremely high case numbers. I think they're clearly useless based on France, Spain, and the Philippines, but people have persuaded themselves that they're beneficial so they're not going anywhere.

Marhay70

Dionaibh wrote: »

Masks haven't exactly been a success in Spain or in France. Cases are through the roof in both. Now I think cases are meaningless, but if we're going to base the effectiveness of masks on falling cases then they are quite clearly not working in Spain and France. They've done nothing to stop the rise in cases in the Philippines either.

That doesn't mean they're not effective. it has never been claimed that masks are the solution rather that they are part of the solution. Probably the figures would be even worse without masks.
Common sense and education are big contributors to the fight, I witnessed a complete absence of both while stopped at the traffic lights at Cross Avenue/Mount Merrion Avenue last week. Three young girls 15/16 were standing, chatting, on the corner and passing a can of Coke or something similar around between them. Ironically all were wearing masks under their chins so obviously were compliant and observant of the precautions while inside the school but once outside, all that went out the window. God only knows how many people those three were in contact with on their way home.

Dionaibh

Marhay70 wrote: »

That doesn't mean they're not effective. it has never been claimed that masks are the solution rather that they are part of the solution. Probably the figures would be even worse without masks.
Common sense and education are big contributors to the fight, I witnessed a complete absence of both while stopped at the traffic lights at Cross Avenue/Mount Merrion Avenue last week. Three young girls 15/16 were standing, chatting, on the corner and passing a can of Coke or something similar around between them. Ironically all were wearing masks under their chins so obviously were compliant and observant of the precautions while inside the school but once outside, all that went out the window. God only knows how many people those three were in contact with on their way home.

Sweden, Norway and Finland don't bother with the things and have hardly any cases. Spain, France and the Philippines are obsessed with them and their case numbers are through the roof.

irishgeo

Dionaibh wrote: »

Sweden, Norway and Finland don't bother with the things and have hardly any cases. Spain, France and the Philippines are obsessed with them and their case numbers are through the roof.

Masks aren't vworn in people's houses which is where the majority of the cases are being picked up.

It's obvious the GAA celebrations and student parties have led to the huge increase in numbers.

hmmm

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

For those following the vaccines, is it true that a vaccine isn't going to give immunity?

We won't know what level of immunity is achievable until the completion of Phase 3 testing.

This is a good article on the types of potential immunity we are likely to see:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/

Dionaibh

irishgeo wrote: »

Masks aren't vworn in people's houses which is where the majority of the cases are being picked up.

It's obvious the GAA celebrations and student parties have led to the huge increase in numbers.

But the test is so sensitive it picks up dead virus fragments. It's crazy.

So why are masks being worn everywhere in the countries I mentioned if the problem is people's homes?

Le Bruise

Why has the vaccines/treatments thread turned into a mask debate?

dexter647

I'm fairly sure there's a mask thread out there somewhere so can we please keep this thread for vaccines and treatments please:)

Ten of Swords

There has been enough mask talk in this thread, there was a mod note yesterday about this. Talk about masks here

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058111744

Thierry12

hmmm wrote: »

We won't know what level of immunity is achievable until the completion of Phase 3 testing.

This is a good article on the types of potential immunity we are likely to see:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/

Good article

Sterilising immunity unlikely, out the question one expert said

Possible to infect others because of that non sterilising immunity ( primates early phases were infectious )

Not landing in hospital very likely, pretty much crisis over which we all want

Strangely some of those experts are even implying a herd immunity situation in the functional section

You'll never get as sick as you were the first time would be nice

Are any of these trials going to test immunity theory and deliberately infect trialists?

Suppose with Covid rampant now what's the point, they'll encounter it anyways.

Gael23

Panrich wrote: »

Masks won’t make up for people who ignore the dangers but they certainly are more effective than nothing for times when we have to be among others.

I see it now that people have got so much more lackadaisical in general this time around.

Gangs of school kids wandering around in big groups and nobody bats an eyelid. No more queueing to get into shops. It’s a free for all. The more we relax on social distancing the more important masks are but they won’t protect the careless.

I think that’s largely because the Armageddon of dead bodies in makeshift morgues we were prepared for last time didn’t happen. Also people are seeing others make good recoveries off they do contract it

jackboy

Thierry12 wrote: »

Good article

Sterilising immunity unlikely, out the question one expert said

Possible to infect others because of that non sterilising immunity ( primates early phases were infectious )

Not landing in hospital very likely, pretty much crisis over which we all want

I wouldn’t be so sure. Everything we are doing is to protect those who are in very bad health. A vaccine that reduces severity may not prevent huge amounts of people dying. I’m pretty sure none of the vaccine trials include the type of people who will really need the vaccine. So, the real trial will be the live experiment of releasing the vaccine.

Thierry12

jackboy wrote: »

I wouldn’t be so sure. Everything we are doing is to protect those who are in very bad health. A vaccine that reduces severity may not prevent huge amounts of people dying. I’m pretty sure none of the vaccine trials include the type of people who will really need the vaccine. So, the real trial will be the live experiment of releasing the vaccine.

True

They refused Aids and immune compromised in many if these trials

We will know soon enough

Its all gone very quiet, not much amazing results/hype lately from Oxford etc

MerlinSouthDub

Thierry12 wrote: »

True

They refused Aids and immune compromised in many if these trials

We will know soon enough

Its all gone very quiet, not much amazing results/hype lately from Oxford etc

It's actually a good sign that results are taking longer to come. The more effective the vaccine is, the longer it will take to get results (all other things being equal)

charlie14

Dionaibh wrote: »

Sweden, Norway and Finland don't bother with the things and have hardly any cases. Spain, France and the Philippines are obsessed with them and their case numbers are through the roof.

I`m not sure Sweden is a great comparison to the likes of Norway and Finland. Per Capita Sweden has had a multiple of 12 times the number of Covid-19 deaths of Norway and 9 times that of Finland.



But aside from that,Sweden had 562 new cases Wednesday, 855 Thursday and 919 Friday.
On 28th September the positive rate for test results in Stockholm, (the area where most of their hope of acquiring herd immunity was based with it being their epicenter of infections) was 4.1%.

Sconsey

jackboy wrote: »

I wouldn’t be so sure. Everything we are doing is to protect those who are in very bad health. A vaccine that reduces severity may not prevent huge amounts of people dying. I’m pretty sure none of the vaccine trials include the type of people who will really need the vaccine. So, the real trial will be the live experiment of releasing the vaccine.

Phase three trials include at risk groups.

jackboy

Sconsey wrote: »

Phase three trials include at risk groups.

Including the elderly and cancer patients etc?

Sconsey

jackboy wrote: »

Including the elderly and cancer patients etc?

Yes to elderly, don't know about cancer patients.

jackboy

Sconsey wrote: »

Yes to elderly, don't know about cancer patients.

Well the elderly part is most important. It needs to give significant protection to them or there will still be high levels of deaths.

eddie73

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

It's actually a good sign that results are taking longer to come. The more effective the vaccine is, the longer it will take to get results (all other things being equal)

I would agree with this, but also extend this point.

The fastest ever vaccine made was 4.5 years. For mumps.

I would not be the first person to get a vaccine that took a year to make, regardless of how many were in the trials.

kwestfan08

eddie73 wrote: »

I would agree with this, but also extend this point.

The fastest ever vaccine made was 4.5 years. For mumps.

I would not be the first person to get a vaccine that took a year to make, regardless of how many were in the trials.

Was the swine flu vaccine not less than a year? I remember getting it at the time back in 09 or whenever it was but maybe it was already an established one.

irishgeo

kwestfan08 wrote: »

Was the swine flu vaccine not less than a year? I remember getting it at the time back in 09 or whenever it was but maybe it was already an established one.

the swine flu one had issues.

Hmmzis

Thierry12 wrote: »

Good article

Sterilising immunity unlikely, out the question one expert said

Possible to infect others because of that non sterilising immunity ( primates early phases were infectious )

Not landing in hospital very likely, pretty much crisis over which we all want

Strangely some of those experts are even implying a herd immunity situation in the functional section

You'll never get as sick as you were the first time would be nice

Are any of these trials going to test immunity theory and deliberately infect trialists?

Suppose with Covid rampant now what's the point, they'll encounter it anyways.

Agreed, it's an excellent article. Though Mr. Kramer had an opining view on the impossibility of sterilizing protection.
Just to add, not all the NHPs had detectable virus in nasal swabs in the challenge trials.

Novavax (0): https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.18.256578v1

Jansen/J&J (1 of 6, very low levels)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2607-z (PDF Figure 4)

To know for sure we'll just have to wait for the phase 3 readouts, but to completelly dismiss full protection might be just a tad too premature.

That said, functional protection is all we would need for any practical aspects of living our lives, even partial would be ok, just would take longer to ditch those masks.

P.S. To think we're arguing semantics between full and functional protection of phase 3 vaccine candidates while the virus itself is barely a year old. Incredible pace.

Hmmzis

Sconsey wrote: »

Yes to elderly, don't know about cancer patients.

HIV patients as well, SA arm of AZ/Oxford has quite a few enrolled. Not sure about the others.

Dionaibh

One hears a lot about vaccines, but is there any word on a treatment / cure? I read articles about drugs being developed that could "crush the virus", but you don't hear much about them.

Hmmzis

Dionaibh wrote: »

One hears a lot about vaccines, but is there any word on a treatment / cure? I read articles about drugs being developed that could "crush the virus", but you don't hear much about them.

Yes, 5-6 pages back or more at this point.

kwestfan08

irishgeo wrote: »

the swine flu one had issues.

No doubt every vaccine does, but am I right in thinking it was made in less than a year?

Apogee

Interesting application of pooled saliva testing at a US university:
http://dailyorange.com/2020/10/pooled-saliva-testing-allows-su-overcome-national-rapid-test-shortage/


Does anyone understand the seeming reluctance to adopt saliva testing in Ireland, given its obvious advantages?

is_that_so

Apogee wrote: »

Interesting application of pooled saliva testing at a US university:
http://dailyorange.com/2020/10/pooled-saliva-testing-allows-su-overcome-national-rapid-test-shortage/


Does anyone understand the seeming reluctance to adopt saliva testing in Ireland, given its obvious advantages?

DeGascun is the man to ask about that. He's been asked about a variety of tests and usually points to their accuracy as an issue.