Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

drunkmonkey

Strazdas wrote: »

Which is what will happen with Covid 19 I imagine. It will become known as a nasty flu virus strain but with a low mortality rate relative to the general population.

That's some imagination you got there.

Away With The Fairies

owlbethere wrote: »

Hopefully all the contact tracing was caught early and they are all in isolation.

The rest of us follow the guidelines, hand hygiene, containing coughs sneezing, self isolate when feeling sick

No touching face, eyes, nose and mouth.

viewfromtheuk

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

That mortality rate is based on known cases though. What about people that had it and cleared it without being detected? That means the mortality rate will be much lower.

Ok then , lets reduce the mortality rate by 50% to 1.7%
70% infection rate = 57,500 dead
20% infection rate = 16,500 dead
Still horrific!

nocoverart

babybuilder wrote: »

I'm signing out for a couple of weeks. There will be an emergency in dealing with this epidemic. It's important that people prepare. Warnings from reputable international experts have indicated the severity of this disease. Those who wish to ignore the scientific literature can do so, it's a free country. "Good night and good luck!"

Ah come back! you can’t catch it online.

Away With The Fairies

What happens if we have to go into a lockdown situation and can't work?

Rent and bills still have to be paid.

Xertz

Why’s it claptrap?

We probably have the worst A&E crisis in any part of the EU, yet we are certainly on a GNI or GDP per capita basis one of the wealthiest parts of the EU or the world. It’s utterly inexcusable and we have nobody to blame for this other than ourselves.

There’s no point in kidding ourselves. If this turns into a situation where there are large numbers of people needing treatment in A&E contexts it’s just not going to cope at all. It’s unable to cope even with the normal loads presented by winter flu season and anyone who’s had any interaction with an emergency department in Ireland in recent years will attest to that. It’s grossly under resourced and there simply hasn’t been enough done.

If the fallout of this is a large number of deaths, that’s precisely what abysmal health policies gets you and that’s how dangerous they are. We’ve left ourselves extremely vulnerable and done so when we had the resources not to be.

Political or not, that’s where are and this will very likely highlight why.

Pretending it’s not an issue or shutting down debate on it is also pointless. We’re not going to solve this stuff by pretending the system is wonderful or by wringing our hands and hoping it gets better. We’ve done that for years.

I don’t care who you voted for, but we need to demand this system is fixed. It’s extremely dangerous to have a health system that’s always teetering on the brink. It’s vital infrastructure that protects in a situation like this against both human and economic fallout.

What we’ve been doing is like driving with no insurance. It’s a short term saving until you have an accident.

spookwoman

Unearthly wrote: »

Local Italian media reporting that hundreds trying to board trains to leave the red zones before lockdown commences

https://milano.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/03/08/news/coronavirus_la_lombardia_sara_zona_rossa_fuga_da_milano_in_treno_e_in_auto-250603359/

Imagine if they have to do the same thing in France.. not a hope in hell of them keeping people in

Call Me Jimmy

fritzelly wrote: »

They have gone from 143 new (30 dead) to 99 new (28 dead) to 44 new (27 dead) the past 3 days

I find it very hard to believe new cases have dropped that drastically - in two and half weeks they have gone from circa 2000 cases per day to a few dozen
Another few days and Ireland will be reporting more new cases per day than them

Even BNO don't bother reporting their numbers anymore

It was the most perfectly linear decline since the standing meeting Feb 3rd. They may have thrown in a couple days of slight deviations but yea, no.

viewfromtheuk

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The US is fúcked. Sadly. A silver lining is that it might mean Trump is dumped.

Open borders Democrats will be much better at preventing the spread of the virus!

Mervyn Skidmore

viewfromtheuk wrote: »

Ok then , lets reduce the mortality rate by 50% to 1.7%
70% infection rate = 57,500 dead
20% infection rate = 16,500 dead
Still horrific!

Yes it is. Personally my opinion on the whole thing is as follows. The virus is here. There will be widespread distribution of the virus and unfortunately many at risk people will die. Therefore we must adhere to the guidelines issued to reduce the amount of infections.

tobefrank321

Strazdas wrote: »

That's not how AIDS was being reported at the time. People thought they could contract it by even minimal contact with someone's saliva or blood, even by kissing someone with the HIV virus. There was talk of millions dying from it (hello Corona).

Millions did die from AIDs mostly in the 3rd world.

viewfromtheuk

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Your model reaches every person in the entire world in 15 days.

We shall all agree to meet here on the 23 March to see who was correct.

Quantum Erasure

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

You don't catch AIDS.

you acquire it

ldy4mxonucwsq6

jam_mac_jam wrote: »

I find AIDs fairly scary but that's probably showing my age and how dangerous it was considered and reported.

I still find it very frightening but I do think it's an age thing.

People in their 20s now are probably not as worried about it. There's so much more information now and then there's the likes of protection, prep or retroviral treatment that can give undetectable viral loads.

Much better prognosis nowadays for HIV than there was in the 80s and 90s.

I just remember the likes of David Kirby and I think things like that stick in your mind.

wakka12

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Millions did die from AIDs mostly in the 3rd world.

Hundreds of thousands still die from AIDS from every year

nocoverart

Was always into Post Apocalyptic sh1t like the “28” Films and the early seasons of The Walking Dead, big fan of music Like Godspeed You! Black Emperor which conjures up feelings of dread. Nope! Taylor Swift and Disney movies for me from now on.

drunkmonkey

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What happens if we have to go into a lockdown situation and can't work?

Rent and bills still have to be paid.

Its probably a good time to take out a loan if your going to stuggle without a few paychecks, 40% of the country will. You can always give it back if you don't use it.
I'm more concerned about when people get desperate and law and order breaks down.

Mervyn Skidmore

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

you acquire it

HIV is the virus, if untreated it can lead to AIDS.

viewfromtheuk

laurah591 wrote: »

Unfortunately, a cluster of Spanish cases are linked to a funeral for one of Spain's first cases; This is a really sad notion. Consider Italy today, so many fatalities

Think about it for a second, at a funeral everyone is comforting each other, plenty of hugs, hand shakes and physical contact.
Exactly the same behavior that drunk people undertake, and everyone is going to be drunk on Paddy's day, sure what could go wrong!
Lets have a parade and a massive nation wide piss up!

ITman88

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Its probably a good time to take out a loan if your going to stuggle without a few paychecks, 40% of the country will. You can always give it back if you don't use it.
I'm more concerned about when people get desperate and law and order breaks down.

Aw and order will break down before your previous point

Atlantic Dawn

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What happens if we have to go into a lockdown situation and can't work?

Rent and bills still have to be paid.

Most likely rationing supplied by Irish Army.

sunshinew

viewfromtheuk wrote: »

I read in China that there are no Funerals , the bodies are taken away and cremated ASAP

I finding these reports so hard to deal with.

My father passed away a few months back. We had a very complicated relationship but I will always remember the feel of holding his clammy hand and the look of confusion, fear and regret on his face as he faced the end of his life. I've been going to counselling to deal with it as the memory seems to cut me in two whenever my mind goes there.

Irish people do funerals well. I think the ritual of it can help with the grieving process, and the fact as a community our funerals tend to be large, showing respect for the deceased and support for those bereaved. I can't imagine how horrendously awful it would be to not have that opportunity to say goodbye, to not be able to be there for somebody you love as they face the unknown, and then having a rushed secret burial with nobody coming to support you, no stories or eulogies celebrating their life. The trauma of it scares me. I'm terrified for my mother's health right now.

All these reports spouting figures and estimates... They all have real people behind them.

ITman88

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Most likely rationing supplied by Irish Army.

Or we will revert back to famine times where everyone in this thread will perish

CinemaGuy45

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Millions did die from AIDs mostly in the 3rd world.

Aids does not spread from coughing or sneezing.

People are not going to get Aids in the supermarket or at work.

Xertz

The comparison with HIV is, to be quite honest, not very helpful. HIV is effectively a chronic illness that progresses very slowly and is, thankfully, now rather well managed in the developed world and does not present a huge load on emergency systems. It’s also relatively much more difficult to pick up, and that’s not to in anyway understate the risk.

COVID 19 is the complete opposite. It’s highly contagious and spreads by droplet infection much like a common cold and, for percentage of those who pick it up has dramatic symptoms that happen quite rapidly and, as yet, there’s no medical treatment for it beyond symptom management. Antivirals are being trialled and tested but we are still not near a magic bullet solution to deal with it and a vaccine is still not imminent either.

The former runs the risk of a manageable emoidemic, the later runs the risk of a very difficult to contain pandemic.

ITman88

sunshinew wrote: »

I finding these reports so hard to deal with.

My father passed away a few months back. We had a very complicated relationship but I will always remember the feel of holding his clammy hand and the look of confusion, fear and regret on his face as he faced the end of his life. I've been going to counselling to deal with it as the memory seems to cut me in two whenever my mind goes there.

Irish people do funerals well. I think the ritual of it can help with the grieving process, and the fact as a community our funerals tend to be large, showing respect for the deceased and support for those bereaved. I can't imagine how horrendously awful it would be to not have that opportunity to say goodbye, to not be able to be there for somebody you love as they face the unknown, and then having a rushed secret burial with nobody coming to support you, no stories or eulogies celebrating their life. The trauma of it scares me. I'm terrified for my mother's health right now.

All these reports spouting figures and estimates... They all have real people behind them.

I’m sorry what happened with your dad.
We don’t know whatever what happened in China before or after the virus, the previous poster you quoted doesn’t either, what we need know is unity

fritzelly

moeblogs wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI

Great video - "if facts alarm you, the problem isn't with the facts" is what I will take away from that

viewfromtheuk

maddog wrote: »

This annoys me, mortality rate is based on a functional health service.... 2200 infections fills all our icu beds! The mortality rate would be in the high 30 % with a non functioning health service.
This is not the flu, 2000 on trolleys across our hospital’s yesterday.

So taking your 30% mortality rate
70% infection rate = 1,1014,300 dead
20% infection rate = 289,800 dead

That would be Mad Max levels of social collapse

Still waters

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

What happens if we have to go into a lockdown situation and can't work?

Rent and bills still have to be paid.

This is where the banks step in and say thanks for the bail out guys, everyone gets 1 year free from mortgage payments and we pay your esb

ldy4mxonucwsq6

Xertz wrote: »

The comparison with HIV is, to be quite honest, not very helpful. HIV is effectively a chronic illness that progresses very slowly and is, thankfully, now rather well managed in the developed world and does not present a huge load on emergency systems. It’s also relatively much more difficult to pick up, and that’s not to in anyway understate the risk.

COVID 19 is the complete opposite. It’s highly contagious and spreads by droplet infection much like a common cold and, for percentage of those who pick it up has dramatic symptoms that happen quite rapidly and, as yet, there’s no medical treatment for it beyond symptom management. Antivirals are being trialled and tested but we are still not near a magic bullet solution to deal with it and a vaccine is still not imminent either.

The former runs the risk of a manageable emoidemic, the later runs the risk of a very difficult to contain pandemic.

It's more the psychological comparison rather than comparing the actual viruses themselves, a lot of unknowns when AIDS epidemic began. I think the unknown paired with an invisible threat is what scares people.